Friday, December 16, 2011

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (+1.25%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +2.35% 2) Software +1.79% 3) HMOs +1.65%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ADBE, IPHI, RUSHA, ACTG, CVLT, WU, VRTX, AMGN, URI, RRR, CIE, MTZ, CAM, HANS and AIR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DHI 2) ETFC 3) ADBE 4) INHX 5) ENDP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ATHN 2) AKS 3) VRX 4) AMGN 5) NDSN
Charts:

Friday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomb
erg:
  • BofA(BAC), Goldman(GS), Barclays(BCS) Have Fitch Credit Ratings Cut. Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Citigroup Inc. (C) had their credit grades cut by Fitch Ratings as the impact of financial regulation and market turmoil (VIX) weighed on the industry. The lenders’ long-term issuer default ratings were cut one level to A from A+, Fitch said yesterday in a statement. Barclays Plc (BARC), based in London, Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and BNP Paribas SA also had their grades lowered. The moves complete a review of financial firms by the three major rating companies. Moody’s Investors Service cut banks in September, citing a lower probability that the U.S. will support the industry in an emergency. Standard & Poor’s lowered ratings last month. Lenders including Bank of America and Citigroup have said they may have to post billions of dollars in collateral and face higher funding costs in the event of downgrades.
  • CME(CME) Says MF Global Used Customer Money Days Before Failure. MF Global Holdings Ltd. used about $700 million of customer funds to "meet liquidity issues" at its broker-dealer in the days prior to its Oct. 31 bankruptcy filing, according to CME Group Inc. The exchange operator, which had auditing authority over MF Global, detailed its dealings with the failed futures broker in documents released today by the House Financial Services Committee. MF Global officials told Chicago-based CME Group there was a shortfall in accounts with money moved on Oct. 27 and Oct. 28 and possibly as early as Oct. 26, according to a CME Group timeline. Customer funds were also used to make a $175 million loan to the firm's UK subsidiary, the documents show.
  • Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since September on Industrial Weakness. Oil headed for the biggest weekly decline since September in New York as investors speculated that fuel demand will falter amid shrinking industrial production from the U.S. to Europe and China. Futures were little changed after falling yesterday as figures from the Federal Reserve showed output at factories, mines and utilities in the U.S. slid 0.2 percent in November, the first decrease since April. Chinese factory production may drop for a second month in December, preliminary results from a Markit Economics survey indicated. Euro area manufacturers face a fifth straight month of contraction, a separate report showed. “The demand situation is starting to weigh on the market,” said Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Pty in Sydney. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, may boost crude output by 0.6 percent this month as Libya raises production, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements.
  • RIM(RIMM) Forecast Misses Analyst Estimates. Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) fell as much as 8.3 percent in extended trading after saying a new generation of BlackBerrys designed to fuel a comeback won’t be out until the “latter part” of 2012. The smartphone maker, which originally planned to release the new devices in the first quarter of next year, also gave a sales and profit forecast that missed analysts’ estimates. The delay adds to the challenges at RIM, which has lost market share to Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone and Android phones. The company also flubbed its entry into the tablet market, with a device that bombed with shoppers. After all that, investors may not trust the new target for the upgraded BlackBerrys, said Alkesh Shah, an analyst at Evercore Partners Inc. “Given the misexecution they’ve had recently, it’s hard to use that as a solid deadline,” said the New York-based analyst, who has an “equalweight” rating on RIM shares. “Let’s say it’s a year from now, my concern is that it may be too late.” RIM fell as low as $13.88 in late trading after the announcement, which accompanied its third-quarter earnings results. The stock had already dropped 74 percent this year.
  • Adobe Forecasts Sales That May Top Estimates On New Programs. Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) forecast fiscal first-quarter sales that may top analysts’ estimates amid buoyant demand for a new breed of tools that help customers design Web pages and create online video. Revenue in the quarter that ends March 3 will be $1.03 billion to $1.08 billion, the company said in a statement today. That compared with $1.06 billion, the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Profit excluding certain items will be 54 cents to 59 cents a share, compared with the average 58-cent estimate. Shares gained in late trading.
  • FX Concepts' John Taylor Says Euro May Decline to Parity With U.S. Dollar. The euro will sink to parity against the dollar as the European sovereign-debt crisis shrinks investor appetite for the 17-nation currency, according to John Taylor, founder of the world’s largest currency hedge fund. “It should be a lot lower than it is,” Taylor said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” with Lisa Murphy. “It’s a distinct possibility” that the euro could weaken to trade on a one-to-one basis with its U.S. counterpart in the next 18 months, he said. Taylor predicted in January that the euro would fall below parity with the dollar this year. The shared currency has dropped 2.7 percent this year as the region’s leaders bailed out Portugal after providing rescue packages in 2010 for Ireland and Greece and attempted to rein in rising sovereign debt yields. The currency is trading 8 percent higher against the dollar than its average value of $1.2042 since inception in 1999. Taylor, who said he owns more dollars than anything else, cited European investors repatriating foreign assets as the main driver of the euro’s relative strength this year. European portfolio managers brought home 65.9 billion euros ($85.8 billion) in August and 11.6 billion euros in September, higher than the 12-month average of 629 million euros in inflows, according to European Central Bank data compiled by Bloomberg. Repatriation is occurring as banks rush to increase capital to meet a European Banking Authority mandate that lenders increase their Core Tier 1 capital ratios to more than 9 percent by mid-2012, Taylor said.
  • India Profit Forecasts Cut Most Since '09 as Sensex Lags. Indian stocks are ending 2011 with the biggest decline among the world’s largest equity markets, and analysts say the worst is yet to come. Earnings forecasts for BSE India Sensitive Index companies for the year ending in March 2012 have fallen 7.9 percent to 1,160 rupees per share, the biggest drop since the 12 months ended March 2009, according to about 1,500 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts cut outlooks for Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., the country’s biggest carmaker, and Tata Steel Ltd., the largest producer of the alloy, by at least 29 percent, the data show.
  • Chinese Stocks Head for Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2010. China’s benchmark index headed for its biggest weekly losses in 17 months on concern exports will slump next year and the government won’t ease monetary policy fast enough to stem an economic slowdown. China Cosco Holdings Co., the nation’s largest shipping line, slid 1.1 percent after Commerce Minister Chen Deming said he is “not too optimistic” about exports in 2012. Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. dropped for a sixth day amid speculation the economic slowdown will curb energy demand. New China Life Insurance Co., the third-biggest life insurer, jumped 12 percent in its debut. “Investors are still concerned whether the economic slowdown will be gradual and whether consumer prices will rise,” said Wei Wei, an analyst at West China Securities Co. in Shanghai. “Any gain will be short term.” The Shanghai Composite has slid 6 percent this week, poised for the biggest drop since the week ending July 2, 2010, after reports showed economic growth is decelerating. Foreign direct investment dropped for the first time since 2009, while manufacturing may contract for a second month. The Conference Board’s leading index for China, which captures prospects over the next six months, fell in October, while lending slowed in November and money supply grew the least in a decade.
  • Mercedes Leads Luxury-Car Discounts in China as Economy Slows. Mercedes-Benz and BMW dealers deepened their discounts on some models in China last month as slowing property and stock markets weighed on premium-car purchases, according to a research firm. Average prices of Daimler AG’s basic 2012 Mercedes-Benz C200 sedan at Chinese dealerships were 16 percent below the manufacturer’s recommended price last month, compared with 14 percent in October and 3.4 percent in July, when the model became available, according to data from China Auto Market. BMW dealers sold the 2012 320i sedan 11 percent below the suggested price, more than triple the initial discount for the 2011 model. Daimler, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Volkswagen AG’s Audi are looking to the world’s biggest car market to prop up deliveries as European demand sags on concern over the region’s sovereign debt crisis. A slowdown in China’s property and stock markets will probably undermine discretionary spending, according to Credit Suisse Group AG and BNP Paribas SA. “Competition is getting fierce, especially in the entry- level luxury car segment,” said John Zeng, a Shanghai-based director at researcher LMC Automotive Asia Pacific. “BMW, Mercedes and Audi are expanding their capacity in China and the majority of that capacity is used to make the entry-level models, and that’s increasing the competition.”
  • Einhorn Trades Swaps for Shorts When Betting on Sovereign Debt. David Einhorn, the hedge-fund manager who compared the Greek bailout to a surrealist painting, recast a bet against sovereign debt in a way that reduces risks posed by government regulators and big banks.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Ties That Bound Europe Now Fraying. A common currency drove investors to Europe's outer reaches, then scared them away. The first decade of the euro intertwined the Continent's financial systems as never before. Banks and investment funds in one euro-using country gorged on the bonds of others, freed of worry about devaluation-prone currencies like the drachma, lira, peseta and escudo. But as the devaluation danger waned, another risk grew, almost unseen by investors: the chance that governments, no longer backed by national central banks, could default.
  • Broadcom(BRCM) CEO Sees Closing Cellular Chip Gap With Qualcomm(QCOM).Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) expects to close the gap with Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) in chips that connect phones to wireless networks in the next couple years, the semiconductor maker's chief executive said. Scott McGregor, speaking in an interview a day after Broadcom's analyst meeting in New York, acknowledged Qualcomm's current lead over the company in so-called cellular baseband chips used in mobile phones, but he said Broadcom's new focus on smartphones and next-generation 4G technology, known as Long-Term Evolution, will help it compete.
  • Beijing Set to 'Strike Hard' at Revolt. A senior local official has vowed to "strike hard" against the leaders of a revolt in the southern Chinese fishing village of Wukan, and urged them to surrender, at the same time as announcing the property project that triggered the unrest is being put on hold. The comments by Wu Zili, the acting mayor of Shanwei prefecture, which includes Wukan, suggested that authorities were taking a cautious, carrot-and-stick approach as they attempt to resolve the situation without embarrassing Beijing by prompting further violence or emboldening other protesters.
  • Solyndra Does Europe. Germany's solar power industry is the latest to flop as subsidies ebb.
  • Congress Blinks on Shutdown. Congressional leaders—fearful of voters' wrath over Washington's bickering and brinkmanship—stepped back Thursday from a possible government shutdown, clearing the way for at least a short-term extension of a payroll tax cut that is set to expire at year's end. The shift marked a dizzying change in tone from the contentious atmosphere that prevailed just a day earlier. Republican and Democratic leaders returned to the bargaining table and struck a deal on a $1 trillion spending bill to keep the government operating after Friday.
  • Gingrich Defends Stances in Debate. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich used a televised debate Thursday to try to keep momentum going in his front-running presidential campaign.
  • Why Ron Paul Can't Win. The candidate's problem isn't better-funded opponent or media bias—it's his own views on foreign policy.
  • The Keystone Ultimatum. Will Obama veto a tax holiday to stop a job-creating pipeline?
Zero Hedge:
CNBC:
Gallup:
Reuters:
  • Accenture(ACN) Sounds Caution as Economy Sputters. Accenture Plc posted strong quarterly results but the technology outsourcing and consulting company's cautious view of the second quarter amid the worsening global economy sent its shares down after market. For the second quarter, the company forecast revenue of $6.5-$6.8 billion, a wider-than-usual range, to factor in any delays at the end of the calendar year, especially in the Eurozone.
Financial Times:
  • EFSF Weighs Euro Break-Up Warnings for Product Prospectus. The EFSF is weighing including on a product prospectus, among four pages of "risk factors," warnings against the possibility of a country exiting the euro or "the cessation of the euro as a lawful currency," citing the latest draft.
Telegraph:
Financial Times Deutschland:
  • Germany's central bank expects any bigger involvement by the IMF in trying to resolve Europe's debt crisis to increase the risk of financial losses for Germany, as its participation would also be enlarged, citing people at the Bundesbank.
Business Line:
  • JSW Steel may slash FY12 capex by half. JSW Steel Ltd proposes to reduce its capital expenditure by over half for the current fiscal and go slow with its capacity expansion. This is because the company is going through tough times with a huge debt burden of over Rs 18,400 crore in the backdrop of sluggish demand for steel.
Business Spectator:
  • Australian Banks Ordered to Conduct Stress Tests: Report. With the European debt crisis in focus, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has ordered Australian banks to conduct stress tests on their ability to withstand a sharp spike in unemployment, a collapse of property prices and a broader recession, according to a report by the Australian Financial Review.

CCTV:

  • Beijing Requires Microblog Users to Identify Themselves. All new users will be required from today to register themselves with government agencies for a microblog account, citing new Beijing municipal government regulations. All existing users will also be required to register within three months.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 212.0 -3.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 157.75 -.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.29%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.34%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (DRI)/.43
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Consumer Price Index for November is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in October.
  • The CPI Ex Food & Energy for November is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in October.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Evans speaking and the ECB's Draghi speaking could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Better US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Seasonality, Euro Bounce


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 25.22 -3.15%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +30.86%
  • Total Put/Call 1.24 +14.81%
  • NYSE Arms .94 -32.76%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 127.97 -2.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 305.25 -3.23%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 382.68 -1.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 314.24 -1.20%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 48.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 56.0 +1 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -140.0 +7.0 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  • Yield Curve 167.0 +1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $133.80/Metric Tonne -.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.90 -3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 -2 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my Medical, Retail and Biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish, as the S&P 500 bounces back right near its 50-day moving average this morning despite Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth fears and tech sector pessimism. On the positive side, Utility, Drug, Hospital, HMO, Homebuilding, REIT, Education and Airline shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.25%. Small-caps are outperforming. Gold is down -.4%, Lumber is rising +2.6% and Oil is dropping -1.4%. Oil traded very poorly again today as it failed to bounce with the market on some good economic news and is at session lows below its 50 and 200-day moving averages. The Germany sovereign cds is falling -3.2% to 102.50, the France sovereign cds is falling - 5.09% to 225.0 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is falling -2.09% to 561.50 bps and the Spain sovereign cds is down -2.7% to 435.17 bps. On the negative side, Coal, Oil Service and Software shares are under pressure, falling more than -.5%. (XLK) has traded poorly again throughout the day. Copper is falling -.5%. The 10-year yield is flat at 1.91% despite some better economic data and today's stock bounce. The China sovereign cds is climbing +1.8% to 148.61 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is up +1.0% to 160.0 bps. Moreover, the Asia-Pacific Sovereign CDS Index is up +2.0% to 159.0 bps. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still very near its all-time high. The TED spread continues to trend higher and is at the highest since May 2009. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euribor-OIS spread is very near the highest since February 2009. The 3M EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap is rising +4.8% to -140.0 bps, which is back to Nov. 24th levels. The Libor-OIS spread is rising to the widest since May 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the equity surge off the recent lows. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -30.3% since February 16th and -26.1% since Sept. 7th. The China Corporate Blended Spread Index is rising +1.4% today to 792.0 bps, which is very close to another technical breakout. The Citi Asia-Pacific Economic Surprise Index is at -25.4, which is right at the worst since April 2009. Asian equities continue to trade very poorly. The Shanghai Composite fell another -2.1% overnight and is down -22.3% ytd(lowest since March 2009). Taiwan shares fell -2.3% and are down -24.6% ytd(testing late Nov. lows). Brazil's Bovespa fell -.6% today and is down -18.7% ytd. European credit gauges are still performing very poorly given that the European debt crisis “can-kicking” solution is supposedly at hand, which remains a large red flag. The AAAII % Bulls rose to 40.2 this week, while the % Bears fell to 33.6%, which is a negative given the still developing significant macro headwinds. Trading still has an overall complacent feel as volume remains poor, leadership is lacking and each push lower is met by sloppy dip-buying. The market still appears to want to go lower short-term before any year-end rally materializes. I am still very cautious on the intermediate-term. This is likely due to year-end window-dressing and seasonality. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth fears, tech sector pessimism, technical selling and more shorting.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Draghi Says Short-Term Contraction in Euro Area Unavoidable Amid Austerity. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro area may not be able to escape a recession due to governments’ austerity measures. “The unavoidable short-term contraction may be mitigated by the return of confidence,” Draghi said during a speech in Berlin today. “But in the medium term, sustainable growth can be achieved only by undertaking deep structural reforms that have been procrastinated for too long.”
  • IMF's Lagarde: Europe Crisis 'Escalating'. The European debt crisis is growing to the point that it won’t be solved by one group of countries, Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund said today. Lagarde said that if countries don’t work together, the world will face a situation similar to the 1930s, before the world slid into World War II. “There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super- advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding, but escalating at a point where everybody would actually have to focus on what it can do,” Lagarde said. If the international community doesn’t work together, “the risk from an economic point of view is that of retraction, rising protectionism, isolation,” Lagarde said. “This is exactly the description of what happened in the ‘30s and what followed is not something we are looking forward to.” Lagarde said the world economic outlook “is quite gloomy” with pervasive downside risk, downward revisions, slower growth than expected, higher deficits than predicted and public finances in shaky condition. “And that is pretty much true the world over,” Lagarde said.
  • BlackRock(BLK) Says Euro Area Headed for 'Full-Fledged' Recession. BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest asset manager, said European nations including France and Germany are headed for a recession as the prolonged debt crisis has prompted companies to cut spending and stop hiring. “We now believe that we’re in for a full-fledged recession, including one in France and Germany, that could cut GDP by 1 percent to 2 percent,” according to a note published today by New York-based BlackRock’s investment institute. “Short-term austerity measures could worsen the recession, defeating their very purpose of closing budget gaps.”
  • Peripheral Europe May Face a Run on Banks in Coming Months, Kyle Bass. Kyle Bass, the Dallas-based hedge fund manager who said in 2009 that governments would default within three years, said Greek, Portuguese and Spanish depositors will withdraw money from banks in the coming months. “Just as Latvians ran to the ATMs this weekend, so will depositors all over peripheral Europe in the months ahead,” Bass, who runs Hayman Capital Management LP, said in an investor letter. “Deposits are now declining at an accelerated pace. What’s surprising is that it hasn’t happened much sooner.”
  • BlueCrest's Platt Says European Banks Insolvent. Michael Platt, the founder of the $30 billion hedge fund BlueCrest Capital Management LLP, said most of the banks in Europe are insolvent and the situation will worsen in 2012 as the region’s debt crisis accelerates. “I do not take any exposure to banks at all if I can avoid it,” Platt, 43, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track With Erik Schatzker.” If European lenders had to mark their books to markets every day in the same way hedge funds do, most would be proven “insolvent,” he said.
  • East Europe Confidence Falls More On Euro Crisis, ZEW Says. Central and eastern Europe’s economic outlook worsened further in December as the euro-area debt crisis undermined growth prospects, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research and Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) said. The economic-sentiment indicator, a measure of investor confidence in the region, fell 4.6 points to minus 41.4 points, ZEW and Erste Bank said today in an e-mailed statement.
  • Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop to Three-Year Low. The fewest workers in three years filed claims for U.S. jobless benefits last week, indicating the world’s largest economy is strengthening heading into 2012. The number of applications for unemployment payments dropped by 19,000 to 366,000 in the week ended Dec. 10, less than the lowest forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the least since May 2008, according to Labor Department figures issued today in Washington. Other reports showed manufacturing accelerated this month after pausing in November. “The U.S. economy, unlike the rest of the world, is gathering momentum as we head toward year-end,” said Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc. in New York.
  • China Halts Project as Protests Erupt Over Death of Villager, Land Sales. China’s Communist Party halted a real estate project and are investigating local officials in a village in Guangdong province where protests have led to it being cordoned off, state media reported. Authorities in Wukan village will be questioned and the property construction plan will be stopped, China News Service said. Future land development will be undertaken only with the approval of a majority of villagers, the report said, citing Wu Zili, the mayor of Shanwei, which has jurisdiction over Wukan.
  • India's Bond Yields at This Week's High on Inflation Concern. India’s 10-year bonds were little changed, holding yields at this week’s highest level, on concern an accelerated slide in the rupee will boost the cost of imports and spur inflation. The rupee slid 8.3 percent this quarter, the biggest drop among Asian currencies, and touched a record low of 54.3050 per dollar today. The benchmark wholesale-price index rose 9.11 percent in November from a year earlier, government data showed yesterday. The Reserve Bank of India will keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 8.50 percent at a policy review tomorrow, according to all 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey. “The central bank can’t afford to ease its policy stance as inflation continues to be a worry,” said N.S. Venkatesh, head of treasury at Mumbai-based IDBI Bank Ltd. “The rupee’s drop will also push prices higher.”
  • Manufacturing May Shrink From China to Europe as Demand Weakens: Economy. Manufacturing may contract this month from China to the euro region as global demand slows and Europe’s leaders struggle to contain the worsening debt crisis. Chinese factory output may decline for a second month in December as Europe’s fiscal woes weigh on exports and home sales slide, preliminary results from a Markit Economics survey indicate. In the euro area, manufacturers may face a fifth straight month of contraction as the region endures its worst quarter for 2 1/2 years, a separate report showed. Ripples from Europe’s debt turmoil have dented confidence among companies and consumers and hit global demand. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said last month that trade in goods stalled in most major economies in the third quarter and it cut its growth forecast. The slowdown is spilling over into unemployment, with Nokia Siemens Networks announcing last month that it plans to eliminate 17,000 jobs worldwide. “The near-term outlook is still bleak” in Europe, said Stella Wang, an economist at Nomura International Plc in London. “With the uncertainty about the sovereign debt crisis and slowing momentum of the euro area’s main trading partners, both businesses and consumers look set to continue holding back their investment and consumption decisions going into 2012.”
  • Chinese Cut Back on London Luxury Home Buying as Stock Market Losses Bite. Chinese investors’ share of prime London home purchases in the city’s most expensive neighborhoods fell by more than half in the third quarter as stock market declines hurt spending power, Hamptons International said. Buyers from the world’s second-largest economy accounted for 4.9 percent of sales in Chelsea, Kensington, Knightsbridge and Belgravia in the three months through September, down from 12.6 percent in the previous quarter, said Adam Challis, head of residential research the London-based property broker. They represented 10.6 percent of the purchases in the three months through March. “A lot of Asian wealth that’s spent on property is tied to the performance of equity markets,” Challis said in an interview. “When they wobble, there’s less money to spend.” The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 22 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average retreated 15 percent in the two months through September, as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis damped global investor confidence.
  • Crude Oil Decreases for Second Day as U.S. Industrial Production Falls. Oil fell to the lowest level in more than five weeks as U.S. industrial production declined for the first time in seven months, indicating a pause in manufacturing in the world’s largest oil-consuming country. Prices dropped as much as 1.1 percent after Federal Reserve data showed output at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2 percent in November. “The industrial demand number is weighing on the oil market,” said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, an energy research firm in London, Arkansas. “People are concerned that oil demand from factories will be weaker.” Crude for January delivery fell 86 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $94.09 a barrel at 1:15 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $93.87 a barrel, the lowest intraday level since Nov. 7.
  • Obama's Support Among Young People Slips. Thirty-six percent of Americans age 18 to 29 predict that Obama will lose the election next year, while 30 percent say he will win. College students, who gave Obama some of his strongest support in 2008, now give the president a 48 percent approval rating, down from 60 percent in February, according to the poll.
  • Morgan Stanley(MS) to Eliminate About 1,600 Jobs.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Japan Orders Citi(C) to Suspend Fund Sales, Rate Operations. Citigroup Inc. has been ordered by regulators to temporarily suspend its Japanese mutual-fund sales and interest-rate trading businesses as a result of regulatory sanctions, people familiar with the situation said. As a result of the sanctions, which are expected to be announced Friday by Japan's Financial Services Agency, Citigroup will be required to close its mutual-fund business for 30 days and its interest-rate trading operations for 10 days.
  • Businesses Preparing for Higher Costs in 2012. Business executives are expecting their costs to increase again next year. But they may not be able to pass those costs along to their customers.
  • ECB Chief Plays Down Hopes For Bigger Bond Purchases. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi praised the results of the European Union's latest summit as a "breakthrough" Thursday, and once more poured cold water on hopes that the ECB might ramp up its government bond purchases to end the debt crisis.
CNBC.com:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:

  • Greek Unemployment at Record High, Seen Rising Further. Unemployment jumped to 17.7 percent in the third quarter from 16.3 percent in the previous three-month period, the Greek statistics service said -- the highest quarterly unemployment rate recorded since the series started in 1998.

Telegraph:

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (+.07%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -1.20% 2) Oil Service -1.10% 3) Software -.73%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • HMY, WTI, MFN, QSII, ORCL, ITMN, PGN, LRCX, NDSN, DECK, VPHM, FSLR, ARBA, DMND, ATHN, NICE, BIDU, DTV, USEI, PAAS, NUVA, GMCR, HMIN, GOLD, VRA and PAY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CBS 2) ADBE 3) ARMH 4) XLP 5) EWJ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DECK 2) FSLR 3) MS 4) JCP 5) ATHN
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value (+.79%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +1.64% 2) Semis +1.44% 3) Drugs +1.39%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ARIA, ELN, NVS, SNCR, SONO, NVLS, FDX and ANV
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WLP 2) CS 3) PFE 4) DECK 5) TEVA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KO 2) CCE 3) BRCM 4) PCS 5) DFS
Charts: