Monday, April 24, 2023

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Regional Bank/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In-Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.2 +2.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .49%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.9 -.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.06 +.64%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 -.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.6 +1.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +13.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .96 +5.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 -9.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.1 -.29%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.79 +.41%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 403.0 -20
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.64 +.28% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 350.64 -.48%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.1 +.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 243.76 +1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.32%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 23.75 basis points +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 692.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.99% -6.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.39%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.9 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.3 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.6 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 -.4 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.93 unch.:  Growth Rate +1.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.01 -6.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.36 -8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -63.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.48% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.17% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 67.9%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 58.5%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +116 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +129 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives -1.7% 2) Steel -1.6% 3) Software -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FOXA, FOX, JD, T, SPB, GH, INTA, UPWK, JKS, TWLO, EGBN, S, TMDX, HTHT, LMND, FSLR, NRIX, PDD, HFWA, VIPS, PERI, HPK, CARR, NSP, BJRI, STLA, AMPH, COIN, SMCI, AI and FGEN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GETY 2) FOXA 3) RILY 4) XLC 5) THO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FOXA 2) BBBY 3) AI 4) SQM 5) DISH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • Oil Service +2.0% 2) Energy +1.3% 3) Shipping +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • IDYA, FRC and ALB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FGEN 2) VIPS 3) DRS 4) ASX 5) PE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IDYA 2) INAB 3) MDT 4) AMNF 5) OOMA

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (MMM)/1.60
  • (ABB)/.47
  • (ADM)/1.78
  • (BIIB)/3.29
  • (GLW)/.39
  • (DHR)/2.26
  • (DOW)/.37
  • (FISV)/1.56
  • (GE)/.14
  • (HAL)/.67
  • (JBLU)/-.38
  • (KMB)/1.32
  • (LH)/3.96
  • (MCD)/2.34
  • (NEE)/.73
  • (NVS)/1.54
  • (NTRS)/1.52
  • (PCAR)/1.82
  • (PEP)/1.39
  • (PII)/1.71
  • (PHM)/1.82
  • (RTX)/1.13
  • (SHW)/1.79
  • (THC)/1.15
  • (UPS)/2.21
  • (VZ)/1.19
After the Close: 
  • (GOOG)/1.07
  • (BXP)/1.69
  • (BYD)/1.54
  • (CMG)/8.95
  • (CB)/4.48
  • (ILMN)/.03
  • (JNPR)/.43
  • (MANH)/.65
  • (MSFT)/2.23
  • (PACW)/.57
  • (TXN)/1.81
  • (V)/1.99

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST
  • Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity for April.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for February is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.2% gain in January. 
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for February is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.43% decline in January.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for March are estimated to fall to 633K versus 640K in February.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 104.0 versus 104.2 in March.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is estimated to fall to -8 versus -5 in March.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 2Y T-Note auction and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -17.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +2.1
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 46.8% of Issues Advancing, 49.6% Declining
  • 39 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 44.5%(+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.6 -1.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,821.4 -.06%
  • 1-Day Vix 9.3 -29.8%
  • Vix 17.4 +3.5% 
  • Total Put/Call .93 +4.4%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.23 +14.9%

Sunday, April 23, 2023

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 +.75 basis point
  • China Sovereign CDS 72.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.8 +.9%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .01 -4.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +1.0%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, April 22, 2023

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (NVDA), (QCOM), (MU), (AMBA), (EXPE) and (TJX).

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:  
MarketWatch.com:  
NewsMax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times: 
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com: