Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,836.25 +.35%*



 
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,836.25 +.35%

• DJIA 16,103.30 +.47%

• NASDAQ 4,263.41 +.54%

• Russell 2000 1,164.63 +1.47%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.77 +1.15%

• Wilshire 5000 19,384.30 +.57%

• Russell 1000 Growth 867.85 +.40%

• Russell 1000 Value 919.25 +.56%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 426.31 -.09%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,463.20 +.35%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 924.06 +.35%

• Transports 7,308.60 +.37%

• Utilities 523.47%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 111.55 +.14%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.48 +1.22%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,171.57 +.31%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 962.58 +.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 206,615 +.73%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 365 -11

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 14.29 -51.41%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 416,441+8.92%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,650,294 +.24%

• Total Put/Call .69 -15.85%

• OEX Put/Call 1.27 +81.43%

• ISE Sentiment 105.0 +9.38%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +47.78%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.68 +3.82%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.61 -.04%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.62 -2.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.82 +1.97%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,884.82 +.75%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.664 Trillion -1.81%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $4.159 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 42.2 +5.2%
• AAII % Bears 22.8 -16.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 301.58 +3.08%

• Crude Oil 102.20 +1.83%

• Reformulated Gasoline 283.33 +2.13%

• Natural Gas 6.13 +17.12%

• Heating Oil 309.92 +1.94%

• Gold 1,323.60 +1.61%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 192.21 +.78%

• Copper 329.10 +1.25%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 374.33 USD/Ton -5.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.40 USD/Ton -.65%

• Lumber 363.60 -.17%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,432.35 +3.47%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.5% -80 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3088 +6.54%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.54 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.7 -27.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.60 -6.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 30.0% chance of no change, 70.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19

• US Dollar Index 80.24 +.11%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.87 +1.0%

• Yield Curve 241.0 -2 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.73% -1 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.106 Trillion +.71%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.55 -5.94%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 143.0 -5.86%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 53.0 -1.85%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 104.66 -.48%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 244.29 -9.52%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 94.50 +1.07%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.50 +.75%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 355.55 +.31%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% -3 basis points

• TED Spread 20.0 -2.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.48 +.38%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 90.25 +2.22%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 318.32 -3.32%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 90.0 -10.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.716 Trillion -2.85%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,028.10 +3.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 338,500 +1,700

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.33% +5 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 380.90 -4.1%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -30.6 +.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.39/gallon +.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,164 +5.24%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,1133.98 -3.13%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -7.67%

• Rail Freight Carloads 236,625 -3.86%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +4.5%

• Airlines +3.7%

• Biotech +3.5%

• Gold & Silver +3.3%

• HMOs +3.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Hospitals -.1% 

• Restaurants -.1%

• Internet -.3%

• Road & Rail -.3%

• Banks -1.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)

• ZLC, FRX, ANIP, ELLI, LOGM, CRAY, ZBRA, UCTT, PRAA, PTCT, CHDX, ACT, RATE, VHC, ACO, RPTP, IM, COLM, CHE, URS, SWY, RTRX, JCOM, BGS and WIRE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (17)

• LZB, STMP, AMWD, DRC, OCR, BCOR, WAC, SN, EIG, GNC, PBPB, TRLA, HAWK, SM, WTW, GDP and CONN

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.67 -.81%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.97 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.82 -.68%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.01 -2.38%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -8.13%

• Total Put/Call .67 -22.09%

• NYSE Arms 1.35 +115.16% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +.03%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.25 -1.89%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 53.0 unch.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 104.36 -.68%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 318.82 -2.87%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 355.55 -.54%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 20.0 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 242.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $122.40/Metric Tonne -.41%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.70 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.60 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -26 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine’s Warring Factions Sign Pact to End Deadly Crisis. Ukrainian opposition leaders joined President Viktor Yanukovych in signing a peace accord to halt a deadly three-month political crisis. The pact, brokered in all-night talks in Kiev with three European Union foreign ministers, envisages early presidential elections by December and a national unity government within 10 days. Lawmakers backed a return to the 2004 constitution, a step that would curb Yanukovych’s powers in favor of parliament, and voted to free jailed ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

• Ruble Wilts as Kiev Burns With Sochi Overshadowed. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the deadly clashes in neighboring Ukraine couldn’t have come at a worse time. The violence that threatens to topple a government propped up by his financial aid is taking investors’ attention away from the Olympic games in Sochi that he sought to use as a showcase for how far Russia has come since its 1998 default. The ruble sank 1.3 percent in the week, the third-worst rout in emerging markets, while demand for local bonds dried up, pushing benchmark yields to a record high and prompting the government to cancel its third debt auction in four weeks.

• China’s Stocks Fall Most in Six Weeks as Yuan Weakens on Economy. China’s stocks fell the most in six weeks, while the yuan headed for its biggest weekly slide since 2011 as a manufacturing slowdown fueled concerns the economic expansion is weakening. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (600028) slid 3.1 percent after Jefferies Group LLC downgraded the shares and said yesterday’s rally was unjustified. PetroChina, the largest oil producer, retreated 3.9 percent. Sany Heavy Industry Co., the biggest machinery maker, tumbled 2.1 percent. Citic Securities Co. (600030) led declines for brokerages after the Standard reported Sinolink Securities Co. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. cut commission fees for their online stock-trading service. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 1.2 percent to 2,113.69 at the close, sending the measure to a loss of 0.1 percent for the week after a preliminary manufacturing index by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to a seven-month low.

• U.K. Retail Sales Decline Most Since April 2012 on Clothing. U.K. retail sales fell more than economists forecast in January with the biggest drop in almost two years, led by lower demand at food and clothing stores. Sales including fuel plunged 1.5 percent from December, when they surged 2.5 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The decline was the biggest since April 2012 and exceeded the 1 percent median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. 

• Europe Stocks Rise as Stoxx 600 Extends Third Weekly Gain. European stocks climbed, extending a third consecutive weekly gain, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose to its highest level in six years. Vodafone (VOD) Group Plc rose 3 percent as UBS AG said the mobile-phone operator may attract potential bidders after the sale of its stake in Verizon Wireless. Valeo SA jumped 13 percent after the French auto-parts maker posted six-month earnings that beat analyst estimates. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc added 1.2 percent as the Financial Times said that the lender will exit its riskier investment-banking businesses. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4 percent to 336.09 at the close of trading, for a 0.8 percent weekly gain. 

• WTI Crude Slips With Brent to Pare Sixth Weekly Advance. WTI for April delivery fell 45 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $102.30 a barrel at 1:20 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 22 percent below the 100-day average. Crude is up 2 percent this week and 10 percent in the past six weeks.

• Fed Failed to See Lehman’s Fallout for Economy, Transcripts Show. The day after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history in 2008, Federal Reserve officials remained unsure whether the financial crisis would do lasting damage to the U.S. economy. “I don’t think we’ve seen a significant change in the basic outlook,” Dave Stockton, the Fed’s top forecaster, said on Sept. 16, 2008 according to transcripts released today in Washington. “We’re still expecting a very gradual pickup in GDP growth over the next year.” The records show Fed officials struggling to understand the magnitude of the financial crisis that was underway, and the potential fallout for the economy.

• Risks From Asset Managers to Get More SEC Scrutiny, White Says. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is considering an increase in its oversight of the risk posed by large asset managers such as BlackRock Inc. (BLK:US).

Wall Street Journal:

• Deadly Clashes in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

MarketWatch:

• All 208 times the Fed laughed amid 2008 chaos.

CNBC: 

• G Asset Management proposes to acquire controlling stake in Barnes & Noble(BKS). 

• Detroit files plan of adjustment detailing eventual bankruptcy exit: Report.

ZeroHedge: 

• With The World Burning Around Them, The Fed Was Debating This Epic Question.

• Buffett's Hypocrisy Exposed Yet Again.

• Russia Prepared To Fight War Over Ukraine, Senior Government Official Admits.

• "The Pig In The Python Is About To Be Expelled": A Walk Thru Of China's Hard Landing, And The Upcoming Global Harder Reset. (graph)

• Non-Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations, Plunge 14% From Highs, Drop To 18 Month Low. (graph)

• Spot The Weather's Impact On Existing Home Sales. (graph)

• Did The Fed Also Bail Out A Hedge Fund In The Crisis?

Business Insider: 

• How Liberals Killed The 'Grand Bargain'.

• PROFESSOR PEARLSTEIN: Facebook-WhatsApp Will Be The Top Of The Market.

• A Welfare Law That Goes Into Effect Tomorrow Sanctions The Worst Stereotypes About Poor Families.

• GOLDMAN(GS): Here Are 23 Stocks Hedge Funds Are Shorting Like Crazy.

• The Price Hike Has Arrived: Amazon(AMZN) Prime Now Costs Up To $131 In Europe.

NY Times:

• Public Sector Cuts Part-Time Shifts to Bypass Obamacare. Cities, counties, public schools and community colleges around the country have limited or reduced the work hours of part-time employees to avoid having to provide them with health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, state and local officials say.

Reuters:

• Mexican economic growth slows sharply at close of 2013. Mexican growth slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter as industrial expansion ground to a halt and the pace of services growth dropped, data showed on Friday, pointing to a fragile economic recovery. The data highlights mounting concerns about Mexican growth, which has disappointed investors who were excited by a reform drive last year by President Enrique Pena Nieto. Wavering U.S. demand for Mexican-made exports such as cars and televisions combined with a deep contraction in domestic construction to drag on growth last year. The economy grew at a 1.1 percent rate in 2013, down sharply from a 3.9 percent expansion in 2012, the statistics agency said. 

• Obama meets with Dalai Lama despite China warnings. President Barack Obama met exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama on Friday in a show of concern about China's human rights practices, and in spite of warnings from China the visit would "seriously damage" ties between the two countries. The private meeting appeared to last about an hour, although the Dalai Lama, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, was not seen by White House photographers as he entered or exited the complex.

• U.S. economy stronger, more QE cuts ahead: Fed's Bullard. Recent "soft" economic data notwithstanding, the U.S. economy is headed for a good year of growth, a top Fed official said on Friday, adding he expects the central bank to continue to pare its massive bond-buying stimulus.

USA Today:

• Under Armour(UA) founder says it's not the suit. Under Armour CEO defends his company's speedskating suit and announces plans to double the company's team sponsorship for eight years.

Telegraph:

• Ukraine likely to default, says S&P. Country downgraded as raging political crisis leads ratings agency to warn that its government will not be able to pay its debts.

Le Monde:

• French Taxes Weigh on Finance Jobs, Axa CEO Says. France's 2012 tax increase on salaries, in addition to social charges, specifically targeting the financial services industry "destroyed the creation of sophisticated jobs," Henri de Castries says in an interview. The tax increase also made neighboring countries more attractive as financial centers, de Castries says.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.11%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -1.13% 2) Alt Energy -1.05% 3) Oil Service -.50%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• NCMI, FLTX, CVT, FNGN, SATS, ACTG, DHRM, ICUI, MRC, BCOR, VCRA, VMI, CHTR, EIG, STNR, ABTL, COG, MDCA, RESI, ESRX, VZ, JWN, CENX, ACT, DTLK, PRAA, TAL, PPC, HSP, ESRX, EBIX, AXLL, NEM, SMCI, WAGE, RESI, TILE, RPTP and ACTG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MTW 2) JNPR 3) HPQ 4) LOW 5) ITB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GRPN 2) NEM 3) FNGN 4) INTC 5) WMT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.53%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.86% 2) Biotech +1.71% 3) Utilities +.77%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ESC, SSTK CSU, MDRX, CONN, STRA, RUTH, COMM, ISIS, IPXL, TTS, PCYC, INTU, TTS, ACAD, NLNK, CLDX, HZNP, IMGN, AEE, ALNY, NPSP, EXAS and GDP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FTNT 2) NIHD 3) OPEN 4) APOL 5) NVDA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UA 2) PCLN 3) DISH 4) AMZN 5) GOOG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume