Monday Watch

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (GTLS), (CASY), (MYL), (WAG), (WFC), (C), (MON), (AU) and (AIMC).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -4.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.37%
NASDAQ 100 futures +.41%

Morning Preview
BNO Breaking Global News of Note
Google Top Stories
Bloomberg Breaking News
Yahoo Most Popular Business Stories
MarketWatch News Viewer
Asian Financial News
European Financial News
Latin American Financial News
MarketWatch Pre-Market Commentary
U.S. Equity Preview
TradeTheNews Morning Report(9:30 am EST)
Briefing.com In Play
SeekingAlpha Market Currents
Briefing.com Bond Ticker
CNN US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-Market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ International Market Performance
Commodities Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Conference Calendar
Who's Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CEP)/-.10
- (BRCD)/.15
- (CPB)/.74
- (LOW)/.12
- (PWR)/.21
- (JWN)/.79
- (DNDN)/-.27
- (RSH)/.59
- (PEGA)/.14

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January is estimated to rise to -.19 versus -.61 in December.

10:30 am EST
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for February is estimated to rise +10.0% versus a +8.3% gain in January.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Yellen speaking, Treasury's $8B 30-yr TIPS auction, $26 bln 3-month and $28 bln 6-month Treasury Bills Auctions, Goldman Tech Conference, CSFB Services Conference, (HON) investor conference and the (XLNX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.

Click here for TradeTheNews.com Weekly Calendar.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising sovereign debt worries, profit-taking and China bubble/trade fears offset lower energy prices, mostly positive earnings reports, less economic pessimism and short-covering.  My trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,109.17 +2.85%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,109.17 +2.85%
DJIA 10,402.35 +2.55%
NASDAQ 2,243.87 +3.05%
Russell 2000 631.62 +4.32%
Wilshire 5000 11,391.35 +3.08%
Russell 1000 Growth 496.57 +2.78%
Russell 1000 Value 567.22 +3.18%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 674.13 +2.64%

Morgan Stanley Cyclical 829.86 +4.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 565.44 +2.80%
Transports 4,060.52 +3.50%
Utilities 377.10 +2.65%
MSCI Emerging Markets 39.29 +1.40%

Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 960.71 +.25%

Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 847.99 +.55%

Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 929.18 -3.52%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +74,350 +11.42%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +187 +158
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 31.0 -38.0%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +68,436 +62.71%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,301,624 -.46%
Total Put/Call .82 -2.38%
OEX Put/Call .82 -42.66%
ISE Sentiment 92.0 -10.68%
NYSE Arms 1.03 +22.62%
Volatility(VIX) 20.02 -16.61%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.16 -3.06%
Smart Money Flow Index 9,347.25 +2.72%

Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.161 Trillion -1.2%
AAII % Bulls 35.85 -2.45%
AAII % Bears 35.22 -15.90%

Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 277.80 +3.0%

Crude Oil 79.81 +6.10%
Reformulated Gasoline 208.57 +8.10%
Natural Gas 5.04 -6.65%
Heating Oil 206.99 +5.60%
Gold 1,122.10 +2.35%
Bloomberg Base Metals 205.32 +6.09%
Copper 337.90 +7.02%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 301.67 USD/Ton unch.

China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 3,815 Yuan/Ton unch.

S&P GSCI Agriculture 332.07 -.39%

Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 128.40 -1.23%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index +37.60 -10.26%

Fed Fund Futures imply 64.60% chance of no change, 35.4% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/16

US Dollar Index 80.55 +.68%

Yield Curve 285.0 -1.0 basis point

10-year US Treasury Yield 3.77% +8 basis points

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet $2.259 Trillion +.90%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.0 -16.0%

Western Europe Sovereign Credit Default Swap Index 88.66 -5.68%

10-year TIPS Spread 2.28% +3 basis points
TED Spread 16.0 unch.
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 92.34 -7.90%

Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 86.36 -5.36%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 273.92 -3.36%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 360.0 -41.0 basis points

M1 Money Supply $1.697 Trillion +.30%

Business Loans 649.80 -.17%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 467,500 -.30%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.5% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 4.93% -4 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 600.50 -2.06%

ABC Consumer Confidence -49 -1 point
Weekly Retail Sales +1.90% -10 basis points
Nationwide Gas $2.62/gallon -.01/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 7.0% above normal
Baltic Dry Index 2,704 +5.01%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 50.0 unch.

Rail Freight Carloads 192,354 -4.39%

Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 77.88 +.41%

Best Performing Style
Small-Cap Value +4.88%

Worst Performing Style
Large-Cap Growth +2.78%

Leading Sectors
Steel +7.89%

REITs +6.92%

Hospitals +5.54%

Coal +5.40%
Networking +4.30%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders +1.67%

Drugs +1.31%

Gold +.74%

Telecom +.17%
HMOs -1.98%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher, Boosted by Transportation, Gaming, Financial, Networking, Steel and Oil Service Shares

Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets
Today’s Movers
StockCharts Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Morningstar Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
Most Recent Guru Stock Picks
CNN PM Market Call
After-hours Stock Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Sovereign Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Less Economic Fear, Technical Buying

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Financial longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling -4.41% and is around average at 19.72. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 101.0 and the total put/call is around average at .83. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 2.10 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.12. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -3.15% to 86.62 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -2.73% to 92.34 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 16 basis points. The TED spread is now down 447 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10^th, 2008. The 2-year swap spread is falling -.59% to 28.70 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down -2 basis points to 8 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -5 bps to 2.28%, which is down -38 basis points since July 7^th, 2008. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .09%, which is unch. today. Emerging market shares are relatively weak today. As well, Education, Alt Energy, HMO and Computer shares are down -1.0%+. Market leaders are mixed. The Euro is bouncing today on record short bets on the currency and its technically oversold state. The Citi Eurozone economic surprise index has fallen to -16.90 from +91.0 in July of last year. The US economic surprise index is now +37.60, up from -24.0 in November. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Gaming, Insurance, Bank, Networking, Steel, Oil Service and Utility shares are especially strong, rising 1.25%+. (XLF) has traded well throughout the day and is at session highs. The 10-year CMBS/AAA spread plunged -10.2% this week, which is a large positive. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is dropping another -4.2%, however the Greece sov CDS is slightly higher. I still suspect next week’s trading will provide a better indication on the sustainability of the rally as Shanghai reopens and the Greece debt situation gains more clarity. Nikkei futures indicate an +187 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -13 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less economic fear, lower long-term rates, diminishing sovereign debt angst and technical buying.