Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.35%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -2.05% 2) Biotech -1.83% 3) I-Banks -1.70%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• EQIX, HWAY, BFR, PRU, GTIV, MCP, BK, CVX, WSR, PRTA, CEVA, ANGI, TXI, SFUN, HAWK, ASH, TASR, LLY, ZLC, CYD, CLDX, NOAH, MAA, MGAM, CLNE, TSLA, DGI, HLF, CCG, HCP and RWT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LAMR 2) MDY 3) XLB 4) GLW 5) UNP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) APC 3) ANGI 4) C 5) GM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.12%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +.85% 2) Airlines -.11%% 3) HMOs -.12%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ICGE, CAMP, VVUS, CHU, OMER, PVH, THC, AWAY, FIVE, SLCA, CREE, MLNX, CSIQ, SRPT, UNXL, NPSP, KKD and AEGR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LVLT 2) XOMA 3) ANGI 4) SLCA 5) GALE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) P 2) ADSK 3) JLL 4) AAPL 5) LLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Boehner Says Obama Refused Budget Negotiations in Meeting. House Speaker John Boehner said President Barack Obama refused to negotiate in a meeting with top congressional leaders about the government shutdown, signaling a lack of progress on resolving the fiscal impasse. As he exited a meeting today at the White House, Boehner said Obama must recognize that the U.S. has a divided government. “The American people expect their leaders to come together and try to find ways to resolve their differences,” said Boehner, an Ohio Republican. 

• Goldman to Nomura Warn on Debt to Reserves Ratio: India Credit. Reserve Bank of India data showed the highest ratio of short-term external debt to currency reserves in more than a decade, raising alarm bells at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc. The $97 billion maturing in less than a year amounted to 34.3 percent of reserves as of June 30, the highest since at least March 2001, RBI figures released Sept. 30 show. The ratio was 146.5 percent during a balance-of-payments crisis in March 1991, according to the report’s partial data for the 1990s. Including longer-term debt, repayments due by June 2014 total $170 billion, or 60 percent of reserves. Indonesia’s comparable ratio is 55.8 percent. Asia’s third-largest economy faces significant risk as banks and companies seek to refinance global borrowings, even as the government acts to trim the current-account deficit, Goldman wrote in a Sept. 30 research note. Nomura said the slowest economic growth in a decade and a budget deadlock in the U.S. will damp inflows, further straining India’s finances.

• Tepco Finds New Tank Leak at Fukushima Dai-Ichi Atomic Station. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501) found a fresh leak at a storage tank holding contaminated water at the Fukushima station about six weeks after an earlier outflow prompted the government to intervene in the plant’s cleanup. Beta radiation levels of 200,000 becquerels per liter were found near the leak that was confirmed at 9:55 p.m. yesterday, the utility known as Tepco said in a statement early this morning. Beta radiation includes strontium-90, which safety rules require to be kept under 30 becquerels at atomic plants. Tepco didn’t know when the leak started or how much water has been discharged, Yusuke Kunikage, a spokesman, said in an interview before a press conference planned for 10 a.m. The company can’t rule out the possibility that some of the water flowed to the sea, according to the statement.

• Evidence Grows That North Korea Has Restarted Reactor. North Korea’s 5-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon is releasing hot water, a sign operations have resumed at the facility capable of producing enough plutonium to make one nuclear bomb a year, according to a U.S. research group. Satellite imagery taken Sept. 19 shows water being released into the Kuryong River from the reactor facility at North Korea’s main nuclear complex, according to the 38 North website, which is run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “This release of hot water indicates that the reactor is in operation and the turbine powered electrical generators are producing power,” said Nick Hansen, who wrote the report. 

• IPad Prices Jumping 12% on Rupiah Show Inflation Pressure. The rupiah’s slump is fueling a surge in Indonesia’s costs of imported goods from iPads to soybeans, spurring Southeast Asia’s fastest inflation and increasing growth risks ahead of elections next year.

• Asia Stocks Rise on China Services; Investors Watch U.S. Asian stocks rose, led by material and energy shares, after a gauge of China’s services industries jumped and as investors watched for progress on ending a budget impasse that has shut down the U.S. government. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer, added 3.2 percent as material shares gained the most among the 10 industry groups on the benchmark regional index. PetroChina Co. climbed 1.6 percent in Hong Kong. Leighton Holdings Ltd., an Australian developer, slumped 9.3 percent after saying it’s unaware of any new allegations or ethics breaches in a statement responding to newspaper reports. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent to 139.12 as of 11:46 a.m. in Tokyo, with nine of the 10 industry groups rising. 

• Rubber Gains From 7-Week Low as China Data Boosts Demand Outlook. Rubber climbed, snapping a four-day losing streak, as data showed improvement in China’s economy, boosting demand from the largest consumer. The contract for March delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange gained as much as 1.9 percent to 261.4 yen a kilogram ($2,689 a metric ton), rebounding from the lowest settlement since Aug. 8. Futures traded at 260.3 yen at 10:56 a.m., paring losses to 14 percent this year for a most-active contract.

• Brazil Rating Outlook Lowered to Stable From Positive by Moody’s. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on Brazil’s sovereign rating to stable from positive, citing deteriorating debt and investment ratios and evidence the economy is going through a low-growth period. “Even though there are signs that the Brazilian economy may be starting to recover, Moody’s view is that, if and when the upturn materializes, it is unlikely that it will be strong enough to restore a positive trend in Brazil credit metrics,” Moody’s said in a statement dated Oct. 2. Moody’s affirmed Brazil’s Baa2 government bond rating. Latin America’s biggest economy expanded less than forecast by analysts in five of the past six quarters and the central bank trimmed its 2013 growth outlook to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent this week. President Dilma Rousseff has begun rolling back some incentives amid flagging government revenue.

• Homebuilder Group Lowers Starts Forecast After Rate Jump. The National Association of Home Builders lowered its forecast for U.S. single-family home starts this year and next as higher interest rates slow the pace of growth in the housing market. Single-family home starts are expected to be 629,000 this year, lower than an April estimate of 672,000, the Washington-based group said in a report today. In 2014, the total is expected to be 826,000, compared with the prior forecast of 858,000. Work began on about 537,000 houses in 2012.

Wall Street Journal:

• No Movement in Shutdown Standoff. Obama, Congressional Leaders Meet, But Neither Side Backs Off Budget Stance. President Barack Obama and congressional leaders met Wednesday for the first time since the federal government shut down, emerging more than an hour later with no evidence of progress toward resolving their impasse over health care and government spending. With hundreds of thousands of federal workers on furlough for a second day, congressional officials of both parties left the White House meeting pessimistic about prospects for a speedy end to the deadlock. They made clear that neither side had made concessions.

• Cheaper Advice: Angie’s List(ANGI) Cuts Prices. Consumer-review site Angie’s List Inc. has slashed membership prices by roughly 75% in several key markets, in a bid to attract new members.

• Ackman Trims Risk on Herbalife(HLF) Bet. 

• Casey Mulligan: How ObamaCare Wrecks the Work Ethic. The health-care law, starting Jan. 1, will begin driving up marginal tax rates—well above 50% for many. A new wave of redistribution will arrive in America on Jan. 1, primarily thanks to the Affordable Care Act. The president's health-insurance plan forces those who hire, work and produce to pay full price for health care, while creating generous discounts for practically everyone else.

Fox News:

• ObamaCare reg on digital patient records raises security concerns. A provision in ObamaCare requiring medical providers to switch from paper patient charts to electronic records is intended to reduce costs and improve care. But privacy advocates fear the transition is too fast for security measures to keep pace. "The thing I worry about is not that we are doing it, but that we're doing it without the right safeguards," said Lee Tien, a senior staff attorney with the Electronic Frontier Foundation. "We have been giving (medical providers) incentives to move into the electronic-health-records era. But we haven't been giving them enough guidance on how they're supposed to do it."

CNBC:

• Italy prosecutors seek JPMorgan indictment:Report. Siena prosecutors requested that JPMorgan Chase & Co stand trial for obstructing regulators as part of a wider probe into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA's purchase of Banca Antonveneta SpA, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter.

• Tesla(TSLA) Model S catches fire—in the wrong way. Video of a Tesla Model S on fire in Washington state is raising questions about what caused the electric car to go up in flames. The driver was able to get out of the car before the fire spread to engulf much of the front-end.

Zero Hedge:

• Obama "Prepared To Negotiate" (After Government Reopens), Says This Time "Wall Street Should Be Concerned".

• Treasury Warns Asset Manager "Herding" Threatens US Financial System.

• House Republicans Plan To Link Debt-Limit And Shutdown Into One Fiscal Fight.

• Obama Issues Statement, "Not Going To Negotiate" After All.

• Cognitive Dissonance Chart Of The Day (Year). (graph)

Washington Post: 

• CIA ramping up covert training program for moderate Syrian rebels. The CIA is expanding a clandestine effort to train opposition fighters in Syria amid concern that moderate, U.S.-backed militias are rapidly losing ground in the country’s civil war, U.S. officials said. But the CIA program is so minuscule that it is expected to produce only a few hundred trained fighters each month even after it is enlarged, a level that officials said will do little to bolster rebel forces that are being eclipsed by radical Islamists in the fight against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

McClatchy:

• Al Qaida fighters resume attack on U.S.-backed rebels in northern Syria. Fighters loyal to al Qaida have opened up a new offensive against a U.S.-backed rebel group that once escorted U.S. Sen. John McCain into northern Syria, according to Internet postings and news accounts.
  
  
  Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/10/02/204003/al-qaida-fighters-resume-attack.html#storylink=cpy
  
  Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/10/02/204003/al-qaida-fighters-resume-attack.html#storylink=cpy

South China Morning Post:

• People want Hong Kong's property curbs to continue, poll finds. Lawmakers' calls to drop taxes aimed at fighting speculation fail to win public support, poll finds. Most people believe three taxes introduced to cool the property market should stay in place or be strengthened, a survey found, despite calls from lawmakers to make the measures "less spicy".

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 119.0 +.25 basis point. 

• FTSE-100 futures +.34%.

• S&P 500 futures -.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (STZ)/.88

• (ISCA)/-.01

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 315K versus 305K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2805K versus 2823K prior.

 10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for Sept. is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus 58.6 in August.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, China HSBC Services PMI, Eurozone retail sales data, Eurozone Services PMI data, Challenger Job Cuts report for Sept., RBC Consumer Outlook for Oct., weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Debt Ceiling/Shutdown Concerns, Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Transport/Defense Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.69 +7.40%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.92  -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 -1.29%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.67 +4.64%

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +19.64%

• Total Put/Call .76 -10.59%

• NYSE Arms .67 -4.09% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.66 +.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 139.61 +.27%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 81.50 -.61%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 293.44 +2.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 unch.

• TED Spread 23.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 230.0 -1 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.40/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.70 -1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.10 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +1 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +80 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Euro Strengthens as Draghi Refrains From New Measures; Yen Rises. The euro strengthened the most in two weeks against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi refrained from signaling that any new measures were needed to boost the region’s recovery. Europe’s single currency advanced versus all except two of its 16 major counterparts after Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta won a confidence vote in parliament, avoiding the need for another election. The yen rose for a second day against the dollar as U.S. lawmakers made no progress toward resolving a partial government shutdown and an industry report showed American companies added fewer workers than economists forecast. Australia’s dollar fell as the nation reported a trade deficit. The euro advanced 0.5 percent to $1.3594 at 11:22 a.m. in New York, reaching the biggest one-day gain since Sept. 18. The single currency was 0.2 percent weaker at 132.34 yen after falling as much as 0.9 percent. The yen strengthened 0.7 percent to 97.33 per dollar. 

• Italy’s Letta Wins Confidence Vote as Berlusconi Backs Down. Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta won a confidence vote in the Senate today after Silvio Berlusconi backtracked on a pledge to bring down the five-month old government as his party showed signs of deserting him. Letta was supported by 235 senators while 70 opposed him during a vote today in Rome. Just hours before, former Premier Berlusconi announced that he would support the government, reversing an earlier pledge to oppose Letta in the vote.

• European Stocks Drop as Hochtief Plunges Following Report. European stocks declined the most in more than a month as the shutdown of the U.S. federal government entered its second day. Hochtief AG slumped 7.9 percent after the Sydney Morning Herald reported allegations of corruption at the company’s Australian business. KappAhl AB dropped 9.8 percent after the clothing retailer proposed paying no dividend this financial year. Portugal Telecom SGPS SA jumped the most in almost four months after agreeing to merge with Brazil’s Oi SA to form a network operator with 100 million subscribers. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.7 percent to 310.79 at the close in London, its biggest slide since Aug. 30.

• WTI Crude Rises on Expected Gulf Pipeline Commissioning. West Texas Intermediate crude rose after TransCanada Corp. (TRP) said it expects to complete work on the southern portion of its Keystone pipeline expansion by the end of October. The spread between WTI and Brent oil, the European benchmark, narrowed on speculation that the link will help reduce stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI contract. The 700,000-barrel-a-day pipeline will run to the Texas Gulf Coast from Cushing. Futures extended gains after a government report showed that stockpiles at the hub fell to the lowest level since February 2012.

• Monsanto(MON) Buying Climate Corp. to Add Big Data for Farmers. Monsanto Co. (MON), the world’s largest seed company, agreed to buy The Climate Corp. for about $930 million to provide farmers with weather data and farm modeling to help them boost yields and manage risk.

Wall Street Journal:

• Budget Battle: Streaming Coverage.

• U.S. Mortgage Application Volume Slips 0.4% in Latest Week -- MBA. The number of mortgage applications filed slipped 0.4% in the week ended Sept. 27 from the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis while interest rates fell to their lowest level since June, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. On an unadjusted basis, MBA reported the market composite index decreased 1%. The refinance index climbed 3%, while the seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 6%.

• Foreign Firms Tap U.S. Gas Bonanza. The U.S. boom in natural-gas production is luring investment from foreign manufacturers eager to tap a cheap, abundant supply of fuel and feedstocks.

Fox News: 

• Make It Hurt? Republicans accuse administration of inflicting added budget pain. Is the Obama administration employing a make-it-hurt strategy to gain political leverage in the budget battle on Capitol Hill? Republicans are making that charge as the stalemate drags on, and point to the Pentagon furlough of 400,000 civilian staffers -- even though Congress passed and the president signed a bill to supposedly keep them on the job. The partial government suspension, which started Monday after lawmakers failed to strike a budget deal, is expected to result in the furlough of roughly 800,000 total government workers. Many federal agencies have significantly curtailed their operations; national parks and monuments are closed. But Republicans are accusing the Obama administration of making the situation worse than it has to be. They complained overnight that the Pentagon furloughed 400,000 of its civilian staffers. "This is no time to use national security or our national security workforce as a political pawn," Rep. Buck McKeon, R-Calif., wrote in a letter to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.

• Firefighters alarmed by latest rescue risk: solar panels.

CNBC:

• Don't look for tapering anytime soon, says Fed's Rosengren.

• The phrase that betrays: 'Government shutdown'.

Zero Hedge:

• Only Payroll Indicator In Shutdown Week Disappoints As ADP Misses, Follows Large Downward Revisions. (graph)

• Best And Worst Performing Assets In September And Q3. (graph)

• Jamie And Lloyd Visit Obama.

• Key Pillar Of Housing "Recovery" Cracks As Private Equity Becomes Marginal Seller.

Business Insider: 

• Alleged Founder Of Silk Road — The Site Where You Can Buy Illegal Drugs — Arrested And Millions In Bitcoins Seized.

USA Today: 

• John Boehner: Obama owns this shutdown now. Washington Democrats have slammed the door on reopening the government. The president isn't telling the whole story when it comes to the government shutdown. The fact is that Washington Democrats have slammed the door on reopening the government by refusing to engage in bipartisan talks. And, as stories across the country highlight the devastating impact of Obamacare on families and small businesses, they continue to reject our calls for fairness for all Americans.

Reuters: 

• Investors turn their backs on "robot" hedge funds. Investors in the $330 billion computer-driven hedge fund sector are pulling out money for the first time since 2008, data showed on Wednesday, signalling the possible start of a bigger exit from the industry. These so-called CTAs (commodity trading advisors), which employ mathematicians and physicists to build programmes betting on market trends, have been in demand since they racked up large profits during the credit crisis.

• Swap exchanges launch in threat to Wall Street profits. More than a dozen new U.S. exchanges opened their doors for clients on Wednesday, marking the start of regulated trading of derivatives in a threat to one of Wall Street's most lucrative businesses.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.22%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers -1.31% 2) Defense -1.24% 3) I-Banks -1.13%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PKT, EA, EQIX, COG, XCO, MET, AA, KEP, SCCO, TGP, TISI, MEMP, RECN, FLTX, EME, IMPV, ICPT, CLDX, BAX, VMI, HOS, MON, CREE, GHL, FNGN, IMAX, CSTM, EV and WHR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DISH 2) EWY 3) KSS 4) BEN 5) XLV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AXP 2) ORCL 3) CREE 4) CME 5) AIG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume