Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The euro declined the most against the dollar in almost two months after Europe’s service industries weakened and raised concern that Jean-Claude Trichet’s reluctance to cut interest rates will hamper growth.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) unveiled higher-prices models of its iPhone mobile handset and iPod media player with double the memory of older versions, altering its lineup for the second time in six months to encourage shoppers to spend more.

- Computer Sciences(CSC) rose the most in more than two years in NY trading after third-quarter profit topped analysts’ estimates.
- Whirlpool(WHR) said fourth-quarter profit rose more than analysts estimated, sparking the largest appliance maker’s biggest gain on the NYSE in nine months.
- Perot Systems(PER) rose the most in more than four years after fourth-quarter profit and sales topped analysts’ estimates.
- Illumina, the market of tools used to analyze genetic material and diagnose disease, rose the most in three weeks after forecasting profit that tops analysts’ estimates.

- Worldwide investment in clean energy technologies, driven by the need to address climate change, could reach a total of $7 trillion through 2030, according to a study by Cambridge Energy Research Assoc.
- Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, Sees Up to 15% Drop for Gold.
- Sugar inventories that rose 19% last year will reach a record within months as farmers from Brazil to India contribute to a growing glut.
- Crude oil is falling more than $2/bbl. on a rising US dollar, less speculation by investment funds, decelerating global demand and record global production.

Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) will probably raise its $44.6 billion offer for Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) to avoid a lengthy battle. Sandeep Aggarwal, an analyst with Oppenheimer, said no other company wants Yahoo as much as Microsoft does and the latter will have to raise its bid to something in the range of $36 to $40 a share.
- Microsoft’s(MSFT) Yahoo(YHOO) Gambit.
- Chinese Investors Relying on ‘Olympic Put’ for Rally.

Businessweek.com:
- Buffett Stock Screen Shows 60 Candidates.

CNBC:
- Wilbur Ross, chairman of NY-based WL Ross, said he’s still looking at several bond insurers and may make a decision on investing in the next few weeks.

Marginal Revolution:
- Commercial loans from large banks are at an all time high and increasingly rapidly.

Dealbreaker:
-
Goldman Sachs’ latest hedge fund, which was the largest launch in the history of the industry, had a rough first month. The fund is down 6% for January, according to a source familiar with the results.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- Lennar(LEN) attracts major backer for S.F. projects.

-
New Intel(INTC) chip sets a record, doubles processing power.

LA Times:
- Top corporate insiders last month bought more of their companies’ shares than they sold for the first time since 1995, while the volume of shares sold short last month grew to 3.7% of NYSE-traded companies’ total shares outstanding, the highest since at least 1931.

USA Today:
- Farmland more valuable than ever.

AP:
- US-backed Sunni Muslim tribesmen found about 50 bodies in a mass grave west of the Iraqi city of Samarra, citing local officials.
About 200 bodies were unearthed in recent months from mass graves around nearby Lake Tharthar, an area that was controlled by al-Qaeda until an uprising this year by local tribes.

De Telegraaf:
- Corporate Express NV is in “exploratory” talks with Staples Inc.(SPLS) to be bought.

Reforma:

- Mexico’s wind-generated power industry will receive $4.5 billion in international and domestic investments in the next five years.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Declines, Prices Paid Falls

- ISM Non-Manufacturing for January fell to 44.6 versus estimates of 52.5 and a reading of 53.2 in December.

BOTTOM LINE: US service industries unexpectedly shrank in January, Bloomberg reported. The New Orders component fell to 43.5 versus 53.9 the prior month. New Export Orders rose to 52.0 from 50.0 in November. The Employment component fell to 43.9 from 51.8 the prior month. The Prices Paid component fell to 70.7 from 71.5 in December. Weekly retails sales rose a sluggish .5% this week. According to Intrade.com, the odds of a recession beginning this year are still down from 77.5% a couple of weeks ago to 68% today, notwithstanding this report. As well, the US dollar index is rising substantially. Fed fund futures now imply a 100% chance for another 50 basis point rate cut at the March 18 meeting, which is up from a 68.0% chance yesterday. I suspect this number will see a substantial snapback next month. I still expect overall US growth to accelerate meaningfully as the year progresses.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Value (-.23%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+.93%), Gaming (+.78%) and Hospitals (+.14%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

HEW, WHR, OMI, YTEC, ILMN, OSIS, PSYS, WYNN, BPHX, TZIX, GOOG, RCII, TNDM, MANT, PRGO, FOSL, ACOR, CVCO, AVTR, SNDK, ISRG, CBRL, LVS, HOT and MAR

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Monday, February 04, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Moody’s Investors Service(MCO) is considering a new ratings system based on numbers for structured-finance securities that would abandon the letter grades created by founder John Moody about a century ago.
- Seagate Technology(STX), the world’s largest maker of hard-disk drives, raised its quarterly dividend by 20% and announced plans to buy back as much as $2.5 billion of stock over the next two years.

- Investors should sell the Australian dollar, according to BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank. The currency, known as the Aussie, will fall to 77 US cents by year-end and 65 cents by the end of 2009, according to Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of currency strategy at BNP.
- Billionaire real estate developer Sam Zell bought a 7.7% stake in Starwood Hotels & Resorts(HOT) to become the company’s second-biggest shareholder, causing the shares to rise 4.8%.
- Iran’s new space center built to send a research satellite into orbit is a “troubling development” because it employs the same technology used for producing long-range ballistic missiles, the US state Dept. said.
- Australia Raises Interest Rate to 7% to Curb Prices.

Wall Street Journal:
- If credible bidders don’t emerge to challenge Microsoft’s(MSFT) $44.6 billion offer for Yahoo!(YHOO), the Web titan will likely have to resort to a tried-and-true method for securing a higher price: playing hard to get.
- Issues Recede in ’08 Contest As Voters Focus on Character.
- Obama Closes In on Clinton As McCain Lengthens Lead.
- Actively Traded ETFs: A Step Closer to Reality.

BusinessWeek.com:
- The World’s Most Influential Headhunters.
- Teradyne(TER): A Tempting Tech Pick.

Forbes.com:
- Prominent new hedge funds pulled in slightly more money last year than in 2006 largely because savvy bets on the housing market pumped up assets at a small handful of funds.

IBD:
- Q4 Earnings Really Weren’t Too Bad – Except For Banking.

USA Today.com:
- Senate calls timeout on economic stimulus plan.

Reuters:
- News Corp.(NWS/A) lifts outlook, sees no ad slowdown.

Financial Times:
- China ‘on course for growth slowdown’.
- Microsoft(MSFT) hits back at Google(GOOG).

TimesOnline:
- The West’s biggest oil companies are in talks with the Government of Iraq to boost the country’s oil and gas output.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (RIMM), target $140.
- Rated (AKAM) Buy, target $51.
- Reiterated Buy on (ADM), target $52.
- Maintained Buy on (NWS/A), target $26.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.19%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CME)/3.58
- (AVP)/.29
- (EMR)/.64
- (LPX)/-.33
- (TYC)/.61
- (NYX)/.66
- (WHR)/2.15
- (DUK)/.24
- (DIS)/.52
- (THQI)/.35
- (JDSU)/.11
- (NBR)/.73
- (CBG)/.73
- (CAKE)/.26
- (INSP)/.24
- (FORM)/.40

Upcoming Splits
- (CJR) 2-for-1
- (JASO) 3-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

- The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for January is estimated to fall to 52.4 versus 53.2 in December.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Lacker speaking, weekly retail sales report, (UAUA) analyst meeting, (STT) analyst meeting, (JAVA) analyst meeting, Cowen & Co. Aerospace/Defense Conference, Thomas Weisel Tech/Telecom/Internet Conference, Merrill Lynch Global Pharma/Biotech/Medical Device Conference and CSFB Energy Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and shipbuilding stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finished Lower, Weighed Down by Financial, Retail and Homebuilding Shares

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