Indices
S&P 500 1,191.17 +.72%
Dow 10,592.21 +.66%
NASDAQ 2,147.96 +2.19%
Russell 2000 642.21 +1.75%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,008.11 +.55%
Put/Call .69 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.37 +53.93%
Volatility(VIX) 12.96 +1.33%
AAII % Bulls 56.76 +14.71%
US Dollar 80.98 -.96%
CRB 284.40 -2.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 457.30 +1.22%
Crude Oil 42.54 -13.75%
Unleaded Gasoline 113.49 -13.56%
Natural Gas 6.8 -20.52%
Heating Oil 123.59 -15.7%
Base Metals 117.20 -2.75%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.26% +.09%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.81% +1.57%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +9.36%
Airlines +8.47%
Software +4.26%
Lagging Sectors
Utilities -4.17%
Energy -4.53%
Oil Service -5.33%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Saturday, December 04, 2004
Friday, December 03, 2004
Mid-day Report
S&P 500 1,189.75 -.05%
NASDAQ 2,148.64 +.24%
Leading Sectors
Semis +2.45%
Homebuilders +2.18%
Iron/Steel +2.04%
Lagging Sectors
Papers -.89%
Broadcasting -1.26%
Airlines -1.62%
Other
Crude Oil 42.80 -1.04%
Natural Gas 6.80 -.09%
Gold 456.80 +1.04%
Base Metals 117.20 -.57%
U.S. Dollar 81.19 -.94%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.25% -3.55%
VIX 12.94 -.31%
Put/Call .71 -14.46%
NYSE Arms 1.35 +55.17%
Market Movers
INTC +6.21% after boosting 4Q outlook, reducing inventories and Needham upgrade to Buy.
AUGT +13.9% on Adams Harkness upgrade to Strong Buy, target $12.
NCR +4.2% after the State of Missouri selected its Teradata division to be its partner in the development of its new Tax Compliance System.
IMDC +6.0% after it and its partner, Genzyme, won U.S. approval to sell the Captique wrinkle gel.
SCSS -20.8% after cutting 4Q outlook.
FITB -6.1% after cutting 4Q outlook and multiple downgrades.
AAPL -3.7% on Needham downgrade to Hold.
ETM -4.6% on SunTrust downgrade to Neutral.
*Semis and equipment up across the board on INTC mid-quarter update.
*Homebuilders up across the board on a sharp decline in interest rates.
Economic Data
Unemployment Rate for November fell to 5.4% versus estimates of 5.4% and 5.5% in October.
Average Hourly Earnings for November rose .1% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .3% increase in October.
Change in Non-farm Payrolls for November was 112K versus estimates of 200K and 303K in October.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for November was -5K versus estimates of 0K and -2K in October.
Average Weekly Hours for November was 33.7 versus estimates of 33.8 and 33.8 in October.
ISM Non-Manufacturing for November was 61.3 versus estimates of 58.5 and 59.8 in October.
Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on INTC, ADP, HEW, PAYX, CEN, COH, WAG, AMGN, BSX . Goldman reiterated Underperform on ABY, PSS, RAI.
-Citi SmithBarney said to switch from TGT to WMT. Citi reiterated Buy on CNET, target $13. Citi reiterated Buy on BHI, target $57. Citi reiterated Buy on INTC, target $26.50. Citi reiterated Buy on CMCSK, target $34. Citi reiterated Buy on LYO, target $36. Citi reiterated Buy on FITB, target $58. Citi reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90.
-UBS rated BEAV Buy, target $14.
-JP Morgan downgraded ANN to Underweight. JP Morgan downgraded CLE to Underweight.
-Merrill Lynch rated CTAS Buy, target $52. Merrill rated MAN Buy, target $63. Merrill rated KFY, target $23.50. Merrill rated RECN Sell.
-Thomas Weisel upgraded PLT and LRCX to Outperform.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as strength in tech and interest-rate sensitive sectors is being offset by worries over the consumer. Cell phone rings that play songs have been popular in Western Europe and Asia for the past two years and are catching on fast in the U.S., the Washington Post said. The Democratic National Committee raised more money during the past election than the Republican National Committee for the first time since the mid-1970s, and both sides broke all previous fundraising records, the Washington Post reported. Smaller computer-related companies are enjoying a strong market for IPOs after more than four years of little activity, the NY Times reported. Oregon Steel, the only maker of steel plates on the U.S. West Coast, plans to raise its prices in January, American Metal Market reported. New Jersey drugmakers, including Schering-Pough, are planning a program to allow low-income and families without health insurance better access to medicine, the Star-Ledger reported. An official of Hamas told the AP his group would be open to a Palestinian state and a lengthy truce with Israel. The LA Times will stop publishing its national edition at year-end because the Internet has made the separate newspaper irrelevant, the Washington Post reported. Ukraine's political crisis, which has driven down the price of the country's bonds and stocks, has failed to hurt the debt of other emerging-market nations, the Economist reported. A New Jersey legislative committee approved a bill that would allow casino betting on sporting events, as the state faces a $4 billion budget deficit and competition from casinos in other states, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Korn/Ferry Intl., the world's largest executive-search company, sees the job market for top and middle manager as robust, CEO Reilly told CNBC. Ukraine's Supreme Court threw out last month's presidential election results that showed Prime Minister Yanukovych beat rival Yushchenko, saying there is evidence the balloting was riddled with fraud, Bloomberg reported. John Henry, chairman of a $2.9 billion commodity-trading firm that bears his name, said he's betting on a drop in oil prices after profiting from their climb, Bloomberg said. U.S. Treasury notes rose the most in four months after job growth slowed in November, tempering speculation the Fed would accelerate the pace of interest rate increases, Bloomberg said. The ISM Non-manufacturing Index rose to a four-month high, surpassing expectations, Bloomberg reported. U.S. employers added 112,000 workers in November, fewer than economists expected, Bloomberg said. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, down from 6.3% in June of 2003, Bloomberg reported.
NASDAQ 2,148.64 +.24%
Leading Sectors
Semis +2.45%
Homebuilders +2.18%
Iron/Steel +2.04%
Lagging Sectors
Papers -.89%
Broadcasting -1.26%
Airlines -1.62%
Other
Crude Oil 42.80 -1.04%
Natural Gas 6.80 -.09%
Gold 456.80 +1.04%
Base Metals 117.20 -.57%
U.S. Dollar 81.19 -.94%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.25% -3.55%
VIX 12.94 -.31%
Put/Call .71 -14.46%
NYSE Arms 1.35 +55.17%
Market Movers
INTC +6.21% after boosting 4Q outlook, reducing inventories and Needham upgrade to Buy.
AUGT +13.9% on Adams Harkness upgrade to Strong Buy, target $12.
NCR +4.2% after the State of Missouri selected its Teradata division to be its partner in the development of its new Tax Compliance System.
IMDC +6.0% after it and its partner, Genzyme, won U.S. approval to sell the Captique wrinkle gel.
SCSS -20.8% after cutting 4Q outlook.
FITB -6.1% after cutting 4Q outlook and multiple downgrades.
AAPL -3.7% on Needham downgrade to Hold.
ETM -4.6% on SunTrust downgrade to Neutral.
*Semis and equipment up across the board on INTC mid-quarter update.
*Homebuilders up across the board on a sharp decline in interest rates.
Economic Data
Unemployment Rate for November fell to 5.4% versus estimates of 5.4% and 5.5% in October.
Average Hourly Earnings for November rose .1% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .3% increase in October.
Change in Non-farm Payrolls for November was 112K versus estimates of 200K and 303K in October.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for November was -5K versus estimates of 0K and -2K in October.
Average Weekly Hours for November was 33.7 versus estimates of 33.8 and 33.8 in October.
ISM Non-Manufacturing for November was 61.3 versus estimates of 58.5 and 59.8 in October.
Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on INTC, ADP, HEW, PAYX, CEN, COH, WAG, AMGN, BSX . Goldman reiterated Underperform on ABY, PSS, RAI.
-Citi SmithBarney said to switch from TGT to WMT. Citi reiterated Buy on CNET, target $13. Citi reiterated Buy on BHI, target $57. Citi reiterated Buy on INTC, target $26.50. Citi reiterated Buy on CMCSK, target $34. Citi reiterated Buy on LYO, target $36. Citi reiterated Buy on FITB, target $58. Citi reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90.
-UBS rated BEAV Buy, target $14.
-JP Morgan downgraded ANN to Underweight. JP Morgan downgraded CLE to Underweight.
-Merrill Lynch rated CTAS Buy, target $52. Merrill rated MAN Buy, target $63. Merrill rated KFY, target $23.50. Merrill rated RECN Sell.
-Thomas Weisel upgraded PLT and LRCX to Outperform.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as strength in tech and interest-rate sensitive sectors is being offset by worries over the consumer. Cell phone rings that play songs have been popular in Western Europe and Asia for the past two years and are catching on fast in the U.S., the Washington Post said. The Democratic National Committee raised more money during the past election than the Republican National Committee for the first time since the mid-1970s, and both sides broke all previous fundraising records, the Washington Post reported. Smaller computer-related companies are enjoying a strong market for IPOs after more than four years of little activity, the NY Times reported. Oregon Steel, the only maker of steel plates on the U.S. West Coast, plans to raise its prices in January, American Metal Market reported. New Jersey drugmakers, including Schering-Pough, are planning a program to allow low-income and families without health insurance better access to medicine, the Star-Ledger reported. An official of Hamas told the AP his group would be open to a Palestinian state and a lengthy truce with Israel. The LA Times will stop publishing its national edition at year-end because the Internet has made the separate newspaper irrelevant, the Washington Post reported. Ukraine's political crisis, which has driven down the price of the country's bonds and stocks, has failed to hurt the debt of other emerging-market nations, the Economist reported. A New Jersey legislative committee approved a bill that would allow casino betting on sporting events, as the state faces a $4 billion budget deficit and competition from casinos in other states, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Korn/Ferry Intl., the world's largest executive-search company, sees the job market for top and middle manager as robust, CEO Reilly told CNBC. Ukraine's Supreme Court threw out last month's presidential election results that showed Prime Minister Yanukovych beat rival Yushchenko, saying there is evidence the balloting was riddled with fraud, Bloomberg reported. John Henry, chairman of a $2.9 billion commodity-trading firm that bears his name, said he's betting on a drop in oil prices after profiting from their climb, Bloomberg said. U.S. Treasury notes rose the most in four months after job growth slowed in November, tempering speculation the Fed would accelerate the pace of interest rate increases, Bloomberg said. The ISM Non-manufacturing Index rose to a four-month high, surpassing expectations, Bloomberg reported. U.S. employers added 112,000 workers in November, fewer than economists expected, Bloomberg said. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, down from 6.3% in June of 2003, Bloomberg reported.
Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as strength in my internet and semi-equipment longs is offsetting weakness in my Chinese ADR and retail longs. I exited an internet long this morning and added ELOS long, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. I am using a $24.25 stop-loss on this position. While job creation was disappointing, the continuing fall in the unemployment rate is very positive. It also appears that weather effects are still significant. Over the last 3 months an ALL-TIME record number of people said they were not at work for weather-related reasons, yet an average of 178,000 jobs/month were created during this period. As I have stated before, over 70% of inflation comes from unit labor costs. Thus, a modestly improving labor market is better for stocks than robust job growth. This is why interest rates are plunging and one of the reasons stocks aren't selling off today. As well, the ISM Non-manufacturing Index shows an acceleration in services, the largest part of the U.S. economy. I expect U.S. stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the afternoon as short-covering and optimism in the tech sector offsets worries over the consumer.
Friday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
None of note.
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Unemployment Rate for November estimated at 5.4% versus 5.5% in October.
Average Hourly Earnings for November estimated up .3% versus a .3% increase in October.
Change in Non-farm Payrolls for November estimated at 200K versus 337K in October.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for November estimated at 0K versus a loss of 5K in October.
Average Weekly Hours for November estimated at 33.8 versus 33.8 in October.
ISM Non-Manufacturing for November estimated at 58.5 versus 59.8 in October.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN, BSX, GE and INTC. Goldman reiterated Underperform on ALA and TLAB. Colgate-Palmolive(CL), whose shares have dropped 14% since Sept. 20 when the company said 2004 profits wouldn't meet forecasts, is again attracting investors, Business Week reported. Given Imaging(GIVN) shares may rise on sales of its diagnostic camera in a pill, Business Week reported. Curis(CRIS), a maker of drugs to fighter cancer and kidney disease, may become the target of a takeover because it has three big pharmaceutical companies as partners, Business Week reported.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher on optimism for technology shares in the region after Intel's mid-quarter update. Nigeria wants to boost its oil exports to the U.S., President Obasanjo said in an interview with CNN. China faces a bigger influx of foreign currencies as investors bet the government will let the yuan appreciate, the state-run Xinhua News said. Credit-card issuers are losing business because consumers are shifting their debt to low-rate home-equity loans, Business Week reported. The number of blogs on the Internet has risen to about 4.8 million, from 100,000 two years ago, Business Week said. Dongfeng Motor of China and Cummins of the U.S. agreed to establish a $20 million research and development center for truck engines in Wuhan, central China, Chinanews agency reported. Citigroup CEO Charles Prince is considering taking steps to address investor worries that the company is too large to manage and grow, the NY Times said. President Bush will use a mid-December economic summit to begin a push for his plan to allow younger workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar headed for its first weekly gain in eight against the euro in Asia on expectations a report today will show U.S. employers added enough workers to fuel consumer spending and economic growth, Bloomberg reported. Shares of NEC Electronics, Toshiba Corp. and other computer-related companies rose in Asia after Intel said fourth-quarter sales will exceed its previous forecast because of higher demand for processors used to power laptop, desktop and server computers, Bloomberg reported. Verizon raised $1.88 billion from the sale of its 20.5% stake in Canada's Telus Corp., Bloomberg reported. IBM wants to sell its pc business for between $1 billion to $2 billion, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.39%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.81%
Company/Estimate
None of note.
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Unemployment Rate for November estimated at 5.4% versus 5.5% in October.
Average Hourly Earnings for November estimated up .3% versus a .3% increase in October.
Change in Non-farm Payrolls for November estimated at 200K versus 337K in October.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for November estimated at 0K versus a loss of 5K in October.
Average Weekly Hours for November estimated at 33.8 versus 33.8 in October.
ISM Non-Manufacturing for November estimated at 58.5 versus 59.8 in October.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN, BSX, GE and INTC. Goldman reiterated Underperform on ALA and TLAB. Colgate-Palmolive(CL), whose shares have dropped 14% since Sept. 20 when the company said 2004 profits wouldn't meet forecasts, is again attracting investors, Business Week reported. Given Imaging(GIVN) shares may rise on sales of its diagnostic camera in a pill, Business Week reported. Curis(CRIS), a maker of drugs to fighter cancer and kidney disease, may become the target of a takeover because it has three big pharmaceutical companies as partners, Business Week reported.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher on optimism for technology shares in the region after Intel's mid-quarter update. Nigeria wants to boost its oil exports to the U.S., President Obasanjo said in an interview with CNN. China faces a bigger influx of foreign currencies as investors bet the government will let the yuan appreciate, the state-run Xinhua News said. Credit-card issuers are losing business because consumers are shifting their debt to low-rate home-equity loans, Business Week reported. The number of blogs on the Internet has risen to about 4.8 million, from 100,000 two years ago, Business Week said. Dongfeng Motor of China and Cummins of the U.S. agreed to establish a $20 million research and development center for truck engines in Wuhan, central China, Chinanews agency reported. Citigroup CEO Charles Prince is considering taking steps to address investor worries that the company is too large to manage and grow, the NY Times said. President Bush will use a mid-December economic summit to begin a push for his plan to allow younger workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar headed for its first weekly gain in eight against the euro in Asia on expectations a report today will show U.S. employers added enough workers to fuel consumer spending and economic growth, Bloomberg reported. Shares of NEC Electronics, Toshiba Corp. and other computer-related companies rose in Asia after Intel said fourth-quarter sales will exceed its previous forecast because of higher demand for processors used to power laptop, desktop and server computers, Bloomberg reported. Verizon raised $1.88 billion from the sale of its 20.5% stake in Canada's Telus Corp., Bloomberg reported. IBM wants to sell its pc business for between $1 billion to $2 billion, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.39%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.81%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open higher in the morning on optimism over Intel's mid-quarter update and a better-than-expected employment report. Interest rates will likely rise on this news which could lead to profit-taking later in the day, resulting in a modest daily gain for stocks. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, December 02, 2004
Thursday Close
S&P 500 1,190.33 -.09%
NASDAQ 2,143.57 +.25%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.57%
Disk Drives +2.37%
Biotech +1.81%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -2.42%
Energy -2.65%
Iron/Steel -3.09%
Other
Crude Oil 43.45 +.46%
Natural Gas 6.83 +.35%
Gold 451.30 -.22%
Base Metals 1117.87 -2.42%
U.S. Dollar 81.95 +.48%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.40% +.90%
VIX 12.98 +.08%
Put/Call .83 +3.75%
NYSE Arms .87 +42.62%
After-hours Movers
INTC +7.2% after boosting 4Q outlook and reducing inventories.
*Semiconductors and Equipment stocks up across the board on INTC report.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on WAG, BBY, GLW and WMT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on MAY and JDSU.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished quietly mixed today as investor apprehension rose in the afternoon ahead of Intel's mid-quarter update and tomorrow's employment report. Sony says 20 million European homes will have high-definition television by 2008, the Financial Times said. NY State Comptroller Hevesi, who sued Merck earlier this week over pension fund losses related to the drug Vioxx, said the company delayed its response to indications the drug caused heart trouble because it was making so much money from it, CNBC reported. A rise in steel shipments boosted traffic at the Port of Indiana-Burns Harbor to a record in October, American Metal Market reported. Crude oil's three day, 13% plunge is the steepest decline is the steepest since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003, Bloomberg reported. Procter & Gamble needs to conduct more research to win approval of its testosterone patch to treat sexual dysfunction in women, a FDA advisory panel said. Intel said fourth-quarter sales will exceed its previous forecasts as demand grows for laptop and desktop personal computers, Bloomberg said. President Bush said the U.S. is "very firm" that Iraq should hold elections on schedule Jan. 30, Bloomberg reported. Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko said the government might use force to end protests against alleged presidential election fraud, as outgoing President Kuchma reiterated his call for a new vote, Bloomberg reported.
NASDAQ 2,143.57 +.25%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.57%
Disk Drives +2.37%
Biotech +1.81%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -2.42%
Energy -2.65%
Iron/Steel -3.09%
Other
Crude Oil 43.45 +.46%
Natural Gas 6.83 +.35%
Gold 451.30 -.22%
Base Metals 1117.87 -2.42%
U.S. Dollar 81.95 +.48%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.40% +.90%
VIX 12.98 +.08%
Put/Call .83 +3.75%
NYSE Arms .87 +42.62%
After-hours Movers
INTC +7.2% after boosting 4Q outlook and reducing inventories.
*Semiconductors and Equipment stocks up across the board on INTC report.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on WAG, BBY, GLW and WMT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on MAY and JDSU.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished quietly mixed today as investor apprehension rose in the afternoon ahead of Intel's mid-quarter update and tomorrow's employment report. Sony says 20 million European homes will have high-definition television by 2008, the Financial Times said. NY State Comptroller Hevesi, who sued Merck earlier this week over pension fund losses related to the drug Vioxx, said the company delayed its response to indications the drug caused heart trouble because it was making so much money from it, CNBC reported. A rise in steel shipments boosted traffic at the Port of Indiana-Burns Harbor to a record in October, American Metal Market reported. Crude oil's three day, 13% plunge is the steepest decline is the steepest since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003, Bloomberg reported. Procter & Gamble needs to conduct more research to win approval of its testosterone patch to treat sexual dysfunction in women, a FDA advisory panel said. Intel said fourth-quarter sales will exceed its previous forecasts as demand grows for laptop and desktop personal computers, Bloomberg said. President Bush said the U.S. is "very firm" that Iraq should hold elections on schedule Jan. 30, Bloomberg reported. Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko said the government might use force to end protests against alleged presidential election fraud, as outgoing President Kuchma reiterated his call for a new vote, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Chinese ADR and steel longs. I added a few new semi equipment and wireless longs into the afternoon weakness, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. One of my new longs is AMAT and I am using a $16.80 stop-loss on this new position. The tone of the market was weaker today, which was somewhat disappointing considering another substantial decline in energy prices and rise in the US dollar. However, stocks are reacting positively to Intel's report after-hours. Commodity-related stocks have likely peaked in the intermediate-term on year-end repositioning, worries over excess supply and a bounce in the US dollar. I continue to expect another push higher tomorrow on the INTC news and a better-than-expected jobs' report.
MId-day Report
S&P 500 1,191.23 -.01%
NASDAQ 2,143.09 +.23%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.25%
Telecom +1.82%
Biotech +1.54%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -2.68%
Commodity -2.69%
Iron/Steel -3.64%
Other
Crude Oil 43.30 -4.70%
Natural Gas 6.86 -7.19%
Gold 451.80 -.88%
Base Metals 119.78 -.84%
U.S. Dollar 81.90 +.42%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.38% +.45%
VIX 12.79 -1.39%
Put/Call .82 +2.50%
NYSE Arms .67 +9.84%
Market Movers
Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 349K versus estimates of 330K and 324K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2723K versus 2768K prior.
Factory Orders for October rose .5% versus estimates of a .2% gain and unch. in September.
Recommendations
(Refresh your browser if this page doesn't load the first try)
Mid-day News
NASDAQ 2,143.09 +.23%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.25%
Telecom +1.82%
Biotech +1.54%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -2.68%
Commodity -2.69%
Iron/Steel -3.64%
Other
Crude Oil 43.30 -4.70%
Natural Gas 6.86 -7.19%
Gold 451.80 -.88%
Base Metals 119.78 -.84%
U.S. Dollar 81.90 +.42%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.38% +.45%
VIX 12.79 -1.39%
Put/Call .82 +2.50%
NYSE Arms .67 +9.84%
Market Movers
Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 349K versus estimates of 330K and 324K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2723K versus 2768K prior.
Factory Orders for October rose .5% versus estimates of a .2% gain and unch. in September.
Recommendations
(Refresh your browser if this page doesn't load the first try)
Mid-day News
Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as strength in my retail and telecom equipment longs is being offset by weakness in my steel and Chinese ADR longs. I took profits in a few base metal longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 100% net long. The tone of the market is weaker today as stocks consolidate yesterday's gains. I view this as healthy. I look for the major indices to rally modestly tomorrow after Intel's mid-quarter update and the jobs report.
Thursday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ABS/.33
CMN/.28
DLM/.21
MBG/.88
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week estimated at 330K versus 323K the prior week.
Continuing Claims estimated at 2768K versus 2755K prior.
Factory Orders for October estimated to rise .2% versus a .4% decline in September.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on DE, EW, CMOS and PYX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over falling energy prices and exports to the U.S. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's customer orders will rebound in the first quarter on demand from graphics chip designers such as Nvidia Corp., the Commercial Times reported. General Motors is planning a joint venture with Yulon Motor to make vehicles in Taiwan, the Economic Daily News reported. Halliburton may win the contract to oversee construction of the U.K. Ministry of Defense's two new Royal Navy aircraft carriers due to enter service in 2012 and 2015, the Independent said. India may attract as much as $4 billion more in the next two months from overseas funds investing in local stocks and bonds as economic expansion and a stronger rupee help boost their returns, the Business Standard reported. Nissan Motor and Toyota Motor stocks are rising in Asia after a report showed Asian automakers are headed for a record share of the U.S. auto market, after gaining on GM and Ford in November, Bloomberg reported. Ukraine's parliamentary groups are negotiating to choose a successor to Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych after he lost a confidence vote prompted by the crisis arising from disputed presidential elections, Bloomberg said. Nissan Motor said it may cut production next year because of a lack of steel, the second time a shortage of the metal has interrupted production, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar will rebound, halting its 3.5% drop in the past month versus the yen, as the strength of the U.S. economy increases the appeal of its assets, said Zembei Mizoguchi, a former top Japanese currency policy maker, Bloomberg reported. UN Secretary-General Annan will not resign over the massive corruption relating to the Iraqi/UN Oil-for-Food program as called for by a U.S. senator, Xinhua News reported. Viacom Chairman and CEO Sumner Redstone said there is a "total disconnect" between the company's performance and the value of its shares, which have declined 20% this year, Bloomberg reported. President Bush may have to move faster to present his proposals for a revision of the U.S. tax code to Congress if he wants to get them approved, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0%. to +1.5% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.09%
Company/Estimate
ABS/.33
CMN/.28
DLM/.21
MBG/.88
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week estimated at 330K versus 323K the prior week.
Continuing Claims estimated at 2768K versus 2755K prior.
Factory Orders for October estimated to rise .2% versus a .4% decline in September.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on DE, EW, CMOS and PYX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over falling energy prices and exports to the U.S. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's customer orders will rebound in the first quarter on demand from graphics chip designers such as Nvidia Corp., the Commercial Times reported. General Motors is planning a joint venture with Yulon Motor to make vehicles in Taiwan, the Economic Daily News reported. Halliburton may win the contract to oversee construction of the U.K. Ministry of Defense's two new Royal Navy aircraft carriers due to enter service in 2012 and 2015, the Independent said. India may attract as much as $4 billion more in the next two months from overseas funds investing in local stocks and bonds as economic expansion and a stronger rupee help boost their returns, the Business Standard reported. Nissan Motor and Toyota Motor stocks are rising in Asia after a report showed Asian automakers are headed for a record share of the U.S. auto market, after gaining on GM and Ford in November, Bloomberg reported. Ukraine's parliamentary groups are negotiating to choose a successor to Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych after he lost a confidence vote prompted by the crisis arising from disputed presidential elections, Bloomberg said. Nissan Motor said it may cut production next year because of a lack of steel, the second time a shortage of the metal has interrupted production, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar will rebound, halting its 3.5% drop in the past month versus the yen, as the strength of the U.S. economy increases the appeal of its assets, said Zembei Mizoguchi, a former top Japanese currency policy maker, Bloomberg reported. UN Secretary-General Annan will not resign over the massive corruption relating to the Iraqi/UN Oil-for-Food program as called for by a U.S. senator, Xinhua News reported. Viacom Chairman and CEO Sumner Redstone said there is a "total disconnect" between the company's performance and the value of its shares, which have declined 20% this year, Bloomberg reported. President Bush may have to move faster to present his proposals for a revision of the U.S. tax code to Congress if he wants to get them approved, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0%. to +1.5% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.09%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open mixed in the morning on a consolidation of today's gains. However, stocks will likely rise modestly into the afternoon on continuing optimism over falling energy prices, short-covering ahead of Intel's mid-quarter update and anticipation of another good jobs report. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
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