Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in September as the end of a tax credit for first-time homebuyers approached. Purchases dropped 3.6 percent to a 402,000 annual pace that was lower than the most pessimistic economist’s forecast, according to Commerce Department figures issued today in Washington. The median price of a new house fell to $204,800, compared with $225,200 at the same time last year. The value was up 2.5 percent from the prior month, reflecting a plunge in the share of houses selling for less than $150,000, a category that often includes first-time buyers. Sales fell 11 percent in the West and 10 percent in the South. Purchases in the Midwest jumped 34 percent and were unchanged in the Northeast. Builders had 251,000 houses on the market last month, the fewest since November 1982. It would take 7.5 months to sell all homes at the current sales pace, the same as in August.

- K1 Group, the German hedge fund firm, is embroiled in an international criminal investigation after saddling banks, including Barclays Plc, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA, with about $400 million of losses, people with knowledge of the probe said. European and U.S. authorities are examining whether K1, which manages funds of hedge funds, deceived the banks when borrowing money to ratchet up the size of its investments, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the investigation isn’t public. German and U.S. prosecutors may announce the first charges in the case as soon as this week, they said. JPMorgan inherited its exposure to K1 after acquiring Bear Stearns Cos., which did business with the fund manager.

- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel after a government report showed an unexpected increase in U.S. gasoline stockpiles and crude supplies rose to a two-month high.

Gasoline inventories climbed 1.62 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said. A 1 million-barrel decline was forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Crude inventories rose as imports advanced the first time in five weeks. Oil also dropped as the dollar gained against the euro. “The gasoline number was a big surprise and makes people less optimistic about the economy and demand,” said Sean Brodrick, natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. Fuel demand dropped 0.8 percent to an average of 18.5 million barrels a day last week, the report showed. Gasoline consumption fell 1 percent to 8.86 million barrels a day. “We continue to see evidence of weak demand and excess supply,” said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. “The gasoline number reflects both a lack of demand and an increase in refinery output.” Refineries operated at 81.8 percent of capacity, up 0.7 percentage point from the previous week, the report showed. Refiners produced 8.83 million barrels of gasoline a day, up 4.5 percent from the prior week. Inventories of crude oil rose 778,000 barrels to 339.9 million last week, the report showed. The gain left supplies 9.1 percent higher than the five-year average for the period. Imports of crude oil increased 2.2 percent to 8.89 million barrels a day last week, the report showed. Fuel imports climbed 6.3 percent to 2.54 million barrels a day.

- Copper prices dropped for the third straight day after a downbeat report on U.S. housing signaled demand for the metal may slacken. “We could be at a turning point for copper, where we could see prices start to head much lower,” said Matthew Zeman, a trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. Inventories of copper in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3 percent to 371,725 metric tons, the highest since May 13. “Markets are still running ahead of fundamentals,” said Alex Heath, the head of industrial metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London.

- Six international workers were killed and nine wounded when insurgents attacked a guesthouse in the Afghan capital, Kabul, where officials are preparing for next month’s presidential runoff election.

- Swine Flu Vaccine Scarcity Stirs Anger in US Communities. San Diego health officials said that the county expected to run out of swine flu vaccine yesterday after receiving only 25 percent of the 411,000 doses anticipated for October, as reports of shortages nationwide mount. San Diego health officials said that the county expected to run out of swine flu vaccine yesterday after receiving only 25 percent of the 411,000 doses anticipated for October, as reports of shortages nationwide mount.

- Google Inc.(GOOG) is adding a free U.S. turn-by-turn mapping service to the Android mobile-phone operating system, opening up a new source of competition for makers of navigation devices. The service is part of the updated Android 2.0 software, which was released to developers yesterday. The new maps service, called Google Maps Navigation, will include audio instructions for routes and simple ways to search for businesses, the company said.

- Brazilian stocks plunged, heading for the biggest two-day drop since January, as a tax on share purchases sapped demand for homebuilders and metal producers dropped on concern the profit outlook doesn’t justify prices.

- Mortgage applications in the U.S. fell to a two-month low, hurt by declines in purchases that may reflect concern over the expiration of government tax credits. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan decreased 12 percent to 562.3 in the week ended Oct. 23, the third consecutive drop. The group’s refinancing gauge fell 16 percent, while the index of purchases declined 5.2 percent.

- US companies have retreated .7% on average in the trading session following their earnings reports this month, the worst performance in Bespoke Investment Group LLC data going back to 2001. Stocks are retreating even though a record 82.3% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the average analyst estimate, which would be the biggest full-quarter proportion in 16 years of Bloomberg data.


Wall Street Journal:

- It's long been hard for health-care consumers to learn how much doctor visits or hospital stays will cost them. That's now beginning to change, as a growing array of Web sites try to lift the veil on pricing. The online resources come from insurers, government agencies, Internet companies and medical-care providers. The sites aren't perfect: Unlike online retailers that sell products such as televisions, the health sites can't typically give exact prices for medical procedures and services. Still, consumers can get a rough idea of typical costs in their area, and that can help them choose doctors and hospitals, budget for medical costs and sort out disputed bills.

- The protests at the American Bankers Association Conference in Chicago are over, but the campaign of venting anger and criticism against the nation’s largest banks continues. Today, protesters in Oregon and Washington are planning to walk into local branches of J.P. Morgan Chase(JPM) and cancel their personal checking and savings accounts. The act is meant to protest CEO James Dimon’s opposition to the Obama Administration’s proposal to create a new consumer protection agency. [Dimon has said the new agency would create cumbersome, costly restrictions and the banks will likely pass those costs onto the consumers.] The protest groups urge the public to switch their accounts in big banks to community banks. But the financial crisis has tarred small banks, too. Many are reeling from their own excessively risky lending practices, mostly to commercial real-estate developers. About half of the 106 banks to fail this year are small banks with $250 million or less in assets. We spoke with James Mumm, Director of Organizing at National People’s Action, one of the groups heading the Chicago protests, in addition to the Service Employees International Union.

- U.S. retirement asset rose $1 trillion in the second quarter, according to the Investment Company Institute, rising 7.4% and making up 34% of household assets. The increase to $14.4 trillion came as the stock market rebounded from the lowest point in more than a decade in early March. The S&P 500 stock index climbed 16% during the quarter, while the Citigroup Broad Investment Grade Bond Index gained 1.2%. Individual retirement accounts held the largest amount of U.S. retirement assets as of June 30 at $3.7 trillion, according to the fund-industry group. Just behind were employer-sponsored defined-contribution plans at $3.6 trillion, of which $2.5 trillion was in 401(k)s. The ICI said 45% of IRA assets and 48% of defined-contribution assets were in mutual funds. Life-cycle, or target-date funds, continued to attract increased investment, rising 22% during the quarter to $194 billion.

- A powerful car bomb ripped through a market Wednesday in the northwestern city of Peshawar, killing at least 90 people hours after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Pakistan to smooth relations strained by terms of an American aid package for the key South Asian ally. Mrs. Clinton was meeting with officials in Islamabad, a three-hour drive from Peshawar, when the explosion went off. The bombing was the second attack to hit one of Peshawar's crowded markets this month.


NY Times:

- Over the past few weeks, regulators across Asia have begun to announce small steps to keep a lid on property prices. Some investors are also now indicating that they are ready to take a break from the frenzy.

NYPost:
- As Bank of America's(BAC) board of directors approaches a self-imposed deadline at the end of this week to pick a successor to outgoing CEO Ken Lewis, it's finding few willing takers outside the bank, sources told The Post. According to people familiar with the matter, at least three high-profile bank executives have turned down the chance to be wooed by BofA, leaving the board to pick from a number of internal candidates. Sources said that the BofA board was keen on ex-JPMorgan Chase co-president Bill Winters, as well as Barclays Capital President Bob Diamond and ex-Merrill Lynch exec-turned-Yale professor Greg Fleming, but none of the three is interested. Diamond is said to have outright rejected an offer to be on a short list of candidates interviewed by the board.

Washington Times

- During his first nine months in office, President Obama has quietly rewarded scores of top Democratic donors with VIP access to the White House, private briefings with administration advisers and invitations to important speeches and town-hall meetings. High-dollar fundraisers have been promised access to senior White House officials in exchange for pledges to donate $30,400 personally or to bundle $300,000 in contributions ahead of the 2010 midterm elections, according to internal Democratic National Committee documents obtained by The Washington Times. One top donor described in an interview with The Times being given a birthday visit to the Oval Office. Another was allowed use of a White House-complex bowling alley for his family. Bundlers closest to the president were invited to watch a movie in the red-walled theater in the basement of the presidential mansion. Mr. Obama invited his top New York bundler, UBS Americas CEO Robert Wolf, to golf with him during the president's Martha's Vineyard vacation in August. At least 39 donors and fundraisers also were treated to a lavish White House reception on St. Patrick's Day, where the fountains on the North and South Lawns were dyed green, photos and video reviewed by The Times and CBS News also show. Presidential aides said there has been no systematic effort to use the White House complex to aid fundraising, though they acknowledge the DNC has paid for some events at the presidential mansion.


Business Insider:

- Credit is likely to become increasingly less attractive on a relative basis over the course of 2010. This forecast, coupled with a modest economic recovery, could encourage some
investors to move their assets from credit funds to equity funds. We do not expect such a
shift to occur rapidly or in large size given the fact that the credit mutual fund market is
$1.3 trillion smaller than the US equity mutual fund market ($2.1 trillion versus $3.4 trillion) and given the fact that funds invested in credit tend to be slower moving than funds invested in riskier asset classes. The large pool of assets still in cash suggests that we may see investors leapfrog credit funds and move directly from cash to equities in addition to any modest re-allocation from credit to equity.


Washington Post:

- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday that it had no choice but to instruct American International Group last November to reimburse the full amount of what it owed to big banks on derivatives contracts, a move that ended months of effort by the insurance giant to negotiate lower payments. Fed officials offered the explanation in a rare response to a media report after Bloomberg News said that the New York Fed, led at the time by then-President Timothy F. Geithner, directed AIG to make the payments after it received a massive government bailout. The officials said AIG lost its leverage in demanding a better deal once the company had been saved from bankruptcy. Lawmakers and financial analysts critical of the payouts say it amounted to a back-door bailout for big banks. AIG, the recipient of a $180 billion federal rescue package, ended up paying $14 billion to Goldman Sachs(GS) over months and $8.5 billion to Deutsche Bank, among others. Before the New York Fed intervened, AIG had been trying to persuade the firms to take discounts. The precise cost to taxpayers of these decisions is difficult to determine. Bloomberg, quoting an industry source, reported Tuesday that AIG was aiming to pay just 40 percent of the $32.5 billion it owed to the banks. Using those figures, the report concluded that the government needlessly overpaid $13 billion.


Rassmussen:

- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11 (see trends). Republicans lead by four on the Generic Congressional Ballot.


Politico:

- There have been a lot of bad days recently for what’s come to be known as the mainstream media — or MSM — but Monday was one of the worst. New circulation figures showed that big city papers had lost as much as a quarter of their circulation in the past six months. And new TV ratings showed that CNN, the cable network that prides itself on news coverage down the middle, finished dead last in prime time against more partisan rivals like Fox News and MSNBC.

- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has sent out invitations to tomorrow's 10 a.m. unveiling of the House Democrats' health care reform legislation. The announcement should make a fair bit of news because the final contours of the bill are still unclear.


USA Today:

- At least one in five U.S. children aged 1 to 11 don't get enough vitamin D and could be at risk for a variety of health problems including weak bones, the most recent national analysis suggests.


Reuters:

- More U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the economy, but poor demand remains a top concern, according to a survey. Forty-eight percent of U.S.-based industrial manufacturers surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers in the third quarter said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next year, while only 43 percent had said so in the second quarter. The largest number of manufacturers polled -- 45 percent -- did not expect their businesses to regain strength until the second half of 2010, the survey showed. Twenty-three percent said they expected business to pick up in the first half of 2010 but 17 percent believed their companies were unlikely to recover until 2011.

- Some of the nation's largest companies pushed back against U.S. Democrats' plans to deliver a government-run insurance option in a healthcare overhaul, decrying it as a step backward that would drive up costs for employers and their workers. The Business Roundtable, comprised of chief executives at Verizon Communications (VZ), JPMorgan (JPM), General Electric (GE), Wal-Mart (WMT) and other companies that together employ more than 12 million people, said the federal government is inefficient and would underpay providers. That would result in providers boosting prices for private insurers and employers, the group said on Wednesday. "A public plan would neither manage cost nor encourage innovation," said Antonio Perez, chief executive of Eastman Kodak Co (EK) and head of the Business Roundtable's health initiative. "We believe it is the wrong direction for fixing our health care system." Although an earlier congressional analysis found that about 9 million to 10 million people, most uninsured, would opt for the public plan, the Business Roundtable fears that number will jump as people see their private plan premiums climb. "The costs for all of us in the system will continue to go up and again put pressure on employers to get out of the healthcare system," John Castellani, president of Business Roundtable, told reporters at a news conference. Other business groups also oppose a public insurance option and are pushing for alternative cooperative exchanges. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched television ads on national cable stations and in seven states on Wednesday to fight the government option. Companies want to offer employees health care to recruit and retain talented workers, said Bruce Josten, a vice president at the Chamber of Commerce. The chamber backs an national exchange "with an Orbitz-like website," Josten told Reuters, referring to a popular travel site that compares deals among various providers. Even if companies were to drop their health care coverage, employers would likely face higher costs elsewhere in the form of higher taxes and other charges to help the government cover the costs, the Business Roundtable's Perez said.

- GMAC Inc on Wednesday launched a new government-backed bond sale ahead of a regulatory deadline next month that will test the company's capital levels and ability to absorb losses. GMAC came to market with a $2.9 billion three-year government-guaranteed note issue expected to price as soon as Wednesday, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters service. The bond sale comes amid conversations the Detroit-based firm, the traditional lender to General Motors Co, is having with the U.S. Treasury about a possible third cash infusion to its GMAC Financial Services Inc unit. GMAC, which is also taking over the auto loan business of Chrysler, converted to a bank holding company in December to become eligible for bailout money the U.S. Treasury was pumping into banks. Bank holding companies, including GMAC, that regulators have viewed as being undercapitalized face a November 9 deadline for implementing plans to enhance their capital positions. Concerns that GMAC could fail the impending test had sent the cost of insuring debt at its residential mortgage arm, Residential Capital, spiraling in the past week as investors worried that the unit would need to be spun off.

- Europe's regulators held sway over the region's banks on Wednesday, approving a UK government plan to break up mortgage lender Northern Rock just as shares in Irish banks crashed on fears of tough sanctions.


Financial Times:

- China and the US will not sign a landmark agreement on climate change policies when Barack Obama visits Beijing next month, the US president’s climate change envoy said on Wednesday, in spite of high hopes this year among US officials. The low expectations for the climate change talks might please some European nations, which feared that China and the US would seek to impose a bilateral accord on other countries at Copenhagen. But the fact that no landmark deal will be agreed underlines the weak position of the US in climate change discussions until cap-and-trade legislation is passed by Congress.


National Business Daily:
- China may raise the price of gasoline and diesel by 350 yuan a ton tomorrow, citing industry officials.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Value (-2.62%)

Sector Underperformers:
Education (-7.94%), Hospitals (-5.05%) and Steel (-4.65%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
DDS, ORI, PUK, VQ, IVN, CLF, PTR, BCS, MFC, PBR, UBS, PSYS, CLDA, APOL, ILMN, VCLK, ULTI, GRMN, CECO, SVVS, GSIC, BWLD, KONG, CSKI, AAWW, ARCC, AIXG, SWSI, ININ, LOPE, POOL, KSP, GT, IRE, EMF, SAP, SPW, ASH, WBK and CTB


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) GT 2) BGC 3) MAS 4) RF 5) CX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Value (-.83%)

Sector Outperformers:
Telecom (+1.61%), Road & Rail (+.44%) and Restaurants (+.32%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
NSC, AIG, UNP, TGT, TRMK, NAL, DFG, ACL, DLTR, TLVT, PNRA, PEET, NATI, NTRI, WBMD, CHBT, DWA, BIDU, PMTC, INSU, MKTX, OSIS, MDVN, TRMK, SOHU, VRTX, ASEI, SHPGY, SBNY, CRI, DV, HRS, CQB and WAT


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) ILMN 2) APOL 3) GT 4) HRS 5) GRMN

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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- The U.S. Commerce Department imposed preliminary duties of as much as 12 percent on $269 million of imports of steel grating and wire strand from China. In two separate decisions announced today, the U.S. said the producers are receiving illegal subsidies from the Chinese government, backing petitions by companies including Insteel Industries Inc., American Spring Wire Corp. and Sumiden Wire Products Corp. Makers of steel grating will face tariffs of 7.4 percent, the Commerce Department said in an e-mailed statement today. Importers of concrete steel wire strand, which is used to reinforce concrete construction applications, will face anti- subsidy duties ranging from 7.5 percent to 12 percent.

- Apollo Group Inc.(APOL) plunged as much as 21 percent in extended trading after the company reported the Securities and Exchange Commission commenced an informal inquiry into the company’s revenue recognition practices. The probe was started by the SEC’s Enforcement Division, Phoenix-based Apollo Group said today in a statement. Shares of Apollo Group fell as much as $15.32 to $57.65 at 4:32 p.m. after U.S. markets closed today. Apollo Group, based in Phoenix, is the parent company of the University of Phoenix, the nation’s largest private university with 443,000 students, most of whom take classes via the Internet. Federal student aid accounted for about 86 percent of company revenue in fiscal 2009, Apollo said today in a filing.

- ‘Jobs Created or Saved’ Is White House Fantasy. “Most analysts predict that the fiscal stimulus will have its greatest impact on growth in the second and third quarters of 2009,” Romer said. “By mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to growth.” At first it was just fringe elements, such as conservative blogs and the not-really-a-news-organization Fox News, that pounced on Romer’s statement. Then other news outlets started to question her statement, which seemed to fly in the face of White House assertions that only a small portion of the stimulus -- $120 billion, or 15 percent -- has actually been spent. Most of the criticism of the stimulus coming from the president’s own party has been, “too little, too late,” and here’s Romer saying it’s kaput. No wonder capital spending plans were at an all-time low in the third quarter, according to the NFIB monthly survey. Only 30,383 jobs were created or saved by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, according to Recovery.gov, the government’s once-transparent Web site that has become a complex blur of numbers, graphs and pie charts. An extrapolation of what would have happened without the fiscal stimulus isn’t much consolation to the 9.8 percent of the workforce that is unemployed. Nor is Romer’s prescription for the economy and labor market very comforting in light of the trillions of future tax dollars that have been spent, lent or promised by the federal government.

- Visa Inc.(V), the world’s biggest payments network, climbed in extended New York trading after posting results that exceeded most analysts’ forecasts and saying a year-long skid in consumer spending has ended.


Wall Street Journal:

- In a stark reminder of how some battered financial firms remain dependent on government lifelines, GMAC Financial Services Inc. and the Treasury Department are in advanced talks to prop up the lender with its third helping of taxpayer money, people familiar with the matter said. The U.S. government is likely to inject $2.8 billion to $5.6 billion of capital into the Detroit company, on top of the $12.5 billion that GMAC has received since December 2008, these people said. The latest infusion would come in the form of preferred stock. The government's 35.4% stake in the company could increase if existing shares eventually are converted into common equity. The willingness by Treasury officials to deepen taxpayer exposure to GMAC reflects the troubled company's importance to the revival of the auto industry.

- Washington is captivated by the Senate melodrama over the so-called public option, salivating at the ring of Harry Reid's political bell (see below). But the most important health-care questions continue to be about the policy substance—particularly those that Democrats don't want asked. Foremost among them is: How will ObamaCare affect insurance premiums in the private health-care markets? Despite indignant Democratic denials, the near-certainty is that their plan will cause costs to rise across the board. The latest data on this score come from a series of state-level studies from the insurance company WellPoint Inc. At the request of Congressional delegations worried about their constituents—call it a public service—WellPoint mined its own actuarial data to model ObamaCare in the 14 states where it runs Blue Cross plans. The study therefore takes into account market and demographic differences that other industry studies have not, such as the one from the trade group America's Health Insurance Plans, which looked at aggregate national trends. In all of the 14 states WellPoint scrutinized, ObamaCare would drive up premiums for the small businesses and individuals who are most of WellPoint's customers. (Other big insurers, like Aetna, focus on the market among large businesses.) Young and healthy consumers will see the largest increases—their premiums would more than triple in some states—though average middle-class buyers will pay more too. Not even two hours after Wellpoint had presented its materials on the Hill, Democrats were already trashing it—which, considering that it runs to some 238 pages and took weeks to prepare, must have required remarkable powers of digestion and analysis.

- Treasury Department pay czar Kenneth Feinberg last week announced sharp cuts in total compensation at the finance and auto companies under his control. But while he cut total compensation by half, he substantially increased one important element—regular salaries, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. The move reflects the complexity of regulating something that mixes politics and economics. When the banks complained, Mr. Feinberg listened. He adjusted base salaries for the bulk of those employees, in some cases boosting them by hundreds of thousands of dollars, according to an analysis of government data by the Journal. On average, base salaries climbed to $437,896 a year as a result of Mr. Feinberg's review, compared with $383,409 previously, a 14% increase, according to a Journal analysis of Treasury data. Of the 136 employees under Mr. Feinberg's review, 89 saw their base salaries increase. At Citigroup, which is 34%-owned by the U.S., government, Mr. Feinberg agreed to more than double salaries for 13 of the 21 employees, according to the Journal's analysis. Treasury Department officials confirmed the accuracy of the Journal's methodology for calculating the number of employees whose base salaries rose.

- More than three decades after Maynard H. Jackson Jr. became the first African-American mayor of a major Southern city here, the era of uncontested black leadership in the cradle of the civil-rights movement is facing its first true test: A white city councilwoman leads the mayoral race by a wide margin just days before the Nov. 3 election. Recent polls show Mary Norwood, a fiscal conservative who lives in a heavily white, wealthy section of Atlanta, with support ranging from 39% to 46% of likely voters. That puts her potentially within striking distance of winning outright next week or heading into a runoff with one of the two most prominent African-American candidates, City Council President Lisa Borders and former state Sen. Kasim Reed, both of whom have struggled to gather support from even 25% of voters. Most striking in Ms. Norwood's numbers is her level of support among widely fractured African-American voters. An InsiderAdvantage poll on Oct. 16 showed Ms. Norwood leading all candidates among black voters, with nearly a third of African-Americans supporting her. Ms. Norwood's position reflects demographic changes that are scrambling the established political order in parts of the South as well as moderating racial attitudes that increasingly have left African-Americans, whites and other ethnicities open to votes that defy conventional racial blocs.

- One of the technology industry's highest-profile executives has become ensnared in an alleged insider-trading case that is shaking the corporate and financial worlds. A criminal case filed by the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's office earlier this month alleged an unnamed Advanced Micro Devices Inc. executive shared confidential information about the chip maker with a defendant in the case. The AMD executive is Hector Ruiz, then AMD's chairman and previously the company's chief executive, according to a person familiar with the matter.

- Al Qaeda's umbrella group in Iraq claimed responsibility for the twin suicide bombings in the heart of Baghdad that killed at least 155 people, including 24 children trapped in a bus leaving a daycare center.


MarketWatch:

- As U.S. regulators consider reining in excessive energy speculation, the two major U.S. futures exchanges have squared off over whether authorities should impose a blanket cap on positions traders hold on one exchange. The smaller but faster-growing IntercontinentalExchange(ICE) wants the regulator to set a market-wide cap. The older and bigger CME Group Inc.(CME) , which owns the New York Mercantile Exchange, wants individual exchanges to set caps based on the size of the exchange. The outcome of the regulatory decision, expected by year-end, could tilt the intensely competitive playing field for energy futures trading, extending a long-running rivalry between CME's Nymex and ICE.


CNBC.com:

- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday said there were strong arguments for extending many government programs geared at lifting the U.S. economy out of recession.


NY Times:

- Many workers at the Ford Motor Company(F) are signaling that they are unwilling to help the automaker cut its labor costs further, by voting against what would be the third round of concessions in the last two years.


IBD:

- Keeping that high-value, must-have-now data on expensive high-speed memory drives is an easy call. Getting that might-need-someday out to a cheaper, slower drive somewhere else has always been the challenge. That's what Compellent Technologies (CML) does.


CNNMoney.com:

- Research in Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry, with a 40% share, is still the most popular smartphone among the 4,255 owners who responded to a ChangeWave survey in September. But Apple's (AAPL) iPhone is gaining fast, according to research director Paul Carton.

- Roughly $211 billion separates what the country owes and its self-imposed credit limit. And by Friday, after another week of massive debt sales by the Treasury Department, that gap will likely have narrowed considerably. It is now expected that the $12.104 trillion debt ceiling could be breached by the end of November.

- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) chief executive officer defended the dollar -- and the size of his company -- at a securities industry conference Tuesday. "The ultimate strength of the dollar will depend on the strength of the United States," Dimon said.


Forbes:

- Federal officials plan to ban sales of raw oysters harvested from the Gulf of Mexico unless the shellfish are treated to destroy potentially deadly bacteria - a requirement that opponents say could deprive diners of a delicacy cherished for generations. The plan has also raised concern among oystermen that they could be pushed out of business. The Gulf region supplies about two-thirds of U.S. oysters, and some people in the $500 million industry argue that the anti-bacterial procedures are too costly. They insist adequate measures are already being taken to battle germs, including increased refrigeration on oyster boats and warnings posted in restaurants. Some oyster sellers say the FDA rule smacks of government meddling. The sales ban would take effect in 2011 for oysters harvested in the Gulf during warm months. "We have one man who's 97 years old, and he comes in here every week and gets his oyster fix, no matter what month it is," said Mark DeFelice, head chef at Pascal's Manale Restaurant in New Orleans. "There comes a time when we need to be responsible. Government doesn't need to be involved in this." The anti-bacterial process treats oysters with a method similar to pasteurization, using mild heat, freezing temperatures, high pressure and low-dose gamma radiation. But doing so "kills the taste, the texture," DeFelice said. "For our local connoisseurs, people who've grown up eating oysters all their lives, there's no comparison" between salty raw oysters and the treated kind.


Dow Jones:

- A U.S. House panel voted Tuesday to periodically adjust the thresholds investors must meet in order to qualify for hedge funds and other sophisticated investments. The House Financial Services Committee agreed to an amendment that would direct the Securities and Exchange Commission to adjust for inflation the standards for whether an investor can partake in some funds. Current rules dictate that individuals can invest in more sophisticated funds only if they have a net worth of at least $1 million or an annual income of at least $200,000 over the previous two years. The amendment was included as part of a broader measure aimed at increasing oversight of hedge funds and other private pools of capital. The committee, chaired by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., is scheduled to vote on the broader bill either Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday.


CBS:

- A former cashier for The Home Depot(HD) who has been wearing a "One nation under God" button on his work apron for more than a year has been fired, he says because of the religious reference. The company claims that expressing such personal beliefs is simply not allowed. "I've worn it for well over a year and I support my country and God," Trevor Keezor said Tuesday. "I was just doing what I think every American should do, just love my country." The American flag button Keezer wore in the Florida store since March 2008 says "One nation under God, indivisible."

Rasmussen:

- Most voters trust themselves more than either Congress or President Obama when it comes to the economy, but they have way more confidence in themselves when it comes to the news media. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 85% of U.S. voters trust their own judgment more than the average reporter when it comes to the important issues affecting the nation. Only four percent (4%) trust the average reporter more.


Miami Herald:

- President Hugo Chavez's popularity has slipped and a majority of Venezuelans view the situation in their country negatively, according to a poll published Tuesday. The survey by the Caracas-based polling firm Datanalisis found that 46 percent responded positively when asked how they view Chavez's presidency, down from 53 percent a month earlier. The survey, published by the Venezuelan newspaper El Universal, also found that 59 percent said they saw the situation in the country as negative.


The Business Insider:

- Nielsen reported a 50% plunge in CNBC vierwership in October year over year. Specially, CNBC has experienced a massive 52% decline in overall viewers during business day hours (5 am - 7 pm), and a not much better 49% drop in its demo (25-54) in the month of October as compared to last year.

- You thought today's consumer news was bad? Just wait. Senator Chris Dodd, who has suffered from the impression that he is too close to the banking industry, has proposed an incredibly stupid immediate rate freeze on credit cards. Tom Brown at Bankingstocks.com explains why this is so stupid.


USA Today.com:

- When it comes to predicted reliability -- coming after years of gab from Detroit about how its cars don't break down anymore -- six American brands rank dead last in Consumer Reports' latest predictions on automotive reliability being released right now. At the other extreme, the best brand is Toyota's Scion.


Reuters:

- Wolfgang Leese, chief executive officer of Salzgitter AG, warned against overoptimism, noting that a recovery in steel-sector demand in recent weeks is not likely to be sustained. The market remains unstable and at best will be flat, he said. The company, Germany’s second-largest steelmaker, will post a loss for 2009.

- Package delivery rivals FedEx Corp (FDX) and United Parcel Service (UPS) faced off for the first time over a bill pending in Congress that would change FedEx workers' labor laws, setting out their positions in a debate on Tuesday in Albuquerque, New Mexico. In question is a reauthorization bill for the Federal Aviation Administration passed in May by the U.S. House of Representatives, under which FedEx employees would be covered by the National Labor Relations Act instead of the Railway Labor Act. The bill is awaiting Senate approval. "It is legislation written by UPS, for UPS and only benefits UPS," said FedEx spokesman Maury Lane. "Everyone else suffers."

- National Australia Bank Ltd, the country's largest lender, expects business lending growth to contract in 2010, Chief Executive Officer Cameron Clyne told a media briefing on Wednesday.

- ABC News said on Tuesday that its weekly measure of U.S. consumer confidence fell to a three-month low, as Americans' views on the buying climate hit their lowest levels this year. The Consumer Comfort Index edged lower to -51 in the week ended Oct. 25 from a -50 the prior week. It was the index's lowest reading since mid-July, and puts the level in close proximity to its record low.

- Illumina Inc (ILMN) posted a lower-than-expected third-quarter profit as expenses rose, and the company cut its 2009 revenue forecast, sending its shares tumbling 21 percent in post-market trading.


Financial Times:

- The Federal Reserve could order a financial institution to sell a risky division or stop dangerous trading activity if the central bank determined there was a threat to the US financial system, under a draft law released on Tuesday. The landmark bill drawn up by the Treasury and the House financial services committee sets up a council of regulators charged with snuffing out systemic risks and gives the government and the Fed sweeping powers over financial companies at home and overseas. The Fed would require systemically significant companies – including foreign groups that own a large or risky US subsidiary – to abide by “heightened prudential standards”. These include leverage limits, liquidity rules and the drafting of a resolution plan, or “living will”. Companies would be placed in the new category if the council deemed that “material financial distress at the company could pose a threat to financial stability or the economy”. But the draft law goes further than expected – allowing the Fed to require any systemically significant company to “sell or otherwise transfer assets or off-balance sheet items to unaffiliated firms, to terminate one or more activities, or to impose conditions on the manner in which the identified financial holding company conducts one or more activities”. If that does not save a company, the government could seize it and force rival banks that have more than $10bn in assets to repay any taxpayer money used to seize or wind up their competitor.


TimesOnline:

- Loans to eurozone households and businesses fell for the first time ever last month in the latest sign of the continued fragility of the economy and the uncertainity of a recovery. Lending dropped 0.3 per cent in September from a year earlier, according to the European Central Bank (ECB). It was the first year-on-year drop since data was first collected in 1991, the ECB said. The situation mirrors the UK, where a lack of available credit from banks desperate to hoard cash has been seen as a major obstacle to the nation's emergence from recession. Earlier this week, David Cameron, the Conservative leader, said it was "astonishing" that 12 months after the bank rescue lending to businesses was still falling.


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Upgraded (AKS) to Buy, raised target to $21.

- Reiterated Buy on (X), target $49.

- Reiterated Buy on (NLC), target $24.

- Reiterated Sell on (UA), target $24.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 112.50 +13.50 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.


Morning Preview

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (GT)/.40

- (CCE)/.46

- (OC)/.37

- (IP)/.24

- (WLP)/1.39

- (HES)/.54

- (COP)/.94

- (ITRI)/.50

- (AVB)/1.08

- (CBG)/.10

- (FSLR)/1.75

- (AFL)/1.20

- (CERN)/.61

- (ESRX)/.82

- (OI)/.93

- (LSI)/.03

- (FLS)/2.04

- (RYL)/-1.06

- (SYMC)/.33

- (SPW)/.86

- (GD)/1.40

- (JNY)/.27


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- Durable Goods Orders for September are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -2.6% decline in August.

- Durables Ex Transportation for September are estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.3% decline in August.


10:00 am EST

- New Home Sales for September are estimated to rise to 440K versus 429K in August.


10:30 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,910,000 barrels versus a +1,312,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -2,214,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are expected to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -784,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.28% versus a +.19% gain the prior week.


Upcoming Splits
- None of Note


Other Potential Market Movers
-
The Treasury’s 5-Year Note Auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (YHOO) analyst meeting and the Wells Fargo Consumer Conference could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.