Monday Watch

Weekend News
Arab airlines grew the fastest last year of any regional grouping by number of passengers carried, boosting profits, Arabian Business magazine reported. New York my become the first state to offer a so-called work-readiness credential to students who voluntarily take a test on skills needed to perform entry-level jobs, the NY Times reported. Kaiser Permanente, a California-based hmo, will no longer sell Pfizer's Bextra in its pharmacies after some tests found the arthritis and pain drug may increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes, the NY Times reported. Advisers to President Bush have recommended he propose personal Social Security accounts that let individuals invest initially in three to five diversified funds under a system similar to the Thrift Savings Plan for federal workers, the Boston Globe reported. SBC Communication's possible bid for AT&T will make Verizon Communications, BellSouth and Qwest Communications consider whether to purchase MCI Inc., the NY Times reported. A few days before a Parliament debate to loosen limits on the 35-hour work week, 77% of the French people say they would prefer to leave their working time unchanged, Le Journal du Dimanche reported. Comcast and Time Warner have completed a joint off for the bankrupt Adelphia Communications and may be the only bidder for the whole company by the Jan. 31 deadline, the LA Times reported. Bill Gross, CIO for PIMCO, expects the yield on 10-Year T-notes may rise to 4.75% or 5.0% within 12 months, Barron's reported. Some Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts shareholders and a bank that once offered to buy a controlling stake in it have filed motions blocking the company's plan to exit bankruptcy, the Star-Ledger reported. Public health officials say AIDS infections in newborn babies may be almost eradicated in the US because of more effective drugs, public education and testing, the NY Times reported. The Qatari government is trying to sell unprofitable Al Jazeera after Bush administration officials have complained about biased and false reporting on the Arab language television station, the NY Times reported. International Speedway will sell Nazareth Speedway, once the home track for now-retired race drivers Mario and Michael Andretti, the Morning Call of Allentown, Pennsylvania reported. The British Broadcasting Corp. said it mistakenly reported that US forces and their allies killed more civilians than insurgents fighting in Iraq, Bloomberg reported. Halliburton and Baker Hughes won a government contract to drill for gas in Bahrain, a Persian Gulf archipelago, in an effort to meet demand from its power plants and aluminum industry, Middle East Economic Digest said. Iran, holder of the world's second-largest oil reserves, will increase oil production from its Mansouri field by a third to 150,000 barrels a day as it seeks to increase total production, Petroenergy Information Network said. Boeing CEO Stonecipher is backing plans to build an advanced version of the company's 747 airliner, raising the possibility of the plane's launch in the next few months, the Business reported. Afghan President Karzai was urged by two human rights organizations yesterday to prosecute war criminals after decades of human rights abuses in the nation, the NY Times said. Beating back President Bush's plan to let workers invest a small part of their Social Security taxes in private accounts is the Democratic Party's most important priority this year, the NY Times reported. Russia has as many spies in the US as the former Soviet Union had during the Cold War, and the National Security Council has instructed intelligence agencies to follow the threat closely, Time magazine reported. A US tax amnesty, offset by tax breaks in the American Jobs Creation Act, may reap about $100 billion of foreign exchange earnings for the US, the Financial Times said. Saudi Arabia's OPEC minister said crude oil at $50 a barrel has done nothing to slow economic growth, signaling the group will do little to stop a year long really in prices, Bloomberg said. China's vice premier and deputy central bank chief said they want to maintain a "stable" exchange rate, rebuffing calls from the US and Europe to let the Chinese currency strengthen, Bloomberg said. Libya auctioned off rights to explore for oil in its first such sale for 40 years, with US oil companies, led by Occidental Petroleum, winning the bulk of the bidding, Bloomberg reported. Dubai said it bought a $1 billion stake in DaimlerChrysler AG, making the Persian Gulf emirate the third-largest shareholder in the world's biggest maker of luxury cars, Bloomberg said. Israeli Prime Minister Sharon and Palestinian Authority President Abbas will hold a summit meeting next week to push forward the Middle East peace process after a 19-month lull, Bloomberg said. As many as 8 million Iraqis, or about 60% of eligible voters, voted for a National Assembly, defying insurgents to hold the country's first democratic election since 1953, Bloomberg reported. President Bush called the elections in Iraq a "resounding success" that proves the commitment of Iraqis to democracy and freedom, Bloomberg said. National Semiconductor forecast its China sales will rise by more than 20% this year on expanding demand for electronic and telecommunications products, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures are falling, heading for their biggest two-day drop in a month, after Iraq's first free election in 50 years reduced concern that the country's oil supply would be disrupted and OPEN said it may raise output in the second quarter, Bloomberg reported.

Weekend Recommendations
-Bulls and Bears: Had guests that were positive on UDI, AH, PJC, PG, INTU and mixed on ATK, DAL.
-Forbes on Fox: Had guests that were positive on HAL, WWW, TK, MHX and mixed on LLL, PTEN.
-Cashin' In: Had guests that were positive on DUK, MCD and mixed on ISL, BHP.
-Barron's: Had positive comments on SHPGY, FWHLF, TIIPF, AIZ, LEAP, IGI, JPM, FITB, FNF, PFE, LYO, ALL, EP, OMM and CRY. Had negative comments on HOV, TOL, LEN and CTX.
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on MDT, SII, INTC, SPG, ALK, UTX, NFX, BLS and DNA. Reiterated Underperform on PCZ and MU.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are higher, +.50%. to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.43%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.76%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AFL/.58
XOM/1.07
HLT/.16
K/.45
MAT/.48
SEE/.67
SYY/.36
TSN/.25
DIS/.29
WYE/.67
ZMH/.64

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
-Personal Income for December is estimated to rise 3.3% versus a .3% increase in November.
-Personal Spending for December is estimated to rise .9% versus a .2% increase in November.
-PCE Deflator(YoY) for December is estimated to rise 2.4% versus a 2.6% increase in November.
-New Home Sales for December are estimated at 1200K versus 1125K in November.
-Chicago Purchasing Manager for January is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus 61.9 in December.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to open higher in the morning on optimism over the Iraqi elections, increasing potential for meaningful US reforms, lower energy prices, short-covering and bargain hunting. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

There are a number of important economic reports and many significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week. Economic reports include (Mon.)-Personal Income/Spending, PCE Deflator, New Home Sales, Chicago Purchasing Manager (Tues.)-Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales (Wed.)-FOMC Rate Decision (Thur.)-Preliminary 4Q Non-farm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing (Fri.)-Unemployment Rate, Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence. Personal Spending, New Home Sales, Chicago Purchasing Manager, ISM Manufacturing, FOMC Rate Decision, ISM Non-Manufacturing, Change in Non-farm Payrolls and Consumer Confidence all have market-moving potential.

Mon. - AFLAC Inc.(AFL), Exxon Mobil(XOM), Hilton Hotels(HLT), Kellogg(K), Nortel Networks(NT), Walt Disney(DIS), Zimmer Holdings(ZMH) Tues. - Avon Products(AVP), Boston Scientific(BSX), Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME), Chubb Corp.(CB), Emerson Electric(EMR), Google(GOOG), HCA Inc.(HCA), Ingersoll-Rand(IR), Tyco Intl.(TYC) Wed. - Amazon.com(AMZN), Boeing(BA), Harrah's Entertainment(HET), Northrop Grumman(NOC), Pulte Homes(PHM) Thur. - Comcast (CMCSA), International Paper(IP), Sprint Corp.(FON), Starwood Hotels(HOT) Fri. - Cardinal Health(CAH), Newmont Mining(NEM), Time Warner(TWX) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a few other events that have market-moving potential. The CSFB Energy Summit(Mon.-Fri.), Lehman Brothers Industrial Conference(Tues.) and the Fed's Greenspan speaking(Fri.) could also impact trading this week.

Bottom Line: I expect US stocks to finish the week higher on a very positive outcome with the Iraqi elections, increased optimism over meaningful US reforms, declining energy prices, better fund inflows, strong earnings reports and more dovish Fed comments. Economic reports for January will likely show modest deceleration, thus keeping long-term interest rates low. The Fed will likely raise rates by 25 basis points and maintain their language of "continuing hikes at a measured pace." However, I am not ruling out the possibility of comments suggesting a slowing of the pace of their hikes and do expect this at some point in the near future. The markets would view this positively as I believe investors are worried the Fed is now raising rates unnecessarily, given slowing global growth, decelerating inflation and a stabilizing US dollar. My short-term trading indicators are still giving Sell signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Economic Week in Review

ECRI Weekly Leading Index 133.20 -.08%

Consumer Confidence for January rose to 103.4 versus estimates of 101.0 and a reading of 102.7 in December. Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to a six-month high after the economy added more jobs and incomes grew, raising the odds that spending will continue to spur the economy, Bloomberg reported. Wages and salaries rose 4.8% at an annual rate in the third quarter and a 5.7% increase in the previous three months. The percentage of consumer who saw jobs as hard to get fell to 24.7%, the lowest since August 2002, Bloomberg said. Optimism about the current economic situation rose to the highest in 31 months. "Consumer spending has been stellar for the past two quarters, so these levels of consumer optimism are evidently consistent with robust demand," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

Existing Home Sales for December fell to 6.69M versus estimates of 6.8M and 6.92M in November. Sales for all of 2004 rose 9.4% to an all-time record. "The housing sector looks very healthy," said David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. "It's down a bit, but the fundamentals are very strong in housing." The median price of an existing home rose 8.1% from the same month last year and the inventory of houses for sale fell to a record low of 3.9 months from 4.3 months, Bloomberg reported. The rate on a benchmark 30-year mortgage averaged 5.84% in 2004, well below historic norms. Increased hiring and rising wages, along with borrowing costs that are still very low by historic standards should keep home buying near last year's record in 2005, economists said.

Durable Goods Orders for December rose .6% versus estimates of a .7% increase and an upwardly revised 1.8% gain in November. Durable Goods Orders Less Transportation for December rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 1.3% increase and an upwardly revised .9% decline in November. Orders rose 8.8% for computers and related products and 17.8% for communications equipment, Bloomberg said. 2004 was the best year in a decade for makers of appliances, autos and other long-lasting items as orders surged 10.9%, Bloomberg reported.

Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 325K versus estimates of 332K and 318K the prior week. Continuing Claims were 2840K versus estimates of 2683K and 2698K prior. "The overall picture, when you look at confidence surveys and other reports, is that the labor market is doing better," said MFR Inc. Chief Economist Joshua Shapiro. The volume of help-wanted advertising in major US newspapers in December rose to its highest level in six months, the Conference Board said. "We do have on balance a pretty bright outlook for 2005 for the US economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Hoenig said. About 2 million jobs may be added to the economy this year, Hoenig also said.

Advance 4Q GDP rose 3.1% versus estimates of a 3.5% rise and a 4.0% increase in 3Q. Advance 4Q Personal Consumption rose 4.6% versus estimates of a 4.3% increase and a 5.1% gain in 3Q. Advance 4Q GDP Price Deflator rose 2.0% versus estimates of a 2.1% increase and a 1.4% gain in 3Q. The Employment Cost Index for 4Q rose .7% versus estimates of a .8% gain and a .9% increase in 3Q. For all of last year the US economy grew 4.4%, the most since 1999, Bloomberg said. The trade deficit shaved 1.7 percentage points from growth in the last quarter. The trade gap should detract less this year as a weak US dollar boosts exports, economists said. Consumer spending, inventory building and business spending were among the main contributors to the economy in the fourth quarter, Bloomberg said.

Bottom Line: Overall, last week's economic data were modestly positive. The fact that consumer confidence rose in the face of stock market declines, increased violence in Iraq, domestic terrorism fears and higher energy prices is a big positive. I continue to expect confidence to fall modestly from current levels before setting new cycle highs in the second half of the year. The record low supply of existing homes bodes well for the homebuilding sector and should spur further gains this year as mortgage rates remain very low by historic standards. The 2.1% rise in Durable Goods Orders excluding volatile transportation is a nice rebound from November's decline and remains one of the main engines of economic growth. Initial Jobless Claims were better-than-expected for the second week in a row. I continue to believe the labor market will improve at a moderate pace, thus holding down unit labor costs while allowing unemployment to decline slowly. GDP growth was exceptionally strong for all of 2004, however 4Q growth was disappointing considering the effects of hurricane rebuilding, tax incentives, etc. In my opinion, the Fed should slow their pace of rate hikes as economic growth may fall below 3% this quarter, the dollar stabilizes and measures of inflation decelerate. The 4.6% gain in personal spending, after a 5.1% increase in 3Q, is exceptional and once again proves the death of the US consumer has been greatly exaggerated. I expect the consumer to remain relatively healthy as job prospects improve, energy prices fall from current levels and long-term interest rates remain low. The small decline in the ECRI Weekly Leading Index is also a positive considering the prior week's very strong gain.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,171.36 +.30%

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Bottom Line: The bears’ inability to send shares lower before the lifting of much uncertainty next week is a positive. Crude oil futures were unable to close above the psychologically important $50/bbl. level even in the face of cold weather, the possibility of extreme violence in Iraq, an OPEC meeting and a better-than-expected GDP report from China. Utility stocks made new highs for this cycle and the transports rebounded from recent losses. Outperformance by semiconductors was also a positive. Overall, there were enough positive events this last week to send shares higher under normal circumstances. However, rising apprehension ahead of the weekend held gains in check.

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,171.36 +.30%
Dow 10,427.20 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,035.83 +.08%
Russell 2000 613.00 +.31%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,517.75 +.24%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,010.66 +.13%
S&P Barra Growth 563.80 +.31%
S&P Barra Value 603.28 +.28%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.52 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 745.53 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Technology 466.98 +.58%
Transports 3,545.94 +2.15%
Utilities 339.56 +2.37%
Put/Call .77 -7.23%
NYSE Arms 1.29 -22.75%
Volatility(VIX) 13.24 -7.8%
ISE Sentiment 179.00 +14.74%
AAII % Bulls 26.43 -21.48%
US Dollar 83.48 +.20%
CRB 284.18 unch.

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 47.18 -3.02%
Unleaded Gasoline 130.82 +.67%
Natural Gas 6.26 +.14%
Heating Oil 133.80 -3.67%
Gold 428.90 -.14%
Base Metals 122.54 +1.23%
Copper 143.80 +.28%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.13% -.10%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.66% -.18%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.59%
Semis +2.51%
Utilities +2.37%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.38%
Internet -1.44%
Boxmakers -2.08%

*% Gain or loss for the week

Mid-day Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,168.36 -.53%
Dow 10,410.22 -.54%
NASDAQ 2,031.46 -.79%
Russell 2000 612.26 -.75%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,494.34 -.49%
S&P Barra Growth 562.88 -.45%
S&P Barra Value 601.83 -.50%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.77 -.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 744.59 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Technology 465.75 -.91%
Transports 3,529.12 -.71%
Utilities 337.62 -.54%
Put/Call .72 -14.29%
NYSE Arms 1.55 +68.48%
Volatility(VIX) 13.37 +.98%
ISE Sentiment 183.00 -.54%
US Dollar 83.55 +.14%
CRB 283.86 -.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 47.32 -3.05%
Unleaded Gasoline 131.40 -2.80%
Natural Gas 6.24 -1.84%
Heating Oil 134.50 -3.72%
Gold 426.90 -.35%
Base Metals 122.54 +1.21%
Copper 143.85 +.81%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.13% -1.95%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.05%
Homebuilders +.76%
Disk Drives +.50%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -1.57%
Software -1.57%
Oil Service -1.85%

Market Movers
G +11.98% after Procter & Gamble agreed to buy it for $57 billion. PG -2.87%
SNDK +11.82% after beating 4Q estimates.
LAVA +17.05% after JP Morgan added it to Focus List, target $16.
MSTR +15.29% after beating 4Q estimates and multiple upgrades.
DV +13.85% after missing 2Q estimates, but Merrill Lynch upgrade to Neutral.
NATL +13.85% on strong demand for IPO.
ORCT +10.0% on continuing optimism over 4Q results.
KRON +7.4% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q/05 estimates.
MCK +9.13% after beating 3Q estimates, reiterating forecast and Raymond James upgrade to Outperform.
OSTK -15.25% on profit-margin worries after beating 4Q estimates.
OSIS -12.95% after beating 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q/4Q outlook.
OVNT -12.83% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q/05 guidance.
MIL -7.0% after missing 4Q estimates and Robert Baird downgrade to Neutral.
MRK -9.85% after am appeals court invalidated the patent on a version of the company’s osteoporosis drug Fosamax and US regulators opened an informal probe into the Vioxx recall.

Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon

Economic Data
-Advance 4Q GDP rose 3.1% versus estimates of a 3.5% gain and a 4.0% increase in 3Q.
-Advance 4Q Personal Consumption rose 4.6% versus estimates of a 4.3% gain and a 5.1% increase in 3Q.
-4Q Employment Cost Index rose .7% versus estimates of a .8% increase and a .9% gain in 3Q.

Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on CL, SII, WYNN, ADP, TPX, BC, PXD, KSS, MSFT and MUR. Reiterated Underperform on EW, TRB and MKL. Cut KEA to Underperform.
-Citi Smith Barney: Upgraded LMT to Buy, target $66. Upgraded TSM to Buy, target $10.60. Said to Buy UNFI ahead of quarter. Reiterated Buy on UPS, target $90. Reiterated Buy on CSCO, target $30. Reiterated Buy on IRF, target $50. Reiterated Sell on SNDK, target $22. Reiterated Buy on MRO, target $45. Reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90. Reiterated Buy on INTU, target $54. Reiterated Buy on BC, target $54. Reiterated Buy on DOW, target $60. Reiterated Sell on GNTX, target $30. Reiterated Buy on TXT, target $85. Reiterated Buy on WFR, target $15. Reiterated Buy on MSFT, target $31. Citi reiterated Buy on FDRY, target $14. Reiterated Buy on SEBL, target $12. Reiterated Buy on FSLB, target $22.50. Reiterated Buy on SANM, target $9.50.
-JP Morgan: Rated SOLD Overweight.
-CSFB: Rated SOLD Outperform, target $18. Rated POM Outperform, target $23. Rated BBG Outperform, target $36. Reiterated Outperform on YELL.
-Legg Mason: Raised SRZ to Buy, target $54.
-Bear Stearns: Raised IBM to Outperform.
-Merrill Lunch: Raised BXP to Buy, target $64. Raised PKI to Buy, target $26. Removed PG from Focus 1 List.
-Prudential: Raised DWA to Overweight, target $41.
-Morgan Stanley: Raised PG to Overweight, target $64.
-CIBC: Cut MEOH to Sector Underperform, target $17.50.

Mid-day News
US stocks are lower mid-day on worries over slowing growth and violence in Iraq ahead of elections. Chief executives are declining offers to sit on boards of public companies because they see such positions as “too risky” and time consuming, the Wall Street Journal reported. Icelandic clothing brand 66 Degrees North has found success in the US retail market, since its launch in September by a Connecticut woman with no background in fashion, the Wall Street Journal reported. The UN Security Council should not delay on forcing Iran to stop violating international agreements on nuclear safeguards, said Jackie Sanders, President Bush’s envoy for nuclear non-proliferation. US mosques contain books and pamphlets that call non-Muslims “infidels” and encourage intolerance against Western culture, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a study by human rights group Freedom Watch. The NASD says arbitration awards to investors jumped 20% last year to a high of $194 million, the Wall Street Journal reported. US membership in unions fell in 2004 to its lowest point in more than 60 years, the NY Times reported. Four labor unions have filed suit to prevent the Bush administration from implementing new rules at the Dept. of Homeland Security that would give managers more power to promote and give raises based on employee performance, the NY Times reported. Cendant may sell its Wright Express Corp. unit for $1.2 billion instead of spinning off the auto-fleet charge-card business in an IPO, the NY Post said. Canada’s Bank of Montreal is considering spending as much as $1.6 billion on acquisitions in the US, the Globe and Mail reported. Logan Airport’s airfares dropped 11.6% in the third quarter of 2004 from a year earlier, and are lower than they were in 1995, the Boston Globe reported. NYSE CEO John Thain said the exchange may open trading at 8:30 am, Bloomberg reported. San Francisco-are planning officials predict modest job growth through next year as the region recovers from losses related to the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, the Chronicle reported. Libya tomorrow will pick the winners in its first drilling rights auction in 40 years, part of a plan to attract $30 billion of investments to double oil production this decade, Bloomberg said. Lehman Brothers said investors should exit bets on a US dollar drop against the euro in advance of an expected increase in the Fed’s benchmark rate next week, Bloomberg said. The US will become the world’s largest wine market by 2008, overtaking France, Germany and Italy in terms of the amount of wine sold, Bloomberg reported. Shareholders of Molson voted in favor of a $3.4 billion merger with Adolph Coors after the companies sweetened the offer twice to thwart investor opposition to the deal, Bloomberg said. Unilever, the European consumer products maker that cut annual forecasts for the first time last year, will fall farther behind Procter & Gamble after the US company buys more profitable Gillette for $57 billion, Bloomberg said. Merck said today that the US SEC has started a formal probe into the company’s recall of its Vioxx painkiller, Bloomberg reported. Merck’s patent for a once-a-week version of the osteoporosis drug Fosamax was invalidated by a US appeals court, opening the door to generic competition beginning in 2008, Bloomberg said. Crude oil is falling on signs OPEC will postpone additional production cuts, Bloomberg said. US 10-year T-notes are rising the most in seven weeks after a government report showed GDP slowed and inflation rose less than expected, Bloomberg said.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my internet longs and oil service shorts are offsetting losses in my networking and retail longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio remains 100% net long. The tone of the market is weaker today as most sectors are falling, the advance/decline line is poor and volume is decent. On the positive side, energy prices are falling ahead of the possibility of extreme violence in Iraq, long-term interest rates are dropping, the ARMS index is spiking and I-Banks and homebuilders are outperforming. I continue to believe the major indices will rally further next week on an end to the uncertainty over the elections in Iraq, falling energy prices, low long-term interest rates, the Fed rate hike and comments, good earnings reports, a stabilizing US dollar, merger activity and an optimistic State of the Union address. I expect US stocks to rise from current levels into the close as shorts that have had exceptional months begin to cover ahead of the numerous market-moving events next week.