Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• EU Weighs Tougher Russian Sanctions Amid Ukraine Unrest. European officials weighed expanding sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, where they say the government in Moscow is stoking deadly separatist unrest with the same methods it used to destabilize and annex Crimea. European Union foreign ministers, meeting today in Luxembourg, said the bloc should be prepared to impose a third round of sanctions, including economic measures, as armed separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a deadline to free official buildings they’ve occupied. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied his nation is involved. 

• China Tightens Oversight of Trusts as Default Risk Rises. China’s banking regulator ordered owners of the nation’s 68 trust companies to be prepared to provide funding or sell their stakes as the risk of defaults rises in the $1.9 trillion industry for high-yield investment. The China Banking Regulatory Commission told trust companies to either restrict their businesses and reduce net assets or have shareholders replenish capital when the firms suffer losses, according to an April 8 notice that was seen by Bloomberg News. The regulator will also impose a “strict” approval process on trust firms’ entry into new businesses and products starting this year, according to the document.

• Emerging-Market Stocks Fall on EU Threat as Ruble Tumbles. Emerging-market stocks fell, following a four-week advance, as the European Union weighed expanding sanctions against Russia amid mounting tension in Ukraine. The ruble led declines among major currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 0.4 percent to 1,011.61 at 1:45 p.m. in New York. Russia’s Micex index decreased to a two-week low, while the ruble extended this year’s slide to 8.6 percent. Ukraine’s bond yields climbed to a three-week high. Yuan forwards declined to the lowest level in eight months on concern growth is faltering. Brazil’s real led gains among 31 global currencies on speculation policy makers will keep raising interest rates to control inflation. 

• Europe Stocks Rise After Worst Week in Month; Miners Gain. European stocks pared earlier losses and rebounded from their worst week in a month, led by a rally in miners, while investors weighed violence in Ukraine. A gauge of basic-resources companies in the region climbed 1.9 percent, with Polymetal International Plc gaining 4.7 percent and Randgold Resources Ltd. adding 3.6 percent. ThromboGenics NV surged 17 percent after people familiar with the matter said Novartis AG and Shire Plc are among drugmakers weighing offers for the Belgian eye-medicine company. PSA Peugeot Citroen slid 6.3 percent after saying it will cut its model lineup by almost half. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3 percent to 329.79 at the close in London, paring earlier declines of as much as 1 percent. The gauge lost 3.1 percent last week. “The crisis in Ukraine is adding some volatility to the market, especially considering that there is a real economic risk if the situation escalates further,” Francois Savary, who helps oversee about $9.7 billion as chief investment officer at Reyl & Cie, said by phone from Geneva.

• Oil Climbs to Five-Week High on Ukraine-Russia Tension. WTI for May delivery gained 29 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $104.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached $104.55, the most since March 4. Volume was 21 percent higher than the 100-day average.

• Big Banks to Cut Tens of Thousands of Jobs: Cassidy. (video)

• GM(GM) Faces More Tests as Documents Show Culture of Denial. The hundreds of pages of documents released by lawmakers last week shed new light on General Motors Co. (GM)’s more than decade-long failure to respond to auto-safety complaints, underscoring the struggle ahead for Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra as she seeks to refocus on the company’s new fleet of cars.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Acting President: Not Opposed to Referendum on Regional Autonomy. Comments Come After Deadline for Protesters to Lay Down Weapons Passes.

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Nigeria Bomb Blast Kills At Least 71. Suspicion Falls on Militant Islamist Group. A rush-hour bomb blast on Monday at a bus station on the outskirts of Abuja killed at least 71 people, an attack that is likely to raise fresh concerns about security in the Nigerian capital as it prepares to play host to a meeting of leading international investors, entrepreneurs and politicians.

• As Growth Slows in India, Rural Workers Have Fewer Incentives to Move to Cities. Few Manufacturing Jobs and High Inflation, Combined With Rural Programs, Stall India's Urbanization.

CNBC:

• Traders expect gold to shine even brighter—here’s why.

• This is the market's 'new fear gauge': Art Cashin. (video)

• This will be 'the next sector to drop’: Trader. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• Russian Fighter Jet Flies Repeatedly Within 1000 Yards Of US Warship In The Black Sea.

• When The Fed’s Refi Madness Ended, Bank Mortgage Profits Evaporated.

• US Pays Half Of Gazprom's Overdue Invoice With $1 Billion Ukraine Loan Guarantee.

• Flashing Red Warning: Q1 Earnings Growth Plunges To Lowest Since 2012.

• East Ukraine Braces For Military Operation As Ultimatum Passes: Full Ukraine Event Recap.

• Citi Mortgage Originations Drop To Record Low.

• Retail Sales Surge By Most In 18 Months Led By Spike In Auto Sales. (graph)

Business Insider:

•  Anxiety Spreads Through West Point As Military Combat Roles Are Being Slashed.

Financial Times:

• China engineers ‘Potemkin defaults’ to mask debt reality. Beijing wants market discipline without halting growth. The risks have ballooned as China has added new credit roughly equal to the size of the entire US banking system in just the past five years. Total debt as a percentage of GDP has increased from 130 per cent in 2008 to about 220 per cent at the end of last year, according to estimates from Fitch Ratings. An increase of that speed and scale has almost always been succeeded by a crisis in other economies.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.65%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -,32% 2) Oil Tankers -.15% 3) Homebuilders +.23%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ENH, HMSY, AR, DWCH, VJET, BIS, EPAM, NQ, MDT, TKMR, IMPV, PRTA, CUK, WBAI, FLML, QIWI, ANIP, BNFT, DDD, GOGO, PFPT, LNG, GPS, XONE and RTRX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WDAY 2) GOOG 3) HYG 4) XLF 5) OIH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SHLD 2) WFM 3) CRUS 4) NDAQ 5) GLW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.27%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.24% 2) Internet +1.95% 3) Biotech +1.76%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AHL, EW, GDP, WBMD, GLOG, ATI, C, CRK, SWC, HLF, FLDM, CRK, SPLK, SN, ZLTQ, SWC, SSYS, NR, WDAY, DEPO, ACOR, ATI and C

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCL 2) HK 3) LNC 4) SYNA 5) AWAY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) C 2) JBHT 3) FEYE 4) GD 5) EW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg

• Ukraine Tension Mounts as Police Face Gunfire in East. Tensions rose in Ukraine’s eastern regions today as gunmen seized a police station and attacked two others, prompting the government in Kiev to accuse Russia of “external aggression” to destablize the country. Protesters took over the police station in Donetsk, sparking the local police chief’s resignation. About 20 gunmen in camouflage gear blocked off the police and security service headquarters in nearby Slovyansk, seizing weapons and taking hostages, the Interior Ministry said. Police stations in nearby Krasnyi Liman and Kramatorsk came under assault as police exchanged fire with unidentified attackers, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said. Ukraine sent special-forces troops to contain the situation, he said. 
• Eastern Ukraine Violence Brings ‘Crunch Time’ for U.S., EU. The U.S. and European Union have reached “crunch time” to halt further destabilization in Ukraine and curb any further Russian expansion in the region. Prospects for a negotiated end to the crisis were set back after camouflaged gunmen fired on government forces near Slovyansk, about 240 kilometers (150 miles) from the Russian frontier in eastern Ukraine. There were casualties on both sides. Russia requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council at 8 p.m. in New York. The U.S. backed Ukraine’s accusation that Russia was behind the violence.
• Japan Inflation Acceleration Risks Souring Public on Abenomics. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to vault Japan out of 15 years of deflation risks losing public support by spurring too much inflation too quickly as companies add extra price increases to this month’s sales-tax bump. Businesses from Suntory Beverage and Food Ltd. to beef bowl chain Yoshinoya Holdings Co. have raised costs more than the 3 percentage point levy increase. This month’s inflation rate could be 3.5 percent, the fastest since 1982, according to Yoshiki Shinke, the most accurate forecaster of Japan’s economy for two years running in data compiled by Bloomberg.
• PBOC’s Yi Says China’s Growth Rate Is Within ‘Reasonable Range'. China’s economy is growing at an acceptable pace, China’s central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang said, adding to signals policy makers will avoid broad stimulus to counter a slowdown. “Economic growth is still within a reasonable range,” Yi said in an interview with Bloomberg News in Washington, responding to a question about whether he’s concerned that recent weakness in economic data points to a further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. 
• Singapore Dollar Most Vulnerable to U.S. Rates: Chart of the Day. Singapore’s dollar has emerged as Asia’s most-vulnerable currency to prospects of higher U.S. interest rates, driving a gauge measuring the relationship to a record high.
• China’s Top Broker Citic Takes BTIG Stake as CLSA Unit Expands. Citic Securities Co., China’s largest brokerage, acquired a stake in U.S. trading firm BTIG LLC as it expands around the world.
• Germany Warns European Markets Not to Celebrate Prematurely. Germany’s top finance officials warned investors against prematurely celebrating an overhaul of Europe’s economies four years after they plunged into crisis. “It’s good that markets have become more confident again,” Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters in Washington yesterday during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund. “But I’ve said that in parts they’re already exaggerating again.” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said yesterday at the same IMF meetings “there’s a discussion about a stability risk that’s created by financial markets in a certain way running ahead of adjustment processes.” 
• Euro Slides Versus Most Peers as Draghi Warns of ECB Stimulus. The euro weakened versus most of its 16 major peers after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said its strength “requires further monetary stimulus.”
• Technology Bears Miss 20% Payouts After Giving Up on Short Sales. Bears who abandoned bets against technology companies from Facebook (FB) Inc. to Netflix Inc. (NFLX) in 2013 can only sit and watch now as the stocks tumble.
• New York Billionaires Help Obama Policy Group Raise $6 Million. Since Obama’s campaign manager Jim Messina started the group early last year, it has brought in about $32 million. Billionaire David Shaw, who started the New York-based hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co., wrote a $500,000 check; billionaire New York architect Jon Stryker, whose fortune comes from his family’s medical supply business, gave $100,000; Mark Gallogly, co-founder of New York’s Centerbridge Partners LP, supplied $100,000. Amy Goldman Fowler, an author and expert on seeds who’s based in New York, gave $250,000, adding to her $500,000 contribution from last year.
• CBS CEO Moonves Reaps $200 Million in Pay Over Three Years. Leslie Moonves, chief executive officer of CBS Corp. (CBS:US), received $66.9 million in compensation last year, bringing his three-year total to almost $200 million and highlighting the rich payouts in media. His boss Sumner Redstone, who also draws a paycheck as chairman of Viacom Inc. (VIAB:US), got $109 million from CBS over those same years, according to a regulatory filing (CBS:US) today.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• The West Leaves Ukraine to Putin. As Russian special forces invade the country's east, Kiev's leaders feel betrayed by the EU and America.
• Amazon(AMZN) Preparing to Release Smartphone. Retailer Has Plans to Announce Phone in June, Begin Shipping By End of September. 
• Wal-Mart(WMT) Cries Foul on China Fines. Company Says Safety Burden Unfairly Falls on Retailers, Rather Than Manufacturers. 
• Deadly Virus's Spread Raises Alarms in Mideast. Saudis Defend Approach to MERS Outbreak, Even as Cases Increase.
• Opposition Accuses Syrian Regime of Attacks With Lethal Chlorine Gas. Clashes Intensify in Northern City of Aleppo.

Fox News:

• 3 dead in shootings at Jewish centers in Kansas, authorities say. A man in his 70s opened fire Sunday outside of a Jewish community center and nearby retirement community, killing three people, authorities said, while the FBI is joining local police in the search for a motive. Overland Park Police Chief John Douglass said at a news conference Sunday evening that a person who had been reported to be in critical condition earlier was among three killed in the attacks, which apparently occurred minutes apart.

CNBC:

• Markets wrong to think euro crisis over: UBS chair. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. "Markets, when they re-price, always overshoot. But at the moment, as they're re-pricing to a normal situation, they're also overshooting," Weber, currently chairman of Swiss bank UBS, told CNBC in an interview at an International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington. "The market is probably too benign on some of the developments in Europe. It's pricing as if the problems were behind us, but what is behind us is the bad headlines, and the problems are still there," he warned.

Zero Hedge:

• Chief Economist Of Central Banks' Central Bank: "It's Extremely Dangerous... I See Speculative Bubbles Like In 2007". 
• Ukraine Mobilizes Military, Gives Separatists Ultimatum; Russia Slams Escalation As "Criminal", Yanukovich Warns Of Civil War.
• Nasdaq Breaks 4,000; Collapses To Worst Week Since June 2012. (graph)
• NSA Abused Heartbleed Bug For Years, Left Consumers Exposed To Attack.
• 5 Things To Ponder: Is This "THE" Correction?
• Goldman(GS) Summarizes The Rout: "Derisking Is The Name Of The Game".
• Putting The "Costs" Of US Sanctions On Russia In Context. (graph)
• As The Bitcoin Bubble Bursts, Digital Currencies Have A Dilution Problem. (graph)
• All Hail The Draghi Put: The Global Bond Market Is Now Well And Truly Broken.
• Shipbuilding Orders Evaporate As Baltic Dry Collapses. (graph)
• Ukraine Sends Special Forces To "Deal" With Separatists Who Take Over Another East Ukraine City. 
• Russia Tells Ukraine It Won't "Accept" Force Against Demonstrators. 
• "The Liberation Of Southeast Ukraine Has Begun" - Crimean Vice Premier.
• "Shadows Of March 2000" - Goldman On The Great Momo Crash Of 2014.
• “It’s not a bubble,” Retail Investors Are Told As The Smart Money Bails Out.
• Putting The "Bank Loans Are Rising & Animal Spirits Are Reviving" Meme In Context. 
• Ukraine Prepares Military Response To Russian "Act Of Aggression"; Fears Specter of "Gas Wars". 
• Why The Standoff At The Bundy Ranch Is A Very Big Deal.
• One Killed, Many Wounded After Shooting Breaks Out Between Ukraine Special Forces And Pro-Russia Separatists.
• Barclays Asks Is It Finally Time To Short Japanese Bonds?
• "Analysts" Lower Revenue Growth Expectations By Most In 18 Months. (graph).
• HFT Purge Begins: SEC Prepares To "Remove" Some High Frequency Trading Firms.
• CME Sued For Giving "High-Frequency Traders Peek At Market" Since 2007.

Business Insider:

• The Collapse Of Momentum Stocks Is An Ominous Change.
• Hedge Funds' Favorite Stocks Are Getting Shredded.
• NOW IT'S PERSONAL: Protesters Are Targeting Tech Execs Individually, By Name.
• Wall Street's Brightest Minds Reveal THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE WORLD.
• Ukraine Suspends Gas Payments To Russia.
• CITI(C): Here's The Real 'Wile E. Coyote' Moment That Could Send Markets Much Lower. Investors may be coming perilously close to realizing that market levels owe everything to central bank stimulus and nothing to an improvement in underlying fundamentals. What if the much heralded “improvement in earnings to match the rerating in the market” fails to be delivered in coming weeks? How long till investors realize that extra stimulus in Japan might stem the Nikkei’s decline, but is unlikely to generate the economic recovery everyone is hoping for, no matter how large its size? And that the problem afflicting China – that the growth rates to which investors have become accustomed are utterly reliant on an unsustainable expansion of credit – is in fact a problem worldwide? 
• ANALYST: These Two Charts Show The Market's Been On Borrowed Time For Years. (graph) 
• THE BIG UNWIND: Here's How Hedge Funds Drove The Brutal NASDAQ Selloff.
• Russia’s Devious Plan For Eastern Ukraine Is Working.
• Ex-CBS News Reporter: Obama Administration Wants To Have 'A Chilling Effect' On The Press.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: More Volatility Ahead!

Philly.com:

• Meet the influential head of the Philadelphia Fed.

Financial Times:

• Fed policy maker warns on low rates stance. The US Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates low even once the economy is back to normal could risk a policy mistake, a Fed policy maker has warned in an interview with the Financial Times. James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, said he did not see a persuasive reason to think interest rates should be below their long-run level in 2016, if unemployment and inflation are back to normal.
• Slowdown puts 1bn middle class at risk. Almost a billion people in the developing world are at risk of slipping out of the ranks of a nascent middle class, according to FT analysis, raising questions about the durability of the past 30 years’ remarkable march out of poverty.

People's Daily:

• China Premier Li Calls Stabilizing Economy 'Heavy Task'. The current domestic and global environment are complicated and China can't underestimate difficulties.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +2.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.25 +1.75 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.57%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MTB)/1.61

• (C)/1.14

• (JBHT)/.61

Economic Releases 
8:30 pm EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for March are estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.3% gain in February.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM for March are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in February.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for March are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Febuary.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for February are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in January.

Upcoming Splits

• (UA) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Industrial Production data could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
U.S. Economic Preview by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears and increasing emerging markets/European debt angst offset yen weakness, bargain-hunting and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,815.69 -2.65%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change