Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.69%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.52% 2) Utilities -1.0% 3) Drugs +.16%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• HSH, CLB, INSY, APO, DXYN, MIDD, BPI, CSII, WIEC, AGN, DRQ, RL, VRX, AIRM, CXO, ARLP, OMED, EBS, ED, ACET, NEE, ADEP, BT, VVC and SHPG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EXC 2) SPLS 3) WDC 4) PANW 5) XME
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PBI 2) TSLA 3) HSH 4) DUK 5) WFM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.33%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.62% 2) Networking +2.59% 3) Gaming +2.21%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PF, TSRO, GOGO, CPE, PAY, KNDI, IBN, NMBL, DEPO, AEIS, TASR, LQDT, FEYE, SGEN, BC, BDBD, TRIP, MSCI and TWTR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EPI 2) PAY 3) MBI 4) DNDN 5) K

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GD 2) IBM 3) TWTR 4) YHOO 5) PF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Ukrainian Regions Vote in Referendums Rejected as Illegal. Pro-Russian groups hailed a large majority in favor of secession in a referendum they organized in eastern Ukraine that was dismissed as illegitimate by the government in Kiev and its U.S. and European allies. Voters in Donetsk backed the breakaway plan by 90 percent to 10 percent, RIA Novosti reported late yesterday, citing Roman Liagin, head of the election committee. In Luhansk, the other region voting, turnout was 75 percent and the outcome wasn’t initially clear, RIA said. Final results are due later today.

• Russia Banks Should Be Targets in Sanctions, Boehner Says. Economic sanctions should be imposed on Russia’s banks and President Barack Obama needs to push European nations to take a harder stand against Vladimir Putin’s government, House Speaker John Boehner said. “You go after their banks,” Boehner said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo” in an interview to be aired tomorrow. “I’m concerned that we’ve not pushed the Europeans hard enough to take a firmer line against the Russians. And our allies in the region are scared to death.”

• Europe Renews Threat of Russian Sanctions Over Ukraine Vote. European nations intensified their threat of further sanctions against Russia if Ukraine’s May 25 presidential vote doesn’t meet international standards, after President Vladimir Putin visited the annexed Crimea peninsula. “The Russian president must send out more signals of de-escalation so the elections can take place,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today after talks with French President Francois Hollande in Stralsund, Germany. “We’ve had first signs, but these have to get stronger so eastern and southern Ukraine also get the message that everyone wants free and general presidential elections.” 

• Xi Says China Must Adapt to ‘New Normal’ of Slower Growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the nation needs to adapt to a “new normal” in the pace of economic growth and remain “cool-minded” amid a slowdown that analysts forecast will lead to the weakest expansion since 1990. China’s growth fundamentals haven’t changed and the country is still in a “significant period of strategic opportunity,” Xi said, according to a Xinhua News Agency report on the central government website on May 10. At the same time, the government must prevent risks and take “timely countermeasures to reduce potential negative effects,” he said.

• China’s $50 Billion Asia Bank Snubs Japan, India.

• Japan’s Banks Seen Posting Profit Gains That Won’t Last. When Japan’s three biggest banks report a jump in profit this week, investors should be warned: the gains are already disappearing with the drop in the stock market.

• Asia Stocks Fall as China Adapts ‘New Normal’ for Growth. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first drop in three days, after Chinese President Xi Jinping said the nation needs to adapt to a “new normal” in the pace of economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 137.78 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo after losing 0.4 percent last week.

• Europe Deflation Risk Seen by 74% in Global Investor Poll. Financial professionals are optimistic about the global economy, just not as fervent about it as they were at the start of the year. That’s the message from the latest Bloomberg Markets Global Investor Poll, which shows concern about risks ranging from the turmoil in Ukraine to the threat of deflation in Europe.

• Fed’s Lockhart Sees End of U.S. Stimulus Program This Year. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said he expects the U.S. central bank to end its bond-buying program by the end of the year before raising interest rates in 2015 as the economy gathers pace. The world’s biggest economy will expand about 3 percent this year, which will probably lead the Fed to stop its bond buying in October or December, Lockhart said in a speech in Dubai today. Policy makers last month trimmed monthly bond purchases by $10 billion for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Wall Street Journal:

• Crisis in Ukraine: Streaming Coverage.

• FAA: U.S. Airliner Nearly Collided With Drone in March. Incident Appears to be First Case of a Big U.S. Airliner Nearly Colliding With an Airborne Drone.

• FCC Head to Revise Broadband-Rules Plan. Agency Won't Let Firms Segregate Web Traffic Into Fast, Slow Lanes.

MarketWatch.com:

• Geithner: Ending too-big-to-fail is ‘like Moby Dick for economists’.

CNBC: 

• These are bad days for big boys in high finance. (video) These are not happy days for big banks whether on Wall Street or Fleet Street. There's been a steady stream of negative headlines suggesting that five years after the end of the financial crisis, the bell finally may be tolling for too-big-to-fail financial institutions.

Zero Hedge:

• Ukraine Scrambles Fighter Jets, Intercepts Airplane Carrying Russian Deputy Premier.

• Ukraine Claims To Have Detained "Terrorists" With 100,000 Pre-Marked Referendum Ballots.

• Donetsk Region May Shift To Rubles After 1.7 Million Vote In Referendum.

• FEC Chairman Warns Of Forthcoming Government Media Censorship.

• "The Gold Cartel" And The Giant Credit Bubble. (graph)

• The Death Of Hedge Funds? (graph)

• Saxobank Warns China Is Exporting Deflation (And It's Not Going To Stop Anytime Soon). (graph)

• The Miracle Of Modern-Day Keynesian Dreams (In 1 Insane Chart). (graph)

• Tim Geithner Admits "Too Big To Fail" Hasn't Gone Anywhere (And That's The Way He Likes It).

• Warning: Weak Stock Market Closes Are On the Rise. (graph)

• Bizarro Housing Bubble Spills Over Into "Overbid Madness", $10 Million "Flips" In 24 Hours.

• Will History Record The Ending Of QE As An Archduke Moment?

• Japan Debt Update: ¥1,020,000,000,000,000.00. (graph)

• The Taxpayer Cost To Maintain Obama's Golf Handicap: Over $3 Million.

• Are Stocks Cheap? (graph)

• East Ukraine Votes For Independence: Turnout Reported "Off The Charts". (pic)

• Japan Balance Of Payments Current Account Collapses To Record Deficit. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Bello: The Post-Imperial Void.

• Six Numbers That Explain Why Europe Can't Get Its Act Together On Russia.

• Google(GOOG) Has A Grand Plan To Dominate The Travel Industry.

• East Ukraine Is Disintegrating Amid Rebel Referendums.

• Boom Times For Bank Trading Have Gone And May Never Come Back.

• Here's Why Chinese Shadow Banking Is Still Accelerating.

• Here's Why Putin Can't Let Go Of South And East Ukraine.

• The Average Stock Is In A Bear Market.

• Russian Official: We Have A Petition From Moldova's Pro-Russia Region To Join Russia.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: What about “divergences?”.

macrobusiness: 

• Goldman(GS): Iron ore price to crash. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

BBC:

• Ukraine Will Fight Back If Attacked by Russia, Parubiy Says. Ukraine's army is ready to fight back should Russia attack it after referendums in Ukrainian eastern regions are completed, citing Head of Defense and Security Council Andriy Parubiy as saying in an interview. Should Russia recognize referendums and take active steps against its neighbor, "I reiterate once again that Ukraine will defend its territory," Parubiy said.

China Daily:

• Local government policies can't prevent housing prices from falling, Yi Xianrong, a researcher under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, writes in a commentary. Yi cites changes in hukou policy in Nanning city in Guangxi region. Some developers will lower housing prices for fear of a collapse in the supply of their funds, Yi writes. Local government attempts to boost the property market may aggravate investor concerns over risk, Yi writes.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (FLS), (BGFV), (CBS), (MCK), (ACT), (SBGI), (NXST), (SLB), (CBI), (CAM), (SVU), (GS) and (BCO).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.50% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.25 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.50 +.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MCK)/2.40

• (MBI)/.13

• (RAX)/.12

Economic Releases 
2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated at $114.0B versus $112.9B in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, BoA Merrill Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, SunTrust Internet/Digital Media Conference, Deutsche Bank Clean Tech/Utilities/Power Conference and (SLAB) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (audio). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears and earnings concerns offset technical buying, central bank hopes and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,878.48 -.14%*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,878.48 -.14%

• DJIA 16,583.34 +.43%

• NASDAQ 4,071.87 -1.26%

• Russell 2000 1,107.22 -1.91%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.87 -1.09%

• Wilshire 5000 19,621.0 -.39%

• Russell 1000 Growth 868.29 -.19%

• Russell 1000 Value 953.58 -.28%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 456.84 +.82%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,517.42 -.39%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 894.19 -1.03%

• Transports 7,719.30 +.27%

• Utilities 539.55 -.78%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.96 -.95%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.68 +.58%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,157.18 -.51%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 969.61 -.76%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 217,322 -.15%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 105 -69

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 45.95 +19.47%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 383,093 -4.78%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,638,412 -.79%

• Total Put/Call .94 -2.08%

• OEX Put/Call 1.73 +143.66%

• ISE Sentiment 96.0 -15.04%

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +65.12%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.92 +.08%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.53 -1.05%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.11 -.49%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.33 -5.54%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,022.69 +.23%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.591 Trillion +.64%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.963 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 28.3 -4.8%
• AAII % Bears 28.7 -2.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 304.57 -.84%

• Crude Oil 99.99 unch.

• Reformulated Gasoline 289.60 -1.78%

• Natural Gas 4.53 -3.29%

• Heating Oil 290.68 -.66%

• Gold 1,287.60 -.98%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 191.52 +1.53%

• Copper 308.30 +.59%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.70 USD/Ton -3.11%

• Lumber 343.0 +.70%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,544.84 -.08%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.5% +30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2925 -.92%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.14 +.28%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.10 +9.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.40 +1.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/18

• US Dollar Index 79.87 +.45%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.21 -1.16%

• Yield Curve 224.0 +8 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.62% +4 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.260 Trillion +.17%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.75 -3.36%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 143.0 +3.37%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 32.41 -4.97%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 84.55 -3.35%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 230.78 -8.13%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 88.50 +2.38%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 265.83 -2.66%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.77 +1.82%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 20.25 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.25 +.36%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 74.65 -4.50%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 269.32 -4.17%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 84.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.777 Trillion -.38%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,042.30 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 324,750 +4,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.0% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.21% -8 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 350.90 +5.31%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.1 -.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.60% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.66/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1008.0 +1.51%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,086.19 +1.87%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,228 +1.19%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -2.7%

Leading Sectors

• HMOs +5.3%

• Telecom +1.8%

• Medical Equipment +1.4%

• REITs +1.1%

• Foods +1.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Hardware -3.5% 

• Social Media -3.7%

• Disk Drives -6.1%

• Alt Energy -7.0%

• Gaming -7.7%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• NLS, SXI, STRA, EA, BEAV, CKEC, CLDT, NCMI, PEGI and RDN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (44)

• SABA, PSEC, RMAX, BYI, DST, BCOR, HMHC, RWT, VSI, ROCK, SP, TRMB, CIE, MSG, SALE, KODK, KOP, HGR, MWIV, LAYN, RLGY, MTW, TDC, AVD, TREX, AHS, GNC, KEYW, BSFT, AOL, GEOS, VCRA, SFM, TWTR, GPOR, AEIS, WFM, ININ, ZU, SSNI, AEGR, LQDT, SQI and NGVC

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change