Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- The tumble in bonds of Dubai’s state- controlled companies to record lows signals growing concern more borrowers will fall behind on debt payments as Dubai World seeks to restructure $26 billion of obligations. “We are concerned that it’s just not Dubai World that has issues,” said Oliver Bell, the head of Middle East and Africa investment at Pictet Asset Management in London, which has $120 billion under management. “The health of other government- related entities is in question.”

- Global Climate-Change Efforts Would Get $1.3 Billion From US. Efforts to help poorer nations adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions would receive $1.3 billion under a year-end spending plan approved by U.S. congressional negotiators. The $447 billion legislation, which provides funding for hundreds of government programs, includes provisions to promote clean energy, biodiversity and climate-change programs worldwide, said Ellis Brachman, a spokesman for the House Appropriations Committee. Climate-related programs managed by the World Bank are also funded under the legislation. Negotiators at United Nations climate-change talks in Copenhagen are seeking agreement on a $10 billion fund to help the most vulnerable nations adapt to the impacts of global warming. The U.S. contribution should be about $2 billion, U.S. Senator John Kerry, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said last week.

- Crude oil fell to a two-month low after a government report showed that U.S. fuel inventories climbed as refineries bolstered operating rates. Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.25 million barrels to 216.3 million, the report showed. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased 1.62 million barrels to 167.3 million. Refineries operated at 81.1 percent of capacity, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and the highest level since October. “Whenever refiners increase operating rates we get big builds in the products,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “As long as we get no indication that demand is recovering, this market will remain under pressure.” Total U.S. daily fuel demand averaged 18.5 million barrels in the four weeks ended Dec. 4, down 3 percent from a year earlier, the report showed.

- Treasuries fell after an investor class that includes foreign central banks bought the least amount since June of today’s $21 billion offering of 10-year securities.

- Billionaire investor George Soros, who helped push the U.K. out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, said France and Germany would like to see London’s financial-services industry “sink.” “There is thinking in continental Europe that would like to rein in London and see London sink,” Soros, 79, said today at a conference organized by the London School of Economics. “There is this Franco-German alliance, I nearly said conspiracy, an alliance or common ground.” The European Union is considering proposals that have been criticized in the U.K. financial community as undermining London’s competitive position as a global money center.

- China’s monetary policy should aim to prevent rapid asset-price increases next year, Market News International reported, citing a researcher from the central bank.

- China issued policies to curb property speculation after home prices rose at the fastest pace in more than a year and Premier Wen Jiabao pledged support for affordable housing. The government will impose a sales tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase, increasing the time period covered by the charge from two years, the State Council, the nation’s cabinet, said yesterday after a meeting chaired by Wen. China reduced the penalty period of the tax to two years from five in January of this year to stem falling prices. “The Chinese central government wants to gradually control the bubble in the real estate market,” Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist, said by phone.

- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil producer, found evidence of oil for the first time in its BM-S-17 offshore block in the country’s southeastern Santos Basin. Latin America’s biggest company is investing billions of dollars to boost production by more than half and develop the Tupi field, the Americas’ largest oil discovery in more than three decades. The company aims to increase total output to 3.7 million barrels a day by 2013, from 2.4 million in 2008.

- Unemployment in the U.S. will exceed 10 percent through the first half of 2010, limiting a recovery in consumer spending and economic growth, a survey of economists showed. The world’s largest economy will expand 2.6 percent in 2010 after contracting 2.5 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate will average 10 percent next year.

- Pimco Total Return Fund, run by Bill Gross since its inception in 1987, is set to become the biggest mutual fund in the industry’s history as individual investors mostly sit out the 2009 stock rally for the safety of bonds. Based on the pace of current inflows, Gross’s bond fund this month may surpass the record $202.3 billion reached by Growth Fund of America in 2007, according to researcher Morningstar Inc. Total Return managed $199 billion at Nov. 30, while Growth Fund, which buys stocks, had $153 billion.

- Crude oil may tumble toward its 200-day moving average near $65 a barrel in New York after breaking through the bottom of a supporting channel, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG. Oil futures on the NY Mercantile Exchange dropped below $73.75 a barrel on Dec. 7. This point market the convergence of two channels, the yearlong upward corridor and a downward price-band that formed in October. With the intersection of the two the “up-trend channel” was broken, the bank said.

- The euro may drop against the dollar to a level last reached in August if it fails to rally past resistance levels, according to Citigroup Inc. The euro is facing a “bearish setup” versus the greenback, with a large gap between the 55- and 200-day moving averages, Citigroup’s Tom Fitzpatrick and Aron Gera in NY and Shyam Devani in London wrote in a note to clients today, citing momentum indicators. “Overall, we continue to expect a test of the 200-day moving average, which is now at $1.4118,” the analysts wrote. That would be a drop of more than 4% from yesterday’s close.

- The Obama administration extended the $700 billion financial-rescue program(TARP) until October, arguing that the U.S. must hold on to the money in case of new financial shocks.

- Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the U.K. will force banks awarding discretionary bonuses of more than 25,000 pounds ($40,800) to pay a one-time levy of 50 percent. The tax, effective today, will be paid by all banks that operate in the U.K., including U.S. firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Employees will still have to pay income tax on their bonuses, the Treasury said. The top tax rate on earnings of more than 150,000 pounds will rise to 50 percent in April, a measure announced earlier this year.


Wall Street Journal:

- A Transaction Tax Would Hurt All Investors. The unwanted consequences of the ‘Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act.’ "Wall Street" would not foot the bill for the presumed $150 billion tax. In fact, the tax would simply be added to the cost of doing business, burdening all investors, including 401(k) plans, IRAs and mutual funds.


CNBC:

- The North American job market is showing “good growth” from the bottom it reached early this year, Korn/Ferry International CEO Gary Burnison said.

- Still-cautious employers are slowly starting to hire temporary workers, a possible sign that a jobs recovery could be on its way.


MarketWatch.com

- Shares in Spain fell sharply on Wednesday after Standard & Poor's revised down its outlook on the country to negative from stable, saying it now expects a longer and deeper downturn here, just two days after warning Greece and Portugal over their own fiscal woes.


LA Times:

- The real fat cat party. If Republicans are 'the party of big business,' why are the Democrats raking in big bucks from industry after industry? The U.S. Climate Action Partnership, led by GE(GE), includes many other Fortune 500 companies, including Goldman Sachs(GS) -- the company that has profited mightily from Obama's brand of hope and change. CAP is an aggressive supporter of the Democrats' climate change scheme. Why? Because GE and company stand to make billions from carbon pricing, thanks largely to investments in technologies that cannot survive in a free market without massive subsidies from Uncle Sam. GE chief Jeffrey Immelt cheerleads big government as "an industry policy champion, a financier and a key partner." My biggest objection is not to what isn't true about the claim that the right is the handmaiden to big business, it's to what is true. Too many Republicans think being pro-business is the same as being pro-market. They defend the status quo against bad reforms and think they've defended economic freedom. The status quo stinks. And the sooner Republicans learn that, the sooner they'll deserve to win again.


The Business Insider:

- 2009 Silicon Alley 100: A-Z.


Washington Post:

- Copenhagen’s Political Science by Sarah Palin.


I, Cringely:

- Intel(INTC) Will Buy nVIDIA(NVDA).

Real Clear Politics:

- At 46%, President Obama's latest job approval rating is the lowest ever in Quinnipiac polls, and he has an upside down rating for his handling of health care. The new survey (Dec. 1-6, 2313 RV, MoE +/- 2%), released this morning, finds 44% disapproving of the job Obama's doing. More than half (51%) of independents now disapprove of Obama's job performance, while 37% approve. In the RCP Average, Obama's job approval rating has fallen to a new low of 48.5%."The decline in Obama's overall approval in the last month has been small, with the exception of independent voters who went from three points negative to 14 points," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter Brown. "If the trend continues, it won't be long before he could be in the unenviable position of having more Americans disapprove than approve of his job performance."


Politico:

- House Republican leaders used a trip to the White House Wednesday to deliver a letter to President Barack Obama expressing concern with plans for a new economic stimulus bill, cap-and-trade legislation and the president’s trip next week to Copenhagen. At the White House for a meeting on jobs, the Republicans struck a cautionary note in their hand-delivered letter, writing that government intervention was not the way to create jobs. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) also expressed concerns about a “binding emissions reduction scheme” they believe would cost U.S. jobs, referring to the administration’s plans for a political agreement on emissions standards that’s likely to be discussed at the U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen.


The Hill:

- Nearly $6 million in stimulus money was paid to two firms run by Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton’s pollster in 2008. Federal records show that $5.97 million from the $787 billion stimulus helped preserve three jobs at Burson-Marsteller, the global public-relations and communications firm headed by Penn.


Reuters:

- Demand for U.S. home loans rose last week to the highest level in about two months, mostly from borrowers taking advantage of low mortgage rates to refinance, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. Nearly three of every four loan requests was for a refinancing rather than a purchase, pointing to caution with unemployment at a double-digit rate and fear of job loss prevalent. Total mortgage applications, based on the group's seasonally adjusted market index, rose 8.5 percent to 665.6 last week to the highest since early October.

- Apple Inc(AAPL) is preparing to launch a tablet personal computer in late March or April, with manufacturer partners poised to roll out as many as 1 million units per month, according to an Oppenheimer research note.

- Traders have been scooping up Research in Motion's(RIMM) call options this week, betting the shares will benefit from a BlackBerry distribution deal in China and stronger-than-expected earnings.


La Tribune:

- Philippe Louis-Dreyfus, chairman of Louis Dreyfus Armateurs, expects bulk shipping rates for commodities to decline in 2010 and 2011. Louis-Dreyfus cited shipyard order books for his forecast.


Digitimes:

- DRAM prices are expected to bounce back in January 2010, according to Elpida Memory CEO Yukio Sakamoto, adding that he believes supply will run short of global DRAM demand in the upcoming year. Sakamoto also stressed Elpida's DRAM ties with Taiwan-based partners will remain close in the future. Sakamoto projected that DRAM demand bit growth will reach 50% in 2010, outpacing worldwide supply bit growth of 40%. Improved market conditions will help stabilize DRAM prices, said Sakamoto, adding that the price of mainstream DRAM chips will fluctuate between US$1.80 and $2.50 next year.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Growth (-.78%)

Sector Underperformers:
Hospitals (-2.14%), Oil Tankers (-1.79%) and Homebuilders (-1.34%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ECA, PL, CLMT, VQ, STD, BBV, TKC, TU, MTL, MDSO, WPRT, MDAS, DNDN, ARBA, NANO, ADSK, MW and PEP


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) WMB 2) SD 3) HES 4) MMM 5) TSO

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Growth (+.29%)

Sector Outperformers:
Steel (+1.78%), Oil Service (+1.25%) and HMOs (+.86%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
SSRI, SQNM, CLF, AAPL, HES, UNT, XCO, MBT, KTC, CCE, BAC, LQDT, HITK, CMTL, AVAV, SHLD, FMCN, GPOR, SHOO, SMED, CA, AMSC, ODFL, STRA, RIMM, GOLD, AAWW, ACGL, SSRI, COO, VCI and UNT


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) LNC 2) SVU 3) SAP 4) SCHW 5) VRSN

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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Wall Street banks have agreed to create credit-default swap indexes tied to U.S. prime-mortgage securities, in a move that may risk driving down prices for the bonds after a record rally. The benchmark contracts, similar to ABX index swaps linked to subprime loans, may begin trading as soon as the first quarter of 2010, Michael Gormley, a Markit Group Ltd. spokesman, said today in an e-mailed statement. ABX indexes were last year dubbed “Frankenstein’s monster” by Glenn Schultz, a debt analyst now with Wells Fargo & Co., after they helped create a financial crisis by both highlighting the falling value of subprime debt in 2007 and weakening banks by allowing speculators to drive down prices by more than some investors thought reasonable, constraining credit and harming housing. The new indexes may be called ABX. Prime. “At first it will be the rage and you will have plenty of guys that I think will want to short this all day,” Jesse Litvak, a mortgage-bond trader at Jefferies & Co. in New York, said in a note to clients today. After “a lengthy consultation period,” dealers have also agreed to create so-called total return indexes called IOX, and linked to mortgage securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, the government-supported mortgage-finance company, Markit’s Gormley said in the e-mail. London-based Markit is owned by banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS), Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. and administers credit-default swap indexes, including CMBX indexes tied to commercial-mortgage securities. Typical prices for the most-senior fixed-rate prime-jumbo mortgage bonds have risen to 83 cents on the dollar from 63 cents in mid-March, according to Barclays Capital data.

- Americans have grown gloomier about both the economy and the nation’s direction over the past three months even as the U.S. shows signs of moving from recession to recovery. Almost half the people now feel less financially secure than when President Barack Obama took office in January, a Bloomberg National Poll shows. “The recession may be over, but the administration seems to be losing the battle when it comes to winning the hearts and minds of Americans,” says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “This is important because the spending of consumers is the main factor that will turn the economic recovery into a self- sustaining one.” The economy is the country’s top concern, with persistently high unemployment the greatest threat the public sees. Eight of 10 Americans rate joblessness a high risk to the economy in the next two years, outranking the federal budget deficit, which is cited by 7 of 10. An increase in taxes is named as a high risk by almost 6 of 10. Fewer than 1 in 3 Americans think the economy will improve in the next six months. They are pessimistic that the government will succeed in reducing unemployment or lowering the budget deficit. A year into Obama’s presidency, only 32 percent of poll respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction, down from 40 percent who said so in September. The mood among members of Obama’s own Democratic Party has shifted most dramatically: While Democrats remain the most positive, the proportion saying the country is on the right track dropped to 58 percent from 71 percent in September. Among independents, 26 percent say the country is on the right track, down from 29 percent in September. The country has grown increasingly skeptical of the centerpiece of Obama’s economic agenda, the $787 billion economic-stimulus package, with 60 percent of Americans saying it hasn’t helped the economy, up from 49 percent who said that three months ago. Michele Crawford, 37, a Las Vegas health-care worker who identified herself as a Democrat, says the stimulus plan put too much money in the hands of corporations rather than sending it directly to families through tax cuts. “I think that was the wrong approach,” Crawford says. Some of the malaise may stem from middle-class households bracing for the expectation of greater burdens ahead, says J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. Almost 9 in 10 poll respondents say they believe middle-class Americans will have to make sacrifices to decrease the deficit.

- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to tell Congress that the Obama administration will extend the $700 billion financial-rescue program until next October, people familiar with the matter said. While the Troubled Asset Relief Program expires on Dec. 31, Geithner can extend it by notifying Congress.

- Japan’s economy expanded less than a third of the pace initially reported in the three months to September as companies slashed spending. Gross domestic product rose at an annual 1.3 percent pace, slower than the 4.8 percent reported in preliminary figures last month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The revision was deeper than the predictions of all but one of the 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

- The U.S. Senate refused to add stricter limits on abortion funding to health-care legislation, jeopardizing Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson’s support for the overall plan. The Senate voted 54-45 to reject Nelson’s amendment. “This is not the right place for this debate,” Reid said before lawmakers voted to take the amendment from consideration on the Senate floor. “We have to get on with the larger issue at hand” and work on the health-care plan, he said. After the vote, Nelson said the amendment’s defeat makes it harder for him to support the legislation, although he’ll listen to compromises on abortion if someone offers them. “We’ll just have to see what develops,” Nelson told reporters. “I don’t have a Plan B. I don’t know if anyone else has a Plan B. But I don’t see much room for compromise.” Anti-abortion activists criticized the vote and called on Democrats who oppose abortion to vote against the larger bill. “The vote reflects a callous disregard for the protection of innocent human life,” said Jay Sekulow, chief counsel of the American Center for Law & Justice, a Washington-based group that describes itself as focusing on constitutional law. Senator Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat, called the vote a victory for women’s health and said it sent a message to lawmakers who supported Nelson’s amendment.

- Legislation pending in the U.S. Congress to cut greenhouse-gas emissions may reduce imports of Chinese goods by 20 percent, a World Bank study said. The provision, included in the measure passed by the U.S. House in June, would tax imports from countries that don’t enact curbs on carbon-dioxide emissions. Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Representative Sander Levin of Michigan, both Democrats, say any legislation in the U.S. to limit pollutants must include the so-called border measures to tax imports. The Senate hasn’t yet acted on the greenhouse-gas measure. “People haven’t thought through the full implications of those measures,” Aaditya Mattoo, a World Bank economist and one of the paper’s authors said in an interview. Advocates say the fees are needed to prevent price- undercutting by manufacturers in countries that won’t match U.S. or European Union climate-change standards. The World Bank study said U.S. and EU manufacturers of steel, cement, plastics, paper and chemicals have reason to be worried. If the U.S. follows through on a pledge to cut emissions by 17 percent, “producers of energy-intensive” goods “will witness erosion in their competitiveness, reflected in export and output declines,” the paper says. Their output could fall 4 percent and exports by 12 percent, the report says. The prospect of that decline will prompt “tremendous pressure to address the competitiveness issue,” Mattoo said in an interview. Depending on how the U.S. and EU calculate taxes on imports, the effect on China and India would be that of a 20 percent tariff, the World Bank analysis says. That new tax would cut 20 percent from Chinese exports to the U.S., and 8 percent from other developing nations, the report said. “It would be a ‘nuclear option’ in terms of trade consequences,” according to the World Bank paper.

- China plans to require all the nation’s steel mills to have at least 1 million tons of capacity, according to draft regulations posted today to the Web site of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The plan aims to curb overcapacity in the steel industry, according to the statement.


Wall Street Journal:

- Developing countries at the United Nations climate summit demanded that rich nations commit money and accept sharper cuts in their emissions, highlighting the divisions among the world's rich and poor nations that stand in the way of a new global climate deal. Representatives of China, the world's largest greenhouse-gas emitter, said President Barack Obama's proposal that the U.S. reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020 isn't ambitious enough. Su Wei, the Chinese chief negotiator, said industrialized countries must provide money and technology for developing countries as they seek to limit their greenhouse-gas emissions.

- The biggest risk to global economic recovery is the likely prospect that interest rates will have to rise before banks' balance sheets have been repaired, Mario Draghi, chairman of the Financial Stability Board, warned Tuesday. Several leading central banks already have begun to withdraw some of the programs that were put in place to counter the most severe downturn since World War II. While officials are expected to be cautious in raising rates, the International Monetary Fund estimates that close to half of global bank losses have yet to be disclosed. "The biggest risk is that for various reasons, interest rates might have to rise again when banks' balance sheets have not been repaired yet," Mr. Draghi said at The Wall Street Journal Future of Finance Initiative. "They may rise for monetary policy reasons, and if you think [about it], it's going to be very likely, because the process whereby banks will repair their balance sheets is a lengthy one," he said. "It's going to take several years."


MarketWatch:

- Stock market down but not out, according to Dow transports. Much-watched index reaffirms view that recovery has traction, matching FedEx(FDX).


CNBC.com:

- Job-creating legislation taking shape in Congress could carry a price tag of $75 billion to $200 billion, with much of that funded by leftover bank-bailout money, House Democrats said Tuesday.


IBD:

- For months, Cheesecake Factory's (CAKE) namesake concept has fared a lot better than its casual-dining peers with their lower check averages and simpler menus.


Business Week:
- Greek Debt Threatens the Euro. Europe's economy is improving, but Greece's public debt is so high that the country could default—with potentially dire results for the common currency.


CNNMoney.com:

- Cash for Caulkers could seal $12,000 a home. President Obama proposed a new program Tuesday that would reimburse homeowners for energy-efficient appliances and insulation, part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy. The administration didn't provide immediate details, but said it would work with Congress on crafting legislation. Steve Nadel, director at the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, who's helping write the bill, said a homeowner could receive up to $12,000 in rebates.


Politico:

- Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele urged President Barack Obama to push back health care reform on Tuesday, arguing that Obama should be solely focused on a still lagging economy. “Congress can’t afford to throw the American people further in debt now and splurge on a risky health care bill when we may need all the resources at our disposal next year to rebuild a sagging economy,” Steele wrote in a letter than will be sent to the White House on Tuesday. “We are asking you to delay your efforts to push your health care bill through Congress by the end of the year,” Steele continued. “Until we are sure job creation has begun in earnest, we should put aside our differences on health care. We should watch our spending. We've got an economy to rebuild and restore.”

- Senate Democrats have reached a "broad agreement" on a health reform bill, Majority Leader Harry Reid said Tuesday night — a plan that negotiators have said would create a new national health-care plan with private insurers, and a chance for older Americans to “buy in” to Medicare. Democrats on Tuesday night took a major step forward on a plan by agreeing to ask congressional scorekeepers to give them cost estimates on a possible compromise that would break the impasse on the public option in the Senate bill. The broad outlines of the deal had been discussed for days, but Democrats emerged from a closed-door session about 8 p.m. with news of the breakthrough. Some were reluctant to call it a deal until hearing back from the Congressional Budget Office about how much the proposed new provisions would cost.


Rasmussen:

- President Obama hopes to use money still unspent from the $787-billion economic stimulus plan to fight the nation’s 10% unemployment rate, and one of the ideas on the table is to channel money to states to keep them from laying off public employees. But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 22% of Americans favor providing federal bailout funds to states with serious financial problems. Fifty-eight percent (58%) oppose giving bailout money to financially troubled states. On top of that, 56% of Americans oppose the passage of another economic stimulus package this year.


CNN:

- For the first time in more than two and a half years, a majority of the American public no longer believes global warming is a "proven fact" that is mostly caused by man, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research. Only 45% of those surveyed agreed with the statement that "Global warming is a proven fact and is mostly caused by emissions from cars and industrial facilities such as power plants and factories." That number is down from 54% who agreed with the statement in June of last year and in May of 2007.


The Business Insider:

- Companies who have been marketing themselves via Tiger Woods have freaked out over Tigergate and have now decided to pull all prime time ads:


USA Today.com:

- USA TODAY's John Fritze reports from Capitol Hill that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid isn't about to back down from his comments yesterday comparing health care critics to slavery apologists. The Nevada Democrat came out of caucus luncheon this afternoon without saying anything about health care. He did defend himself from critics, including Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who urged Reid to apologize for his comments.


Reuters:

- Hedge fund manager John Paulson said on Tuesday he still sees compelling long-term returns in equities even after their sharp run-up this year, while holding no short positions in the credit markets. "Today our net long exposure is perhaps the highest it has ever been in our portfolio," Paulson said during a luncheon presentation at the Japan Society. "We still find a lot of compelling long investments on the equity side," he said, citing specifically Bank of America (BAC), U.S. cable-television giant Comcast Corp (CMCSA), and Germany's HeidelbergCement AG (HEIG.DE).

- A hedge fund is paying $5 million to settle a long-running lawsuit filed by online retailer Overstock.com (OSTK), the Salt Lake City-based company said Tuesday. The settlement comes some four years after Overstock sued the hedge fund, once known as Rocker Partners, claiming it waged a campaign to drive down the company's share price. The lawsuit was championed by Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne, who has been an outspoken and controversial critic of short sellers, or traders who bet on a stock's decline.

- Chip maker Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) raised its current-quarter profit forecast and said revenue would reach the high end of its target, disappointing some investors who had hoped for a stronger outlook on signs of improving demand in the wider chip market. Shares of TI fell 2 pct after its mid-quarter update, following a 12 percent rally since late October on high hopes that chip sales would recover more quickly as the economy improves. But TI, which makes chips for everything from cars to computers, said demand was increasing so quickly, particularly for analog chips, that it was having a hard time keeping up. Ron Slaymaker, TI's head of investor relations, told analysts on a conference call that TI was unlikely to lose clients as a result of the shortages because its rivals are also facing the same supply bottlenecks. "The pressures that the rapid increase in demand have placed on us are not dissimilar from what many of our competitors are seeing as well," Slaymaker said. "October and November were both strong months. We're not depending on an exceptionally strong December to meet our guidance, but not seeing anything to lead us to believe December would be exceptionally weak either," the executive said.


Financial Times:

- Angela Merkel's new government looks set to pass the biggest test to its unity so far with the likely adoption next week of a €8.5bn ($7.7bn) package of tax cuts by the parliamentary upper house.


Telegraph:

- Baroness Vadera, the adviser to the G20 Presidency, has warned that some of Europe's biggest banks have yet to "come clean" on the extent of their losses and could still provide shocks to the financial system.

- Paul Volcker, the chairman of President Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, stunned a business conference in Sussex yesterday, saying there is "little evidence innovation in financial markets has had a visible effect on the productivities of the economy".


TimesOnline:

- Bankers across the City are trying to change the terms of their pay deals to avoid Alistair Darling’s threatened bonus tax on their earnings. Financiers are in frantic talks with their employers, having moved swiftly over the past few days to try to avoid punitive taxes on their bonuses. The City is scared that Mr Darling will use today’s Pre-Budget Report to announce such a one-off levy. And high earners have rushed to make contingency plans with their employers, lawyers and accountants. Schemes to reduce a heavy tax bill include:

- Markets tell Darling: it's time to end the spending.


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (PG), target $66.

- Upgraded (MMM) to Buy, target $92.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.50% to unch. on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 104.50 +4.0 basis point.
S&P 500 futures +.24%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.


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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (HITK)/.32

- (JTX)/-.74

- (PLL)/.40

- (CRI)/.67


Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- Wholesale Inventories for October are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.9% decline in September.


10:30 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +250,000 barrels versus a +2,091,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by +1,600,000 barrels versus a +3,996,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -750,000 barrels versus a -1,170,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by +.2% versus a -.59% decline the prior week.


Upcoming Splits
- None of note


Other Potential Market Movers
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The Fed's Duke speaking, Treasury's 10-Year Auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (BDC) analyst day, (ENOC) analyst meeting, (VRGY) analyst meeting, (EHTH) analyst meeting, BofA Industrials Conference, UBS Media/Communications Conference, Wells Fargo Real Estate Conference, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference and the Barclays Tech Conference could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.