Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Ukraine in ‘Undeclared War’ With Russia as Rebels Unite. Insurgents killed six Ukrainian soldiers and wounded eight others in an ambush near an eastern rebel-held stronghold as the defense minister said the country was fighting an “undeclared war” with Russia. More than 30 attackers struck a convoy near the Donetsk region city of Kramatorsk at about 1 p.m., according to a statement on the Defense Ministry’s website. As fighting flared, Europe tried to rev up diplomatic efforts, with Germany’s Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier visiting Kiev and Odessa in a bid to broker talks between the central government and separatists. “Russia is already engaged” in Ukraine “in supporting Russian-led protesters and terrorists,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told reporters in Brussels today after talks with European Commission President Jose Barroso. “We urge Russia to condemn them, to urge all these so-called protesters -- or really, terrorists -- to leave and vacate the buildings, and to do everything they can to stabilize the situation in Ukraine. Russia will fail to make Ukraine a failed state.” 
  • Russia Bans Rocket Engine Sales to U.S. Military. Russia said it will no longer export rocket engines to the U.S. to launch military satellites, adding to a dispute in Washington that already pits the two biggest U.S. defense contractors against billionaire Elon Musk. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told reporters in Moscow today that Russian engines can be used only to launch civilian payloads, amid tensions over Russia’s support for separatists in Ukraine and the U.S. and European economic sanctions that have followed.
  • China Slowdown Deepens. China’s economic slowdown deepened with unexpected decelerations in industrial-output and investment growth and a decline in home sales, testing policy makers’ reluctance to step up monetary stimulus. Factory production rose 8.7 percent in April from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing, compared with the 8.9 percent median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Fixed-asset investment increased 17.3 percent in the first four months of the year, the slowest for the period since 2001, and home sales fell 9.9 percent.
  • Asian Junk Left Behind as Defaults Expose Cracks: Credit. Asia’s junk bond returns are lagging behind investment-grade debt like never before as China’s weakest projected growth since 1990 and escalating leverage expose cracks across the region’s economies. Speculative-grade notes denominated in dollars have gained 2.76 percent this year through May 9, 1.95 percentage points less than high-grade bonds, according to index data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The underperformance is the worst over the same period since at least 2005. Globally, returns were about even at 4.1 percent, Bloomberg indexes show.
  • German Investor Confidence Drops for Fifth Straight Month. German investor confidence fell for a fifth month in May in a sign of growing concern that threats from low inflation (ECCPEST) to a strong euro may undermine the recovery. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, slid to 33.1 from 43.2 in April. The gauge is at the lowest level since January 2013. Economists forecast a decline to 40, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The index has dropped every month since reaching a seven-year high of 62 in December.
  • Bundesbank Support for ECB Stimulus Not to Be Automatic. The Bundesbank’s support for any more stimulus for the euro area won’t be automatic even if the European Central Bank cuts its inflation forecast for 2016, two people with knowledge of the matter said. While the German central bank will focus on the outlook for price stability at the end of the ECB’s forecast horizon and is open to a package of measures from a negative deposit rate to halting the sterilization of crisis-era bond purchases, nothing is decided yet, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private.
  • Europe Stocks Rise to Six-Year High; ThyssenKrupp Climbs. European stocks climbed to a six-year high amid better-than-estimated earnings from ThyssenKrupp AG to Airbus Group NV. (AIR) ThyssenKrupp rose 4.1 percent after Germany’s biggest steelmaker also raised its full-year earnings forecast. Airbus advanced 6.2 percent. Pandora A/S jumped 8.1 percent after increasing its sales projection. Telecom Italia SpA (TIT) declined 5.2 percent as quarterly revenue missed estimates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3 percent to 341.89 at the close of trading in London.
  • Why Chart Watchers Are Skeptical of S&P 500’s New Record. There are soldiers and there are generals in the stock market, according to Oppenheimer & Co.’s Ari Wald, and they need to march together for this army to keep winning.
  • Grandma Gets to Play Hedge Fund With New Credit Swap ETFs. If your grandmother wants to bet her savings on a bundle of credit derivatives, it’ll be easy for her to do so through a new swath of exchange-traded funds. The ETFs may not have been created with her in mind, but she’ll be able to buy their shares. Regulators this month signed off on a plan to allow trading in eight new ProShares ETFs backed by wagers on the creditworthiness of the riskiest to the safest corporate borrowers. Those funds, which package credit-default swaps, join more than 250 others that are based on derivatives, an arena traditionally dominated by hedge funds.
  • Wells Fargo(WFC) Needs to Answer for Bad Home Loans, U.S. Says. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC:US)’s $5 billion payment two years ago in a national mortgage settlement was for loan servicing abuses, and the bank still needs to answer for making bad government-insured loans, a U.S. Justice Department lawyer told a federal appeals court.
Wall Street Journal: 
CNBC: 
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
Telegraph: 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.86%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -1.03% 2) REITs -.43% 3) Retail -.42%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • DXPE, RDEN, EXAM, TOUR, TRAK, CALL, OPHT, BWC, DTV, INSY, PBPB, CWCO, OCIP, SFE, CBPX, DQ, OPEN, WIX, WDR, PVA, AR, DATA, FMI, MCF, ATHN, UVE and PER
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DE 2) HON 3) CY 4) MNST 5) OIH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CUB 2) RAI 3) DXPE 4) EXAM 5) WHR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.05%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +1.06% 2) Homebuilders +.59% 3) Road & Rail +.54%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RAX, GMCR, VNTV, CVG, ALNY, MCK, UBNT and BKD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HSH 2) DXM 3) IDRA 4) RAX 5) GMCR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KO 2) GMCR 3) RAX 4) BBRY 5) PFE
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Modi Calls for Indian Unity as Exit Polls Signal He Will Take Power. Narendra Modi called for unity in India as exit polls signaled his opposition bloc would win a majority in national elections, boosting his chances of taking power after pledging to revive Asia’s third-largest economy. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies will win 249 to 340 seats, according to six exit polls released yesterday, with 272 needed for a majority. The Congress party and its allies, in power for the past decade, are projected to win 70 to 148 seats. Results will be announced on May 16.
  • Asian Stocks Advance After U.S. Gauges Rally to Records. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark gauge on course for its biggest increase in six weeks, after U.S. equity indexes climbed to records and as investors weighed earnings. Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s second-biggest carmaker, jumped 4.6 percent after forecasting profit will rise to the highest since 2008. Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s largest technology company, advanced 1.6 percent in Seoul after adding 4 percent yesterday. Sharp Corp., a Japanese electronics maker, soared 5.8 percent after full-year results beat estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.9 percent to 139.02 as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for the steepest advance since March 31, as all of its 10 industry groups rose.
  • Tire Rubber Plunging as Vietnam Tappers Expand World Glut. Producers of natural rubber used mostly in tires are creating a global surplus for the fourth straight year, leaving prices mired in a bear market that is the worst of any major commodity. Farmers will expand output faster in 2014 than the gain in demand from surging car sales, creating the biggest glut in at least a decade, the International Rubber Study Group said May 2 in an estimate that was triple its forecast in December. Futures in Tokyo, down 62 percent from a record in 2011 after touching a four-year low last month, may drop 11 percent further to 180 yen a kilogram ($1,761 a metric ton) this year, a survey of 13 analysts by Bloomberg News showed.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
  • AT&T(T) could strike deal for DirecTV as soon as 2 weeks: Report. AT&T and DirecTV are discussing a cash and stock deal that could be struck in as soon as two weeks, according to a report from Dow Jones, citing sources. The deal would come in at around $100 a share, according to Reuters citing a source.
  • Credit Suisse deal with US authorities could top $2B: Report. New York state's banking regulator is seeking hundreds of millions of dollars from Credit Suisse in a probe into potential tax evasion that could push a settlement with U.S. authorities over $2 billion, sources close to the matter told Reuters. The New York regulator made an opening bid of $1 billion, one of the sources said, though negotiations are expected to push down the amount of the final penalty.
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
  • U.S. investor Jim Rogers pegs junk bonds as a short-sell candidate. Junk bonds, which have done well this year, look like the most promising short trade the bond market has to offer, prominent investor Jim Rogers told Reuters in an interview on Monday. Rogers said the group's narrow spreads made it an attractive target relative to other types of bonds. He added that he is not making the trade himself without giving further details.
  • Australian iron ore trade faces labour unrest as boom fades. Tugboat workers at Australia's main iron ore port threaten to hold a strike that could halt a quarter of the world's iron ore exports and cost miners $100 million a day, just as the industry battles to slash costs and get more out of its workers. The dispute comes as resource firms say Australia has become far more expensive than other locations as a now maturing project construction boom, driven by Chinese demand, led to fat pay packets and lavish conditions.
  • Rackspace(RAX) results beat estimates as web-hosting demand rises. Rackspace Hosting Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly results as demand rose for its web-hosting services, and the company forecast current-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates. The company's shares rose as much as 12 percent in trading after the bell.
Financial Times:
  • This time China’s property bubble really could burst by George Magnus. Chinese property is the most important sector in the global economy. It has been pivotal in the country’s economic development, provided lucrative business for industrial commodity producers from Perth to Peru, and been the backbone of the surge in world exports to China. In the past few years, predictions that the sector was about to implode at any moment have not been borne out – but now is the time for the world to pay attention. Property activity indicators have been trending lower since mid-2013, and the downturn in the sector now threatens to turn into a bust. At best, China is entering a deflationary phase at a time of global fragility. The default risks in the weakly regulated shadow banking sector – and the rapid rise in local government debt – are real, and property-related.
Liquidity crunch a catalyst for big China slowdown – analysts The mini liquidity crunch is the early warning sign of a substantial economic correction long overdue, amid rising leverage and a broken growth model, say bearish analysts.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3222433/Liquidity-crunch-a-catalyst-for-big-China-slowdownanalysts.html?copyrightInfo=true
TheHinduBusinessLine: 
  • India's Public sector banks’ bad debts hit 9-year high. Bad debts of public sector banks have surged to a nine-year high, with the corporate sector accounting for the biggest increase. This will be one of the key challenges before the new government. Indeed, the current favourite to form the new government, the Bharatiya Janata Party, had in its manifesto expressed concerns over the bad debt situation. It promised “necessary steps to reduce non-performing assets (NPAs) in the banking sector” if it comes to power.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.75 -2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.75 +.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.40%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.12%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CVG)/.27
  • (FOSL)/1.17
  • (TTWO)/.09
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to rise to 94.5 versus 93.4 in March. 
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance for April are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.1% gain in March.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM for April are estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in March.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for April are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in March.
  • Import Price Index for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in March.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for March are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Germany ZEW Index, China Retail Sales/Industrial Production, China FDI, weekly US retail sales reports, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, BofA Healthcare Conference and the Citi Energy/Utilities Conference could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Monday, May 12, 2014

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.22 -5.42%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.64 +.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.33 +.14%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.49 -3.61%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +19.79%
  • Total Put/Call .63 -32.98%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -56.73% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.58 -1.85%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.77 -2.52%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.82 +1.26%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 84.85 +.36%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 266.53 -1.04%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 360.44 +.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 20.50 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 226.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $103.0/Metric Tonne +.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.60 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.40 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +170 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/biotech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Russia Hails Local Votes to Split From Ukraine as EU Imposes Sanctions. Rebels in eastern Ukraine said they’re seeking to join Russia after disputed referendums yesterday as the government in Kiev was handed a deadline to pay for Russian gas to prevent supplies being cut off. The self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic declared itself a sovereign state today after saying 90 percent of voters backed breaking away from Ukraine yesterday. Separatists in neighboring Luhansk announced a similar move. Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly, OAO Gazprom (OGZD), said Ukraine must pay for next month’s supplies by June 2 or face a shutoff the next day. 
  • Ukraine Rebels Seek to Join Russia as Gas Deadline Is Set. Rebels in eastern Ukraine said they’re seeking to join Russia after disputed referendums yesterday as the government in Kiev was handed a deadline to pay for Russian gas to prevent supplies being cut off.
  • Ukraine Bonds Drop 2nd Day as Rebels Say Votes Favor Secession. Ukrainian bonds dropped for a second day and the hryvnia depreciated as pro-Russian groups in the country’s east said large majorities voted in favor of secession. The yield on the government’s dollar-denominated bonds due in July 2017 climbed 14 basis points to 13.71 percent. The hryvnia weakened 0.8 percent to 11.7450 per dollar by 12:48 p.m. in Kiev, taking this year’s retreat to 30 percent, the most among more than 170 currencies monitored by Bloomberg. The Ukrainian Equities Index (UX) fell 1.6 percent to 1,084.63.
  • China Credit Gauge Declines as Officials Seek to Tame Debt Boom. China’s broadest measure of new credit fell last month as authorities extended their campaign to tame financial dangers even as construction and manufacturing data point to risks that the economy’s slowdown will worsen. Aggregate financing was 1.55 trillion yuan ($249 billion) in April, the People’s Bank of China said yesterday in Beijing, compared with 2.07 trillion yuan in March. New local-currency bank loans were 774.7 billion yuan, down from 1.05 trillion yuan the previous month. 
  • China Regulators Said to Draft Plan for Bank Failure Risk. China’s government is drafting rules to help manage the fallout of any bank failure, two people with knowledge of the matter said, as lenders in the country face rising loan defaults and increased competition. The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission are working on a plan to ensure the safety of deposits and an orderly repayment of financial firms’ liabilities during a crisis, the people said, asking not to be identified because the draft rules haven’t been made public. Under the rules, financial institutions deemed to have failed will be allowed to cease operations rather than be propped up. 
  • China Swap Rate Rises First Time in Three Days on Zhou Comments. China’s one-year interest-rate swaps rose for the first time in three days after the central bank said it would refrain from large-scale stimulus measures to boost growth in Asia’s largest economy.
  • Assad’s Military Gains Challenge Obama’s Syria Strategy. With the Syrian uprising in its fourth year, U.S. President Barack Obama may be further than ever from his goal of seeing rebels topple President Bashar al-Assad. What’s more, U.S. and European officials say that Syria, because it has become a magnet and training ground for Islamic extremists from all over the world, now poses a greater security threat to the U.S., European nations and countries in the region than the Assad regime did before the uprising
  • India Exit Polls Signal Modi Bloc Winning Majority in Election. India’s main opposition bloc led by Narendra Modi is poised to win a majority in a national election, most exit polls signaled, boosting his chances of taking power in the world’s second-most populous country. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies will win 249 to 340 seats, according to six exit polls today, with 272 needed for a majority. The Congress party and its allies, in power for the past decade, are projected to win 70 to 148 seats. Results will be announced on May 16. 
  • EU Banks Urged to Boost Capital Now as Stress Test Doubts Voiced. European banks are being urged to boost their ability to withstand losses before the conclusion of a stress test that is drawing criticism for its design.
  • Europe Stocks Rise to Six-Year High; Mining Stocks Rally. European stocks rose to their highest level in more than six years, as mining companies advanced, and Sky Deutschland AG rallied after British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc said it’s in talks to buy the company. A gauge of commodity producers jumped the most in almost seven months as JPMorgan Chase & Co. recommended buying shares in miners on signs of a recovery in Chinese demand. Sky Deutschland increased the most in more than two years. Logitech International SA added 6.8 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG advised buying the stock. Alstom SA added 2.8 percent after a report that Siemens AG may improve its offer for the company’s energy unit. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.7 percent to 340.96 at the close of trading.
  • Russell 2000 Volatility Hits Seven-Share High. Traders are loading up on options as the Russell 2000 Index (RTY) hovers near the first 10 percent decline since 2012. Demand for protection against further losses has pushed the Chicago Board Options Exchange Russell 2000 Volatility Index up 11 percent this year to 19.53. That’s the highest level since 2007 versus the VIX gauge of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index contracts. In the past three days, more than 1 million options traded on an exchange-traded fund tracking small-cap shares.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk: 
Business Insider:
CaliforniaWatchdog.org:
  • Fleet of ObamaChoppers to Cost $20 Billion. You would think America didn’t have any economic troubles, and the government could waste whatever money it wanted to on anything. President Obama’s has ordered a fleet of 23 presidential helicopters — ObamaChoppers — that will cost taxpayers an incredible $20 billion. That’s $20,000,000,000,000.00. Although the program won’t deliver the ObamaChoppers until 2020 — typical military-industrial complex delays — they’re named after the president because he ordered them. It also was a no-bid contract.