Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,079.36 +.2%

• DJIA 17,663.54 +.1%

• NASDAQ 5,053.75 +.44%

• Russell 2000 1,161.86 -.36%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.39 unch.

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 108.99 -2.83% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,504.97 +.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,015.38 +.75%

• Russell 1000 Value 987.06 -.29%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 512.23 -1.65%

• Solactive US Cyclical 128.0 -.58%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,100.23 +.25%

• Transports 8,128.07 -2.02%

• Utilities 580.50 -2.34%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 104.08 -2.72%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 35.89 +.1%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,166.10 +1.17%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,042.98 +.75%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 233,530 -.41%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -94.0 -235

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 55.0 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 236,575 -5.80%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,676,033 +3.87%

• Total Put/Call .91 +18.18%

• OEX Put/Call 7.12 +849.33%

• ISE Sentiment 101.0 -7.34%

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +46.39%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.07 +4.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.58 -2.25%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.37 -4.49%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.81 -.55%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,870.67 +.72%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.717 Trillion +.68%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$.070 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 40.4 +16.2%

• AAII % Bears 20.6 -14.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 195 .61 +.98%

• Crude Oil 46.59 +4.46%

• Reformulated Gasoline 137.16 +5.80%

• Natural Gas 2.32 +1.53%

• Heating Oil 151.67 +4.28%

• Gold 1,141.40 -1.84%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 143.64 -3.36%

• Copper 231.75 -1.38%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 152.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 49.83 USD/Ton -3.47%

• Lumber 251.50 -3.64%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,067.53 +.86%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.8% -10.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1908 +6.88%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.52 +.19%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.7 -12.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.7 +10.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.5 +2.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/16
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 4.07 -39.07%

• US Dollar Index 97.0 -.08%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.64 -.88%

• Yield Curve 142.0 -3.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.15% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.451 Trillion -.27%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.0 unch.

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 265.0 -.66%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 19.05 +1.22%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 72.47 +1.73%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 159.55 -4.22%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.84 +1.91%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 799.60 -3.11%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 276.70 -5.81%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 122.65 +.53%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.53% +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 26.5 -5.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.25 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.47 -.95%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,130.0 +5.14%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 69.47 +.61%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 325.05 +.13%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 126.50 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $3.003 Trillion -.44%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,056.20 -.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 259,250 -4,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.76% -3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 417.40 -3.54%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 42.80 -.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.30% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.18/gallon -.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 728.0 -5.94%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 744.44 -1.03%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -26.67%

• Rail Freight Carloads 268,621 -2.37%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.2%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +3.9%

• Hospitals +3.5%

• Gaming +3.4%

• HMOs +3.1%

• Medical Equipment +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Homebuilders -3.6% 

• Road & Rail -5.4%

• Education -6.9%

• Gold & Silver -8.0%

• Coal -29.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)

• LOCK, RVNC, PNY, TREE, HSII, NTGR, MCRI, ABAX, NHTC, PBY, DMND, GIMO, ATHN, GNRC, INT, JBT, ABCB, LMAT, VCRA, HOT, ROCK, INVN, QSII, QDEL, SAH, ELLI, FBC, BAH, ECHO, IPGP, FDP, PFSI, LOPE and TPX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (49)

• FEIC, WBA, MD, LHO, WMK, PLCE, RUBI, CRUS, VFC, GHL, WEX, TMUS, CARB, RDN, CTS, NYCB, DORM, VECO, MSTR, HTLD, PGTI, DECK, LQ, BWLD, SAVE, EVER, CPLA, AKAM, YRCW, PLXS, TILE, SRCL, IBP, GNC, ADUS, MMSI, GRUB, FTNT, FSL, HURN, FCN, EROS, KODK, RCII, SKX, SAIA, STRP, P and RRTS

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Concerns, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Financial/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.26 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.81 -.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.82 -.37%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.25 -2.12%

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -38.81%

• Total Put/Call .87 +2.35%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 -5.11% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.40 -.26%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,131.0 +.557%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.32 -.73%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.06 +2.53%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 72.48 -2.61%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 324.99 -.74%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.65 +.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 26.5 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.25 +1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.89 +.28%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 142.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $49.83/Metric Tonne +.36%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.7 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.7 +7.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.50 +2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.53 +1.0 basis point
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 4.07 -.24

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -168 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• U.S. to Send First Troops to Syria to Combat Islamic State. The U.S. will intensify its military action in Syria, deploying fewer than 50 special operations forces inside the country for the first time to help coordinate the fight against Islamic State, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said. The new action represents an escalation of the U.S. fight against the terrorist group in Syria, where Russia has begun its own air campaign against rebels fighting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. U.S. officials have complained that the Russians have largely targeted moderate rebel forces instead of Islamic State militants. President Barack Obama has repeatedly said that local forces must lead the fight against Islamic State, with training and assistance from the U.S. A White House official, who asked not to be identified in advance of an announcement, said in an e-mail that the special operations forces would coordinate local ground forces and the U.S.-led coalition engaging with Islamic State.
• ICBC More Than Doubles Bad-Loan Provisions as Economy Cools. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest lender by assets, reported a 0.5 percent increase in quarterly profit from a year earlier as it more than doubled provisions for bad loans. Net income climbed to 72.7 billion yuan ($11.5 billion) in the three months ended Sept. 30, a Hong Kong exchange filing showed Friday. That was close to the 72.8 billion yuan average of three analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The lender set aside 19.3 billion yuan of provisions for bad loans in the quarter, more than double the amount a year earlier. “ICBC’s earnings growth in the fourth quarter may be even slower or they may even see a profit decline,” said Chen Xingyu, a Shanghai-based analyst at Phillip Securities Research. “The bad-loan situation will only deteriorate over the next year.”
• Europe Stocks Cap Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2009 Amid Earnings. European shares were little changed on the final day of trading in a month that has seen their strongest rally in six years. IAG SA slipped 2.5 percent after its 2015 forecast trailed analyst predictions. L’Oreal SA fell 4.6 percent on worse-than-projected sales, dragging a gauge of personal and household goods to the biggest drop among industry groups. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA lost 3.5 percent after posting a loss. BNP Paribas SA and Airbus Group SE added at least 1.8 percent after their profits topped estimates.
• Big Oil Faces Big Dividend Dilemma. (video)
• Sliding Inflation Expectations Lean Against Fed's Faith in Higher Prices. Officials say they need to be "reasonably confident" in the outlook for prices before raising rates. Results of two consumer surveys suggest expectations for inflation in the medium and long term are slipping. A monthly poll conducted by the University of Michigan showed U.S. households projected annual inflation will average 2.5 percent 5 years to 10 years from now, according to data released Friday. That matches the lowest on record in data going back to 1979.  
• These Are the Charts That Scare Wall Street. (graph) Breakevens that go bump in the night and other spooky things. Sometimes there are announcements that send chills down Wall Street's collective spine. Other times, it's a well-defined trend portending disaster or threatening to upend the status quo that inspires fright. With Halloween just around the corner, we asked some of Wall Street's brightest for the charts that are more terrifying than Freddy Krueger. This is what we got back. 
• Morgan Stanley(MS): The Grinch Could Ruin Christmas for Most Retailers. Consumers may have extra money, but they're not spending it. Morgan Stanley analysts aren't predicting a lot of cheer for retailers this holiday season. The bank sees holiday sales growth slowing this year despite an increase in the financial health of many consumers, according to analysts led by Kimberly Greenberger. In a note titled "The grinch could steal Christmas," they argue that while consumers will have plenty of extra pocket money this season, that won't necessarily translate into extra spending.
• Obamacare Premiums Jump, But Insurers Still Struggle for Profit. Many people shopping for health coverage this weekend on the websites created by Obamacare are going to see double-digit percentage increases in their premiums. That’s still not enough for some insurers. Anthem Inc. says there remain competitors in the government-run marketplace offering premiums that aren’t enough to profitably provide the coverage patients will require. Prices in some areas probably will have to climb in 2017 and even 2018 to reach levels that make sense, according to Chief Financial Officer Wayne Deveydt. Meantime, Anthem will sacrifice market share to keep its plans profitable, he said. “When you have fewer national enrollees and you have price points that we don’t believe are sustainable, we’ve just made a conscious decision we’re not going to chase it,” Deveydt told analysts on a conference call on Wednesday. 
• Ackman, and His $448-a-Share Call, Fall Flat in Valeant Defense. As the billionaire William Ackman spent some four hours Friday defending his outsize bet on Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., the rest of Wall Street dismissed his arguments and kept unloading shares of the besieged drug giant.

Fox News:

• RNC boss vows debate changes as GOP candidates threaten to go around party. (video) Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus is vowing to “reset” his party’s presidential debates in the wake of Wednesday’s controversial face-off -- but he still faces a possible revolt by frustrated candidates reportedly looking at taking power away from the party.

Zero Hedge: 

• Valeant(VRX) Loses $100 Again As Ackman Call Ends, Citron Warns "Dirtier Than Anyone Has Reported".
• Dear Europe: Here's Who You Can Blame For Soaring Home Prices. (graph)
• WTI Extends Gains After US Oil Rig Count Plunges For 9th Week. (graph)
• Puerto Rico Bond Yields Hit Record Highs: Jack Lew Was Wrong Again. (graph)
• One Chart That Explains The Stupidity Of Congress' SPR Plan. (graph)
• Chicago PMI Soars To Highest Since January With 7-Sigma Beat On Huge Inventory Build. (graph)
• Recovery Wrecked: American Employee Compensation Dropped In September For The First Time Since July 2013. (graph)
• Savings Rate Rises To Highest Since April As Spending, Income Growth Drops. (graph)

Reuters:

• Chevron(CVX) slashes 2016 budget to weather low oil prices. Chevron Corp, the second-largest U.S.-based oil producer, slashed its 2016 capital budget by 25 percent and said it would lay off roughly 10 percent of its workforce, one of the most-drastic reactions to date to the plunge in crude prices CLc1. Chevron said on Friday it plans to spend between $25 billion to $28 billion next year and expects to further slash spending in 2017 and 2018 as well, an acknowledgment that oil prices are not expected to rise at all in the near future. The San Ramon, California-based company also said it would lay off 6,000 to 7,000 workers as part of the cuts.

Telegraph:

• Another recession is coming - the only question is how bad. Governments must end today's destructive dependency on central banks, which will lead to financial bust. 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.18%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -3.26% 2) Banks -1.26% 3) Alt Energy -1.10%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AAN, DGI, NYCB, SCTY, RKUS, KEY, FRGI, AF, STRP, CPSI, VRX, PEBO, STRZA, CVS, OMCL, SAM, CACC, EA, RY, SEDG, ECOL, RGA, OUTR, BGG, SCSC, CPT, DRII, MOH, IMS, UVE, PZZA, RGA, FRGI and BOFI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EA 2) CVS 3) OCN 4) SCTY 5) EPD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SCTY 2) BTU 3) CTRL 4) RKUS 5) DGI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.37%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +3.71% 2) Gaming +1.51% 3) Steel +1.44%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CRAY, YRCW, FLDM, HPY, DECK, IMPV, LNKD, EXPE, FSLR, THRM, FIX, GNC, NUS, TRMB, IMMR, ABBV, ARII, ON, GBX, FIX, GB, GNC, RRTS, CATM, STE, ABMD, AXL, NSR, IM, IDTI and FCN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MDR 2) KEY 3) KSS 4) LNKD 5) CVS
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EXPE 2) LNKD 3) YRCW 4) HON 5) EMC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sector Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 44.8% of Issues Advancing, 51.9% Declining
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 37.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.2
• Vix 14.8
• Total Put/Call .88
• TRIN/Arms 1.30