Friday, October 13, 2023

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,327.8 +.45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 33,670.3 +.79%
  • NASDAQ 13,407.2 -.18%
  • Russell 2000 1,719.71 -1.5%
  • NYSE FANG+ 7,584.3 -.6% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 30.62 -2.8%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 125.8 -3.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 42,973.3 +1.44%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,740.89 +.28%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,480.22 +.43%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 705.78 +.18%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,271.97 +.98%
  • NYSE Technology 3,680.3 +2.2%
  • Transports 14,699.4 -.73%
  • Utilities 824.56 +3.1%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 86.27 +.13%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.0 +.19%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 190.70 -.15%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.79 +.71%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 452,130 +.39%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 +6.7%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -512 +178
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -39.7 +1.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 449,560 -.14%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,787,495 +2.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +6.1%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.76 +16.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 119.0 +20.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .83 -9.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.1 -3.8%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.07 +6.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.3 +9.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.21% -50.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 26.4+1.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.1 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.5 -3.5%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 12,401.9 +5.2%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  45.8 +9.6
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.706 Trillion -.03%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$1.549 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 40.0 +32.9%
  • AAII % Bears 36.5 -12.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 283.97 +3.4%
  • Crude Oil 87.6/bbl. +5.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 226.0 +3.11%
  • Natural Gas 3.22 -3.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.98 euros/megawatt-hour +42.1%
  • Heating Oil 320.80 +10.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 147.5 (1,000/metric ton) +6.2%
  • Gold 1,928.2 +5.2%
  • Silver 22.69 +5.1%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 400.8 -1.0%
  • Copper 357.14 -1.7%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 367.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
  • CME Lumber  503.5 +2.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,580.7 +1.15%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 347.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +5.15% +29.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.14 +28.1%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 257.29 +183.3%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(32 of 500 reporting) +14.3% +10.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.98 -.03:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 18.1 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.18% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.10 +1.77: Growth Rate +57.6% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 28.5 +.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.2 -8.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.5 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.4 +2.9 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 89.1%(+16.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 10.9%(-16.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 11/1
  • US Dollar Index 106.65 +.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,671.1 +.59%
  • Bitcoin/USD 26,746.2 -4.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.4 -.51%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -43.0 -11.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.62% -15.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.916 Trillion -.04% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.626 Billion -24.8%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.3 +5.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 207.60 +1.49%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.0 +1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.88 -.42%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 82.86 -6.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 184.96 -3.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.68 +109.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.69 -2.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.51%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 73.9 -1.7%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% +10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.2% -10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.7% -60.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.7% -40.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% -3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.42% -27.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34% +3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.5 +.75 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.25 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 76.72 +.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 195.0 -4.8
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 356.0 -27.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 96.91 -3.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 300.95 -8.4%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 236.81 +1.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 185.0 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 912.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .85 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.7% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,209.6 +.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 209,250 +.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.1 +.8%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.80% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 179,300 +.62%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.0% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $107.5M +28.4%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.63/gallon -.12/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,935.0 +.31%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 819.97 -3.75%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +22.2%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 42.9 -3.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 265,449 +.49%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,695,875 +21.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +7.1%
  • Oil Service +7.1%
  • Energy +6.3%
  • Defense +5.0%
  • Telecom +3.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • I-Banking -1.8%
  • AI/Robotics -1.8%
  • Digital Health -3.3%
  • Airlines -4.3%
  • Medical Equipment -5.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • RVMD, VSAT, DG, PGR, CHEF, AVAV, DRS, OFIX, PXD and WFC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)
  • PNC, GPRE, EVRI, AMLX, HRL, BIP, PERI, MEOH, NVT, MBLY, INMD, IDYA, STRL, WCC, SAVA, TARS, BDC, HRMY and SGH
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Mid-East Regional War Worries, Rising US Consumer Inflation Fears, Oil Surge, Tech/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +19.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.08% +73.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.3 -5.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.3 -.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 27.7 +16.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +18.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .97 -9.4%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -25.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.1 +2.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.05 +.43%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 356 +18
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.02 +3.9% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 300.95 +.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.99 +1.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.54 +4.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 123.68 +11.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.89 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.5 basis points +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.25 -1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 185.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 912.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.48% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.7 USD/Metric Tonne  +.31%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.2 -4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.5 -3.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.4 +2.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(32 of 500 reporting) +14.3% +8.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.98 -.04:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 18.1 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.18% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.10 +.14: Growth Rate +57.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.5 -.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 -19.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.07 unch.
  • US Yield Curve -43.0 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.15% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.42% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 68.5%(+4.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 68.5%(+5.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -161 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +78 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -2.3% 2) Internet -1.8% 3) Gambling -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GPRE, AMLX, BA, BIP, PNC, JD, SPHR, HRL, PERI, UCTT, MEOH, MORF, INMD, WCC, STRL, IDYA, TARS, SAVA, BDC, HRMY and SGH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GRAB 2) MBLY 3) JPM 4) SAVA 5) TAL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SGH 2) BDC 3) HRMY 4) SAVA 5) PATH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +4.4% 2) Energy +2.4% 3) Oil Service +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RVMD, GRPN, VSAT, DG, PGR, TNDM, AVAV, CHEF, JPM and PXD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) XP 2) IHI 3) PBR/A 4) JPM 5) GFI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PSQH 2) CMTL 3) FRCB 4) PGR 5) IMVT

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (SCHW)/.75
After the Close: 
  • (ELS)/.72
Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST:

  • Empire Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to fall to -6.0 versus 1.9 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Industrial Production report, (JEF) investor meeting and the (SCHW) fall business udpate could also impact global on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -8.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -.7
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 43.7% of Issues Advancing, 53.4% Declining
  • 17 New 52-Week Highs, 86 New Lows
  • 33.5%(+.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.1 -4.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,186.5 -.64%
  • 1-Day Vix 16.5 +11.0%
  • Vix 18.8 +12.8%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -20.6%
  • TRIN/Arms .85 -24.1%

Thursday, October 12, 2023

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 83.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.10%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.6 +2.0%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -7.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 -.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reverse Lower into Close on Surging Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +12.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .62% -9.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.5 -.14%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.9 -.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 246.2 +15.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 -37.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -19.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.39 +13.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 +1.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.41 +.72%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 338 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.4 -1.4% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 298.1 -1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 198.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.5 -2.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 231.3 +2.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 111.0 +10.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.89 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.0 basis points -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 182.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 914.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 87.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 -.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.50% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.1 USD/Metric Tonne  -1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.0 euros/megawatt-hour +15.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.9 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -38.7 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.9 +3.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(25 of 500 reporting) +5.8% +.9 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.02 -.02:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 18.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.18% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.96 +.20: Growth Rate +57.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.3 +.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .18 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.07 +13.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -37.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.15% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% -3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.42% -27.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 65.6%(-6.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 64.2%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -204 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -115 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +69 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -2.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -5.7% 2) Digital Health -4.2% 3) Gambling -3.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CSGS, AES, DVA, BSX, DAVA, DXCM, OCSL, FR, RCM, AAL, BTI, MKC, FLO, PETQ, KDP, COLD, MDGL, JELD, TEAM, UFPI, CYTK, NARI, VTYX, INFY, GMAB, QDEL, PEN, ES, THC, NEP, LW, INSP, JD, QTRX, UTZ, CMC, HRL, AMR, NTRA and INMD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BAX 2) XME 3) DVA 4) MANU 5) MUB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TPST 2) HRL 3) INMD 4) EVA 5) BIRK
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -5.4% 2) Digital Health -3.8% 3) Alt Energy -3.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AMAM, VSAT, FAST, WBA, ACHC and VMW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BAX 2) LYV 3) THC 4) MASI 5) PRGO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FAST 2) TUP 3) LL 4) OPRX 5) SRRK

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BLK)/8.34
  • (C)/1.23
  • (JPM)/3.95
  • (PNC)/3.10
  • (UNH)6.33
  • (PGR)/1.72
  • (WFC)/1.24
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST:

  • The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in Aug.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus unch. in Aug.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.3% gain in Aug.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Oct. is estimated to fall to 67.0 versus 68.1 in Sept.
  • Univ. of Mich. 1-Y Inflation Expectations for Oct. is estimated at +3.2% versus +3.2% in Sept.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +4.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 +.8
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 23.2% of Issues Advancing, 74.1% Declining
  • 30 New 52-Week Highs, 92 New Lows
  • 34.6%(-5.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.1 +2.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,398.2 +1.0%
  • 1-Day Vix 11.7 -251%
  • Vix 15.8 -2.0%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -27.0%
  • TRIN/Arms .97 -20.5%

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.0 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 83.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.27%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.30 -.02%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.1 +2.1%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .15 +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 -1.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.