Indices
- Russell 2000 1,183.03 +1.58%
- S&P 500 High Beta 31.16 +1.27%
- Wilshire 5000 19,637.50 +1.31%
- Russell 1000 Growth 880.12 +1.41%
- Russell 1000 Value 929.56 +1.12%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 433.77 +1.75%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,488.24 +1.71%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 934.46 +1.13%
- Transports 7,348.37 +.54%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 111.83 +.25%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 39.76 +.71%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,177.21 +.48%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 963.90 +.14%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 208,698 +1.21%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 458 +93
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 12.90 -9.73%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 416,438 unch.
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,643,886 -.39%
- Total Put/Call .82 +18.84%
- ISE Sentiment 110.0 +4.76%
- Volatility(VIX) 14.0 -4.63%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.40 +5.41%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.55 -.40%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.75 -.79%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,921.83 +.31%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.684 Trillion +.75%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $4.145 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 39.7 -6.0%
- AAII % Bears 21.1 -7.2%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 294.0-2.28%
- Heating Oil 301.63 -2.67%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 191.13 -.56%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 374.33 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 118.10 USD/Ton -3.51%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,461.01 +2.0%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.7% -80 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3428 +3.92%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.79 +.21%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.4 -5.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.50 -1.1 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 30.0% chance of no change, 70.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19
- US Dollar Index 79.69 -.70%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.52 -.27%
- Yield Curve 233.0 -8 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.65% -8 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.117 Trillion +.28%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.03 +5.78%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 143.0 +.27%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 53.0 unch.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 101.02 -3.48%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 265.40 +8.64%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 91.0 -3.70%
- South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.50 -2.96%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 364.94 +2.64%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% +4 basis points
- TED Spread 19.0 -1.0 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 +.25 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 63.15 -2.07%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 86.49 -4.16%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 305.85 -3.92%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 88.50 -1.5 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.697 Trillion -.69%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,012.10 -1.6%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 338,300 -200
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.37% +4 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 348.50 -8.51%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -28.6 +2.0 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% unch.
- Nationwide Gas $3.45/gallon +.06/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,250 +6.38%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,1115.23 -1.65%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 -7.14%
- Rail Freight Carloads 253,358 +7.1%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (35)
- ITMN, CANN, ZU, ESC, STRA, TQNT, KNI, AMBC, ANIK, SSTK, ACAD, JGW, FMI, ICFI WDAY, EXAM, TREX, BKS, EIGI, UEIC, CRI, HVT, BLMN, XNCR, LEAF, SMP, ROC, BKD, BBRG, NDLS, CSU, AAOI, CPF, DOOR and ACTG
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)
- KMR, CTG, EXPD, BWC, AWI, CCOI, QLTY, ICUI, RGR, GTLS, BOOM, DWA, IPCM, FNGN, MDCA, CTRX, QEP, SEAC, RP, NCMI, MRC, QCOR, CLH, JONE, LMOS, DGI and UTIW
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Slightly Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.88 -1.14%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.79 +.52%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.75 -1.13%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.52 +3.0%
- ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 -34.35%
- Total Put/Call .75 -16.67%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.97 +.45%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.55 -2.72%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.33 -1.37%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.12 -1.09%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 303.22 -.65%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 364.93 +1.08%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.75 basis point
- TED Spread 19.50 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
- Yield Curve 233.0 +1.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $118.10/Metric Tonne +.08%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.40 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.50 -2.2 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Defiant Yanukovych Urges Russia Restraint in Crimea. Ukraine’s deposed ex-President Viktor Yanukovych said he’s
still the nation’s rightful leader and urged Russia to refrain from
military intervention in the southern Crimea region, where unrest
spread. Speaking for the first time since leaving Ukraine,
Yanukovych told reporters today in the southern Russian city of
Rostov-on-Don that the country should abide by a peace accord sealed a
week ago with European Union diplomats under which he’d remain leader
through December. He labeled the parliament in Kiev illegitimate and
vowed to return when it’s safe.
- IMF History With Ukraine Leaders May Cloud Aid Negotiations. The International Monetary Fund has extensive experience
lending to Ukraine in recent years. It’s not a track record favoring the
country as it seeks aid to stave off default. Twice since 2008,
the IMF froze loans to the former Soviet republic after governments at
the time balked at measures they had agreed to carry out. After failed
attempts to revive loan talks with Ukraine, the Washington-based lender
concluded in December it shouldn’t commit as much money to nations that
don’t embrace economic change.
- Chinese Army in Your Toaster Signals Rising Grid Attacks.
New technology promising to weave
the Internet in to North America’s power grid could bring cyber-attacks
all the way into your home kitchen, according to a new study.
Opportunities for computer-driven sabotage will rise with the number of
web-connected devices deployed by utilities and energy companies into
homes and businesses, said former Director of the Central Intelligence
Agency Michael Hayden, one of the authors of the study released today by
the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington.
- India’s Economy Slows as Interest-Rate Increases Dim Outlook. India’s economic growth slowed last
quarter, holding below 5 percent and denting the Congress
party’s chances of extending its decade-long rule in national
elections due by May. Gross domestic product rose 4.7 percent in the three months
ended Dec. 31 from a year earlier, compared with 4.8 in the
previous quarter, the Statistics Ministry said in New Delhi
today. That matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
- Italy Unemployment Rises to Record High in Challenge for Renzi.
Italy’s unemployment rate rose to a record high in January, signaling
that companies may fail to hire even after the economy returned to
growth in the last quarter of 2013. Unemployment increased to 12.9
percent from 12.7 percent in December, the Rome-based national
statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. The January
rate is the highest
since the data series began in the first quarter of 1977. The
median estimate of five economists surveyed by Bloomberg called
for an unemployment rate of 12.7 percent last month.
- Iceland Seen Threatened by Capital Flight From Its Own Citizens. U.S. hedge funds aren’t the only ones trying to exit Iceland. Its
own citizens may follow if the government doesn’t show it can lift
capital controls in place since 2008 without triggering a currency
sell-off, according to Iceland’s biggest insurance firm. “If
people lack confidence, they will take their money elsewhere as soon as
the controls are lifted,” Sigrun Ragna Olafsdottir, chief executive
officer of Vatryggingafelag Islands hf, said in an interview in
Reykjavik.
- European Stocks Are Little Changed as Erste Group Falls. European stocks were little changed,
with equities posting their biggest monthly gain since July, as
Ukraine accused Russia of stoking tension on its territory and
data showed U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth slowed more than
estimated. Erste Group Bank AG tumbled the most since May 2009 after
it projected a slow start to the year. Pearson Plc plunged to a
three-year low after reporting a drop in full-year earnings.
Serco Group Plc posted the biggest gain since 2001 after naming
a new chief executive officer. Old Mutual Plc rose 5.8 percent
after making an acquisition in the U.K.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.2 percent to 338.02.
- Natural Gas Futures Gain on Forecasts for Frigid March Weather.
Natural gas futures rose in New York after four days of declines on
forecasts for below-normal March temperatures that would cut stockpiles
of the heating fuel. Gas gained as much as 2.5 percent. MDA Weather
Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland, predicted colder-than-normal weather
in the eastern half of the U.S.
through March 13. Inventories totaled 1.348 trillion cubic feet in the
week ended Feb. 21, the lowest for the time of year since 2004,
government data show.
- Copper Set for Secnd Monthly Loss on China Concern, Yuan.
Copper traded near the lowest in more than two months on concern
China’s slowing growth and a weaker yuan may reduce demand for the metal
in the world’s biggest user. The contract for delivery in three months on the London
Metal Exchange was little changed at $7,034.25 a metric ton by
4:24 p.m. in Tokyo after trading between $7,054 and $6,995.
Futures touched $6,993.50 yesterday, the lowest intraday level
since Dec. 4. The price has lost 0.4 percent this month,
extending a 4 percent drop in January.
- Mt. Gox Seeks Bankruptcy After $463 Million Bitcoin Loss. Mt. Gox, once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, filed
for bankruptcy in Japan, and said that 850,000 Bitcoins belonging to its
customers and the firm were missing. “The company believes there
is a high possibility that the Bitcoins were stolen,” Mt. Gox said in a
statement. “It is considering filing a criminal complaint.”
- Citigroup(C) Cuts 2013 Earnings After Finding Fraud in Mexico Unit. Citigroup
Inc. (C), the third-biggest U.S. lender, said it discovered fraud on
loans to a Mexican oil-services company, forcing the bank to lower last
year’s profit by $235 million. The fraud occurred on loans made to Oceanografia SA that were backed by payments from state-owned oil producer Petroleos
Mexicanos, known as Pemex, Citigroup Chief Executive Officer
Michael Corbat said today in a memo to employees. Invoices from
Oceanografia were falsified to represent that Pemex had approved
them and processed by a Citigroup employee, Corbat said.
- Apple(AAPL) Investors Reject All Shareholder Proposals.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) shareholders approved the company’s proposals and
rejected those that the board opposed at its annual meeting, in a show
of support for Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook. Cook told stockholders at the event in Cupertino, California, that Apple is on the right track.
Wall Street Journal:
- Armed Men Occupy Two Airports in Ukraine's Crimea. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov Calls Move 'Armed Invasion and Occupation'. Ukraine's new government appeared to lose
control over the restive pro-Russia territory of Crimea on Friday after
heavily equipped gunmen surrounded its two main airports, and armed
checkpoints were established on the key roads leading into the region. Authorities
in Kiev accused Russia of fomenting an "armed invasion" and said the
men—who wore unmarked military uniforms and bore automatic
weapons—appeared to be Russian soldiers.
Fox News:
MarketWatch:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
NY Times:
HFMWeek.com:
Reuters:
- Too much flexibility could risk efficacy of Fed policy -Plosser. The Federal Reserve must revamp its
guidance to markets on how long it plans to keep interest rates
near zero because its current low-rate vow is no longer
relevant, a top Fed official said on Friday.
And when it remakes its forward guidance, Philadelphia
Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said, the central
bank must take care to convince markets that it is serious about
whatever promises it makes, or risk those policies becoming
ineffective.
- Fugitive Yanukovich urges Russia's Putin to take firm line over Ukraine. Viktor Yanukovich
urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to take a bolder line
with Ukraine's new rulers who had ousted him, telling him on
Friday that Russia could not remain indifferent to what had happened in the former Soviet republic.
Appearing in southern Russia where he has taken refuge since fleeing
Ukraine on Feb. 21, Yanukovich said: "I think that Russia should act and
is obliged to act. "Knowing Vladimir Putin's personality, I am
surprised that
he is still saying nothing. Russia cannot be indifferent, cannot
be a bystander watching the fate of as close a partner as
Ukraine," the 63-year-old Yanukovich said. "Russia must use all means at its disposal to end the chaos
and terror gripping Ukraine," he said, clearly encouraging the
Kremlin leader to take a firm tack with the new pro-Europe
Ukrainian leadership.
- Hedge funds battle to show their worth in EM sell-off. A sell-off in emerging
markets has given hedge funds a chance to prove they can profit from even the most testing market conditions - and try to
justify their lucrative fees. These are conditions in which hedge funds are meant to be
able to outperform, using their much wider array of trading
tactics to capitalise on default risks, currency routs and share
price falls.
- Economists warn of more market 'tantrums' as U.S. Fed tightens. Turbulence on Wall Street will
likely return when the Federal Reserve decides to hike interest
rates, top U.S. economists said in a paper that warned the Fed's
huge stimulus program could have harmful consequences. The paper, released on Friday, focused on a financial market
selloff in mid-2013 after Fed officials said they planned to
trim monthly bond-buying.
Financial Times:
- Investors ignore rising chorus of US valuation warnings. Stocks looking overpriced if growth fails to pick up. US
equities are heating up, while the economy is feeling the cold. A
bruising start to the year, when emerging market worries briefly boiled
to the surface, has quickly been transformed by the fear of missing out
on the next leg of a US bull market run, on the cusp of celebrating its
fifth anniversary.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Education -1.93% 2) Homebuilders -1.11% 3) Biotech -.71%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- ENZY, CGEN, ELGX, PSO, UIHC, DECK, AVD, PRO, APEI, MDVN, UTIW, KBR, PIR, WWE, NOG, PEIX, ROC, CEMP, WDAY, CHUY, ZU, ENDP, BID, QCOR, PTLA, HTGC, MNTA, CRM, TASR, BSFT, ENDP, ISIS, ACAD, SWN, ECYT, NTLS, ANIK, HALO, PMC, TESO and CEMP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) JNPR 2) DECK 3) MBI 4) AMAT 5) XLB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) GM 2) RL 3) KBR 4) UAL 5) BYD
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) HMOs +1.34% 2) Oil Service +.84% 3) Insurance +.79%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- OVTI, DANG, MELI, TUMI, CLVS, MXWL, WUBA, YOKU, MTZ, CARA, DRQ, BCEI, MNST, SPNC, BBY, MW, SLXP, DDD, AMCX and GPOR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) OVTI 2) MDVN 3) JOSB 4) GDP 5) DECK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) CRM 2) AAPL 3) TRIP 4) FRO 5) MRK
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Premier Starts ‘Kamikaze’ Mission as Crimea Anger Flares. With deposed ex-President Viktor Yanukovych claiming he’s
still the country’s rightful leader, Yatsenyuk must seal a
financial lifeline as investors pull out of Ukraine. Yatsenyuk
in an interview before his confirmation yesterday said he was
prepared to be “the most unpopular prime minister in the
history” of the nation. “The fate of all the members of this cabinet is the fate
of a political kamikaze,” Yatsenyuk said on his website after
getting the support of protesters on Feb. 26. “The treasury is
empty, pensions haven’t been paid in full for more than a month,
gold and foreign currency reserves have been robbed.
- Japan’s Output Climbs Most Since ’11 as Tax Rise Looms: Economy.
Japan’s industrial production grew the most since 2011, indicating the
economy is strengthening as a looming sales-tax bump stimulates demand,
while inflation matched the highest level in more than five years. Output
rose 4 percent in January from the previous month, the trade ministry
said today in Tokyo, more than a 2.8 percent median estimate in a
Bloomberg News survey of 33 economists. Consumer prices excluding fresh
food climbed 1.3 percent from a
year earlier, the statistics bureau said.
- China Must End Its GDP Worship. For China to get off the growth treadmill would be a giant reform all
its own. Why? Well, there are at least three major challenges China will
never be able to address if leaders feel obliged to keep growth above a
specified level: local government finances, pollution and the
shadow-banking system.
- China Yuan Set for Worst Month in 20 Years on Band-Widening Bets. China’s yuan headed for the worst
month in two decades on speculation the government will broaden
the currency’s trading band after allowing more volatility in
the exchange rate. The yuan in Shanghai slid 1.5 percent in February,
according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices. That’s
the biggest monthly loss in CFETS figures since 2007 and in
Bloomberg data before that.
- Soho China Sells Shanghai Buildings Amid Deepening Office Glut. Soho
China Ltd. (410), the biggest developer in Beijing’s central business
district, will sell two office buildings in Shanghai as an office glut
deepens in the country’s financial center. The company signed an
agreement with Financial Street Holdings Co., a developer of Beijing’s
central business area, to sell its entire equity stake in Soho Hailun
Plaza and related loans, and Soho Jing’an Plaza for about 5.23 billion
yuan ($853 million), it said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock
exchange
today.
- North Korea Fires Missiles After Recent Easing of Tensions. North
Korea fired four short-range missiles, the first confirmed launch in
more than nine months, disrupting a period of easing tensions with the
South. The missiles were fired into the sea from North Korea’s east coast shortly before 6 p.m. local time yesterday, and had a
range of at least 200 kilometers (124 miles), South Korea’s
Defense Ministry said.
- Asian Stocks Erase Advance as Yuan Drops Most on Record.
Asian stocks fell, with the
benchmark gauge erasing gains, after China’s yuan posted its steepest
one-day loss against the dollar. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1
percent, set for a third monthly slide amid speculation a weaker
currency will curb earnings. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises
Index slid 1 percent, erasing gains of as much as 0.8 percent, while the
benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 0.4 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4 percent to 137.45
as of 11:44 a.m. in Hong Kong after rising as much as 0.2
percent, and is little changed on the week.
- Yen Gains Versus Euro Amid Crimea Tensions; Oil Falls.
Japan’s yen headed for its longest streak of gains versus the euro in
15 months as reports that armed men seized an airport in Ukraine’s
Crimea region stoked haven demand. Crude oil fell, trimming its February
advance, while South Korea’s won and New Zealand’s dollar climbed. The
yen rose 0.2 versus Europe’s currency at 11:01 a.m. in Tokyo, a fifth
straight advance.
- Gold Heads for Second Monthly Advance as Haven Demand Increases. Gold headed for the first back-to-back monthly gain since August as concern that the U.S. recovery
may be losing momentum and turmoil in emerging markets boosted
haven demand. Assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded products
were set for the first monthly increase in 14 months. Bullion for
immediate delivery was at $1,332.61 an ounce at 9:26 a.m. in Singapore
from $1,331.33 yesterday. Prices are up 7 percent this month and reached
a 17-week high of $1,345.46 on
Feb. 26. Holdings in ETPs are up 0.3 percent in February after
declining last year for the first time since the first product
was introduced in 2003, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- Gold Fix Study Shows Signs of Decade of Bank Manipulation. The
London gold fix, the benchmark used by miners, jewelers and central
banks to value the metal, may have been manipulated for a decade by the
banks setting it, researchers say. Unusual trading patterns around 3
p.m. in London, when the so-called afternoon fix is set on a private
conference call between five of the biggest gold dealers, are a sign of
collusive behavior and should be investigated, New York University’s
Stern School of Business Professor Rosa Abrantes-Metz and Albert Metz, a
managing director at Moody’s Investors
Service, wrote in a draft research paper.
- Natural Gas Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop in New York Since 1996.
Natural gas futures fell for a fifth
day in New York and headed for the biggest weekly drop in 17
years after a government report showed a U.S. stockpile decline
that was smaller than forecasts. Natural gas for April delivery fell as
much as 1.3 percent in today’s electronic trading on the New York
Mercantile Exchange and was at $4.486 per million British thermal units
at 10:08 a.m. in Singapore. Volume for all futures traded was 86 percent
below the 100-day average. Gas is down 27 percent this
week, approaching the biggest slump since December 1996, and
down 9.2 percent for February.
- Deckers Outdoor(DECK) Falls After Forecasting Surprise Quarterly Loss. Deckers
Outdoor Corp. (DECK), the maker of Ugg boots and Teva sandals, dropped
as much as 20 percent in late trading after the company forecast an
unexpected first-quarter loss. The company, based in Goleta, California, projected a loss
of 16 cents a share for the current quarter. Analysts had
estimated a profit of 10 cents on average, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
Wall Street Journal:
- People’s Daily Arms Netizens to ‘Kill the Devils’. An online platform for China’s Communist Party is encouraging
citizens to take out their hostility toward the Japanese in the virtual
world. While Beijing flexes its muscles in a very real way in the
East China
Sea, ordinary Chinese can now play a game called “Kill the Devils” on
the website of the People’s Daily newspaper, the official mouthpiece of
the party here.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
NY Times:
Reuters:
- Sovereigns to increase borrowing in 2014 to $7.1 trillion -S&P. Sovereign debt borrowing is
expected to rise by 2.7 percent to $7.1 trillion this year, with
the biggest relative increase coming in sub-Saharan Africa, a
new study by Standard & Poor's showed on Thursday. The
increase in long-term debt borrowing, equivalent to $185 billion, will
be led mainly by the United States and Japan, which will account for 57
percent of the total in 2014. The next biggest sovereign borrowers this
year are projected to be Italy, China and Brazil.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China Should Set Up Shadow Banking Regulatory Indicators. China
should set up a "regulatory indicator system" for shadow banking risks,
according to a commentary by Lei Wei, a researcher with the Development
Research Center of the State Council. China should strengthen
regulations on shadow banking risks for liquidity, maturities
mismatches, leverage ratios and counterparties, Lei wrote.
Xinhua:
- China's Property Industry Can't Maintain High Growth. China's
property industry can't maintain the high growth of recent years because
the nation's economy has entered a period of medium-high growth, citing
Li Wei, head of the Development Research Center of the State Council.
The supply-demand situation in the property market will see major
changes after more than 10 years of high growth, the report cites Li as
saying.
Evening Recommendations
BNP Paribas:
- Cut (BIDU) to Reduce, target $130.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.0 -4.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 102.25 -.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a prior estimate of a +3.2% gain.
- 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a prior estimate of a +3.3% gain.
- 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated top rise +1.3% versus a prior estimate of a +1.3% gain.
- 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a prior estimate of a +1.1% gain.
9:45 am EST
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for February is estimated to fall to 56.4 versus 59.6 in January.
9:55 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for February is estimated at 81.2 versus a prior estimate of 81.2.
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for January are estimated to rise +1.8% versus a -8.7% decline in December.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Plosser
speaking, China Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Flash CPI, German retail
sales report and the (ETN) analyst conference could also impact trading
today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
