Thursday, June 21, 2007

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The yen traded near the weakest level in more than four years against the US dollar on speculation Japan’s lowest interest rate among major economies spurred investment funded by loans in the currency.
- Nelson Peltz, the investor who waged successful battles to raise share prices at HJ Heinz(HNZ) and Wendy’s Intl.(WEN), bought a 3% stake in Kraft Foods.
- Blackstone Group LP, the buyout firm that made almost $200 billion of acquisitions in the past two decades, raised $4.13 billion in the largest US IPO in five years.
- Chinese and Russian sovereign wealth funds intend to invest primarily in corporate bonds and stocks, said Clay Lowery, the US Treasury’s top international official, citing feedback from the government of both countries.
- Bear Stearns(BSC) may take over about $3.2 billion of loans that banks and securities firms made to one of its money-losing hedge funds to prevent creditors from seizing more assets.

Wall Street Journal:
- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts may go public after rival buyout firm Blackstone Group LP’s offering priced at the high end of its range, citing an unidentified person close to KKR.

Financial Times:
- Moves to change the taxation of private equity firms could be “very dangerous” and prompt the industry to move to more favorable tax locations, citing an interview with Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs(GS).
- The creation of the world’s first derivatives contracts linked to diamond prices is at the center of two initiatives by bankers and diamond experts in the coming days.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- comScore released its US May internet search query data today. Google(GOOG) continued to gain share. Google’s query share increased 100 basis points M/M to a record high 50.7% of the US market. This market share gain continues a very consistent trend for Google and highlights a potential gating factor to Yahoo!(YHOO)’s attempts to gain search revenue share. Yahoo!’s(YHOO) share dropped 40 basis points M/M to 26.4%, its lowest share since at least 2003.

Business Week:
- Cleveland Biolabs(CBLI), the maker of a radiation protection compound, could secure a $200 million US Defense Dept. contract by the end of the summer. Based on that possibility, Stephen Brozak of WBB Securities rated the stock a “buy” and said no other product protects as much from radiation exposure.
- Shares of Deere & Co.(DE) will continue to rise even after increasing almost 80% since August. William Harnisch of the hedge fund Peconic Partners said global demand for human and animal food and corn-derived ethanol will send the shares to $150 each in a year to 15 months.
- Document Security Systems(DSC) is attracting investors as counterfeiting rises. The company has the top technology against counterfeiting and should have sales of $200 million in five years, citing Vincent Carrino, president of Brookhaven Capital Management.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.09%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- (GILD) 2-for-1
- (OMC) 2-for-1
- (YUM) 2-for-1
- (CCF) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Pianalto speaking
could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs on More Economic Optimism

Market Performance Summary
Market Gauges
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary

Style Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
Today in IBD
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Intraday Chart/Quote
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

***Alert***

Blogging will be light through tomorrow due to a scheduling conflict. Sorry for the inconvenience. Thanks for reading!

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows on Rise in Long-Term Rates

Market Performance Summary
Market Gauges
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rise in Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is about average. The major averages and breadth have weakened over the last couple of hours as the 10-year yield hit a session high of 5.14%. As I said yesterday, bonds have become very overbought short term, however, I expect the yield to move back down to 4.75% during the third quarter. The underlying tone of the market remains pretty good despite today’s sell-off. Many stocks are substantially outperforming the major averages once again. As well, the airline, retail, I-banking, wireless, semi, Internet and alternative energy sectors are substantially outperforming. The Investors Intelligence survey is showing more bullishness this week. However, as you can see in these charts, this survey has not been a good contrary indicator since the bottom in 2003. There are many others that have a much better track record in gauging “herd” sentiment. One of my favorites, the AAII, comes out tomorrow. My intraday gauge of investor angst is at an above-average level. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on stabilizing long-term rates, buyout speculation, short-covering and bargain-hunting.