Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Shares of LG.Philips LCD Co., the world’s second-largest liquid-crystal display maker, may fall after the company slashed its quarterly earnings forecast days after rival AU Optronics(AUO) cut estimates.
- Fed Chairman Bernanke said it’s in China’s interest to make the yuan’s exchange rate more flexible and the world economy more balanced.
- Crude oil fell a second day in NY as a government report may show US gasoline inventories rose for a seventh straight week.

Wall Street Journal:
- Blackstone Group LP and Carlyle Group, two private equity firms seeking to hold IPOs this year, have postponed their plans and may not list.

Economic Daily News:
- Taiwan’s central bank will raise interest rates at its quarterly policy meeting later this month.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.16%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BBY)/.36
- (CA)/.19
- (FLS)/.52
- (FRE)/1.21
- (GS)/4.19

Upcoming Splits
- (KMG) 2-for-1
- (LUK) 2-for-1
- (AIT) 3-for-2
- (BMI) 2-for-1
- (CLDN) 3-for-2
- (DDE) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- The Producer Price Index for May is estimated to rise .4% versus a .9% increase in April.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for May is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% increase in April.
- Advance Retail Sales for May are estimated to rise .1% versus a .5% increase in April

10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for April are estimated to rise .6% versus a .7% increase in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, pressured by commodity and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rise into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Monday, June 12, 2006

Stocks Finish at Session Lows on Economic Worries and Stock Options Concerns

Indices
S&P 500 1,236.40 -1.27%
DJIA 10,792.58 -.91%
NASDAQ 2,091.32 -2.05%
Russell 2000 683.19 -2.59%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,411.02 -1.49%
S&P Barra Growth 572.29 -1.24%
S&P Barra Value 662.40 -1.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 596.06 -.81%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 787.16 -1.60%
Morgan Stanley Technology 476.74 -1.81%
Transports 4,458.78 -1.84%
Utilities 412.74 +.12%
Put/Call .94 -6.93%
NYSE Arms 2.46 +78.18%
Volatility(VIX) 20.96 +15.67%
ISE Sentiment 129.00 +22.86%
US Dollar 85.93 +.24%
CRB 338.39 -.50%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 70.37 +.01%
Unleaded Gasoline 212.40 -.01%
Natural Gas 6.31 +1.46%
Heating Oil 199.58 +.23%
Gold 608.00 -.54%
Base Metals 208.04 -1.91%
Copper 319.70 -.98%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.97% +.39%

Leading Sectors
Utilities +.12%
Tobacco -.29%
Broadcasting -.34%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -4.61%
Steel -4.71%
Alternative Energy -5.04%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Rated (OCR) Outperform, target $57.

Piper Jaffray:
- Rated (ARRS) Outperform, target $18.
- Rated (FDRY) Outperform, target $18.

Banc of America:
- Rated (NDAQ) Buy, target $39.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US dollar gained against the euro for a sixth day, its longest rally since November, on speculation the Fed will raise rates for a 17th straight time.
- Fatah gunmen loyal to Palestinian Authority President Abbas stormed the Hamas Cabinet office in the West Bank City of Ramallah today and set the building on fire.
- Stocks in emerging markets worldwide resumed their slump on concern higher interest rates will depress global economic growth. Colombia’s stock exchange had its first automatic trading suspension since the IGBC index was created in 2001, as its drop exceeded 10%.
- Crude oil fell on speculation that a government report will show US gas supplies rose for a seventh straight week.

Automotive News:
- Billionaire hedge fund investor and Democratic political activist George Soros may spend as much as $200 million to fund a joint venture with Chinese carmaker Chery Automobile to produce vehicles for the US market, citing Chery.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today as losses in my Internet longs, Networking longs and Semi longs more than offset gains in my Index shorts, Energy-related shorts and Base Metal shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market was very negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, almost every sector fell and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bearish, however there were some positives again. The NYSE Arms finished at an elevated 2.46 and the VIX rose 16% today, finishing above 20. As well, oil is trading near session lows and continues to act “toppy” heading into hurricane season. The 10-year and the U.S. dollar maintained recent gains throughout the day. The broad market continues to trade as though multiple large funds are liquidating, which is very likely considering the amount of leverage associated with commodities. Overseas markets will likely come under pressure again tonight. I suspect tomorrow's PPI may actually be a positive for US equities.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Hawkish Fed Comments and Ongoing Stock Options Concerns

BOTTOM LINE: I am now having trouble with my own internal systems, thus I was unable to post "Today's Headlines." Hopefully, I can have these problems fixed soon. The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour as losses in my Networking longs, Semi longs and Internet longs more than offset gains in my Energy-related shorts and Base Metal shorts. I added to my (EEM), (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts and was stopped-out of an Internet long this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is falling and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is bearish considering recent losses and relatively little new negative news. The Fed's Fisher just told reporters that the Fed does have "some angst" about inflation. This seems to be pressuring the broad market again. I expect FOMC members to continue talking hawkish through the next meeting. Thereafter, I expect their comments to become decidedly more dovish.
I expect stocks to trade mixed into the close as short-covering, bargain hunting and lower energy prices offsets economic worries.

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The military wing of the Hamas movement that controls the Palestinian government fired rockets into Israel in retaliation for attacks in Gaza yesterday, ending a 16-month truce.
- Finance ministers from the G-8 said the global economy is still “strong” after stocks tumbled around the world.
- The US dollar posted its first weekly rally versus the euro since January as Fed officials made hawkish comments and as investors fled emerging markets for US assets.
- The Australian stock market may end a three-year winning streak because of falling metals prices and rising borrowing costs.
- Treasury investors, who two weeks ago questioned Fed Chairman Bernanke’s resolve in fighting inflation, are giving him a vote of confidence.
- Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm of the Atlantic Ocean’s 2006 hurricane season, won’t be windy enough to become a hurricane, forecasters said.
- The number of foreign troops in Iraq will drop to fewer than 100,000 by January and most will have left within 18 months, according to that nation’s national security adviser.
- A more peaceful world and fewer major wars globally led to a decrease in the number of refugees last year to 8.4 million, a 26-year low, according to the United Nations agency that cares for people driven from their homes by wars and natural disasters. The number of refuges declined for the fifth straight year, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees said in a recent report. The agency attributed much of the decline to 752,100 Afghans and 56,200 Iraqis who returned home.

Wall Street Journal:
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA is considering buying Texas Regional Bancshares(TRBS) to expand its US-Mexico unit, the most profitable.

NY Times:
- Job applicants may find their postings on Internet sites offend future employers who have started conducting background checks of prospects on the Web.

Washington Post:
- Newt Gingrich, former Georgia congressman and House speaker, may run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 if no single Republican candidate has emerged by late next year.
- More immigrants seeking to live in the US are buying US businesses to get “investor visas.”

LA Times:
- Los Angeles’s homicide rate has fallen 11% in the first six months of this year.

San Diego Union-Tribune:
- Southern California’s slowing housing sales won’t erode equity gains homeowners have amassed in the past years, citing a report by Harvard University.

Barron’s:
- Merrill Lynch’s(MER) Saly Glassman won the No. 1 spot in Barron’s list of the top 100 women financial advisers for her management of $1.05 billion.

Financial Times:
- Millions of dollars are being transferred out of traditional tax havens and into states such as Delaware, Nevada and Wyoming in the US where information sharing with tax authorities is less strict.
- Emerging Markets are heading for a “period of vulnerability,” citing Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance.

Der Spiegel:
- John Browne, CEO of BP Plc, said it’s “very probable” that oil prices will drop to about $40 a barrel in the medium term, citing an interview. Oil prices of $25 to $30 a barrel are possible “in the very long term,” Brown said.

Mail on Sunday:
- Signet Group Plc, the world’s largest jeweler, is in talks with US rival Zale Corp.(ZLC) about a possible $4.2 billion alliance.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (LM), (WEBX), (APA), (APC), (XTO), (ELY), (ROLL), (PDCO), (GNTX) and (GRMN).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.10%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (LEH)1.61

Upcoming Splits
- (BECN) 3-for-2
- (CEDC) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
- The budget deficit for May is estimated to widen to -$39.0B versus -$35.4B in April.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower, weighed down by exporting shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rise into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.