Monday, June 05, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.25 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.0 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.72%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +.7%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -14.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 +.22%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Growth Worries, Global Bank Regulation Concerns, Regional Bank/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 +1.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .55%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.3 +2.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.1 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 -.31%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.5 +3.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 +4.1%
  • NYSE Arms .92 +18.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -.02%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.65 +.98%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 417.0 +41.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.5 +.87% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 306.7 -.44%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 176.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.1 -2.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 222.6 -2.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.97 +.21%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 14.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 177.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 723.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.31% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 162.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.5 euros/megawatt-hour  +20.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.2 -10.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.2 -9.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.2 +.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.07 +.26:  Growth Rate +2.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 201.90 -3.72: Growth Rate +32.7% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 36.9 +2.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.51 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -80.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.96% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.5%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.7%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education +3.1% 2) Regional Banks -2.1% 3) Semis -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • URBN, DIOD, DELL, HPQ, CNHI, MMM, BX, GDDY, IRBT, EURN, HWC, WERN, S, CRDO, SIG, SNBR, NTCT, DG, MKTX, CHDN, CBRL, BPMC, SCVL, RCUS, CHRW, CPNG, FRO, ASO, BZ, ENVX, PETS, RIOT, MSTR, GLOB, VSCO, DAVA, ZUMZ, COIN, SDA and EPAM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IOT 2) IAU 3) GTLB 4) SABR 5) ASO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EPAM 2) MSTR 3) LPSN 4) TGT 5) EL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Healthcare Providers +.8% 2) AI/Robotics +.7% 3) Software .5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AMED, DBRG, NEWT, IOT, CGEM, SDGR, BOWL, DOCS, OPCH, PLTR, PATH, BASE, PANW, CC, APAM and PECO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DOCS 2) GTLB 3) IOT 4) OPCH 5) EWJ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PANW 2) PLTR 3) CIR 4) BOWL 5) ETRN

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABM)/.86
  • (ASO)/1.65
  • (CIEN)/.61
  • (CBRL)/1.34
  • (GIII)/-.10
  • (SJM)/2.41
  • (THO)/1.08
After the Close: 
  • (CASY)/1.65
  • (PLAY)/1.26
  • (SFIX)/-.31

Economic Releases 

  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Factory Orders report, weekly US retail sales report, Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, TD Cowen Future Consumer Conference, RBC Energy/Power/Infra Conference, Baird Consumer Tech/Services Conference, (BWA) investor day, the William Blair Growth Stock Conference, UBS Industrials/Transport Conference, (FHN) Investor Day and the BofA Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -6.4% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.6 +.7
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 34.3% of Issues Advancing, 62.8% Declining
  • 36 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
  • 453%(-2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.6 +3.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,445.5 +.63%
  • 1-Day Vix 9.0 -24.5%
  • Vix 14.9 +2.3% 
  • Total Put/Call .80 +8.1%
  • TRIN/Arms .80 +2.6%

Sunday, June 04, 2023

Monday Watch

Night Trading

  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.75 -5.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign CDS 60.75 -4.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 -.27%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.6 +1.6%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .18 -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +.5%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday, June 02, 2023

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +14.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.9 -1.4
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 83.3% of Issues Advancing, 14.6% Declining
  • 62 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 44.4%(+9.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +6.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.0 +5.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,351.5 -.52%
  • 1-Day Vix 10.7 -23.5%
  • Vix 14.8 -5.6% 
  • Total Put/Call .70 -19.5%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.10 +10.0%

Thursday, June 01, 2023

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.0 +2.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.31%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.1 +1.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.