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Friday, June 09, 2006
Thursday, June 08, 2006
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Lehman Brothers(LH) advised investors to stop betting on a drop in the US dollar in the next few weeks on speculation the Fed will lift its benchmark interest rate this month.
- The US dollar had its biggest gain against the euro in two months, and reached a six-week high versus the yen, as rising global interest rates sent emerging stock markets into a tailspin.
- The killing of the most-wanted terrorist in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, presents an opportunity for US and Iraqi leaders to rally rival factions toward a peaceful reconciliation, analysts said.
- US stocks rebounded from the worst international equity-market slump in two years after a shift in investor sentiment favored the dollar and American companies whose earnings are less vulnerable to a slowing economy.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) raised its second-quarter sales and profit forecasts as more consumers purchase handsets in India and China.
- Hedge funds focused on Asia had their worst month since September 2002 in May as the region’s stock indices tumbled, suggesting managers need to increase their hedging to weather the current emerging markets stocks sell-off.
Financial Times:
- IMF Chief Economist Raghuram Rajan says incentives for hedge fund managers are the reason for recent falls in risky assets prices.
- Nasdaq Stock Market’s(NDAQ) proposed acquisition of London Stock Exchange Plc may be put on hold until 2007 at the earliest, citing Joe Gawronski, chief operating officer at Rosenblatt Securities.
- General Motors(GM) will “reward” those suppliers who remain loyal to it in times of crisis.
New Zealand Herald:
- Restaurant Brands New Zealand Ltd. is considering opening Starbucks Coffee(SBUX) stores at the nation’s airports and in regional towns as part of a plan to double the franchise’s outlets.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s money supply growth accelerated in May and banks almost doubled new yuan lending, suggesting the central ban may take further measures to damp lending.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs:
- Rated (MS), (TRAD), (JEF) and (AMTD) Outperform.
- Rated (AGE) Underperform.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.35%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (B) 2-for-1
- (CGI) 2-for-1
- (EXPO) 2-for-1
- (FD) 2-for-1
- (MAR) 2-for-1
- (TRN) 3-for-2
- (BECN) 3-for-2
- (CEDC) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- The Trade Deficit for April is estimated to widen to -$65.0B versus -$62.0B in March.
- The Import Price Index for May is estimated to rise .7% versus a 2.1% gain in April.
Bloomberg:
- Lehman Brothers(LH) advised investors to stop betting on a drop in the US dollar in the next few weeks on speculation the Fed will lift its benchmark interest rate this month.
- The US dollar had its biggest gain against the euro in two months, and reached a six-week high versus the yen, as rising global interest rates sent emerging stock markets into a tailspin.
- The killing of the most-wanted terrorist in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, presents an opportunity for US and Iraqi leaders to rally rival factions toward a peaceful reconciliation, analysts said.
- US stocks rebounded from the worst international equity-market slump in two years after a shift in investor sentiment favored the dollar and American companies whose earnings are less vulnerable to a slowing economy.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) raised its second-quarter sales and profit forecasts as more consumers purchase handsets in India and China.
- Hedge funds focused on Asia had their worst month since September 2002 in May as the region’s stock indices tumbled, suggesting managers need to increase their hedging to weather the current emerging markets stocks sell-off.
Financial Times:
- IMF Chief Economist Raghuram Rajan says incentives for hedge fund managers are the reason for recent falls in risky assets prices.
- Nasdaq Stock Market’s(NDAQ) proposed acquisition of London Stock Exchange Plc may be put on hold until 2007 at the earliest, citing Joe Gawronski, chief operating officer at Rosenblatt Securities.
- General Motors(GM) will “reward” those suppliers who remain loyal to it in times of crisis.
New Zealand Herald:
- Restaurant Brands New Zealand Ltd. is considering opening Starbucks Coffee(SBUX) stores at the nation’s airports and in regional towns as part of a plan to double the franchise’s outlets.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s money supply growth accelerated in May and banks almost doubled new yuan lending, suggesting the central ban may take further measures to damp lending.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs:
- Rated (MS), (TRAD), (JEF) and (AMTD) Outperform.
- Rated (AGE) Underperform.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.35%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (B) 2-for-1
- (CGI) 2-for-1
- (EXPO) 2-for-1
- (FD) 2-for-1
- (MAR) 2-for-1
- (TRN) 3-for-2
- (BECN) 3-for-2
- (CEDC) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- The Trade Deficit for April is estimated to widen to -$65.0B versus -$62.0B in March.
- The Import Price Index for May is estimated to rise .7% versus a 2.1% gain in April.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology stocks in the region after Texas Instruments(TXN) raised its forecast. It appears to me most US stocks have put in place meaningful bottoms. However, I continue to believe commodity, emerging market and deep cyclical stocks will underperform through year-end. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to build on gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
***Alert***
I have been unable to post again today as a result of technical problems with Blogger.com. Hopefully they will fix this problem soon. I will try and post the Friday Watch within the next hour.
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US dollar rose for a third day against the euro, the longest rally since March, as Federal Reserve officials signaled they may raise interest rates this month to keep inflation contained.
- Porsche AG, the carmaker with the highest profit margins in the world, went from 32nd place to first in a leading auto-quality survey.
- The US House today passed a bill to raise maximum fines 10-fold against broadcasters for airing indecent material, sending the measure to President Bush to be signed into law.
- Borrowing by US consumers rose by the most in 10 months in April as Americans took out more car loans and charged more of their credit cards.
- Crude oil fell for a third day in NY as Iran considered incentives to end the country’s nuclear research and a report showed US oil and gas stockpiles increased.
- South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point to 4.25%, a three-year high.
Financial Times:
- Walt Disney(DIS) has started licensing fresh fruit in European food retailers.
London-based Times:
- Goldman Sachs Group(GS) may raise over $10 billion for a new private equity fund.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.50% to -1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (NSM)/.38
- (QSII)/.23
- (ZQK)/.03
- (REY)/.36
- (SHFL)/.22
- (SFD)/.06
Upcoming Splits
- (SCSS) 3-for-2
- (B) 2-for-1
- (CGI) 2-for-1
- (FD) 2-for-1
- (MAR) 2-for-1
- (TRN) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 330K versus 336K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2425K versus 2433K prior.
10:00 pm EST
- Wholesale Inventories for April are estimated to rise .5% versus a .2% gain in March.
Bloomberg:
- The US dollar rose for a third day against the euro, the longest rally since March, as Federal Reserve officials signaled they may raise interest rates this month to keep inflation contained.
- Porsche AG, the carmaker with the highest profit margins in the world, went from 32nd place to first in a leading auto-quality survey.
- The US House today passed a bill to raise maximum fines 10-fold against broadcasters for airing indecent material, sending the measure to President Bush to be signed into law.
- Borrowing by US consumers rose by the most in 10 months in April as Americans took out more car loans and charged more of their credit cards.
- Crude oil fell for a third day in NY as Iran considered incentives to end the country’s nuclear research and a report showed US oil and gas stockpiles increased.
- South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point to 4.25%, a three-year high.
Financial Times:
- Walt Disney(DIS) has started licensing fresh fruit in European food retailers.
London-based Times:
- Goldman Sachs Group(GS) may raise over $10 billion for a new private equity fund.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.50% to -1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (NSM)/.38
- (QSII)/.23
- (ZQK)/.03
- (REY)/.36
- (SHFL)/.22
- (SFD)/.06
Upcoming Splits
- (SCSS) 3-for-2
- (B) 2-for-1
- (CGI) 2-for-1
- (FD) 2-for-1
- (MAR) 2-for-1
- (TRN) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 330K versus 336K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2425K versus 2433K prior.
10:00 pm EST
- Wholesale Inventories for April are estimated to rise .5% versus a .2% gain in March.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, pressured by commodity and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open lower and to rise modestly into the afternoon, finishing slightly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
***Alert***
I have been unable to publish all day due to technical problems with Blogger.com, the host of this site. I will keep trying to post later this evening. Sorry for the inconvenience.
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