Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising energy prices, more Mideast unrest, technical selling, rising long-term rates, debt-ceiling worries and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,709.91 +1.3%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,709.91 +1.3%

• DJIA 15,451.09 +.49%

• NASDAQ 3,774.72 +1.41%

• Russell 2000 1,072.83 +1.79%

• S&P 500 High Beta 27.37 +.66%

• Wilshire 5000 17,956.9 +1.34%

• Russell 1000 Growth 794.43 +1.65%

• Russell 1000 Value 863.70 +1.0%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,039.96 +.92%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,330.45 +1.80%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 829.63 +1.44%

• Transports 6,692.26 +2.59%

• Utilities 485.33 +1.77%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 103.37 +.84%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.0 +2.68%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,124.59 +.43%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 933.63 +.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 191,323 +1.31%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 955 +661

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.24 -13.09%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 326,831 -2.39%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,926,402 +1.30%

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +40.0%

• OEX Put/Call .78 -25.71%

• ISE Sentiment 85.0 -19.81%

• NYSE Arms 1.59 +67.36%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.12 -7.34%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.23 +2.41%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.95 -2.51%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.83 -5.30%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,653.20 +2.49%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.658 Trillion -.05%

• AAII % Bulls 45.1 -.9%

• AAII % Bears 29.7 +20.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 287.44 -1.23%

• Crude Oil 104.75 -3.55%

• Reformulated Gasoline 268.42 -2.88%

• Natural Gas 3.69 +.30%

• Heating Oil 300.42 -3.62%

• Gold 1,332.60 +.48%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 192.02 +2.80%

• Copper 332.05 +2.95%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 342.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.80 USD/Ton -2.0%

• Lumber 354.20 +2.88%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,417.64 -1.52%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.5% +40 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0888 -12.6%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 118.72 +.19%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.40 -5.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.10 -1.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 40.0% chance of no change, 60.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 10/30

• US Dollar Index 80.43 -1.34%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.15 +1.74%

• Yield Curve 240.0 -5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.73% -15 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.679 Trillion +1.7%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.38 +1.23%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 172.0 -2.71%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 86.91 -3.43%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 98.19 -14.83%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 205.16 -7.38%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 117.0 -8.59%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 650.0 -.41%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 365.0 -7 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24% +13 basis points

• TED Spread 24.0 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 +2.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.95 +1.75%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 140.36 +1.38%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 262.38 -14.22%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 111.50 -8.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.556 Trillion -.81%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,046.70 +1.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 314,800 -6,450

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.50% -7 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 428.20 +11.22%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.40 +2.7 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.0% -60 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.49/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,904 +16.38%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,104.96 -1.82%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 265,873 +16.15%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.0%

Leading Sectors

• Alt Energy +3.8%

• Construction +3.3%

• Airlines +3.1%

• Homebuilders +3.0%

• Gaming +2.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants +.1% 

• Papers unch.

• Banks -.1%

• Disk Drives -1.1%

• HMOs -3.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)

• MCBI, ENTA, BZ, RPRX, KYTH, ORB, SWY, RAIL, TSRO, HTH, ADBE, BMRN, SHEN, PKG, SSYS, A, SBRA, HUN, WPP, MRIN, SN, TCBK and PETX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• MTZ, KS, RKT, THI, SGMO, CTRX, PIR, CVT, PPO, BERY and OUTR

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Debt Ceiling Worries, Profit Taking, Technical Selling, Metals & Mining/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: About Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.23 +.53%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.01 -.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.84 +1.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.19 +1.94%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -32.06%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +34.21%

• NYSE Arms 1.60 +20.37% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.60 +13.99% (new series)

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 140.36 +12.14%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 86.91 -1.23%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.52 -3.72%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.50 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 24.0 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% +1 basis point

• Yield Curve 240.0 -2 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.80/Metric Tonne n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.40 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.10 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +2 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -12 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.65%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.83% 2) Oil Tankers -3.01% 3) Homebuilders -2.70%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• NGD, CFNL, IBN, TI, SHOR, AREX, MNST, DDD, ZLC, IMMR, AIZ, CAB, IPG, VCI, NMM, AGI, NGL, PODD, QCOR, SA, DRI, COL, KEX, SEE, TWI, PSMI, MNST, Z, SWI, TGI, SOHU, LGF, NEE, FNV, FDO, IBN, P, LCI and NGVC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TMUS 2) SPLS 3) MBI 4) DRI 5) JNK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FB 2) Z 3) LNKD 4) MSFT 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.25%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Drugs +.24% 2) Internet +.19% 3) Tobacco +.14%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NPSP, SSTK, TXTR, JKS, SRPT, ACRX, TASR, GOGO and QLIK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TMUS 2) FDO 3) DG 4) CAG 5) AKS
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CI 2) LMT 3) DO 4) SFM 5) ANGI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume