Wednesday, January 06, 2016

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Outperformers: 
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.6% 2) Airlines +.2% 3) Tobacco -.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • KANG, MSM, MBLY, MXL and TASR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) EMR 2) CAG 3) SAVE 4) XLU 5) TASR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) LMT 2) TASR 3) ORCL 4) VRX 5) AAL
Charts: 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:  
  • North Korea Quake Near Nuclear Site Was Artificial, Says South. A 5.1-magnitude earthquake detected near North Korea’s nuclear test site appears to have been artificial, according to South Korea’s meteorological service, raising the prospect the isolated regime tested a nuclear device. The quake had a depth of ten kilometers, the U.S. Geological Survey said, while Chinese earthquake networks put it at zero. It was centered 19 kilometers from Sungjibaegam. A 4.9-magnitude earthquake in a similar location was recorded before confirmation of North Korea’s third nuclear test in 2013. The regime in Pyongyang has given notice that it will make an important announcement at midday North Korea time, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said. The government in Seoul is convening an emergency meeting, according to an official at the presidential office. South Korea’s Kospi index extended losses to 0.6 percent, while the won declined 0.6 percent against the dollar. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of the region’s stocks dropped 0.7 percent.
  • Offshore Yuan Sinks to 5-Year Low as PBOC Fixing Cut for 7th DayChina’s yuan sank to a five-year low in offshore trading after the central bank lowered its reference rate for the seventh day in a row. The currency fell 0.30 percent to 6.6649 a dollar as of 9:56 a.m. in Hong Kong’s freely traded market, reversing initial gains, after the People’s Bank of China cut its daily fixing by 0.22 percent to the weakest level since April 2011. That’s 1.9 percent weaker than the onshore exchange rate, which declined 0.33 percent to 6.5374.
  • China Vanke Hong Kong Shares Plunge After Resuming Trading. China Vanke Co., the developer whose shares were halted last month amid a battle for control with its largest shareholder, tumbled the most in a year-and-a-half after resuming trading in Hong Kong on Wednesday. The shares dropped as much as 14 percent, the most since June 26, 2014, and were 12 percent lower at HK$19.90 as of 9:36 a.m. local time. The stock of China’s largest publicly traded developer traded on the Shenzhen stock exchange will remain suspended pending an asset restructuring and share sale.
  • China Excavator Demand to Stay Stagnant This Year, Kobe CEO Says. China’s demand for excavators will remain stagnant this year after sales almost halved in 2015 as its slowing economy cooled construction spending, according to Kobe Steel Ltd., owner of a major Japanese supplier. “We shouldn’t assume demand for construction machinery will come back for another year, ” Chief Executive Officer Hiroya Kawasaki said Tuesday in an interview at a steel industry group meeting in Tokyo, adding a recovery isn’t likely until 2017. “We have to have a negative view on the market.”
  • Hong Kong's Gravity-Defying Property Gains May Reverse in 2016. The Hong Kong property market’s gravity-defying climb to records may be set for a reversal this year. Hong Kong is forecast to overtake Singapore as the weakest-performing luxury residential market, with prime property prices declining an estimated 5 percent this year,  according to a report by Knight Frank LLP of 10 global cities that was released Tuesday. Of the 10 cities analyzed, Hong Kong, Singapore and Paris are the three expected to see price declines this year. “A number of new developments are due to come to the market in 2016,” according to the report. “This new supply coupled with a strengthening HK Dollar (pegged to the US Dollar) will see prime prices soften.
  • Apple(AAPL) Suppliers Drop in Asia After IPhone Output Cut ReportApple Inc. suppliers led by Sharp Corp. and Pegatron Corp. fell after Nikkei Asian Review reported the U.S. company would reduce the first quarter output of its latest iPhones by about 30 percent. Sharp dropped 4.1 percent as of 10:21 a.m. in Tokyo and Japan Display Inc. slumped 3.2 percent. The Japanese companies both supply screens for Apple devices. Pegatron, which assembles iPhones, fell as much as 5.6 percent in Taipei. Inventories of the new iPhones, which debuted in September, have piled up at retailers in China and Europe amid lackluster sales as an increase in the dollar against emerging markets currencies makes the device more expensive in those countries, Nikkei reported.  
  • Yen's New Year Rally Driven by China Nerves Spurring Haven Flows. The yen has gained against all of its major peers since the start of the year as a rout in Chinese stock markets sparked demand for safer assets, and traders are betting that trend will continue. The Japanese currency gained 0.9 percent against the dollar since Dec. 31, the third year in a row that it started off climbing against the dollar. Options showed sentiment favoring the yen over the dollar by about the most in more than two weeks, based on one-month risk reversals. 
  • Asian Stocks Decline as Weak Yuan Fix Weighs on Risk Appetite. Asian stocks fell for a third day after China set a weaker fix for the yuan and Apple Inc. suppliers tumbled on a report it may cut production. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.9 percent to 127.24 as of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo, with technology companies posting the largest declines
  • Credit Market Turmoil Could Sour Outlook for U.S. PE-Backed IPOs. You can add one more factor to the reasons why U.S. private equity-backed initial public offerings have had a shabby few months: the convulsing junk bond market. Languishing commodities prices and turmoil in emerging markets had already prompted a selloff in high-yield credit, even before the markets could fully react to the impact of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in mid-December. In 2015, U.S. junk debt registered its first annual loss since 2008, down 4.64 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Indexes. That could be a harbinger for new equity offerings, and not an auspicious one
  • Carmakers Enter 2016 Facing Slower Growth After Record U.S. Year. With record U.S. vehicle sales now on the books for 2015, automakers are propelling into the new year with a sense that they’ll have to work harder to see more growth ahead. Carmakers dialed up discounts in 2015’s second half to win market share as Americans surged into showrooms amid cheap gasoline and a growing job base. The gambit paid off: Full-year sales beat the standard set 15 years ago, rising 5.7 percent to 17.5 million cars and light trucks. Analysts and executives alike project another record this year -- although with slower growth -- provided that the dealmaking keeps pace.
Wall Street Journal: 
Fox News:
  • Obama's gun control actions open legal can of worms. (video) President Obama’s executive action to expand gun sale background checks has opened up a legal can of worms, specifically the president’s bid to broaden the definition of who’s a dealer -- and therefore must get a license and conduct background checks. Under current federal law passed by Congress, only federally licensed dealers must conduct background checks on buyers. The law does not specify whether this applies to online sales and other areas -- so those selling or trading guns on websites or in informal settings such as flea markets often don’t register.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
  • Fears mount over rise of sovereign-backed corporate debt. More than $800bn of emerging market sovereign debt is being camouflaged by the growing use of bonds that offer implicit state backing without always appearing on government balance sheets, according to new research. The stock of so-called quasi-sovereign bonds issued in dollars and other hard currencies by emerging markets has risen sharply in the past 12 months to overtake that of all external emerging market sovereign debt by the end of 2015.
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 141.75 +2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 73.0 -2.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.43 -.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.06%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.07%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
  • (MON)/-.27
  • (RECN)/.24
  • (MSM)/.87
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • ADP Employment Change for December is estimated to fall to 198K versus 217K in November.
8:30 am EST:
  • The Trade Deficit for November is estimated to widen to -$44.0B versus -$43.89B in October.
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Services PMI for December is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 53.7 in November.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for December is estimated to rise to 56.0 versus 55.9 in November.
  • Factory Orders for November are estimated to fall by -.2% versus a +1.5% gain in October.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +654,550 barrels versus a +2,629,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,827,270 barrels versus a +925,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +1,241,820 barrels versus a +1,795,000 barrel gain prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.22% versus a +1.3% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • FOMC Minutes from Dec. 15-16 meeting released.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Services PMI, Australia Trade Balance, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Goldman Energy Conference and CES 2016 could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Central Bank Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, REIT/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Sightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.60 -5.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.63 -1.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.28 -3.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.65 -1.89%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -2.47%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -6.54%
  • NYSE Arms 1.60 +18.51% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.35 -.08%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,609.0 -2.9%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.13 -3.14%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.62 +1.39%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.55 -2.72%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 354.48 -2.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.9 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 41.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.55 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% +4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 122.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $43.11/Metric Tonne -2.84%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -34.8 -.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.2 -3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.10 -2.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% unch.
  • 48.9% chance of next Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 54.7% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -205 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China Battles to Shore Up World's Priciest Stock Market: Chart. (video) Chinese authorities are contending with sky-high valuations as they revive support for the nation’s tumbling equity market. Government funds purchased local stocks on Tuesday after a plunge on Monday triggered a share halt, according to people familiar with the matter. Even after the drop, the median stock on mainland exchanges trades at about 65 times earnings -- more than three times higher than the U.S.’s multiple of 19. "Although they would want to support the stock market, they should have realized that it’s impossible," Stephen Ma, senior portfolio manager at LGM Investments Ltd., said in Hong Kong.  
  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch: The Shanghai Composite Will Plummet by Nearly 30% in 2016. This time is not different. The early January blues for Chinese stocks will persist through 2016, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which expects the Shanghai Composite index to end the year down roughly 27 percent, at about 2,600. David Cui, head of China equity strategy, is known to be bearish on the world's second-largest economy—which is to say that he's less sanguine than most of his peers about the consequences of unwinding leverage that has mounted in a short period of time. For China—which has enjoyed a rapid expansion of debt relative to the size of its economy—this time will not be different, Cui contended in a note.
  • Dragon Tail Risk for World Economy on Higher Fear of China Slump. It took exactly one trading day in 2016 for the year’s first Black Swan to appear on the horizon. As Monday’s 7 percent slide in China’s CSI 300 Index triggered a worldwide rout in equities, UBS Group AG reminded clients of its December analysis of what a slump in the world’s second-largest economy would imply for global growth. The worst-case scenario of the Swiss  bank’s economists and strategists is for the Chinese economy to grow just 4 percent this year rather than the 6.2 percent they actually predict.
  • China's Terrible Start to 2016 Has Beijing Fighting Market Fires. (video) China has started 2016 in fire-fighting mode. After three months of relative calm in the nation’s $6.5 trillion stock market, a 7 percent rout to open the new year prompted government funds to prop up share prices on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter. The central bank injected the most cash since September into the financial system to keep a lid on borrowing costs, while the monetary authority was also said to intervene in the currency market to prevent excessive volatility. With Chinese shares and the yuan posting their worst starts to a year in at least two decades, the ruling Communist Party is being forced to scale back efforts to let markets have more sway in the world’s second-largest economy.  
  • Dassault Business Jet Orders Tumble on Russia, Brazil Slumps. Dassault Aviation SA said sales of its Falcon business jets tumbled 50 percent last year, hurt by slumping demand from once buoyant markets including Russia and Brazil. The French company won orders for 45 corporate jets in 2015, half the previous year’s total, it said Tuesday, sending the stock down the most in 4 1/2 months. The tally was just 25 planes factoring in the cancellation of a contract for 20 Falcons previously placed by U.S. fractional-ownership specialist NetJets inc. Sales were impacted by the economic environment, “especially in emerging countries,” Paris-based Dassault said. Some 55 new Falcons were delivered, 10 fewer than anticipated, it said, reflecting “the weakening of the order intake.”
  • VW Shares Tumble on U.S. Taking Hard Line in Diesel Scandal. (video) Volkswagen AG fell the most in two months after the U.S. government filed a lawsuit seeking penalties as high as $80 billion -- more than the company is worth -- and faulted the German carmaker for a lack of progress fixing cars with rigged engines. Chief Executive Officer Matthias Mueller and Herbert Diess, head of the VW brand, will visit the U.S. for the first time since the scandal broke in September. Diess will work to repair the brand’s tarnished image with appearances at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this week and at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit starting Sunday. Mueller is set to meet politicians and possibly other officials next week, though his schedule hasn’t been published.
  • Yen Benefits as Stock-Market Losses Drive Appetite for Havens. The yen advanced against 15 of its 16 major counterparts as stock markets struggled to shrug off Monday’s rout, spurring demand for haven investments. Japan’s currency surged the most against the Swedish krona and the New Zealand dollar and climbed to a nine-month high versus the euro even as China moved to support its equities market. The Asian nation’s CSI 300 Index eked out a gain, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed the day higher.
  • European Stocks Reverse Early Gains on China, Middle East Worry. (video) European stocks advanced, recovering some of the session’s earlier gains, after yesterday’s worst start to a year. Commodity producers posted the biggest gains among Stoxx Europe 600 Index groups. Glencore Plc and ArcelorMittal added at least 3.5 percent, helping send the regional benchmark up 0.6 percent at the close of trading. It rallied as much as 1.1 percent in the first ten minutes of trading, and then fell as much as 0.5 percent in intraday trading. The Stoxx 600 tumbled the most in a month yesterday as a selloff in China reignited concern that a slowdown there will hamper global recovery.
  • This Time Mideast Tensions Are Bad News for Oil. At almost any other time, an escalating diplomatic conflict between OPEC members Iran and Saudi Arabia would mean a spike in oil prices. That the rally this time couldn’t be sustained shows just how abnormal things are in the oil market. Brent crude is little changed this week as a global supply glut and the slowest Chinese growth in a generation trumped mounting strife between the nations on either side of the world’s busiest waterway for oil tankers.
  • Baltic Dry Ship Index Tumbles to Fresh Record Amid China Turmoil. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of the cost of transporting commodities, plunged to a record amid signs of slowing economic growth in China that’s also hurting the nation’s stock market. The index retreated 1.1 percent to 468 points, tumbling below a previous record low set in December. Rates declined for all except one of the vessel types monitored. China moved to support its sinking stock market after a $590 billion sell off as state-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled a selling ban on major investors will remain beyond this week’s expiration date, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Fed Playing Whac-A-Mole Faces Limits in Hammering Asset Bubbles. A seasoned Federal Reserve policy maker likened the central bank’s effort to prevent financial bubbles to playing a game of Whac-A-Mole: It can tamp down excessive risk-taking in one area only to see it pop up in another. What’s more, the potentially dangerous speculative activity has a tendency to shift outside the regulated banking industry to places where the Fed has less oversight and control, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told the American Economic Association’s annual conference.
  • Nissan Leads December Sales as Ford, GM Fall Short of Estimates. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, Ford and General Motors ended 2015 with December sales gains that, while lower than analysts predicted, did little to dispel the idea the year was one for the record books. Automakers rode a wave of demand for light trucks as gasoline prices hovered at about $2 a gallon. Fiat Chrysler and Toyota Motor Corp. each posted increases of at least 11 percent, while Nissan Motor Co. led with a 19 percent jump. Shares of Ford and GM fell after they failed to make the gains of at least 10 percent analysts predicted.
Barron's:
  • Hong Kong Retail Sales To Record Worst Slump Since 2003 SARS. Hong Kong retail sales is on track to record 3% fall in 2015, the worst since the SARS epidemic in 2003. In November, retail sales in Hong Kong fell 7.8%, worse than the 6.4% decline expected by the street. Hong Kong’s retail stocks retreated today. Watch retailer Hengdeli (3389.Hong Kong) dropped 2.8%, jewelry retailers Luk Fook (590.Hong Kong) and Chow Sang Sang (116.Hong Kong) fell 1.6% and 1.7% respectively.
Zero Hedge:
Thrillist Health:
Global Times:
  • China Rail freight posts record drop. Rail freight volume in China last year declined by a record amount, Beijing-based financial news site caixin.com reported Tuesday, citing data obtained from the national railway administrator. Rail freight movements fell 10.53 percent year-on-year to 3.4 billion tons, caixin.com noted, citing data from the National Railway Administration. Since China Railway Corp, a spin-off from the now defunct railway ministry, was established in 2012, rail cargo movements have been dropping, media reports said. However, the 2015 volume was roughly the same as that six years earlier, when rail freight data was first published. Experts on railway transport said they weren't surprised by the decline in rail cargo levels, which used to be considered an important indicator of the country's overall economic growth.
Tasnim News Agency:
  • Iran’s 2nd Underground “Missile City” Unveiled. (pic) Pictures from an underground missile facility of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) were released on Tuesday, after Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani paid a visit to the base. Around 3 months after the IRGC Aerospace Force broadcast footage from a tunnel dug deep in the ground and filled with numerous ballistic missiles, photos of another missile city were made public on Tuesday. Seen among the gear stored in a seemingly impregnable mountain base are the country’s “Emad” long-range ballistic missiles on their launch vehicles parked along an underground tunnel.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Underperformers: 
  • 1) Oil Tankers -4.1% 2) Oil Service -2.5% 3) Alt Energy -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • FIT, SPB, XLRN, AKBA, CFMS, BCC, BBW, MBLY, RLGY, HELE, CPK, LAD, UBIO, PAG, BPY, ACHC, TOT, HA, RUN, AXL, SYNA, QSR, LIVN, COF and TLP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 
  • 1) XLNX 2) OIH 3) BXLT 4) GT 5) DXJ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 
  • 1) VRSN 2) NOV 3) JWN 4) PBR 5) FIT
Charts: