Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• NATO Maps Eastern Defense Plan, With European Forces in Lead. NATO will set up military headquarters and command centers stretching from the Baltic to Black seas to operate a new rapid-reaction force to defend eastern Europe against the increasingly assertive Russia. Allied defense ministers fleshed out plans for a 5,000-man force that could start deploying within 48 hours and ultimately put 30,000 troops in the field, to be run by a rotating cast of European militaries. The 28 allied countries will “ensure that we have the right forces in the right place at the right time,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday after the meeting in Brussels. “We are taking these steps in response to our changed security environment.”
• Greek Bank Bonds Tumble After ECB Restricts Funding Windown. Bonds of Greek banks tumbled after the European Central Bank said it would restrict their access to funding, raising financing costs and limiting the availability of liquidity. National Bank of Greece SA and Piraeus Bank SA were the biggest decliners in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Euro Financial High Yield index, sliding as much as 6 cents on the euro. The price of credit-default swaps on Greek sovereign debt signaled a 71 percent probability of default within five years. “A very large warning shot has been fired across the Greek bows by the ECB,” said Gary Jenkins, chief credit strategist at London-based L&G Capital. “Whilst the most likely outcome is for some kind of compromise, there still remains the possibility that Greece could end up defaulting and exiting the euro zone almost by accident as much as design.” 
• Anthem Attack Investigators See Signs of Chinese Hackers. Investigators of Anthem Inc.’s data breach are pursuing evidence that points to Chinese state-sponsored hackers who are stealing personal information from health-care companies for purposes other than pure profit, according to three people familiar with the probe. The breach, which exposed Social Security numbers and other sensitive details of 80 million customers, is one of the biggest thefts of medical-related customer data in U.S. history. China has said in the past that it doesn’t conduct espionage through hacking.  
• Ukraine Lets Hryvnia Dive as IMF-Backed Move Boosts Bailout Case. Ukraine loosened its grip on the hryvnia currency, allowing it to slump by a third in a move backed by the International Monetary Fund amid talks for a new bailout. The hryvnia retreated 33 percent to a record 25 per dollar at 6:20 p.m. in Kiev. Ukraine’s dollar-denominated bonds due in July 2017 advanced to a five-day high of 53.366 cents on the dollar, reducing the yield to 41.13 percent.  
• Russian Inflation at Fastest Since 2008 After Currency Rout. Russian inflation topped forecasts by economists, accelerating to the fastest pace in almost seven years as the country’s worst currency crisis since 1998 ignited price growth. Consumer prices rose 15 percent in January from a year earlier, compared with 11.4 percent in December, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. That exceeded the median estimate of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey for 13.5 percent. Prices jumped 3.9 percent from the previous month.
• Longtime Sberbank Champion Says Sell as Crisis Escalates. After more than five years of advising clients to buy OAO Sberbank, Renaissance Capital is turning bearish on Russia’s biggest lender, saying a spiraling economic crisis will cut margins and increase risks.  
• Boko Haram’s Widening Raids Entangle Regional Nations in War. The Nigerian militant group Boko Haram’s latest attack in neighboring Cameroon killed as many as 81 people and deepened the engagement of armies from the region to halt the Islamists’ drive to establish a self-styled caliphate. Gunmen attacked the northern Cameroonian town of Fotokol early Wednesday, just a day after Chadian forces operating in Nigerian territory drove militants out of the border town of Gamboru, about 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) away. Local resident Tijjani Abba Kuli said by phone Thursday from Fotokol that the militants killed at least 81 people.
• Indonesia’s Economy Shrank Last Quarter on Commodities Slump. Indonesia’s economy shrank last quarter from the previous three months, capping the weakest year since at least the global financial crisis, on falling commodity prices and cooling investment. Southeast Asia’s biggest economy shrank 2.06 percent last quarter from the previous three months, when it expanded a revised 3.16 percent, the statistics bureau said in Jakarta on Thursday. It grew 5.02 percent in 2014, from a revised 5.58 percent pace the previous year. 
• Denmark Cuts Key Deposit Rate to Minus 0.75% to Save Peg. Denmark’s central bank cut its benchmark rate for a fourth time this year as it steps up efforts to fight back capital flows that threaten to strengthen the krone beyond the confines of its euro peg. The central bank lowered the deposit rate to minus 0.75 percent from minus 0.5 percent, it said today. It left its lending rate at 0.05 percent. 
• Stocks in Europe closed at their highest level in more than seven years. Greek shares fell amid concern over talks between the nation’s government and European leaders. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent to 372.51 at the close of trading, erasing intraday losses of as much as 0.6 percent as energy shares advanced.
• Tenacious Oil Bulls Put $4 Billion in ETFs on Rebound Bet. Oil investors are still betting on a rebound after being proved wrong since October. They’ve poured more than $4 billion into oil exchange-traded products in the past four months even as prices tumbled 47 percent. That included the $1.99 billion added in January, the biggest monthly inflow in six years. 
• Pfizer(PFE) Flexes Muscle With Priciest Purchase of Decade. Pfizer Inc. is proving that when it sees something it wants, it’s willing to pay up. The company is buying injectable-medicine maker Hospira Inc. for about $17 billion, or $90 a share, a price that Hospira’s stock has never come close to on its own. In turn, Pfizer gains a steadily growing business to tack onto its established drugs unit that it has discussed spinning off.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Kerry Visits Ukraine, French, German Leaders to Follow in Bid to End Violence. Moscow Warns Any Military Aid Will be Seen As Threat to Russian Security. The diplomatic scramble to calm the conflict in eastern Ukraine entered a new, urgent phase Thursday as Western leaders descended on Kiev, while Moscow warned that any military aid to the country would be seen as a threat to Russian security. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Kiev and repeated Western demands that Russian-backed separatists pull back their fighters and arms. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande were due to arrive later in the day on an emergency trip of their own, and to travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
• Germany Cool on Greek Push for Bridge Program. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis Meets With German Counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble in Berlin. Germany on Thursday dismissed Greece’s request for bridge funding that would give it three months to negotiate new bailout terms, insisting that the newly-elected government implement the conditions tied to its agreed program. “We agreed to disagree,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told a joint news conference with his Greek counterpart, Yanis Varoufakis, after the two met in Berlin on Thursday morning.

CNBC:

• Weatherford(WFT) to cut 5,000 jobs as it fights oil slump. Weatherford International plans to cut 5,000 jobs, or about 9 percent of its workforce, by the end of the first quarter as the oil services company tries to save costs amid sinking oil prices and budget cuts. 
• Oil heading for $30, currency war coming: Analysts. (video)
• What Anthem breach victims need to do now. (video) Repercussions from some data breaches are easily remedied, but victims of insurance company Anthem's breach will have to remain vigilant against fraud for the rest of their lives.

ZeroHedge:

• Greece: The Big Picture Update, And Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold.
• Russia Deploys Nuclear ICBM Launchers On Combat Patrol.
• Thousands Of Anti-ECB Protesters Gather In Athens In "First Greek Pro-Government Rally" - Live Feed.
• "Elections Change Nothing" Germany Admits Distrust Of The Masses Is The EU Way.
• Does Anyone Remember 2007? The Global Debt Bubble In 3 Ominous Charts. (graph)
• Whispers Of Greek Capital Controls Begin.
• Putin Invites Tsipras To Visit Russia.
• Greece Refuses To Back Down: "Government Will Do As Promised" Tsipras Says.
• US Trade Deficit Soars In December As Strong Dollar Hurts Exports, Downward Q4 GDP Revisions Imminent. (graph)
• Layoffs Surge 17.6% YoY, Shale State Joblessness Soars, Initial Jobless Claims Rise. (graph)
• Bulk Shipping Bankruptices Begin As Baltic Dry Collapse Continues. (graph)
• Schauble And Varoufakis Meeting Ends: "We Didn't Even Agreed To Disagree".
• Ukraine Currency Plunges Over 30% After Central Bank Gives Up On Indicative Rate. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Alarming GIF shows Russian-backed rebels slowly taking over eastern Ukraine.
• ISIS manifesto reveals what life is like for women under the terror group.
• Iranian commander: The 'Americans are begging us for a deal'.

Financial Times:

• Debt mountains spark fears of another crisis. The world is awash with more debt than before the global financial crisis erupted in 2007, with China’s debt relative to its economic size now exceeding US levels, according to a report. Global debt has increased by $57tn since 2007 to almost $200tn — far outpacing economic growth, calculates McKinsey & Co, the consultancy. As a share of gross domestic product, debt has risen from 270 per cent to 286 per cent.

Telegraph:

• Europe could be torn apart by the wrong sort of Eurosceptics. In Greece, France, Spain – and increasingly in Italy – populist parties have emerged as the greatest internal threat faced by the European Union since its inception. 
• European Central Bank's move to cut Greek bank funding puts pressure on debt deal. Stocks plummet and Greek bond yields soar as Greece's finance minister pleads for time and financial assistance from the troika.  

N-TV:

• Greece Must Respect Agreements, Germany's Brinkhaus Tells N-TV. Greek govt must respect rules of aid agreements signed by its predecessors, Ralph Brinkhaus, finance spokesman in parliament for Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, says. Agreeing to rule changes for Greece would prompt people in other euro region countries that got aid to resist repayments. "We can't apply double standards, we can't say some have to repay everything, some have to stick to all the reforms, while others are getting relief," he said.

The Straits Times:

• ISIS has built near-impregnable base and mass appear: New book.

ISIS has built near-impregnable base and mass appeal: New book - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/europe/story/isis-has-built-near-impregnable-base-and-mass-appeal-new-book-20150205#sthash.TSyXsl7s.dpuf

ISIS has built near-impregnable base and mass appeal: New book - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/europe/story/isis-has-built-near-impregnable-base-and-mass-appeal-new-book-20150205#sthash.TSyXsl7s.dpuf

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.48%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.45% 2) Papers -.82% 3) Homebuilders -.62%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CLW, IRBT, GMCR, IT, TDC, FEIC, FBHS, DFT, MDSO, UA, CDNS, KORS, RARE, CRRC, POWI, HI, SNCR, PMT, FOXA, ADS, PRU, GEOS, COST, RSTI, USG, MUSA, CMI, UBNT, FBHS, ACXM, DFT, GEOS and MTRX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWG 2) YUM 3) WLT 4) GMCR 5) PRU

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FOXA 2) M 3) POWL 4) ANTM 5) X
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.82%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.05% 2) Steel +1.75% 3) Coal +1.73%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HSP, SMRT, BPFH, GRA, DATA, GRUB, BLL, COTY, OPK, ICPT, PBH, ROSE, BLL, OAS, BGC, CONN, ORLY, GPRE, SPLK, CHTR, EL, LB, TW, EQT, FEYE, ATW and CCK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATML 2) NUS 3) GLUU 4) MDLZ 5) MNKD
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LB 2) UHAL 3) SMRT 4) GRUB 5) HSP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Greece Loses ECB Funds, Raising Pressure to Yield to Austerity. Greece lost a critical funding artery as the European Central Bank restricted loans to its financial system, raising pressure on the 10-day-old government to yield to German-led austerity demands to stay in the euro zone. The ECB’s decision, announced at 9:36 p.m. in Frankfurt, will raise financing costs for Greek banks and stiffen oversight by the central bank. The next move is up to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who swept to power promising to reverse five years of spending cuts that accompanied 240 billion euros ($272 billion) of bailout loans. The ECB move came hours before the Greek finance chief, Yanis Varoufakis, was due to meet Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin and hours after he met ECB President Mario Draghi.

• The Rebel Leader Who Makes Putin Look Cautious. Vladimir Putin’s critics say he went too far on Ukraine. The former Russian agent who helped trigger the conflict says his biggest mistake was not going far enough. Putin has made himself a “hostage” to the war in Ukraine by opting not to annex the Donetsk and Luhansk regions after taking Crimea, according to Igor Girkin, the former rebel commander who goes by the name Strelkov, or Shooter. If the president had sent troops into Donetsk and Luhansk to support the insurgents like he did in Crimea, all of Novorossiya, or New Russia, the term the rebels and their supporters revived to identify a swathe of southeastern Ukraine that was once part of the Russian empire, would now be reunited with the motherland, Strelkov said in an interview in Moscow. But Putin, “not understanding that he’d already crossed the West’s red line,” and influenced by “top bureaucrats and oligarchs,” decided to stop at Crimea, said Strelkov. “Now we have a war that will continue to grow, regardless of whether Russia wants it to or not.”  

• Asia Stocks Fall on Euro Concern; China Futures Jump Amid Easing. Asian stocks fell as investors weighed the European Central Bank’s tightening of the terms of Greece’s bailout. China stock index futures climbed after the government cut banks’ reserve ratios for the first time since 2012. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 141.61 as of 9:24 a.m. in Tokyo.

Wall Street Journal:

• China’s Total Debt Load Equals 282% of GDP, Raising Economic Risks. (graph) The speed of Chinese debt growth, much of it related to real estate, raises risks that an unwinding of the country’s two-decade growth boom might not go down so smoothly. Here are some key facts from the report.

• Ukraine Anticipates Arms Supplies From West. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to Visit Kiev on Thursday. Ukraine’s president suggested the West is close to sending arms to Kiev to help fight off pro-Russia rebels after previous appeals for weapons were rebuffed, as the capital prepares for a visit by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry aimed at finding a solution to the conflict in the east.

• Greeks Meet Skepticism in Frankfurt, Brussels. The European Central Bank No Longer Accepts Greek Bonds From Banks Seeking Funding. European officials put a damper on plans by the new Greek government to ease conditions on its bailout, warning that without an extension of the existing rescue program—and the austerity measures it contains—the government will lose access to new money by the end of this month. On Wednesday evening the European Central Bank announced it would no longer accept

• UBS Faces a New Tax-Evasion Probe. Authorities Investigate Whether Swiss Bank’s Clients Used ‘Bearer Securities’ to Hide Cash. Federal prosecutors have launched a new probe into whether Swiss bank UBS AG helped Americans evade taxes through investments largely banned in the U.S., according to people familiar with the investigation.

• Health Insurer Anthem Hit by Hackers. Breach Gets Away With Names, Social Security Numbers of Customers, Employees. Anthem Inc., the country’s second-biggest health insurer, said hackers broke into a database containing personal information for about 80 million of its customers and employees in what is likely to be the largest data breach disclosed by a health-care company.

Fox News:

• Brian Williams lied about his copter being shot down in Iraq. Brian Williams, the nation’s top-rated news anchor, has admitted fabricating a tale of being shot down in a helicopter over Iraq a dozen years ago. Williams apologized on the air Wednesday evening, saying: “I made a mistake in recalling the events of 12 years ago.”

MarketWatch.com:

• Keurig(GMCR) shares fall after disappointing outlook, results. Shares of Keurig Green Mountain Inc. dropped -7.5% in the extended session Wednesday after the single-serve coffee company's outlook and quarterly results fell below Wall Street estimates.

• What you need to know about ECB’s Greek collateral decision. It’s not a welcome development. Greek banks have suffered significant deposit withdrawals before and after the January election that brought the antiausterity government, led by Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras, to power. “This news will likely scare depositors and result in further bank runs,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group in Fairfax, Va.

CNBC:

• West Coast ports on the verge of a complete gridlock. Traffic at nearly 30 West Coast ports is on the verge of "complete gridlock" and shipping officials have threatened to stop paying dockworkers if a contract deal is not reached soon.

• Yum Brands(YUM) earnings: 61 cents per share vs. EPS estimate of 66 cents. Same-store sales in China were forecast to plunge 19.4 percent, according to Consensus Metrix. Instead, China same-store sales declined 16 percent.

Zero Hedge:

• ECB Pulls The Trigger: Blocks Funding To Greece Via Debt Collateral - Full Statement.

• Paul Singer Warns "The Consequences Of Monetary Manipulation Are Unknowable".

• Meet The Man Behind The Scenes: The "Pro-Market Socialist" Banker Who Will Shape "Europe's Financial Future".

•  Baltic  Dry Crashes To New 29-Year Low.

• President Of Euro Parliament Warns Greece Risks National Bankruptcy; Varoufakis Replies: "Greece Already Is Bankrupt".

• Here's A Startling Fact About President Obama's New Budget.

• Draghi Dashes Buffett Bounce As Crude Carnage Continues. (graph)

• These Are The "Highest Conviction" Hedge Fund Strategies And Most Crowded Trades.(graph)

• Abegeddon: Speculators Are Net Short Japanese Stocks For First Time Since Abenomics. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Your tweets will soon show up in Google searches — again.

• The CME(CME) will close most of its open outcry trading pits by this summer. 

• GREECE CRASHED. (graph)

• Jeb Bush stumbles on Yemen in speech.

• Russia's military is adding more planes this year than most countries own in total.

Reuters:

• Gilead's(GILD) deep discounts fuel investor worries about drug pricing.

Telegraph:

• Devaluation by China is the next great risk for a deflationary world. China is not alone in facing a dilemma as deflation spreads and beggar-thy-neighbour currency wars become the norm.

• ECB tightens the screw on Greece with plan to cut funding earlier. Eurozone central bank officials refuse to accept Greek bonds, pushing the burden of supporting the country's banks back onto Athens.

Spiegel online:

• McKinsey Says China's Debt Development Not Sustainable. Debt accumulated by private households, cos. and govt. quadrupled in China in past 7 years, citing a McKinsey study it obtained. Structure of debt in China worrisome as real estate industry's debt too high. Global indebtedness more than doubled to $199t last year from $87t in 2000. Global debt now represents 286% of global economic activity, up from 269% in 2007.

Sueddeutsche Zeitung:

• U.S. May Lift 'Price Russia Pays for Aggression,' Biden Says. U.S. may loosen economic sanctions should Russia meet its obligations under Minsk agreement, or increase the burden on Russia for its "aggressive behavior" in Ukraine should country not follow suit, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said in an interview. The U.S. has no interest in military escalation, he said.

People's Daily:

• China Ratio Cut Unlikely to Reverse Property Correction. The reserve requirement ratio cut is unlikely to reverse the overall correction in China's property market and smaller cities will still face destocking pressure, citing researchers.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.5 +.75 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ABB)/.35

• (ADS)/3.33

• (BDX)/1.44

• (CI)/1.67

• (CMI)/2.51

• (EL)/1.05

• (ICE)/2.54

• (KORS)/1.33

• (PTEN)/.50

• (PM)/1.06

• (SNA)/1.79

• (VMC)/.28

• (BWLD)/1.11

• (CME)/.93

• (EXPE)/1.01

• (GPRO)/.70

• (LNKD)/.53

• (MCK)/2.62

• (PPS)/.68

• (SYMC)/.49

• (TWTR)/.06

• (YELP)/.24

Economic Releases
7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts for January.

• RBC Consumer Outlook Index for February.

8:30 am EST

• Preliminary 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.3% gain in 3Q.

• Preliminary 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.2% versus a -1.0% decline in 3Q.

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 290K versus 265K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2400K versus 2385K prior.

• The Trade Deficit for December is estimated at -$38.0B versus -$39.0B in November.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of England decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (SE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Concerns, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.47 +.81%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.97 -.71%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.67 +.57%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.30 +1.89%

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +31.63%

• Total Put/Call .93 -1.06%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 +97.87% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.68 +1.09%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 750.0 -3.37%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.40 -.55%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.71 -2.77%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.41 +.93%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 390.45 +1.78%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.60 +.09%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 24.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 128.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.58/Metric Tonne -.95%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.0 unch.
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.80 +8.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.90 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -5 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlnes

Bloomberg: 

• U.N. Tallies More Than 5,000 Dead in Ukraine Fighting. (video) 

• OSCE Seeks Truce for Debaltseve Exodus, Reports Cluster Bomb Use. The OSCE called for a truce to evacuate civilians from the crossroad town of Debaltseve and said two people were killed in a strike with cluster bombs last week in the rebel-held city of Luhansk. “On humanitarian grounds” the group called on “all actors in and around the Debaltseve area to establish a local temporary truce for a minimum of three days, taking immediate effect,” Ivica Dacic, the chairman of the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe, said in a statement on Tuesday. Debaltseve, a strategic transport hub on a road connecting the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, remained under heavy fire from separatists, Ukrainian military spokesman Leonid Matyukhin said Wednesday. Nearly 2,000 civilians were evacuated from the area at the end of January, according to Ukrainian military officials.  

• Greece May Run Out of Cash as Early as March. (video) As Greece’s creditors line up to oppose the country’s demand for a debt restructuring, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s refusal to accept more bailout loans may result in a cash crunch as early as next month, two people familiar with the country’s financial position said. Unless the 15 billion-euro ($17 billion) limit on short-term borrowing set by Greece’s troika of official creditors is raised, the government may run out of cash on Feb. 25, said one of the people, who asked not to be named because the figures are confidential. Three weeks ago, international officials reckoned Greece could hang on until mid-year.

• Merkel Says Greek Diplomatic Offensive Is Failing. German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that a diplomatic offensive by newly elected Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to ease his nation’s bailout-aid requirements is failing to win over converts. “I don’t think that the positions of the member states within the euro area with regard to Greece differ, at least in terms of substance,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin on Wednesday. Later in Paris, Tsipras was told by French President Francois Hollande that “respecting the rules is necessary for all, for France too, and it’s not always easy.” While Tsipras has retreated from demands for a writedown of Greece’s debt, yielding to virtually unanimous opposition in the 19-member bloc, his pledge to increase spending threatens to collide with conditions of aid commitments totaling 240 billion euros ($275 billion).

• Greeks Spooked by Debt Clashes Put Cash Under Bathroom Tiles. Withdrawals from Greek banks may have exceeded 15 billion euros ($17.2 billion) in the run-up to the elections that catapulted Alexis Tsipras and his anti-austerity Syriza party to power, including at least 11 billion euros in January, according to four bankers citing preliminary data. Tensions between the new government, which won on a platform of debt relief, and Greece’s creditors, including Germany, may keep up the pressure. “Talks with the creditors is going to be a protracted process so you can’t rule out more pressure on deposits,” said Wolfango Piccoli, managing director at Teneo Intelligence in London. “There is plenty of uncertainty and that can make depositors nervous again.”

• North Korea Rules Out Any Talks With U.S. ‘Gangster’ State. North Korea said it won’t agree to talks with the U.S. and is now focused on its ability to destroy the country with conventional, nuclear and cyber-warfare attacks. Kim Jong Un’s regime accused the U.S. of “inching closer to the stage of igniting a war of aggression” by stepping up its sanctions, holding military drills with South Korea and predicting the future collapse of the administration, the official Korean Central News Agency said, citing a statement from the National Defense Commission.  

• Rajan Says U.S. Must Accept Strong Dollar as Fed Normalizes. India’s central bank chief said the U.S. will have to accept a stronger exchange rate as the Federal Reserve turns toward raising interest rates for the first time since 2006. “The Fed will have to start at some point normalizing interest rates,” Raghuram Rajan, 52, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV India at the Reserve Bank of India headquarters in Mumbai. “Unless the Fed starts doing it, others aren’t going to follow suit. And the Fed, when it does that, will have to accept some appreciation of the dollar simply because it’s the first one out of the box.” He also warned Indian firms against borrowing in dollars, likening it to “Russian roulette.” 

• European Stocks Rise Third Day as Drugmakers, Greek Shares Gain. European stocks climbed for a third day, as an increase in health-care shares and Greek companies outweighed a drop in energy producers. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.5 percent to 372.1 at the close of trading, reversing losses of as much as 0.3 percent.

• Oil’s Surge to Bull Market Viewed as Temporary Bounce. Oil is back! Or maybe not. After suffering its longest rout in history, crude rebounded Tuesday, entering a bull market after soaring 24 percent from a six-year low reached in January. Behind the gain was speculation that curbs in investment will cut production. For all the optimism among traders, firms from Barclays Plc to Societe Generale SA and UBS Group AG say the rally is just temporary because less spending won’t eliminate a glut overnight. Instead of heading back to $100 a barrel, oil could fall as low as $30 because supply surpluses won’t disappear overnight, said Miswin Mahesh, a commodities analyst at Barclays. “We don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet,” Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS in Zurich, said by e-mail on Tuesday. “We expect U.S. commercial crude oil stocks to hit a new 84-year high on Wednesday, while U.S. oil production is likely to stay strong in the near term.”  

• No Bust Seen as Dakota Oil Firms Keep Staff Amid Price Drop. A plunge in global energy prices that has put some North Dakota oil rigs in a deep freeze has yet to chill the state’s hiring climate. By almost any metric -- the jobless rate, payrolls, claims for unemployment benefits -- there is scant evidence to indicate the state at the epicenter of the U.S. shale-oil boom is about to stumble.  

• Fed’s Mester Says Rates Should Rise ‘Soon’ Amid Labor Gains. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said interest rates should be raised “soon” amid mounting economic momentum, “significant improvement” in labor markets, and the boost consumers will get from cheaper fuel. The improvement in the world’s largest economy is likely to be sustained as headwinds that held back the expansion abate, she said today in a speech in Columbus, Ohio. Mester said she would be “comfortable with liftoff in the first half of this year” and she sees inflation gradually rising back to the Fed’s 2 percent target.

• Ralph Lauren(RL) Falls After Currency Woes Weigh on Its Forecast. Ralph Lauren Corp., the upscale apparel company known for Polo and other brands, fell the most in more than 16 years after third-quarter earnings trailed analysts’ estimates and the company cut its sales forecast. Net income dropped 9.3 percent to $215 million, or $2.41 a share, from about $237 million, or $2.57, a year earlier, the New York-based company said Wednesday in a statement. The average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg was $2.50. The company said revenue may gain about 4 percent this year, down from a previous projection of as much as 7 percent.

CNBC:

• Three-quarters of Americans are stressed about this. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• Mainstream Media Narrative Implodes As WTI Slumps Below $50. (graph)

• How The ISM Beat Expectations: It Assumed January Weather Was Worse Than The Polar Vortex. (graph)

• There Are No "Tailwinds". (graph)

• Something Has To Give.

• Goldman(GS) Cuts January Payrolls Forecast From 250K to 210K. 

• 2008 Deja Vu: GMAC Confirms SEC Probe Of Subprime Loans, Will "Investigate Itself".

• Massive Crude Inventory Build Sends WTI Crude Plunging Back Towards $50. (graph)

• Services PMI Worst New Order Growth Since Financial Crisis, ISM Weakest Employment Since Feb 2014. (graph)

• Impact Of China 0.5% RRR Cut Is Equivalent To RMB 630 Billion Liquidity Injection, Goldman Finds.

• The Layoffs Begin: ADP Misses, Lowest Since September As "Businesses In The Energy Industries Are Scaling Back Payrolls". (graph)

Business Insider:

• Former CIA deputy director: it will take 100,000 troops to destroy ISIS.

• Germany urges Greece to 'stand on its own feet'.

• RICH BERNSTEIN: Oil CEOs today sound like tech CEOs in 2000.

• Things are starting to get crazy in the global stock market. (graph)

• 7 reasons why Russia-backed separatists are winning in Ukraine.

Washington Post:

• Defense nominee Carter ‘inclined’ to provide U.S. arms to Ukraine. Ashton B. Carter, President Obama’s choice to become his fourth secretary of defense, said Wednesday that he was “very much inclined” to provide arms to Ukraine to fend off Russian-backed rebels, something the White House so far as resisted. “We need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves,” Carter said at his Senate confirmation hearing.

Reuters:

• Greece seeks ECB funds, Germany rejects austerity roll-back. Greece's new leftist government appealed to the European Central Bank on Wednesday to keep its banks afloat as it seeks to negotiate debt relief with its euro zone partners, but Germany rejected any roll-back of agreed austerity policies. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said after meeting ECB President Mario Draghi in Frankfurt he believed Athens could count on central bank support during the short period it would take to conclude talks with international lenders.

Die Welt:

• European Commission Worried About  Possible Greek Bank Run. European Commission is concerned that bank clients in Greece may start withdrawing funds in large volumes in coming days, citing people close to the commission.