Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (audio). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears and increasing emerging markets/European debt angst offset central bank hopes, short-covering and bargain-hunting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,857.62 -.48%*







The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,857.62 -.48%

• DJIA 16,323.0 +.12%

• NASDAQ 4,155.75 -2.83%

• Russell 2000 1,151.81 -3.51%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.75 -1.63%

• Wilshire 5000 19,526.90 -.90%

• Russell 1000 Growth 826.57 -1.28%

• Russell 1000 Value 942.07 +.04%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 439.31 +.55%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,486.88 -.93%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 922.24 -1.45%

• Transports 7,451.46 -.85%

• Utilities 526.94 +1.01%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.77 +.58%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.58 +4.31%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,174.13 -.71%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 968.57 +.13%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 209,193 -.29%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1 -164

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 +62.50%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 391,174 +1.79%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,604,566 -1.15%

• Total Put/Call .98 +10.11%

• OEX Put/Call .93 -9.71%

• ISE Sentiment 109.0 -3.54%

• NYSE Arms .76 -40.15%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.41 -3.93%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.76 +.77%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.61 +5.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.72 -2.90%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,302.70 -2.46%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.643 Trillion -.12%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.810 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 31.2 -15.3%
• AAII % Bears 28.6 +9.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 305.21 +1.94%

• Crude Oil 101.67 +2.13%

• Reformulated Gasoline 293.75 +.88%

• Natural Gas 4.48 +3.94%

• Heating Oil 295.79 +1.16%

• Gold 1,293.80 -3.05%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 184.79 +1.34%

• Copper 304.15 +3.14%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 362.33 USD/Ton -.09%

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.30 USD/Ton +1.44%

• Lumber 334.40 -.39%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,519.84 +2.37%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.9% +60 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1384 -1.42%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.28 +.02%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.50 +3.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.40 -2.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30

• US Dollar Index 80.18 +.08%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.53 +.24%

• Yield Curve 227.0 -5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.72% -2 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.184 Trillion +.12%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.04 -11.56%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 141.0 unch.

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 47.34 +1.28%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 92.52 -3.48%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 259.31 -10.46%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 88.0 -.56%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 235.83 -13.93%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 370.28 -2.69%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% -1 basis point

• TED Spread 19.75 +1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.19 +1.17%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 94.94 -3.12%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 300.25 -5.25%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 84.0 -4.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.739 Trillion -1.94%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.30 +.60%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 317,750 -20,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.40% +8 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 361.20 -3.47%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.50 -2.5 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.8% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,412 -11.70%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,050.42 -1.70%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 260,713 +1.84%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -4.5%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +3.9%

• Energy +2.2%

• Steel +2.1%

• Agriculture +2.0%

• Utilities +1.0%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks -3.7% 

• Gaming -4.1%

• Internet -4.1%

• Alt Energy -6.3%

• Biotech -7.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• ECYT, LIN, KERX, FIVE, CNVR, HDS and BAX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (39)

• BFAM, PBF, UMBF, KATE, GCAP, FBHS, FDUS, NCFT, GMCR, MGI, AI, SCVL, SYMC, RAX, GIII, CACQ, INSM, TBBK, TEN, ZION, TCS, MRTX, VNCE, FRAN, PNRA, RPRX, PFSI, GEOS, HAE, NFLX, SQI, MCHX, LDOS, AIR, CSOD, DATA, VEEV, SZYM and RALY

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Yen Weakness, Quarter-End Window Dressing, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.79 +1.16%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.49 +.71%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.72 -.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.15 +.57%

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +.93%

• Total Put/Call .93 +12.05%

• NYSE Arms .96 +9.43% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.58 -.57%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.94 -2.80%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.34 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 92.52 -.22%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 299.07 +3.23%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 370.28 +.48%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 19.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 226.0 +4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $112.30/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.5 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.4 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +98 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.29%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.71% 2) Coal -1.35% 3) Drugs +.28%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• IBB, EXLP, COMM, ECYT, CZR, PCG, SHPG, RHT, AV, PUK, CLVS, BT, LDOS, ADES, RMAX, TDG, CEO, LGF, FPRX, PANW, GILD, PCYC, MEOH, BCH, EXAS and ECYT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NDAQ 2) CTIC 3) COP 4) AA 5) CCL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BAC 2) CZR 3) GM 4) BX 5) CREE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.90%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +2.09% 2) Gold & Silver +1.74% 3) HMOs +1.56%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TNET, WUBA, SFM, RH, QIHU and VNET

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EPI 2) IDRA 3) APOL 4) S 5) NRG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RH 2) AA 3) RHT 4) IBM 5) MON
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume