Monday, January 25, 2016

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +2.2% 2) Gaming +.8% 3) Telecom +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TYC, CRAY, ANFI, DBD, WPZ and ETE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SSYS 2) SNDK 3) COH 4) OPK 5) NUGT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) INTC 2) WYNN 3) MCD 4) ORLY 5) TYC
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:  
  • Offshore Yuan Advances as Xinhua Claims Short Sellers Will Lose. The offshore yuan rose for the first time in five days after China stepped up verbal defense of its currency to ward off speculators betting on depreciation. Those entering short positions in the yuan are expected to "suffer huge losses" as Chinese policy makers will take measures to stabilize the exchange rate, according to a commentary on Saturday by the official Xinhua News Agency. Yuan stability is of "paramount importance" as the central bank is refraining from cutting banks’ reserve requirements because such a move could weaken the currency, Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong, wrote in a note Monday.
  • China Bears Descend on Alibaba(BABA) as Investors Fret About Economy. U.S. short sellers have pushed bets against Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to the highest in more than 14 months on concern that China’s deepest economic slowdown since 1990 will only get worse. Short interest in China’s biggest online retailer surged to 7.5 percent of shares outstanding on Jan. 21, the highest since November 2014, according to data compiled by Markit and Bloomberg. That is more than double from a Dec. 1 low. Bearish bets on rival JD.com Inc. have hovered around 2 percent since last month. Pessimists are once again taking aim at Alibaba -- a bellwether for U.S. investor sentiment on China -- as mainland stocks entered a bear market last week. Those wagers are already starting to pay off as a selloff since the start of the year sent the American depositary receipts of Alibaba down more than 13 percent.
  • Foreign Investors Bail on Russian Stocks. International investors are exiting their investments in some of the most liquid Russian companies as soaring volatility in the country’s stocks and currency push them to turn to less risky assets. They are getting out of Russian stocks faster than local traders are selling shares on the Moscow Exchange, causing the valuation gap between onshore and offshore-traded equities to narrow to levels not seen in as long as a year. The asset dump comes after oil, the country’s main source of revenue, plunged to a 12-year low last week and the ruble retreated the most among developing-nation peers.
  • Kuroda in Davos Gives No Hint of BOJ Appetite to Expand Stimulus. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has preserved his capacity to surprise the market when his policy board meets this week after using his trip to Davos to play down the impact of recent turbulence on Japan’s economy. "At this stage, we don’t think the current market situation has been affecting corporate behavior unduly," he said in an interview with Bloomberg in the Swiss mountain resort. "But, as I said, the market is the market, and markets could affect the real economy -- so we carefully watch." Kuroda, 71, was speaking ahead of what could be an agonizing decision about whether to add to the central bank’s record asset-purchase program. Waning inflation expectations, sliding oil prices and a reversal in the yen’s declines have put pressure on the BOJ to do more. Even so, some analysts question how much impact a move would have now and others suggest Kuroda has only one more shot in his monetary arsenal and say he should save it.
  • Asia Stocks Extend Global Rebound as Japan, Material Shares Rise. Asian stocks extended the rally that sent global equities to their biggest gain in 3 1/2 years as Japanese shares and materials companies climbed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent to 119.07 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo, with materials and health-care shares leading the advance. Japan’s Topix index climbed 1.1 percent as markets across the region extended gains that began after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled it may boost economic support. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who decides on policy on Jan. 29, played down the impact of recent market gyrations on his economy, while traders are predicting the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates when it also meets this week.
  • Japan Crude Oil Imports Plunge to Lowest Since 1988. Japan’s crude oil imports last year fell to the lowest level since 1988 as demand weakens amid a declining population and more efficient vehicles. The world’s third-biggest economy imported 195.5 million kiloliters of oil, or about 3.37 million barrels a day in 2015, a 2.3 percent drop from the previous year, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance on Monday. That’s the lowest since 1988 when the nation imported 192.2 million kiloliters, data from the ministry shows
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bearish Oil Bets Before Rebound From 12-Year Low. Speculators’ short position in WTI shrank 8.4 percent in the week ended Jan. 19, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Their net-long position increased 17 percent.
  • What's Worrying the Davos Elite? Plenty. A polarized U.S. presidential race; question marks over China’s economic management; and a once-dominant German chancellor suddenly under threat. Those were the flash points that dominated last week’s annual gathering of the World Economic Forum as executives, investors and policy makers fretted about the lack of leadership in a world beset by multiple crises. With the global economy already slowing and financial markets whipsawing, the risk is that an otherwise manageable set of challenges could cascade out of control without a firmer hand from governments.
  • Why Robots Mean Interest Rates Could Go Even Lower In The Future. If robots rise, interest rates will fall. That was the assumption of delegates at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, as revolutions in automation and artificial intelligence reshape how economies work. The argument goes like this: As machines become more and more advanced, many workers will lose their jobs and others will see their wages fall. New technology will also increase the chances of a 1990s-style jump in productivity. Those forces will combine to restrain prices across the world economy, meaning that the era of slow inflation now challenging central bankers may only prove a sign of things to come.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects Shrink. Plummeting prices and U.S.-led sanctions raise questions about Russian oil’s capacity to continue underwriting Putin’s global ambitions. In the frosty swamplands of West Siberia, the drilling rigs of oil giant OAO Lukoil are helping raise Russia’s oil output to its highest levels since the breakup of the Soviet Union a quarter century ago.
  • Time to Say Goodbye to Long Bull Market? U.S. stocks are flashing lots of bearish signs; investors aren’t panicking
  • Asset Managers Are Hard Hit. Low interest rates, rising competition and market swoon press industry.
  • The Climate Snow Job. A blizzard! The hottest year ever! More signs that global warming and its extreme effects are beyond debate, right? Not even close. An East Coast blizzard howling, global temperatures peaking, the desert Southwest flooding, drought-stricken California drying up—surely there’s a common thread tying together this “extreme” weather. There is. But it has little to do with what recent headlines have been saying about the hottest year ever. It is called business as usual.
  • Trump Laid Out His Playbook 30 Years Ago. His presidential campaign is ‘The Art of the Deal’ in action. “I play to people’s fantasies” and a “little hyperbole never hurts.” Mr. Trump has proposed a 2,000-mile-long wall at the Mexican border, a “deportation force” to expel an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants, and a ban on all noncitizen Muslims entering the country. Those pledges represent the extreme wish-list items of Mr. Trump’s most ardent fans. They are also completely unrealistic.
CNBC:
  • Buckle up! This economic doomsayer sees plenty more volatility. The stock market may be taking a breather from its big fall — the S&P 500 was up about 1.5 percent on Jan. 22 — but one economist thinks that we're going to see plenty more volatility in the next few months and another big correction in about two years.
MarketWatch:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • More holes than fingers? Beijing struggles to plug capital flight. As a slick slide presentation runs for the well-heeled investors jammed into the banqueting hall of Shanghai's Renaissance Yangtze Hotel, an image flashes up of a grinning Chinese man pushing a wheelbarrow full of cash into Europe. Another slide features a car bearing a Chinese flag preparing to drive into a pit. For wealthy Chinese, desperate to avoid further falls in a currency that has shed 6 percent against the dollar since August, the message is clear. "The yuan will keep depreciating as time goes by, so we should swap the money we have in hand into tangible assets," Li Xiaodong, chairman of Canaan Capital, tells his audience, while exhorting them to pull their money out of China while the going is still good and pour it into property in Spain and Portugal.
Financial Times:
  • India’s optimism blurred by economic gloom. Arun Jaitley should have been in a bullish mood this month as he gathered a dozen economists to chew over India’s buoyant prospects. However, instead of savouring the start of a golden period of expansion, the finance minister listened as they warned glumly that dark forces were set to derail India’s renaissance before it had really begun.
  • US junk-rated energy debt hits two-decade low. The value of debt issued by junk-rated US energy companies has plummeted to the lowest level for more than two decades, sending a warning signal about the outlook for the North American oil industry.
Telegraph: 
Slovenian Press Agency STA:
  • ECB's Nouy Says Property Loans May Cause Problems for Banks. Real estate mortgages a "possible source of difficulties" for European banks, Daniele Nouy, chair of European Central Bank's Supervisory Board, says in interview. 
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +1.0% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.0 -2.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.0 -1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.39 +.11%.  
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 
  • (DHI)/.41
  • (HAL)/.24
  • (KMB)/1.43
  • (MCD)/1.23
  • (PETS)/.24
  • (ASH)/1.39
  • (BXS)/.37
  • (CR)/1.11
  • (GGG)/.78
  • (RMBS)/.15
  • (SANM)/.58
  • (STLD)/.07
  • (SWFT)/.47
  • (ZION)/.42
Economic Releases 
9:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for January is estimated to rise to -14.0 versus -20.1 in December. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German IFO data could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as earnings outlook concerns, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and emerging market currency fears offset a commodities bounce, technical buying and central bank hopes
. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China, Iran Agree to Expand Trade to $600 Billion in a Decade. China and Iran mapped out a wide-ranging 25-year plan to broaden relations and expand trade during the first visit by a Chinese leader to the Islamic republic in 14 years. President Xi Jinping met with his counterpart Hassan Rouhani on Saturday, a week after the lifting of international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. The Chinese leader is the first head of state of the six-country bloc that negotiated the historic deal to visit Iran. Rouhani said the meeting marked "the beginning of an important era" in Iran-China relations, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported. The visit was the first by a Chinese president in 14 years, official Iranian media reported. "Today we discussed the strategic relationship between both countries, setting up a comprehensive 25-year plan and also promoting bilateral relations of up to $600 billion over the next 10 years," Rouhani said.
  • Currency Traders Prepare for More Turmoil Ahead of Fed, BOJ Meetings. For currency traders who’ve been battered by increased volatility, next week may turn out to be the moment of truth. The yen, a traditional haven, retreated from the biggest two-week rally since mid-2013 on speculation the Bank of Japan will increase stimulus on Jan. 28-29 to revive inflation. The dollar strengthened for a fourth week before the Federal Reserve meets Jan. 26-27 to consider follow-on policy after raising interest rates last month for the first time in almost a decade.
  • Canada in Shock as Youth Held in Four Slayings at School, Home. Four people were killed and seven injured in a shooting at a school in rural Saskatchewan, leaving Canadian officials stunned after one of the deadliest such attacks in the country in almost three decades. The incident was “unspeakably horrible” and “unimaginable,” Premier Brad Wall said Saturday at a briefing in Regina, the provincial capital. An investigation is continuing, and the province’s social services department is providing help for those affected, according to Wall, who said he will travel to the town of La Loche to help with the response. 
  • Hong Kong's Chan Says City's Economic Growth to Slow From 2015. Hong Kong is expected to grow at a slower pace this year than in 2015 as the city’s economy is constrained by difficulties in its exports sector and lower spending by visiting tourists, according to the city’s top financial services official. “Growth rate will be worse than last year,” K.C. Chan, Hong Kong’s secretary for financial services and the treasury, said in an interview with Commercial Radio Hong Kong on Saturday. “Our currency is expensive and economies in surrounding markets are starting to slow, so it’s clear that downward pressure on the economy is huge.” 
  • Portuguese Voters Head to Polls to Pick Country's Next President. Portuguese voters will cast their ballots on Sunday to pick the country’s next president, with former Social Democrat leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa ahead in the most recent opinion polls. Voting begins at 8 a.m. and ends at 7 p.m. in mainland Portugal. Partial results and exit polls will be released from 8 p.m. The latest opinion polls published by broadcaster RTP and by newspapers Expresso, Jornal de Negocios and Publico indicated Rebelo de Sousa, 67, may take more than half of the vote. That means the law professor and television commentator could become president without having to face a second round. Antonio Sampaio da Novoa, who is backed by some Socialists, had as much as 22.6 percent support in the Jornal survey.
  • Birinyi More Worried About Markets Than Any Time Since 2009. (video) The difficulty of forecasting outcomes in places like China has left Laszlo Birinyi more worried about stocks than he’s been since 2009, when their recovery from the financial crisis was just beginning. The 72-year-old investor says it’s easy to see why global equities are off to such a bad start -- falling oil, tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China’s equity selloff, and concern over Apple Inc.’s supply chain. The problem is predicting how they’ll turn out since most defy fundamental analysis.
  • Einhorn’s Greenlight Fund Shows Bets Against Amazon(AMZN), Netflix(NFLX). Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn is betting against popular growth stocks Amazon.com Inc. and Netflix Inc. The positions were disclosed to clients this week at the firm’s annual meeting, according to a copy of the presentation obtained by Bloomberg. Amazon and Netflix both more than doubled in value last year. Einhorn, in the firm’s presentation, pointed to differences between the two companies and more established brands such as Apple Inc. and Time Warner Cable Inc.  “Analysts strain to justify ever high” prices for Amazon shares, according to Greenlight’s presentation. 
  • Apple(AAPL) Executive Leading Electric-Car Project Said to Depart. The executive leading Apple Inc.’s development of an electric car is leaving the company, according to two people familiar with the move. Steve Zadesky, who was tapped by Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook to shepherd Apple’s bid to enter the automobile market, stepped down for personal reasons, not because of his performance, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing Apple personnel matters.
Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MYL), (NWL), (HMHC) and(IP).
  • Had bearish commentary on China's Yuan, (SQ), (MB), (SHOP) and (BOX).
Fox News:
  • 17 dead in northeast as NY gov imposes travel ban, mass transit shutdowns due to blizzard. (video) The giant snowstorm pummeling the East Coast caused 17 deaths, three in New York City, Saturday and forced New York's governor to issue a road travel ban and to halt suburban trains and some city subway lines. Three people in New York City died while shoveling snow in different parts of town, NYPD Chief of Department James O'Neill said Saturday afternoon. Those incidents brought the death toll blamed on the weather to 17, the Associated Press reported.
  • EXCLUSIVE: Clinton email exposed intel from human spying. (video) At least one of the emails on Hillary Clinton's private server contained extremely sensitive information identified by an intelligence agency as "HCS-O," which is the code used for reporting on human intelligence sources in ongoing operations, according to two sources not authorized to speak on the record. Both sources are familiar with the intelligence community inspector general’s January 14 letter to Congress, advising the Oversight committees that intelligence beyond Top Secret -- known as Special Access Program (SAP) -- was identified in the Clinton emails, as well the supporting documents from the affected agencies that owned the information and have final say on classification.
  • 4 dead after shootings in northern Saskatchewan. (video) A gunman opened fire at a high school and a second location in an aboriginal community in northern Saskatchewan on Friday, leaving four dead and at least two injured, officials said. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said from Davos, Switzerland that a suspect was in custody. Trudeau initially said five died, but police later corrected that to four. "This is every parent's worst nightmare," he said. "The community is reeling."
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
  • BONNER: The entire recovery is one giant myth. Twice in the last 15 years, markets have tried to correct the mistakes and excesses of the Bubble Epoch. Each time, the Fed came back with even more mistakes and excesses. Trillions in new credit… lower lending rates… easier terms… ZIRP… QE… and the Twist! Over the short run, markets respond to myths. Investors are ready to believe almost anything… for a while. But over the long run, there is death and destruction – a reality outside of what we believe.
  • The GOP is furious over John Kerry's comments on the Iran dealIn an interview with CNCBC from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the nation’s top diplomat said he couldn’t rule out that some of the money Iran is due to receive in sanctions relief would end up in the pockets of groups the U.S. and other countries consider to be terrorist organizations.
The Des Moines Register:
Reuters:
  • Merkel pressured on all fronts as ally takes swipe over migrants. German Chancellor Angela Merkel looked ever more isolated over her open-door policy on refugees on Saturday as it emerged that the leader of her party's Bavarian allies suggested this week she had become impervious to other people's views on the issue.
Financial Times: 
Telegraph:
Daily Mail:
Rudaw:
  • Iraq's Kurds Are Seeling Oil at $20 a Barrel. Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region earns 450b-500b Iraqi dinars a month from oil sales, not enough to pay civil servants' salaries, citing Kurdistan Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani. Region needs 850b dinars a month to pay salaries. Financial crisis in region driven by war on Islamic Sate, influx of displaced families, drop in oil prices. Region faces tough years ahead, counts on international support to overcome the crisis.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 1,906.90 -.78%
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

*5-Day Change