Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he offered to shore up $800 billion of municipal bonds guaranteed by troubled MBIA Inc.(MBI), Ambac Financial(ABK) and FGIC Corp. in a bid to gain 33% of the debt insurance market.
- Bank of America(BAC), Citigroup(C) and four other US lenders agreed with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to take new steps to help borrowers in danger of foreclosure stay in their homes.
- Bill Miller Says Microsoft(MSFT) Will Need to ‘Enhance’ Yahoo(YHOO) Offer.

- Boeing Co.(BA), the world’s second-biggest maker of commercial aircraft, said its planes may be flying on a mix of biofuel and jet kerosene within five years. A Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. Boeing 747 is scheduled to make the first biofuel-powered test flight for a commercial plane later this month. Boeing is focusing on so-called second-generation biofuels such as algae, oil from Babassu nuts and the hardy Jatropha bush.
- Genworth Financial(GNW), the insurer divested by GE, expects its US mortgage insurance business to rebound next year.
- AIG(AIG) Credit-Default Swap Losses Won’t Be ‘Material’.
- Monsanto Co.(MON), the world’s biggest seed producer, raised its 2008 profit forecast because of demand for week killer and genetically modified corn and soybeans.
- Julius Baer Group rose the most in 10 days in Zurich trading on speculation that Goldman Sachs(GS) may be interested in taking over Switzerland’s biggest independent money manager.
- Legg Mason Capital Management raised its stake in Countrywide Financial(CFC), the biggest US mortgage lender, to 15% and said it hasn’t decided whether to vote for Bank of America’s(BAC) $4 billion takeover.
- Nuance Communications(NUAN), the biggest maker of speech-recognition software, surged the most in a year after forecasting second-quarter sales that beat estimates on rising demand for its mobile-phone products.

- Nokia(NOK) will offer Google’s(GOOG) search engine on some handsets and will work with Orange SA to promote its Internet services and boost sales of devices with Web access.
- Danish police arrested three suspects in an alleged plot to murder one of 12 cartoonists whose caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad in 2005 sparked riots in Muslim communities around the world.
- Citigroup(C) has never been held in such low esteem by debt investors, and that’s why Prince Alwaleed bin Talal isn’t the only one in love with the bank whose looks are deceiving.

Wall Street Journal:
- H&R Block(HRB) Seen by Some as Well on Road to Recovery.

NY Times:
- US Immigration Rules Eased to Cope With Backlog.
- More Hedge Funds Likely to Fail as Losses Mount.

ZDNet:
- Google ‘Android’ Phones Debut at Barcelona Show.

news-journalonline.com:
- Officials tout alternative fuel to aid state farmers.

NY Sun:
- Applications for admission skyrocket at NYU.

- Quinn to Propose Incentive Pay for Some Teachers.

Washington Post:
- The European Union may fingerprint foreign travelers arriving and leaving the area and transfer the information to databases that could be shared with friendly nations.

Reuters:
- America Movil SAB, the biggest mobile-phone carrier in Latin America, will make videos from Google’s(GOOG) YouTube Web site available on its phones.
- Alternative investments firm First Avenue Partners said on Monday it planned to raise up to $750 million for a portfolio that will invest with start-up hedge funds, as well as funds that have seen heavy outflows.

Financial Times:
- Hedge funds investing in emerging markets pick London as their domicile more often than any other location, citing Hedge Fund Research. According to Hedge Fund Research, there are more than 950 hedge funds specializing in emerging markets, with a total of $110 billion under management.

YLE TV:
- Nokia(NOK) phones are being rejected by Germans following the announcement that the company would close its factory in the German town of Bochum. Nokia has also lost favor with consumers interviewed in market surveys, citing research firm Psychonomics AG.

El Universal:
- Supporters of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez asked federal investigators to examine programming at privately-owned news channel Globovision, which they say has “slandered” the president.

Xinhua:
- China’s natural gas output rose 23% to 69.3 billion cubic meters in 2007, citing the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association. Production in 2008 may reach 76 billion cubic meters.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Growth +.57%

Sector Underperformers:

Coal (-3.08%), Gold (-1.81%) and Airlines (+.03%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

DY, MAS, ZOLT, CYNO, HWAY, VRTX, BRKS, EXPD, WINN and ANR

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (+1.91%)

Sector Outperformers:

Steel (+3.16%), Insurance (+2.87%) and Banks (+2.94%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

VRX, WWE, CMP, TNS, SDA, HGR, AIG, CW, CNA, SBP, FWRD, ASEI, VECO, ELOS, NUAN, TWTC, IPGP, BMRN, CBEY, MELI, MDTH, OZRK, WOOF, CRZO, JRCC, LCAPA, CRVL, BRLI, CHNR, TKC, ITU, RTP, HBC, GL, HOFT and UTIW

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

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In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

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Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Monday, February 11, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said that the US will probably avoid a recession and that the Fed’s interest-rate policy is appropriate for the slowing economy.

Wall Street Journal:
- Indian automobile maker Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.’s light pickup trucks will be assembled in Ohio starting in 2009, and its hybrid vehicles will be sold in the US by 2010.

CNBC.com:
- Venezuela Moves Bank Accounts After Exxon(XOM) Freeze.

- S&P 500 Earnings Leaderboard: Biggest Surprises Season to Date.
- Blackberry Outage Strikes Across North America.

NY Times:
- Hedge Funds Raise Stake in Times Co. To Near 10%.
- AT&T(T) Joins Starbucks(SBUX) to Provide Store Wi-fi.

BusinessWeek.com:
- GTx(GTXI): A Compelling Biotech. S&P says the company’s lead drug candidate, Acapodene, represents a “significant opportunity” in the treatment of prostate cancer.

CNNMoney.com:
- Earnings: Nowhere to go but up. Banks dragged down profit growth for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter and will likely do so again in the first quarter. But earnings may improve by year’s end.
- Deferred earnings: Apple’s(AAPL) hidden revenue bonus.

IBD:
- IBD Reinvents Market Section To Help You Focus On Winners.

Morningstar.com:
- A private sector committee created under the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets expects to have its recommendations for sound hedge-fund practices available for public comment sometime this quarter.

USA Today.com:
- Support grows for Sony’s(SNE) Blu-ray high-def DVDs.
- Lawyer gets two years in prison for class-action schemes.

Reuters:
- Six mortgage lenders will announce a plan tomorrow to help delinquent homeowners avoid foreclosure.
- Cisco CEO: Don’t freak out about weak market.
- Short interest in shares of Intel Corp.(INTC) rose 48% from mid-January to late January, the largest increase of any Nasdaq stock.
- Non-Hispanic whites will become a minority in the US by 2050, with immigrants and their children driving 82% of US population growth in coming years, a new study said.


Financial Times:
- Fed is right to intervene to ward off recession. As the US economy and markets weaken, perennial pessimists have moved to center stage, arguing for the inevitability of a serious recession.

TimesOnline:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Vows it will Continue Yahoo!(YHOO) Fight.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Maintained Buy on (PBI), target $51.
- Reiterated Buy on (A), target $44.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 futures unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
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Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (IMB)/-1.57
- (MAS)/.28
- (SGP)/.25
- (WYN)/.45
- (MMC)/.31
- (OMC)/.95
- (GM)/-.64
- (Q)/.14
- (CCE)/.27
- (TAP)/.65
- (WYNN)/.68
- (CEPH)/.80
- (PNRA)/.55
- (NILE)/.44
- (XTO)/.92
- (SNDA)/.45
- (XMSR)/-.63
- (AMAT)/.20
- (BWLD)/.32

Upcoming Splits
- (WGOV) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

- The Monthly Budget Surplus for January is estimated at $19.0 billion versus $38.2 billion in December.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, (LVS) investor conference, (DRI) analyst meeting, (ERTS) analyst meeting, UBS Global Healthcare Services Conference, Lehman Brothers Industrial Select Conference, BIO CEO & Investor Conference, Goldman Sachs Ag Conference, Citigroup Retail Conference and Merrill Insurance Investors Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.