Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .62%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.4 +.92%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.68 +.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.79 -.68%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.0 -4.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -11.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +18.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.46 -2.25%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 318.68 -1.22%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 337.0 -9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.35 -.07% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 263.4 -.83%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.7 -.35%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.94 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.89 +.36%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.75 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 171.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 71.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.8 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.49% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.56%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.41 euros/megawatt-hour +10.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.0 -3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.4 +8.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(484 of 500 reporting) -6.1%  +1.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.51 +.51:  Growth Rate +8.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.96 +1.20: Growth Rate +46.5% +.7 percentage point, P/E 30.8 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .02 +8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -84.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.91% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 48.0%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.5%-5.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 46.5%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.5%-5.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +71 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -.3% 2) Insurance -.3% 3) Networking -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ABCM, TRMD, AMC and NVCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SGML 2) NVCR 3) BE 4) SGEN 5) IOT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AGIL 2) APLD 3) BTAI 4) IBRX 5) RAIN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Gold & Silver +2.3% 2) Computer Hardware +1.9% 3) Telecom +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HE, RPT, JBL, AEHR, INOD, HRMY, LMB, FL, BSX,MMM, FSLY, HNRG, XHR, SAVA, OFIX, AKRO, GPCR, OLLI, SGEN, PRO, ESAB, NUVA and DKS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HE 2) VTNR 3) BSX 4) GNS 5) XLB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GDC 2) LDWY 3) VFS 4) THRN 5) JBL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMWD)/2.30
• (BMO)/2.34
• (BBY)/1.06
• (BIG)/-4.11
• (DCI)/.78
• (SJM)/2.02

After the Close: 

• (AMBA)/-.21
• (BOX)/.35
• (HPE)/.47
• (HPQ)/.86
• (PVH)/1.75
  

Economic Releases  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in May.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for June is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.99% gain in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for July is estimated to fall to 9468K versus 9582K in June.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Aug. is estimated to fall to 116.0 versus 117.0 in July.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (DSGR) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The GFK Consumer Confidence report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports and the Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communications Infra Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -27.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.1 -.7
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 76.1% of Issues Advancing, 21.2% Declining
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 46.3%(+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 +6.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.6 +1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,388.7 -.01%
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 -22.8%
  
• Vix 15.2 -3.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -10.0%
• TRIN/Arms .89 -1.11%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Worsening Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Across the Globe.
• Raimondo Seeks to Seize Moment With China Visit Focused on Business.
• China Cuts Stock Trade Tax, Tightens IPOs to Boost Market.
• Apple's iPhone Supply Chain Splinters Under US-China Tensions.
• Hyundai Faces New Pressure Campaign from Southern Labor Groups.
• Tech-Reliant Won Counts on Boost From Nvidia’s Sales Forecast.
• Wall Street’s Hot Options Come to Europe. Will They Take Off?
• Asia Stocks Look Set for Small Gains; Yen Weakens: Markets Wrap.
• Why Tractor Supply Is One of the Most Interesting Retailers on the Planet.
• US Budget Deficits Are Exploding Like Never Before.
• Markets Ready for Swings After High-Rates Mantra of Jackson Hole.
• Junkiest Debt Rallies as Investors Brush Off Fed.
• At Jackson Hole, Post-Inflation Challenges Vex Central Bankers.
• Twitchy Traders Have S&P 500 Comebacks Fizzling at Historic Pace.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge:

• Weaponized Collusion? Jack Smith's Team Huddled With Biden White House Before Trump Indictment. 
• Biden To Fund New COVID Vaccine "For Everybody... Whether They've Gotten It Before Or Not".
• Dr. Jay Bhattacharya: Biden Admin's Push For Everyone To Get New COVID Vaccine Is 'Irresponsible'. 
• Pfizer Documents Show COVID-19 Vaccines Contain Potentially Harmful 'Modified' RNA, Not mRNA. 
• A Startling Compilation: 'Neither Safe Nor Effective'.
• 'Election Variant': Citizens Push Back Against Mask Mandates. 
• Biden Targets Schools: Pulls Plug On Archery & Hunting Programs. 
• Musk Slams 'Black Supremacist' AG Going After SpaceX For Not Hiring Refugees.
• Transgender Surgeries In US Nearly Tripled In 3 Years.
• 371 Charged for COVID-19 Fraud Totaling $836 Million: DOJ. 
• Watch: Maui Residents Turned Back By Police Barricades Recount Their Brush With Death.
• Democrats Have Broken America: Where’s The Outrage?
• US Bank Deposits Plunged Last Week As Fed Rescue Funding Usage Hits New Record High.
• 'Bidenomics' Fail: Food Stamp Bonanza Sends Grocery Bills Soaring 15%, Study Finds.
• "Yes, They Were Being Bribed": Fired Ukraine Prosecutor Corroborates Biden Corruption.
• Patient Advocates, Physicians Say "Don't Give In To Fear" About New COVID Variant.
• Do Plunging Retail Stocks Signal The US Consumer Is Finally Done.
• Elite Crackdown On Free Speech Worldwide Intensifies.
• BlackRock Faces Leftist Backlash As It Votes For Fewer ESG Proposals.
• The Hidden Tax Of This And That.
• Bidenomics Is Working... Against The Interests Of Everyday Americans.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 3 charts we are watching: crashing fear.
• News Industry Behemoth Sued For Discrimination Against White Employees.
• The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble.
• New York Spending $20 Million Per Month To House Migrants On Randall's Island.
• "Game Of Thrones' Kind Of Thing": Tech Billionaires Buy 55,000 Acres Outside San Francisco To Start New City.
• John Kerry Jets Over To Scotland, Calls Climate Rationalists 'Cult' Members.
• DeSantis Declares Emergency As Tropical Depression Threatens Florida.
• Lee Fang: Nikki Haley's Sudden Wealth Rooted In Weapons Industry, Pro-War Advocacy Network.
• Where's The Beef? Ranchers Take Stand Over Synthetic 'Meat' Label.
• Biden Admin Blocks Millions Of Acres To Oil And Gas Drilling.
• Three US Marines Killed In MV-22B Osprey Crash In Australia.
• UK Oil And Gas Giant Cuts Investments And Defers Projects Over Windfall Tax. 
• From COVID To Climate Change: Vehicles For Global Authoritarianism.
• 7 Reasons Why 'The China Crisis' Has Finally Arrived.
• Biden Admin Invests $24 Million In mRNA Technology To Treat Cancer, Other Diseases.
• China Aims To Catalog The Genes Of 1.4 Billion People Every Five Years. 
• Why The House Has No Alternative To An Impeachment Inquiry Into President Biden.
• Parents Can't Opt Children Out Of LGBT Lessons: Judge.
• El Nino Threat Puts US Solar Power Output At Risk This Winter.

Wall Street Journal:

• Communist Party Priorities Complicate Plans to Revive China’s Economy.
• The Inevitable Nominee? Trump’s Election Momentum Builds.
• Rising Long-Term Rates Loom Over Wall Street.
• SALT Cap Has $20 Billion Hole.
• Chanel’s Unexpected CEO Is Reinventing the Company.
• The ‘Fidelity Mafia’ Behind Big Crypto.
• Please Support This Ice Maker: Big Manufacturers Crowdfund to Market-Test Products.
• How We Age—and How Scientists Are Working to Turn Back the Clock.
• Gina Raimondo Says China Visit Aimed at Protecting U.S. Economic Interests.
• This Company Is Nvidia’s AI Chip Partner—and Its Stock Is Soaring.
• Digital Payments Can’t Serve Up a Free Lunch.
• Fed’s Inflation Fight, China’s Slowdown Hammer Emerging Markets.
• New York Governor Is Under Fire for NYC’s Migrant Crisis.
• After Lahaina Fire, Finding and Identifying Victims Proves Arduous.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (MNST) and (SN).

CNBC:

• China’s rare earths dominance makes U.S. supply chains vulnerable, trade representative says.
• Labor unions are pushing hard for double-digit raises and better hours. Many are winning
• Your boarding pass and weight, please: Why airlines are weighing passengers.
• Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’.
• Young, rich workers are fleeing New York and California—here’s where they’re going.
• Biden trying to forgive student debt in ‘very direct confrontation’ with Supreme Court, expert says.

MarketWatch.com:

• 3M nears $5.5 billion settlement over defective military earplugs: reports
• ‘This is a no-rules market’. Goldman strategist explains why recent stock moves have confounded traders.
• Fed’s Powell leaves investors with a cloud of uncertainty. Why the U.S. stock market faces a difficult week ahead.
• Fed’s Mester sees another interest rate hike, says cuts may have to wait
• 1.7 million Americans cut the cord last quarter as traditional TV continues to erode.
• Nvidia plans to buy back billions in stock. Other companies could join in soon.

NewsMax:

• Victor Davis Hanson: Willis Knows Case Is Weak.
• Larry Elder to Newsmax: RNC Debate Ban Over Poll Is 'Bizarre'.
• Speaker McCarthy: Biden Impeachment Inquiry a 'Natural Step Forward'.
• Dr. Jordan Peterson: Dangerous Left Wants Catastrophe.

Fox News:

• Navy SEAL who gained fame after publicly claiming he killed Usama bin Laden arrested in Texas.
• 'The Blind Side' producers just blew the lid off Michael Oher's financial claim.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• HUGE! CAUGHT ON VIDEO… Brian Kemp Tells GA Voters: “If You Give Anybody a Voting Machine They Can Hack It” (VIDEO).
• Election Integrity T-Shirts Banned at 8th District GOP Fish Fry: Attendees Told to Turn Shirts Inside Out or Leave — Allowed to Re-Dress After Exit of Kemp and Raffensperger at the Event.
• That’s Bidenomics: American Auto-Giant Blindsides Over 900 Workers with Sudden Layoffs.
• Biden’s America: Isaac Yoder Sentenced to One Year in Prison and $1,570 Fine After He Walked Inside US Capitol on January 6 Dressed as George Washington.
• Florida’s Surgeon General Urges Americans to Refuse to Follow New Mask Mandates.
• FEMA Alert System Will Sound Alarm On EVERY Cellphone, TV and Radio on October 4th.
• “It’s None of Your Business!” – FBI Refused to Tell Mother of Disabled Veteran Why They Stormed Her Home – Then Proceeded to Shoot and Kill her Disabled Veteran Son Theodore Deschler in Pre-Dawn Raid – No New Details Released.
• Sage Steel Leaves Woke ESPN to ‘Exercise First Amendment Rights More Freely’.
• Return of COVID Restrictions? Instead Of Complying, Here’s One Way To Be Prepared.
• BACKFIRE: President Trump SHATTERS Personal Fundraising Record After Fulton County Mugshot.
• Bizarre Double Standard: DOJ Sues SpaceX for Prioritizing U.S. Citizens in Hiring While Doing the Same Themselves – Elon Musk Responds.
• NIH Study Suggests N95 Covid Masks May Expose Wearers to Toxic Compounds Linked to Seizures, Cancer.
• Judge Dismisses Lawsuit From Six Sorority Sisters Over Transgender Biological Man Being Allowed to Join.
• Jeffrey Epstein’s “Baby-Making” New Mexico Ranch Sold to Newly Registered Company for Undisclosed Amount.
• Study: Paper Straws Pushed By Climate Cultists May Contain Toxic ‘Forever Chemicals’.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China Saddled by 'Almost Double' Local Government Debt: Expert Is Authoritarianism on the Rise in the US?
• US Commerce Secretary Arrives in Beijing as CCP Struggles to Save Its Economy.
• US Seeks 6-Month Extension to Science, Technology Agreement With China.
• Real Estate and Financial Sectors Compound China's Economic Woes.

Twitter:

• @OliLondonTV - Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, The BLM and LGBTQI+ activist just had President Trump arrested as part of her ‘election interference indictment. In November 2020, she posted multiple posts on Facebook questioning the Georgia Election count. Will she be indicted?
• @CarolynRyanTV - GEORGIA BREAKING. Gov. Brian Kemp admits to a Republican voter: "If you give anybody a voting machine, they can hack it". The exchange took place today at the 8th district GOP fish fry in Perry, GA. (video) MUST WATCH! GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger @GaSecofState nervously scurries away mid-sentence when a Georgia patriot attempts to have a conversation w/ him at a GOP fish fry today. He asks Raffensperger if he thinks we have the right to question elections in GA. (video)
• @DC_Draino - This explosive video has been posted for 4+ days & there have been no credible fact-checks. The media is ignoring this story & hoping you forget about it. (video)
• @realDonaldTrump - Mug Shot 250M Views. (Pic)
• @paulsperry_ - BREAKING: New FOIA records reveal Fulton election officials in 2020 deputized 100s of anti-Trump Dems from ACLU, gave them power to process absentee ballot apps rec'd thru online portals & then equipped ACLU poll workers w/ iPads to cancel absentee ballots w/o county supervision.
• @UltraDane - Italy’s Meloni has reversed her campaign promise (which got her elected) and spits in the face of every Italian who voted for her. (video) Greece is experiencing the same arson perpetrated by climate change/build back better psychopaths. So far, over 80 people have been arrested and charged. (video)
• @matttttt187 - NON-CONSPIRACY ALERT. DEWs (Direct Energy Weapons) Are Just A Conspiracy Theory Eh? (video)
• @stillgray - Under Europe’s new law you will no longer be allowed to post protest videos or anything that makes the establishment look bad. (video)
• @XVanFleet - Joseph Bast, former president and CEO of The Heartland Institute on the "climate" agenda: "Back in 1993, we identified 'global warming' as the mother of all environmental scare tactics…..Groups on the left understood that if you can control energy, you can control human beings. (video)
• @disclosetv - NEW - Biden's climate czar John Kerry: "Now humanity is inexorably threatened by humanity itself." (video)
• @KariLake - America suffers as Biden welds OPEN Trump Border Wall so Cartels can traffic children, women, terrorists & drugs INTO America PROVING he puts America Last. (pic)
• @LawrenceSellin -  @JackMaxey1 is right. The U.S.-China scientific agreement started in 1979. Since then, China has used it both for technological transfer and to place pro-CCP Chinese scientists throughout the entire U.S. research community, even using U.S. funding to support research in China.
• @TrendSpider - $TGT Target CEO Brian Cornell sells another $3,921,135 in shares with the stock trading into multi-year lows...Doesn't exactly instill confidence in investors.
• @ggreenwald - That CIA invented an flagrant lie right before the 2020 election to protect Biden -- reporting from Hunter's laptop was "Russian disinformation" -- was a monumental abuse of power and election interference. Corporate media can't acknowledge it because they played the key role. (video)
• @CitizenFreePres - Tulsi mic drop: "A death rattle of any democracy is when a sitting president uses the state security apparatus to go after political opponents and cover up lies and crimes committed by himself or his family. Biden is doing that now." (video)
• @KobeissiLetter - BREAKING: Median cost to buy a house hits a new record of $2,748/mo, up a MASSIVE 90% since 2020. In other words, buying a house today costs nearly $33,000 per year. This is 46% of the median PRE-TAX household income in the US. Post-tax, homebuyers in the US are spending nearly 70% of their income on home payments. (graph)
• @RWMaloneMD - Important thread for those not yet aware. How CIA propaganda works. Every American and non-American should watch this video like 25 times. (video)
• @kevinnbass - COVID death rate: 0-19 years old 0.0003% 20-29 0.002% 30-39 0.011% 40-49 0.035% 50-59 0.123% 60-69 0.506% 0-69 0.063-0.082%. Yet they are closing schools and masking children again for this virus. Why? (pic)
• @FunkGodArtist - 6th Grade Girl Gets a Puberty Suppressing Implant. (video)
• @DrEliDavid -  Climate changes causes arson or the other way around? (pic)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 979870 Reports(+2,329 from prior week) Through August 11th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.75 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 81.25 -2.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 111.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.28%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.81 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.4 +2.4%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .35 -5.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.73%.
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Alt Energy/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -5.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .95%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.4 +.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.4 +.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.85 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 23.2 -5.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -6.4%

• NYSE Arms .96 +76.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.08 -1.52%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 326.6 -1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.2 -1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 265.6 -.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.3 +3.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.9 -3.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 -.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.75 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 178.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 71.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.8 -.9%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.73%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.8 euros/megawatt-hour +8.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.6 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -66.9 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.6 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(484 of 500 reporting) -7.2%  -1.0 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.0 +1.27:  Growth Rate +7.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 18.5 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 241.76 +7.59: Growth Rate +45.8% +3.1 percentage points, P/E 30.7 -2.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.06 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -81.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.91% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 46.7%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 5.5%-5.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 45.1%(+16.0 percentage points) chance of 5.5%-5.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BZUN)/-.63

After the Close: 

• (HEI)/.73
  

Economic Releases  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report for Aug.

Upcoming Splits 

• (RUSHA) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Retail Sales report and the US 2/5Y T-Note auctions could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -19.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.8 unch.
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 33.5% of Issues Advancing, 62.9% Declining
• 10 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 45.1%(+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 35.0 -5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 -.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,344.6 -.07%
• 1-Day Vix 16.0 -7.9%
  
• Vix 17.2 +.12%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.0 -9.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.76 +220.0%
  

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 +8.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +4.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 112.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.1 -.17%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.9 +.9%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 26.0 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.