- Chances of business supporting the Obama administration's health overhaul are fading fast, after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's bill took a liberal turn. The Obama administration has courted small businesses from the start, and at times executives have shown favor toward Democratic plans such as the bill passed by the Senate Finance Committee last month. But when Mr. Reid decided to include a new public health-insurance plan in his bill and added a Medicare payroll tax increase for high earners, business groups said enough was enough. "We're disappointed," said Bruce Josten, an executive vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, of the Senate health bill. "If it ends up in that form, I can't imagine the business community supporting it." Several industry groups are banding together to ask Congress to scrap the current bills and start from scratch on a health overhaul. They are stepping up television advertising against Democrats' proposals.
- TARP Inspector General Neil Barofsky keeps committing flagrant acts of political transparency, which if nothing else ought to inform the debate going forward over financial reform. In his latest bombshell, the IG discloses that the New York Federal Reserve did not believe that AIG's credit-default swap (CDS) counterparties posed a systemic financial risk. Hello? For the last year, the entire Beltway theory of the financial panic has been based on the claim that the "opaque," unregulated CDS market had forced the Fed to take over AIG and pay off its counterparties, lest the system collapse. Yet we now learn from Mr. Barofsky that saving the counterparties was not the reason for the bailout. In the fall of 2008 the New York Fed drove a baby-soft bargain with AIG's credit-default-swap counterparties. The Fed's taxpayer-funded vehicle, Maiden Lane III, bought out the counterparties' mortgage-backed securities at 100 cents on the dollar, effectively canceling out the CDS contracts. This was miles above what those assets could have fetched in the market at that time, if they could have been sold at all. The New York Fed president at the time was none other than Timothy Geithner, the current Treasury Secretary, and Mr. Geithner now tells Mr. Barofsky that in deciding to make the counterparties whole, "the financial condition of the counterparties was not a relevant factor." This is startling. In April we noted in these columns that Goldman Sachs, a major AIG counterparty, would certainly have suffered from an AIG failure. And in his latest report, Mr. Barofsky comes to the same conclusion. But if Mr. Geithner now says the AIG bailout wasn't driven by a need to rescue CDS counterparties, then what was the point? Why pay Goldman and even foreign banks like Societe Generale billions of tax dollars to make them whole?
- Banks that are considered too large to fail should be dismantled rather than "coddled," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Thursday. Large-scale government bailouts of institutions like insurer American International Group(AIG)have generated widespread controversy following last year's global financial meltdown. Fisher suggested the only way of ensuring that such financial giants do not pose recurrent problems is by making them smaller." This means finding ways not to live with 'em and getting on with developing the least disruptive way to have them divest those parts of the 'franchise,' such as proprietary trading, that place the deposit and lending function at risk and otherwise present conflicts of interest," Fisher said in prepared remarks to the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. It was one of the strongest calls to date from a sitting Fed official for an actual breaking up of large financial institutions. Fisher also said the too-big-to-fail problem hinders the effectiveness of monetary policy, perverting incentives and contributing to financial volatility.
- Harbinger Capital Partners continues to slice its stake of the New York Times (NYT). Co., selling its second batch of stock in two months. The activist hedge fund that spent more than a half-billion accumulating nearly 20 percent of the publishing company’s stock in 2007 now owns less than 15 percent —14.64 percent, to be exact, based on the number of shares outstanding on Oct. 30. According to SEC filings today (here and here), the fund sold 2.5 million shares of its then-16.4 percent on Nov. 17 at $9 a share; that comes out to $22.5 million.
SmartMoney:
- It’s been dubbed the apology with a half-billion-dollar gift attached. In an attention-grabbing move this week, Goldman Sachs (GS) said it would launch a $500 million initiative to help small businesses with Warren Buffett as a key adviser, an announcement that coincided by hours with a public mea culpa from CEO Lloyd Blankfein for mistakes in the financial crisis. But it turns out Goldman’s program includes its own discount — the kind that only an investment banker could love. According to a review of Goldman’s program by SmartMoney in consultation with corporate tax experts, the ultimate price tag of the initiative could be far less than the heavily publicized $500 million. A big chunk of the money is destined for charitable institutions, creating potentially sizable tax deductions for Goldman, while other portions are being made as loans that Goldman confirms it expects to be repaid with interest. All in all, tax experts say, the ultimate cost to Goldman could total roughly $136 million to $150 million—70% or more below the half-billion figure that helped generate so much publicity for the firm this week. Interest income from the loans could lower the final bill even more.
- Leading US retailers are this year expanding their Christmas sales drive by targeting smartphone users through the new generation of mobile devices such as the Apple(AAPL) iPhone, the Palm Pre and BlackBerry’s Storm. Retailers that have started selling online via smartphones this year include mass discounters Walmart(WMT) and Kmart(KMT), lingerie retailer Victoria’s Secret, home goods store Crate & Barrel, and youth clothing chains American Eagle(AEO) and Urban Outfitters(URBN). Others, including JC Penney(JCP), Target(TGT), Gap(GPS) and Toys R Us have launched smartphone applications, or apps, that promote deals alongside services such as helping customers locate physical stores or check the availability of items. Raul Vazquez, chief executive of Walmart.com, said the group’s new iPhone app, which was released in November and is linked to its home electronics sales, had so far been downloaded more than 300,000 times. “We expect by the end of the year to get that number up to 1m,” he said of the app, which includes a feature that allows shoppers to fit a profile of a proposed TV purchase on to a photo of a wall or room. Jason Taylor, head of mobile products at Usablenet, which adapts websites to make them easily navigable by mobile devices, said his company had this month launched “around a dozen” new mobile sites for leading retailers, including office-supplies retailer Staples(SPLS) and cosmetics company Aveda. Outdoor goods store REI, and OfficeMax(OMX), another office supplies retailer, are also planning to open mobile commerce sites. “I see a real rush by retailers to have proper mobile channels,” said Mr Taylor.
- Tokyo Electron Ltd., which makes semiconductor-manufacturing equipment, may post an operating profit for the January-March period for the first time in six quarters.The company expects improved earnings because semiconductor producers in Taiwan, South Korea and elsewhere are increasing investments, citing an interview with President Hiroshi Takenaka.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (LTD), target $24.
- Reiterated Buy on (PLCE), target $40.
- Reiterated Buy on (PCLN) and (EXPE)..
- Reiterated Buy on (PVH), target $54.
- Upgraded (LINTA) to Buy, target $13.25.
- Downgraded (D) to Sell, target $32.
- Reiterated Buy on (CLF), target $51.
- Reiterated Buy on (GLW), target $20.50.
BMO Capital Markets:
- Rated (INTC) Outperform, target $26.
- Rated (TXN) Outperform, target $33.
- Rated (MRVL) Outperform, target $23.
- Rated (BRCM) Outperform, target $37.
Night Trading Asian Indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 100.5 -4.5 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.
- Existing Home Sales for October are estimated to rise to 5.70M versus 5.57M in September.
Upcoming Splits - None of Note
Other Potential Market Movers -The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, (MHS) analyst day, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, (CI) analyst meeting, Sidoti Emerging Growth Forum and the Citi Small/Mid-Cap Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Medical longs, Financial longs and Technology longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising +6.93% and is high at 23.13. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 130.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.01. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 3.39 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.75. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +2.25% to 67.87 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +3.01% to 102.23 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising +2 basis points to 26 basis points. The TED spread is now down 438 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +7.25% to 31.44 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 14 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling -1 basis point to 2.19%, which is down -46 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .00%, which is down -3 basis points today.Small-cap and cyclical shares are substantially underperforming today. Oil Service, Semi and Gaming stocks are especially weak, falling -3.25%+.The market’s poor reaction to today’s mixed news, is a negative.The US sovereign debt CDS is rising 3 basis points to 31.0 basis points, which is the highest level since Aug., but still well off a high of 100.50 basis points on Feb. 25.Semis are weak on a BofA Merrill downgrade.I think they are too early on their call to sell these shares.I will add to my positions in the group on any meaningful further pullback from current levels.On the positive side, volume is only around average today and investor angst is spiking.Retail shares have traded relatively well throughout the day.I will closely monitor the market’s internal reaction to tomorrow’s economic data and likely weakness in Asia tonight before further shifting market exposure.Nikkei futures indicate a -99 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +16 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices, lower long-term rates and seasonal strength.