Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Concerns, Global Growth Fears, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, REIT/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.49 +4.55%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.47 -.93%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.03 +1.42%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.84 -1.08%

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +21.98%

• Total Put/Call .94 -3.09%

• NYSE Arms 1.56 +46.40% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.81 +.09%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 666.0 +.31%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.13 -1.66%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.71 +.20%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.72 +2.17%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 381.95 +1.55%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.30 -.14%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 unch.

• TED Spread 25.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 146.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.94/Metric Tonne -.48%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.6 -.2 point
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.6 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.5 -.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +2 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Putin Warns of Extremist Threat to Russian State Stability. President Vladimir Putin told Russia’s police to guard against extremist threats to the state aimed at provoking civil conflict similar to the revolt in neighboring Ukraine. “Extremists poison society with the venom of their belligerent nationalism, intolerance and aggression,” Putin said at a meeting with Interior Ministry officials in Moscow on Wednesday. “We are well aware what this can lead to, given the example of our neighbor Ukraine.” 
• Euro Drops to 11-Year Low Before ECB Meeting as Growth Diverges. The euro slid to the weakest level since 2003 as reports showed Europe’s economic-growth outlook diverging from the U.S. as the European Central Bank prepares to add more monetary stimulus through bond purchases. The 19-nation currency fell for a fifth day as traders waited for the ECB to provide more details on its quantitative-easing strategy at a meeting Thursday. Services growth in the euro area fell short of analysts’ estimates last month. A gauge of the dollar rose as data showed U.S. service businesses expanded and American companies added more than 200,000 jobs for a 13th straight month. 
• Emerging-Market Stocks Retreat as Oil Decline Saps Energy Shares. Emerging-market stocks fell for a fourth day as OAO Gazprom led energy companies lower. The zloty weakened as Poland’s central bank announced an end to its monetary-easing cycle after cutting its main interest rate to a record low. The dollar-denominated RTS Index of Russian stocks slid the most among 93 primary equity gauges. Gazprom fell 3.1 percent in Moscow. The Ibovespa dropped to a three-week low after the leader of Brazil’s Senate rejected President Dilma Rousseff’s plan to unwind tax breaks. PetroChina Co. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. sank at least 1.6 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 1.7 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.1 percent to 975.49 at 11:21 a.m. in New York. 
• European Stocks Advance in Late-Day Jump With Lenders Rebounding. A bank rally helped push European equities higher after a two-day decline. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.8 percent to 390.61 at the close in London, with equities beginning a rally in the last two hours of trading. Standard Chartered Plc led a jump in lenders as it rose to its highest price since October. The broad benchmark gauge earlier slipped as much as 0.2 percent after an index tracking euro-area manufacturing and services increased less than forecast.
• Saudi Arabia to Keep Pumping as Much Oil as Customers Want. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, pledged to supply as much oil as its customers need as recovering demand helps rebalance the global market. The strategy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to defend its market share against higher-cost producers such as shale drillers will prove to be effective, Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said in Berlin on Wednesday. The kingdom will only cut output if customers refuse to buy its crude, which is unlikely because Saudi supply is the world’s most reliable, he said.  
• The U.S. Is Pumping Even More Oil and Storage Tanks Are Getting Filled to the Brim. The U.S. is pumping oil faster than at any time since 1972, and storage tanks are getting filled to the brim. U.S. oil production rose for the fourth consecutive week, to a rate of 9.3 million barrels a day, even as oil-drilling rigs are being idled at an unprecedented rate. U.S. inventories also rose, for the eighth consecutive week, jumping 2.4 percent to 444 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported today.
• The Fed's 2009 Transcripts Are Out. Read the transcripts from the Federal Open Market Committee's 2009 meetings.
• Will Tesla(TSLA) Ever Make Money? Sure, Elon Musk makes great cars, but investors are wondering when his company will turn a profit.

ZeroHedge:

• The Scariest Spreadheet In Fed Possession Revealed. (graph)
• On February 7, 2009 Bernanke Admitted What It Was All About.
• Ferguson Cop Cleared Of Civil Rights Violations.
• Meet Landlord Loans: You Too Can Be A Real Estate Speculator.
• Biggest Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Build In 14 Years. (graph)
• Despite Hard Data Collapse, US Services Surveys Point To Modest Bounce In February. (graph)
• ADP Employment Drops, Misses; Zandi Admits "Jobs Growth Slowing". (graph)

Business Insider:

• Read the angry emails Hillary Clinton's top aide sent to a bunch of reporters.
• Fed says wage pressures were moderate across the economy.
• Stratfor has 11 alarming predictions for the next decade.
• Report: Russia is practicing attack runs against NATO warships in the Black Sea.

Reuters:

• Euro zone rebuffs Spanish talk of new Greek bailout. Germany and the European Commission slapped down talk of a third financial rescue for Greece as premature, after Spain once again suggested on Wednesday that a new aid package for Athens was almost inevitable. Athens, which says it does not need a new aid program, averted a new crisis on Wednesday by successfully raising over 1 billion euros in short-term debt as planned but its long-term funding outlook appears increasingly uncertain.

El Pais:

• Juncker Says Crisis in Spain Not Over On Unemployment. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Jnuncker comments during interview. "With these unemployment figures and the high rate of youth unemployment in Spain, while things are improving we can't tell the people or ourselves that the crisis is over." "Tsipras still has to tell the Greek people that he won't be able to keep many promises made in his electoral campaign," he said. "France knows it has to improve, and it will," he said. "France has understood that sanctions are a possibility."

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.80%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -4.87% 2) Gaming -1.6% 3) Oil Tanker -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

•  AA, PANW, FAST, APAM, MIDD, LL, TNET, ANF, CENX, BOBE, VEEV, ES, TSRO, FISH, AVAV, EGL, HYH, ZLTQ, YUM, TSNU, GWW, CPL, SPLK, BIS and PSIX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BTU 2) ANF 3) XLY 4) MOS 5) XLF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CENX 2) BOBE 3) AA 4) GE 5) FAST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.40%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +.44% 2) HMOs +.43% 3) Medical Equipment +.06%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• W, ATHM, SWHC, AMBA, ANN, AEO, WBAI, CLDX, EXAS, AKRX and ICPT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RHT 2) AEO 3) VEEV 4) HRB 5) SWHC
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SWHC 2) BBY 3) AMBA 4) MCD 5) AEO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Russian Opposition in Despair After Nemtsov as Putin Era Endures. Russia’s liberal opposition is in despair after the Friday night slaying of Nemtsov in the Kremlin’s shadow. While the murder elicited international condemnation and sparked the largest opposition gathering since the protests of 2011-2012 against President Vladimir Putin’s rule, rank-and-file activists say the Russian leader looks stronger than ever.

• Japan Public Debt is Keeping BNP's Chief Credit Analyst Awake at Night. For most of her career, Mana Nakazora has taken a pre-dawn train to work regardless of whether she arrived home just hours earlier. Her colleagues describe BNP Paribas SA’s Tokyo head of investment research as a powerhouse, and she was Japan’s No. 1 bond picker from 2010 to 2012 and No. 2 for the last two years in Nikkei Veritas newspaper polls. Making it to the top in an industry whose corporate bond sales exceeded $70 billion last year can be tough.  

• Macau Analyst Who Predicted Stock Drop Says Worst Is Yet to Come. The worst is yet to come for Macau casinos after February gaming revenue plunged the most on record, according to one of the few analysts who correctly predicted the stocks would fall this year. Gaming revenue will keep sliding through mid-year and dividends will get cut as the cost of new capacity eats into free-cash flow, leaving share valuations too expensive, said Jamie Zhou, an analyst at Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. Zhou was one of just two analysts tracked by Bloomberg with sell ratings on Sands China Ltd. and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. when he started covering the shares in December.   

• Rajan Cuts India Rates in Unscheduled Move After Modi Budget. India’s central bank lowered interest rates in an unscheduled move for the second time this year, a sign of approval for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first full-year budget. Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the benchmark repurchase rate to 7.5 percent from 7.75 percent, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement on Wednesday. The RBI will seek to bring the inflation rate “to the mid-point” of the inflation target of 4 percent plus or minus 2 percent by the end of a two-year period starting in the fiscal year through March 2017, Rajan said.

• Asian Stocks Retreat on Yen as Aussie Bonds Decline. Asian stocks fell, dragging down the regional benchmark index from an almost six-month high, as a strengthening yen weighed on Japanese exporters. Australian bonds fell after economic growth data, while crude oil traded above $50 a barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4 percent by 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo, while Japan’s Topix lost 1 percent and Nissan Motor Co. sank 2.2 percent.

• Here's the Latest Sign the Oil-Price Plunge Is Hitting the Job Market. (graph) As investors prepare for the release of the February U.S. employment data on Friday, we're getting more inklings of how the shakeout in the oil industry will impact the jobs market, and it doesn't look great: Demand for workers in energy-related occupations is plunging. 

• Yellen Says Fed Seeks to Avert ‘Capture’ by Banks It Oversees. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, countering criticism from members of Congress, said the central bank is trying to avoid being too cozy with the Wall Street firms it supervises and wants to ensure that regulators aren’t afraid to confront the financial industry. “The risk of regulatory capture is something the Federal Reserve takes very seriously and works very hard to prevent,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for a speech in New York on Tuesday night. “It is important that anyone serving the Fed feel safe speaking up when they have concerns about bias toward industry, and that those concerns be addressed.”  

• Shelby Says He Will Seek Bipartisan Legislation Aimed at Fed. The head of the powerful Senate Banking Committee signaled he wants to work with two Democratic critics of the Federal Reserve to fashion legislation aimed at the Fed after a hearing in which lawmakers of both parties attacked the central bank’s record. “I do see some interests that might be put together hopefully in a legislative package,” Richard Shelby, Republican of Alabama, said Tuesday in a brief interview in Washington. “What we’re going to do is continue hearings and see what we can fashion or bring together.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Netanyahu’s Bet: Congress Will Emerge Dominant in Iran Debate. Israeli leader turns to lawmakers to toughen and broaden nuclear agreement. In appealing to U.S. lawmakers to steer away from the emerging international nuclear deal with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting he can use Congress to either circumvent the White House’s diplomacy or at least significantly toughen and broaden the terms of any deal. 

• Insurers’ Biggest Fear: A Health-Law Death Spiral. Supreme Court decision on tax credits could drive up premiums in some states. As the Supreme Court hears arguments on Wednesday in the latest challenge to the Affordable Care Act, health insurers are struggling to prepare for a decision that could unravel the marketplaces created by the law.

• Jeff Immelt’s Overhaul of GE(GE) Impeded by Falling Oil Prices. CEO’s rebuilding of General Electric still hasn’t satisfied many investors, and now there’s this oil business.

• Pro-Growth, Pro-Family Tax Reform. by Mike Lee and Marco Rubio. Cut the corporate rate to 25%.For individuals and families, reduce the current seven brackets to two: 15% and 35%. Six years after the Great Recession officially ended, most Americans can sense that the U.S. economy is still operating below its full potential. Far too many Americans remain unemployed, underemployed or stuck in jobs with stagnant wages and narrow horizons. Many are beginning to wonder: Is this the new normal? We don’t believe it is.

• The Clinton Rules. Foreign donors and private email show how Bill and Hillary work. Hillary Clinton hasn’t even begun her expected presidential candidacy, but already Americans are being reminded of the political entertainment they can expect. To wit, the normal rules of government ethics and transparency apply to everyone except Bill and Hillary.

Fox News:

• Ex-Iranian hostages agree with Bibi: Tehran can't be trusted. They dealt with the Iranian regime first-hand more than three decades ago, when it was founded in an act of war against the U.S., and several survivors of the hostage crisis say the idea of the U.S. negotiating with an unrepentant Tehran makes their blood boil.

CNBC:

• Western leaders hint at more Russian sanctions over Ukraine. (video) U.S. President Barack Obama and European leaders on Tuesday warned Russia that they were ready to step up sanctions if there were further violations of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, officials said. The threats came in statements issued after a video conference that brought together Obama and the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy, as well as the head of the European Council.

Zero Hedge:

• How Mario Draghi Is Putting Pensioners At Risk. (graph)

• Hubris Hangover? Stocks, Bonds, & Bullion All Red. (graph)

• As The Battle For Tikrit Begins, A Map Of Who Controls What.

• This Is What Happens When The Government Cracks Down On Subprime Auto Loan. (graph)

• Buffett On Europe: Germany Must Stop Greek Dog Peeing On Its Carpet. (video)

• In "Unprecedented Move" Nobel Peace Prize Chairman Demoted For Decision To Give Obama 2009 Award.

• Crude Parallels: A River Of Denials. (graph)

• Japanese Bonds & Stocks Drop As Services PMI Tumbles Into Contraction. (graph)

• A Match Made In Subprime Hell.

Business Insider:

• Target(TGT) is firing thousands of workers.

• The FAA wants to speed up the approval process for commercial drones.

• The SEC just dealt a 'critical' warning to pharmaceutical companies.

• Russia and Egypt just got even closer.

• The US has so much crude oil that it is running out of places to put it. (graph)

• Tesla(TSLA): We aren't a giant car company and could get crushed.

• US commander: There are 12,000 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.

• LUMBER LIQUIDATORS(LL): There is no guarantee our wood suppliers will play by the rules.

Quartz:

• The latest signs China’s trillions in debt are getting tricky to handle. The rate cuts highlight the underlying worry that money is dangerously scarce—and that insolvent companies could easily run out of cash. Here’s a breakdown of the problem:

Reuters:

• CBO: U.S. cash may last until November with no debt limit hike. The Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday that if the U.S. federal debt limit is not raised, the U.S. Treasury Department will exhaust all of its borrowing capacity and run out of cash by October or November, slightly later than a previous forecast.

Telegraph:

• Only mass default will end the world's addiction to debt. As global debt rises off the scale, creditors stand to take a huge hit in a threatened tsunami of defaults. 

• Eurozone faces first regional bankruptcy as debt debacle stalks Austria's Carinthia. Fitch has stripped Austria of its AAA rating, adding that 'within a short space of time the debt dynamics of Austria have deteriorated significantly'.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 +3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.50 +1.5 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANF)/1.16

• (AEO)/.34

• (BF/B)/.86

• (PETM)/1.38

• (TSL)/.13

• (CTRIP)/-.10

• (HRB)/-.13 

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST 

• The ADP Employment Change for February is estimated to rise to 219K versus 213K in January..

9:45 am EST

• Final Markit US Services PMI for February is estimated at 57.0 versus versus a prior estimate of 57.0.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 56.5 versus 56.7 in January.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +3,887,500 barrels versus a +8,427,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,762,500 barrels versus a -3,118,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -2,187,500 barrels versus a -2,711,000 barrel decline the prior week.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's George speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Eurozone Services PMI, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, UBS Consumer Conference, (FAST) Feb. sales release, (XOM) analyst meeting, (CAB) investor day and the (HON) investor conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Eurozone/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.94 +6.90%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.75 -.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.86 +.31%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.82 +1.86%

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -14.01%

• Total Put/Call .95 -5.94%

• NYSE Arms .98 -23.33% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.47 +1.15%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 660.0 +2.81%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.95 +2.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.67 +5.03%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.289 +2.14%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 375.86 +.46%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.46 +.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 24.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 144.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.24/Metric Tonne -.94%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.4 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.8 +3.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.2 -3.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 +4.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/medical/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long