Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Alt Energy +1.21% 2) Semis +1.13% 3) Computer Hardware +.89%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- COG, CHTR, BBG, WBMD, AVG, ARUN, BLOX, PAY, FIRE, HPQ, RKUS, ONXX, HMSY, SPWR and JCP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) AWAY 2) FTR 3) ARUN 4) FIRE 5) ODP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) WBMD 2) ESV 3) V 4) MRVL 5) HPQ
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Monti’s Austerity Pushes Italians Toward Parliamentary Upheaval. Elisa Dalbosco says she lost her job
when it came time for her former employer, a refugee shelter in much,” said Dalbosco, who at 26 is now unemployed and poised to
vote for self-described populist Beppe Grillo in elections on
Feb. 24 and Feb. 25. Dalbasco’s disappointment shows why Italy is braced for its
biggest political upheaval since 1994. Dalbosco, whose ballot
five years ago went to an ally of front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani, won’t vote for anyone tied to incumbent Mario Monti
because she says his austerity policies in a shrinking economy
put the interests of banks ahead of everyone else’s.
- Spain’s Graft Scandals Reach Palace as King’s Adviser Testifies. The graft allegations roiling the
Spanish elite may edge closer to the head of state, King Juan Carlos, when his son-in-law and a senior palace official testify
in court on corruption charges. Inaki Urdangarin, a former Olympic handball player married
to Princess Cristina, is due to answer questions in Mallorca
tomorrow as part of a private prosecution where he has been
named as an official suspect on six counts including fraud,
embezzlement and money laundering, a court spokeswoman said.
Magistrates on the tourist island will also question Carlos
Garcia Revenga, the princess’s personal secretary, who is also a
suspect, she said.
- Shanghai Composite Heads for Weekly Loss; Autos Lead Decline. China’s
benchmark stock index fell, heading for its steepest weekly loss in
five months. Automakers and metal shares slid, while consumer-staples
shares advanced. SAIC Motor Corp., the biggest automaker, climbed
2.2 percent, adding to a five-day loss of 9 percent. Chinese stocks
dropped this week on concern government policies to curb gains in
property prices may damp demand for autos, bank loans to construction
materials. New home prices rose in most cities the government tracks in
January, a government report today showed.
Kweichow Moutai Co. led a rally for liquor makers. The
Shanghai measure has dropped 4.4 percent this week, heading for
the biggest loss since September.
- China Home-Price Gains May Presage Policy Tightening: Economy. China’s
new home prices rose in most cities the government tracks for a third
month, adding pressure on leaders to intensify policy-tightening efforts
to prevent asset bubbles and inflation as the economy rebounds. Prices
climbed in January from December in 53 of the 70 cities, compared with
the previous month’s 54, which was the most since April 2011, according
to data today from the National Bureau of Statistics. Ten cities showed
declining prices and seven were unchanged.
- India Profit Growth Curbed by Slowing Economy, Kotak Says. India’s slowest economic expansion
in a decade is limiting profit growth at the biggest companies
even as foreigners remain net buyers of the nation’s stocks,
according to Kotak Institutional Equities. Earnings-per-share
(SENSEX) for the 30 companies making up the benchmark S&P Dow Jones
Sensex Index in the year ending March 31, 2014, will probably be 1,320
rupees, 2 percent below previous estimates, Sanjeev Prasad, co-head and
senior executive director at Kotak, said yesterday in Mumbai.
- CME(CME) Sued by CFTC for Disclosing Non-Public Information. CME
Group (CME) Inc., owner of the world’s largest futures exchange, and
two former employees were sued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission for disclosing
material non-public information on customer trades. William Byrnes and Christopher Curtin, who worked for CME’s
New York Mercantile Exchange, broke the law by revealing
nonpublic information to an outside commodity broker between
February 2008 and September 2010, the CFTC said in a lawsuit
filed today in federal court in Manhattan.
- Massachusetts S&P Probe Said to Extend Into Post-Crisis Ratings. Standard & Poor’s practices for
rating commercial property bonds since the 2008 credit crisis
are under scrutiny by Massachusetts authorities, three people
familiar with the matter said. The scope of the probe by state Attorney General Martha Coakley extends beyond the securities and period that are the
subject of a lawsuit brought by the Justice Department against
New York-based McGraw-Hill Cos. and its S&P unit.
Wall Street Journal:
- Italian Voters Face Chances of Chaotic Results. When Italians head to the polls on Sunday for one of the country's
most globally watched elections in decades, Silvana Giorgetto and her
five million fellow undecided voters will have an important voice. The 61-year-old retired schoolteacher from the southern town of
Avellino has cast a ballot in every Italian election since she came of
voting age at 18. This time, she is at a loss. "We're all a bit
torn—everyone has been such a disappointment."
- Payroll Tax Whacks Spending. Firms Adjust as Resumption of Levy, Expensive Gas, Stagnant
Wages Bite Consumers. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. on Thursday joined a parade of retailers, restaurants
and consumer-goods companies worried about the economic impact of the recently
restored federal payroll tax that has left Americans with less money to
spend. The world's largest retailer, Burger King Worldwide Inc., Kraft Foods Group
Inc. and others are lowering forecasts and adjusting sales and marketing
strategies, expecting consumers with smaller paychecks to dine out less and
trade down to less expensive purchases.
- Citi(C) Awards CEO $11.5 Million in Pay. Citigroup Inc. C -2.01% awarded Chief Executive Michael Corbat $11.5 million for 2012, a year in which he took over the third-largest U.S. bank by assets in a surprise October shake-up and set plans to cut 11,000 jobs. The figure puts Mr. Corbat's compensation on par with that of James Dimon, chairman and chief executive of J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -0.74% & Co. For 2012, net income was $7.54 billion at Citigroup and $21.3 billion at J.P. Morgan.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Copper Uncoils as Economic Worries Stalk Markets.
Copper prices are unraveling as global economic uncertainty returns to
haunt risk assets. After an optimistic start to the year, Europe's recovery hopes were dashed by
weak manufacturing data; there are fears the U.S. sequestration will
undermine growth, and China is showing signs of weakness. And the
minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy setting meeting showed
divisions about when the central bank may start to wind down its
bond-buying program.
- Is This the Start of China's Tightening Cycle? "The very fact that the PBOC (People's Bank of China) conducted the
draining operation is a hawkish signal. Clearly, the central bank is
trying to send a message that it will not tolerate too easy liquidity
conditions," Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist, at
Credit Agricole CIB said.
- Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) Earnings, Outlook Top Forecasts.
Hewlett-Packard reported fiscal first quarter earnings and revenue
Thursday that exceeded analyst predictions. Shares of the world's
leading PC maker popped more than 6 percent after the closing bell,
following the news.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
NY Times:
- The Rise of a Protest Movement Shows the Depth of Italy’s Disillusionment.
For months, he has been shouting his way from piazza to piazza, drawing
tens of thousands as he rails against tax collectors, corrupt
politicians and financial speculation. And when he arrives in Rome on
Friday for the final campaign rally of his “Tsunami tour,” Beppe Grillo,
the Internet-savvy comedian turned populist rabble-rouser, may lead
Italy’s third-most popular party.
Reuters:
- Bundesbank looks ahead to ECB "exit" as LTROs repaid. A bumper return of 3-year
loans to the ECB would boost the case for it exiting crisis
mode, a top Bundesbank official said ahead of Friday's news on
how much banks will hand back at a repayment window next week.
- GM(GM) pledges $7.3 bln investment in S.Korea unit. General Motors Co said it
would invest $7.3 billion in its South Korean unit over the next
five years -- an amount which will likely help relieve concerns
that the U.S. automaker was set to reduce its presence in the
country.
- Corzine avoids lifetime futures ban, for now -regulator. A key U.S futures-market regulator said on Thursday it will block Jon Corzine, the former chief executive of failed broker MF Global, from the industry unless he clears
an investigation into his fitness as a participant. However, the National Futures Association, which oversees
brokers and asset managers, rejected a proposed lifetime ban for
Corzine for now.
Financial Times:
- Brussels turns up pressure over Libor. The
commission can impose a maximum penalty equivalent to 10 per cent of a
company’s global turnover for each cartel it is found to be involved
with. A bank implicated in all three rate-fixing cases could, for
example, face fines of up to 30 per cent of total revenues.
Telegraph:
Economic Information Daily:
- China Ministries Consider Steps to Curb Overcapacity. China is considering measures to curb overcapacity and "blind expansion" by companies, including limits on energy consumption and differential power prices, citing a person familiar with the matter. The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Land and Resources and Ministry of Environment Protection will work together on the measures, according to the report.
Want China Times:
- Official austerity hits China's high-end catering business hard. High-end catering companies across China have seen a substantial drop
in business since the central government launched new rules to combat
extravagance, wastage and corruption in December, said Shen Danyang,
spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday at a press
conference. Restaurants and function centers in Beijing have seen a 35% decline
in revenue, those in Shanghai a 20% decline, and those in Ningbo in the
eastern province of Zhejiang, a 30% drop, according to a survey. Sales
of prestigious dishes including bird's nest and abalone also saw a 40%
fall during the Lunar New Year holiday, known locally as Spring
Festival. The sale of shark fin has fallen 70%. Luxury hotels have seen
a 45% drop in sales of their gift boxes and sales of premium spirits
including Moutai and Wuliangye have also been hit hard.
Evening Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:
- Rated (BRCM) Overweight, target $50.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.5 +1.25 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.0 +1.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Powell speaking, German IFO/CPI data, Eurozone GDP and the EU economic forecasts could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by healthcare and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +12.35%
- Total Put/Call 1.13 unch.
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 888.35 +.91%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 150.23 +5.63%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.19 +2.21%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 237.31 +.84%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 15.50 unch.
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.0 -1.0 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $156.20/Metric Tonne -1.70%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.70 -1.0 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.53 -2 bps
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -51 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Contraction Worsens: Economy. Euro-area services and manufacturing contracted at a faster pace than
economists forecast in February as the economy struggled to recover from the deepest recession in almost four years. A
composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both
industries in the 17-nation currency bloc decreased to 47.3 from 48.6 in
January, London-based Markit Economics said today. Economists had forecast a reading of 49,
according to the median of 22 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The data
reinforce indications that the euro-area economy continued to contract
in early 2013 after the recession worsened in the fourth quarter. The
manufacturing gauge slipped to 47.8 from 47.9. In Germany, Europe’s
biggest economy, the services measure fell to 54.1 in February from 55.7
last month, the sharpest decline since August. France’s services gauge
fell to 42.7 this month from 43.6 in January, while its
manufacturing index increased to 43.6 from 42.9, today’s data showed.
- European Stocks Decline Most in Two Weeks on Fed, Economy.
European (SXXP) stocks declined the most in more than two weeks as a
measure of services and manufacturing output contracted, while concern
mounted that the Federal Reserve will scale back its asset-purchase
program. All 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated with a gauge of carmakers dropping 2.5 percent.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, posted its
largest two-day drop in more than nine months. Safran SA slid the most
since August after saying it may make an offer for Avio SpA’s
space-propulsion business. The Stoxx 600 sank 1.5 percent to 284.86 at the close of trading in London, its biggest tumble since Feb. 4.
- Euro Weakens Below $1.32 First Time in Six Weeks as Output Drops. The
euro declined below $1.32 for the first time in six weeks as an
industry report showed services and manufacturing in the region shrank
at a faster pace
in February than economists forecast.
- China Swaps Touch Two-Week High on Record PBOC Fund Withdrawals. China’s
one-year interest-rate swaps touched a two-week high on speculation the
central bank will tighten monetary policy to temper gains in home
prices. Premier Wen Jiabao called on local authorities to
“decisively” curb real estate speculation and take steps to
rein in the property market after data showed prices surged the
most in two years last month. The People’s Bank of China drained
910 billion yuan ($146 billion) from the financial system this
week, the biggest withdrawal since Bloomberg started compiling
the data in 2008. “It shows determination of the central bank to tighten
liquidity conditions as they need to guard against nascent
inflation and asset-price gains, especially in real estate,”
said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Credit Agricole CIB strategist in Hong
Kong.
- Emerging Stocks Erase Gains for 2013 Year as Earnings Disappoint. Emerging-market
stocks erased gains for the year, underperforming developed-nation
equities as earnings at companies from Hyundai Motor Co. (005380) to
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) trailed analysts’ forecasts. The MSCI
Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) fell 1.3 percent to 1,055.02 as of 4:45
p.m. in Hong Kong, wiping out this year’s advance. The gauge has fallen
2.6 percent from a 17-month high on Jan. 3 as 62 percent of the
companies included reported quarterly profit that missed estimates,
compared with 34 percent in the MSCI World Index of developed nations.
- Emerging Stocks Face Significant Correction, JPMorgan Says. Emerging-market stocks may enter a “significant
correction” after they trailed developed-nation shares this year,
according to JPMorgan & Chase Co. “Fundamentals and technicals
are weakening,” Adrian Mowat, the chief Asia and emerging-market
strategist at JPMorgan, wrote in a report dated yesterday. He
recommended options that protect against
stock losses and advised selling equities that are most sensitive to
market swings.
- Insider Sales Reach 2-Year High as S&P 500 Nears Record. Corporate executives are taking
advantage of near-record U.S. stock prices by selling shares in
their companies at the fastest pace in two years. There were about 12
stock-sale announcements over the past three months for every purchase
by insiders at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) companies, the
highest ratio since January 2011, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg and Pavilion Global
Markets. Whenever the ratio exceeded 11 in the past, the
benchmark index declined 5.9 percent on average in the next six
months, according to Pavilion, a Montreal-based trading firm.
- Hedge Funds Boost Stock Bets to ’07 High, Goldman Says. Hedge funds are more bullish on equities than they have been in six years
and American International Group Inc. (AIG) replaced Apple (AAPL) Inc.
as the top-held stock, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Net long
exposure to stocks in hedge funds climbed to 52 percent in the fourth
quarter, matching the 10-year high reached in the first quarter of 2007, a team led by Goldman Sachs’ Amanda Sneider and David Kostin said in a report yesterday.
- Iron-Ore Swaps Drop as China Property Curbs Seen Cutting Demand. Iron-ore swaps dropped the most in
almost six weeks alongside declines in steel futures and
equities on speculation China’s call for real-estate curbs would
curb demand for the commodity used in construction materials. The March contract tumbled 2.6 percent to $148.50 a dry
metric ton as of 8:26 a.m. in London, according to GFI Group
Inc. It headed for the biggest decline since Jan. 11, based on
data from SGX AsiaClear, the largest clearer of the derivatives
used to hedge prices and bet on Chinese growth.
- Wheat Leads Slump as Nickel to Crude Fall: Commodities at Close. Copper, tin and nickel fell to the lowest this year on
signs of a deepening slump in Europe and concern that the
Federal Reserve will slow the pace of economic stimulus in the
U.S. Copper futures for May delivery slumped 1.7 percent to
$3.5625 a pound at 10:28 a.m. on the Comex in New York after
touching $3.5585, the lowest since Dec. 24.
- Index of U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rose in January. The index of U.S. leading indicators rose for a second month in
January, showing the world’s largest economy is on track to sustain the
expansion in the first half of this year. The Conference Board’s
gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.2
percent from a 0.5 percent rise in December, the New York-based group
said today. The gain matched the increase projected by economists,
according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
- Previously Owned U.S. Home Sales Climb to 4.92 Million.
Purchases of existing houses rose 0.4 percent to a 4.92 million annual
rate, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in
Washington.
- Consumer Bureau Said to Warn Banks of Auto Lending Suits. The U.S. Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau has told at least four banks that it may sue
them over vehicle loans and interest-rate markups by auto
dealers that appear discriminatory, according to three people
briefed on the matter. The banks received letters from the CFPB last week giving
them 15 days to provide an explanation of the practice, said the
people, who asked not to be identified because the plans aren’t
public. The letters indicate the bureau believes the banks may
have violated the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, a 1974 law that
bars discrimination in lending.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch:
- Fed's Bullard: Current policy looks very easy. Federal Reserve policy looks "very easy" and is below one of the Fed
favorite guideposts for policy, said James Bullard, the president of the
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank on Thursday. In a speech at the New York
University School of Business, Bullard said that one estimate of policy
puts the Fed's short-term rate at negative 5%, considerably more
negative than the Taylor rule that the central bank often used before
the crisis to gauge policy. The Taylor rule and St. Louis Fed forecasts
suggest that rates should increase above zero in August, Bullard said.
But some analysts suggest that the Fed would want to keep rates at zero
for an "extra time" to make up for having rates at zero since 2008.
Bullard said Fed policy is consistent with the extra time approach.
Bullard repeated that he backed tapering asset purchases to send signals
to the market about the economy's progress.
- Iran Lifts Output, Upgrades Atomic Technology Before Meeting. Iran rolled out new atomic
technology and boosted its output of enriched uranium that world
powers are concerned may eventually be used for nuclear weapons,
according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran’s total production of medium-enriched uranium rose to
280 kilograms (617 pounds) from 232.8 kilograms reported in
November, the IAEA said today in a 12-page restricted report.
Iran has converted or is in the process of converting 103
kilograms, or 37 percent of the stockpile, into reactor fuel,
which Iran has declared is for producing medical isotopes.
CNBC:
- Italy's Election: Tycoon, Comedian or Professor.
- Strike Three! The American Consumer Is Out. Faced with delayed tax refunds, an increased paycheck tax bite and
higher gas prices, U.S. consumers are proceeding cautiously and scaling
back, a trend that has already impacted one large retailer's bottom
line. Nearly three-quarters of those polled by the National Retail
Federation said their spending plans are taking a hit due to the
expiration of a two-percent cut in payroll taxes that made consumers do a
double-take on their paychecks at the start of the year. Lower-income
consumers are already feeling the pinch, analysts said.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
Reuters:
- Italy election stalemate worst option for markets. An inconclusive result in Italy's
elections this weekend could prompt an even bigger sell-off in
some markets than the return to power of scandal-mired Silvio
Berlusconi, who led the country to the financial precipice in
2011.
- Moody's outlook for US local governments remains negative. Moody's Investors Service is
keeping its outlook negative for U.S. local governments in 2013,
as cities and counties must continue to contend with tight
revenues, high demand for spending, and an "uneven economic
recovery," the rating agency said on Thursday.
Telegraph:
BBC:
- Libor setting 'still not clean' despite scandal. The way that the key Libor interest
rate is set in the UK is still not clean and free of fraud, according to a top
US regulator. "We have a lot more work to do," Gary Gensler, chairman of the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission, told the BBC in London. He suggested that the rate was often "completely made up".
Naftemporiki:
- Greek Revenue Misses Target So Far This Month. State revenue in
first 15 days of month seen at EU1.174b vs. EU1.365b target, citing
preliminary finance ministry data.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Alt Energy -3.55% 2) Oil Service -2.52% 3) Networking -2.13%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- PAY, SFY, TVL, TPLM, BOFI, IRE, TI, DISH, PBR, GFI, OMX, FBR, CBD, FOR, VAC, MX, TAL, PATK, EBIX, LBY, TSLA, CG, KORS, PPO, KMP, AZZ, NSR, GNRC, SWKS, TRW, DORM, BRC, BOFI, AMWD, HSNI, HAIN, DDD, PPO, LL, SPWR, WLT, RNF, WGO, SPPI, VCI, URI, NCT, RP, MCRS, RES, HEES, CLH, CQP, PCG, NRP, CACI, GPOR and SAFM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) MTG 2) OIH 3) XLV 4) JCP 5) GM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) CLF 2) RIG 3) SKYW 4) POT 5) R
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +2.98% 2) Tobacco +.69% 3) Papers +.29%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SWY, JCP, PAAS, JACK, AUY, BRY, GDP, PEGA, RPRX, AWAY, SM and CROX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) NWS 2) PAY 3) WMB 4) ODP 5) UUP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) KO 2) WLP 3) AOL 4) HRL 5) SWY
Charts: