Friday, September 04, 2009

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Mid-Cap Value (+.77%)

Sector Underperformers:
Education (-.92%), Insurance (-.21%) and Utilities (+.13%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
LOPE, ZUMZ, SNDA, AIG, COO and ABM

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Growth (+1.33%)

Sector Outperformers:
Defense (+2.42%), Airlines (+2.24%) and Semis (+2.15%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
INFA, PHG, LGCY, AMT, CHL, DB, PNR, GROW, ULTA, AMED, RMBS, STAR, NVTL, ARST, MDCO, OVTI, GOLD, ATPG, SSRI, HMIN, CREE, CIEN, BIIB, JOSB, CTCM, RYAAY, FIRE, IPSU, ESL, CBE, TKS, WBD, OXM and SJR

Trading Links

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets

Briefing.com Stock Market Update

Stocks On The Move
Upgrades/Downgrades

WSJ Data Center

Markit CDS Market Summary

Commodity Futures

StockCharts Market Performance Summary

Morningstar Style Performance
Sector Performance
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

Chart Toppers
CNBC Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices

Thursday, September 03, 2009

Friday Watch

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (PLCE), target $37.

- Reiterated Buy on (AOC), target $47.

- Downgraded (ANF) to Sell, target $24.

- Reiterated Buy on (HD), target $34.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 133.0 -13.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 futures unch.


Morning Preview

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (HRB)/-.37


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

- The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for August is estimated at -230K versus -247K in July.

- The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated to rise to 9.5% versus 9.4% in July.

- Average Hourly Earnings for August are estimated to rise .1% versus a .2% gain in July.


Upcoming Splits
- (ABVT) 2-for-1


Other Potential Market Movers
-
Treasury Secretary Geithner meeting with the G-20 Finance Ministers in London and the (CX) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted By Airline, Road & Rail, Retail, Homebuilding, Construction, Bank and Alt Energy Shares

Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets
Today’s Movers
StockCharts Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Morningstar Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

Most Recent Guru Stock Picks
CNN PM Market Call

After-hours Stock Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Economic Fear, Diminishing Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Financial longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling 5.26% and is very high at 27.37. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 86.0 and the total put/call is above average at .96. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running low most of the day, hitting .41 at its intraday trough, and is currently .67. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 3.38% today to 88.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising .61% to 123.54 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling 2.02% to 20 basis points. The TED spread is now down 446 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is down .17% to 36.06 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 5.53% to 15 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 6 basis points to 1.67%, which is down 99 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .12%, which is down 1 basis point today. Considering mostly positive economic data today, recent weakness and gains overseas, the market’s subdued response is a bit disappointing. However, Cyclicals are substantially outperforming today. Heatlhcare-related stocks and telecom are substantially underperforming today. Nat gas continues to plunge and oil trades “heavy.” The recent spike higher in gold is likely related to technical factors, but is a stock market negative. Chinese benchmark hot rolled steel sheet fell another .92% and is down 2.82% for the week. The AAII % Bulls rose to 39.0 this week, while the % Bears fell to 30.0, which is a negative given recent market action. Tomorrow's jobs report will likely show a better-than-expected unemployment rate and around estimates non-farm payrolls number. I will closely monitor the market's reaction to this report. Nikkei futures indicate a -9 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +13 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, profit-taking, healthcare reform concerns and China bubble worries.