Bloomberg:
- Ukraine in ‘Undeclared War’ With Russia as Rebels Unite. Insurgents
killed six Ukrainian soldiers and wounded eight
others in an ambush near an eastern rebel-held stronghold as the defense
minister said the country was fighting an “undeclared war” with Russia.
More than 30 attackers struck a convoy near the Donetsk region
city of Kramatorsk at about 1 p.m., according to a statement on the
Defense Ministry’s website. As fighting flared, Europe tried to rev up
diplomatic efforts, with Germany’s Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier visiting Kiev and Odessa in a bid to broker talks between the
central government and separatists. “Russia is already engaged”
in Ukraine “in supporting Russian-led protesters and terrorists,”
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told reporters in Brussels
today after talks with European Commission President Jose Barroso. “We
urge Russia to condemn them, to urge all these so-called protesters --
or really, terrorists -- to leave and vacate the buildings, and to do
everything they can to stabilize the situation in Ukraine. Russia will
fail to make Ukraine a failed state.”
- Russia Bans Rocket Engine Sales to U.S. Military. Russia
said it will no longer export rocket engines to the U.S. to launch
military satellites, adding to a dispute in Washington that already pits
the two biggest U.S. defense contractors against billionaire Elon Musk. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told reporters
in Moscow today that Russian engines can be used only to launch
civilian payloads, amid tensions over Russia’s support for
separatists in Ukraine and the U.S. and European economic
sanctions that have followed.
- China Slowdown Deepens.
China’s economic slowdown deepened with unexpected decelerations in
industrial-output and investment growth and a decline in home sales,
testing policy makers’ reluctance to step up monetary stimulus. Factory
production rose 8.7 percent in April from a year earlier, the National
Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing, compared with the 8.9 percent
median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Fixed-asset
investment increased 17.3 percent in the first four months of the year,
the slowest for the period since 2001, and home sales fell 9.9 percent.
- Asian Junk Left Behind as Defaults Expose Cracks: Credit. Asia’s junk bond returns are lagging
behind investment-grade debt like never before as China’s
weakest projected growth since 1990 and escalating leverage expose cracks across the region’s economies. Speculative-grade
notes denominated in dollars have gained 2.76 percent this year through
May 9, 1.95 percentage points less than high-grade bonds, according to
index data compiled by
JPMorgan Chase & Co. The underperformance is the worst over the
same period since at least 2005. Globally, returns were about even at 4.1 percent, Bloomberg indexes show.
- German Investor Confidence Drops for Fifth Straight Month.
German investor confidence fell for a fifth month in May in a sign of
growing concern that threats from low inflation (ECCPEST) to a strong
euro may undermine the recovery. The ZEW Center for European Economic
Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst
expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in
advance, slid to 33.1 from 43.2 in April. The gauge is at the lowest
level since January 2013. Economists forecast a decline to 40, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The index
has dropped every month since reaching a seven-year high of 62
in December.
- Bundesbank Support for ECB Stimulus Not to Be Automatic. The Bundesbank’s support for any more stimulus for the euro
area won’t be automatic even if the European Central Bank cuts its
inflation forecast for 2016, two people with knowledge of the matter
said. While the German central bank will focus on the outlook for
price stability at the end of the ECB’s forecast horizon and is open to
a package of measures from a negative deposit rate to halting the
sterilization of crisis-era bond purchases, nothing is decided yet, said
the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is
private.
- Europe Stocks Rise to Six-Year High; ThyssenKrupp Climbs.
European stocks climbed to a six-year high amid better-than-estimated
earnings from ThyssenKrupp AG to Airbus Group NV. (AIR) ThyssenKrupp
rose 4.1 percent after Germany’s biggest steelmaker also raised its
full-year earnings forecast. Airbus advanced 6.2 percent. Pandora A/S
jumped 8.1 percent after increasing its sales projection. Telecom Italia
SpA (TIT) declined 5.2 percent as quarterly revenue missed estimates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3 percent to 341.89 at the close of trading in London.
- Why Chart Watchers Are Skeptical of S&P 500’s New Record. There are soldiers and there are
generals in the stock market, according to Oppenheimer & Co.’s
Ari Wald, and they need to march together for this army to keep
winning.
- Grandma Gets to Play Hedge Fund With New Credit Swap ETFs.
If your grandmother wants to bet her
savings on a bundle of credit derivatives, it’ll be easy for her
to do so through a new swath of exchange-traded funds. The ETFs may not
have been created with her in mind, but she’ll be able to buy their
shares. Regulators this month signed off on a plan to allow trading
in eight new ProShares ETFs backed by wagers on the creditworthiness of
the riskiest to the
safest corporate borrowers. Those funds, which package credit-default
swaps, join more than 250 others that are based on
derivatives, an arena traditionally dominated by hedge funds.
- Wells Fargo(WFC) Needs to Answer for Bad Home Loans, U.S. Says. Wells Fargo
& Co. (WFC:US)’s $5 billion payment two years ago in a national
mortgage settlement was for loan servicing abuses, and the bank still
needs to answer for making bad government-insured loans, a U.S. Justice
Department
lawyer told a federal appeals court.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -1.03% 2) REITs -.43% 3) Retail -.42%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- DXPE, RDEN, EXAM, TOUR, TRAK, CALL, OPHT, BWC, DTV, INSY, PBPB, CWCO, OCIP, SFE, CBPX, DQ, OPEN, WIX, WDR, PVA, AR, DATA, FMI, MCF, ATHN, UVE and PER
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) DE 2) HON 3) CY 4) MNST 5) OIH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) CUB 2) RAI 3) DXPE 4) EXAM 5) WHR
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Hospitals +1.06% 2) Homebuilders +.59% 3) Road & Rail +.54%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- RAX, GMCR, VNTV, CVG, ALNY, MCK, UBNT and BKD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) HSH 2) DXM 3) IDRA 4) RAX 5) GMCR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) KO 2) GMCR 3) RAX 4) BBRY 5) PFE
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Modi Calls for Indian Unity as Exit Polls Signal He Will Take Power. Narendra
Modi called for unity in India as exit polls signaled his opposition
bloc would win a majority in national elections, boosting his chances of
taking power after pledging to revive Asia’s third-largest economy.
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies will win 249 to 340 seats,
according to six exit polls released yesterday, with 272 needed for a
majority. The Congress party and its allies, in power for the past
decade, are projected to win 70 to 148 seats. Results will be announced
on May 16.
- Asian Stocks Advance After U.S. Gauges Rally to Records. Asian
stocks rose, with the regional benchmark gauge on course for its
biggest increase in six weeks, after U.S. equity indexes climbed to
records and as investors weighed earnings. Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s
second-biggest carmaker, jumped 4.6 percent after forecasting profit
will rise to the highest since 2008. Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s
largest technology company, advanced 1.6 percent in Seoul after adding 4
percent yesterday. Sharp Corp., a Japanese electronics maker, soared
5.8 percent after full-year results beat estimates. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index gained 0.9 percent to 139.02 as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo,
heading for the steepest advance since
March 31, as all of its 10 industry groups rose.
- Tire Rubber Plunging as Vietnam Tappers Expand World Glut. Producers
of natural rubber used
mostly in tires are creating a global surplus for the fourth
straight year, leaving prices mired in a bear market that is the worst
of any major commodity. Farmers will expand output faster in 2014 than
the gain in demand from surging car sales, creating the biggest glut in
at least a decade, the International Rubber Study Group said May 2
in an estimate that was triple its forecast in December. Futures in
Tokyo, down 62 percent from a record in 2011 after touching a four-year
low last month, may drop 11 percent further to 180 yen a kilogram
($1,761 a metric ton) this year, a survey of 13 analysts by Bloomberg
News showed.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
- AT&T(T) could strike deal for DirecTV as soon as 2 weeks: Report. AT&T
and DirecTV are discussing a cash and stock deal that could be struck
in as soon as two weeks, according to a report from Dow Jones, citing
sources. The deal would come in at around $100 a share, according to Reuters citing a source.
- Credit Suisse deal with US authorities could top $2B: Report. New
York state's banking regulator is seeking hundreds of millions of
dollars from Credit Suisse in a probe into potential tax evasion that
could push a settlement with U.S. authorities over $2 billion, sources close to the matter told Reuters. The New York regulator made an opening bid of $1
billion, one of the sources said, though negotiations are expected to
push down the amount of the final penalty.
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
- U.S. investor Jim Rogers pegs junk bonds as a short-sell candidate. Junk
bonds, which have done well this year, look like the most promising
short trade the bond market has to offer, prominent investor Jim Rogers
told Reuters in an interview on Monday. Rogers said the group's narrow spreads made it an attractive target relative to other types of bonds. He added that he is not
making the trade himself without giving further details.
- Australian iron ore trade faces labour unrest as boom fades. Tugboat
workers at Australia's
main iron ore port threaten to hold a strike that could halt a
quarter of the world's iron ore exports and cost miners $100 million a
day, just as the industry battles to slash costs and get more out of its
workers. The dispute comes as resource firms say Australia has
become far more expensive than other locations as a now maturing project
construction boom, driven by Chinese demand, led to fat
pay packets and lavish conditions.
- Rackspace(RAX) results beat estimates as web-hosting demand rises. Rackspace Hosting Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly results as demand rose for its
web-hosting services, and the company forecast current-quarter
revenue above Wall Street estimates. The company's shares rose as much as 12 percent in trading
after the bell.
Financial Times:
- This time China’s property bubble really could burst by George Magnus. Chinese
property is the most important sector in the global economy. It has
been pivotal in the country’s economic development, provided lucrative
business for industrial commodity producers from Perth to Peru, and been
the backbone of the surge in world exports to China. In the past
few years, predictions that the sector was about to implode at any
moment have not been borne out – but now is the time for the world to
pay attention. Property activity indicators have been trending lower
since mid-2013, and the downturn in the sector now threatens to turn
into a bust. At best, China is entering a deflationary phase at a time
of global fragility. The default risks in the weakly regulated shadow
banking sector – and the rapid rise in local government debt – are
real, and property-related.
TheHinduBusinessLine:
- India's Public sector banks’ bad debts hit 9-year high. Bad debts of public sector banks have surged to a
nine-year high, with the corporate sector accounting for the biggest
increase. This will be one of the key challenges before the new
government. Indeed, the current favourite to form
the new government, the Bharatiya Janata Party, had in its manifesto
expressed concerns over the bad debt situation. It promised “necessary
steps to reduce non-performing assets (NPAs) in the banking sector” if
it comes to power.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.75 -2.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.75 +.25 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CVG)/.27
- (FOSL)/1.17
- (TTWO)/.09
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to rise to 94.5 versus 93.4 in March.
8:30 am EST
- Retail Sales Advance for April are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.1% gain in March.
- Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM for April are estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in March.
- Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for April are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in March.
- Import Price Index for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in March.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for March are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in February.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Germany ZEW Index,
China Retail Sales/Industrial Production, China FDI, weekly US retail
sales reports, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, BofA Healthcare
Conference and the Citi Energy/Utilities Conference could impact
trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.22 -5.42%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.64 +.29%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.33 +.14%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.49 -3.61%
- ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +19.79%
- Total Put/Call .63 -32.98%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.58 -1.85%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.77 -2.52%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.82 +1.26%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 84.85 +.36%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 266.53 -1.04%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 360.44 +.19%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 unch.
- TED Spread 20.50 +.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 226.0 +2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $103.0/Metric Tonne +.29%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.60 +2.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.40 +2.0 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +170 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Russia Hails Local Votes to Split From Ukraine as EU Imposes Sanctions. Rebels
in eastern Ukraine said they’re seeking to join Russia after disputed
referendums yesterday as the government in Kiev was handed a deadline to
pay for Russian gas to prevent supplies being cut off. The
self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic declared itself a sovereign state
today after saying 90 percent of voters backed breaking away from
Ukraine yesterday. Separatists in neighboring Luhansk announced a
similar move. Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly, OAO Gazprom
(OGZD), said Ukraine must pay for next month’s supplies by June 2 or
face a shutoff the next day.
- Ukraine Rebels Seek to Join Russia as Gas Deadline Is Set. Rebels in eastern Ukraine said they’re seeking to join Russia after
disputed referendums yesterday as the government in Kiev was handed a
deadline to pay for Russian gas to prevent supplies being cut off.
- Ukraine Bonds Drop 2nd Day as Rebels Say Votes Favor Secession. Ukrainian bonds dropped for a second
day and the hryvnia depreciated as pro-Russian groups in the
country’s east said large majorities voted in favor of
secession. The yield on the government’s dollar-denominated bonds due
in July 2017 climbed 14 basis points to 13.71 percent. The hryvnia
weakened 0.8 percent to 11.7450 per dollar by 12:48 p.m. in Kiev, taking
this year’s retreat to 30 percent, the most among more than 170
currencies monitored by Bloomberg. The Ukrainian Equities Index (UX)
fell 1.6 percent to 1,084.63.
- China Credit Gauge Declines as Officials Seek to Tame Debt Boom. China’s broadest measure of new
credit fell last month as authorities extended their campaign to
tame financial dangers even as construction and manufacturing
data point to risks that the economy’s slowdown will worsen. Aggregate financing was 1.55 trillion yuan ($249 billion)
in April, the People’s Bank of China said yesterday in Beijing,
compared with 2.07 trillion yuan in March. New local-currency
bank loans were 774.7 billion yuan, down from 1.05 trillion yuan
the previous month.
- China Regulators Said to Draft Plan for Bank Failure Risk. China’s
government is drafting rules to help manage the fallout of any bank
failure, two people with knowledge of the matter said, as lenders in the
country face rising loan defaults and increased competition. The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory
Commission are working on a plan to ensure the safety of
deposits and an orderly repayment of financial firms’
liabilities during a crisis, the people said, asking not to be
identified because the draft rules haven’t been made public.
Under the rules, financial institutions deemed to have failed
will be allowed to cease operations rather than be propped up.
- China Swap Rate Rises First Time in Three Days on Zhou Comments. China’s
one-year interest-rate swaps rose for the first time in three days
after the central bank said it would refrain from large-scale stimulus
measures to boost growth in Asia’s largest economy.
- Assad’s Military Gains Challenge Obama’s Syria Strategy. With
the Syrian uprising in its fourth year, U.S. President Barack Obama may
be further than ever from his goal of seeing rebels topple President
Bashar al-Assad. What’s more, U.S. and European officials say that Syria, because it has become
a magnet and training ground for Islamic extremists from all over the
world, now poses a greater security threat to the U.S., European nations
and countries in the region than the Assad regime did before the
uprising.
- India Exit Polls Signal Modi Bloc Winning Majority in Election. India’s
main opposition bloc led by Narendra Modi is poised to win a majority
in a national election, most exit polls signaled, boosting his chances
of taking power in the world’s second-most populous country. Modi’s
Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies will win 249 to 340 seats,
according to six exit polls today, with 272 needed for a majority. The
Congress party and its allies, in power for the past decade, are
projected to win 70 to 148 seats. Results will be announced on May 16.
- EU Banks Urged to Boost Capital Now as Stress Test Doubts Voiced.
European banks are being urged to boost their ability to withstand
losses before the conclusion of a stress test that is drawing criticism
for its design.
- Europe Stocks Rise to Six-Year High; Mining Stocks Rally. European stocks rose to their highest
level in more than six years, as mining companies advanced, and
Sky Deutschland AG rallied after British Sky Broadcasting Group
Plc said it’s in talks to buy the company. A gauge of commodity producers jumped the most in almost
seven months as JPMorgan Chase & Co. recommended buying shares
in miners on signs of a recovery in Chinese demand. Sky
Deutschland increased the most in more than two years. Logitech
International SA added 6.8 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG
advised buying the stock. Alstom SA added 2.8 percent after a
report that Siemens AG may improve its offer for the company’s
energy unit.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.7 percent to 340.96 at
the close of trading.
- Russell 2000 Volatility Hits Seven-Share High. Traders are loading up on options as
the Russell 2000 Index (RTY) hovers near the first 10 percent decline
since 2012. Demand for protection against further losses has pushed the
Chicago Board Options Exchange Russell 2000 Volatility Index up
11 percent this year to 19.53. That’s the highest level since
2007 versus the VIX gauge of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
contracts. In the past three days, more than 1 million options
traded on an exchange-traded fund tracking small-cap shares.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
CaliforniaWatchdog.org:
- Fleet of ObamaChoppers to Cost $20 Billion.
You would think America didn’t have any economic troubles, and the
government could waste whatever money it wanted to on anything. President
Obama’s has ordered a fleet of 23 presidential helicopters —
ObamaChoppers — that will cost taxpayers an incredible $20 billion. That’s $20,000,000,000,000.00. Although
the program won’t deliver the ObamaChoppers until 2020 — typical
military-industrial complex delays — they’re named after the president
because he ordered them. It also was a no-bid contract.