Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Friday, March 18, 2016
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
- S&P 500 2,049.58 +1.35%
- DJIA 17,602.30 +2.26%
- NASDAQ 4,795.65 +.99%
- Russell 2000 1,101.67 +1.30%
- S&P 500 High Beta 29.36 +2.19%
- Goldman 50 Most Shorted 98.43 +.34%
- Wilshire 5000 21,050.44 +1.34%
- Russell 1000 Growth 990.90 +1.33%
- Russell 1000 Value 975.08 +1.38%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 540.05 +.80%
- Solactive US Cyclical 130.38 +3.39%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 1,039.57 +1.50%
- Transports 8,075.69 +4.97%
- Utilities 658.54 +1.76%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 82.98 -3.44%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 33.85 +2.96%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,112.31 +.89%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,008.30 +.01%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 236,885 +1.65%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 87 +80
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 44.7 +56.6%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 269,856 +10.48%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,782,857 -1.85%
- Total Put/Call .69 -31.68%
- OEX Put/Call .20 -83.74%
- ISE Sentiment 115.0 +22.3%
- NYSE Arms 1.14 +44.3%
- Volatility(VIX) 14.34 -13.51%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.92 -1.23%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.25 -1.91%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.55 -.94%
- Smart Money Flow Index 18,964.92 +2.45%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.762 Trillion -1.43%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$.235 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 30.0 -19.8%
- AAII % Bears 26.9 +10.2%
Futures Spot Prices
- CRB Index 176.41 +2.11%
- Crude Oil 39.60 +4.23%
- Reformulated Gasoline 143.37 -.34%
- Natural Gas 1.91 +6.25%
- Heating Oil 124.73 +3.23%
- Gold 1,253.90 +.12%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 146.43 +.95%
- Copper 228.70 +1.99%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 170.67 USD/Ton +8.25%
- China Iron Ore Spot 57.50 USD/Ton +.72%
- Lumber 298.0 +1.78%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,065.53 +1.11%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.3% +80.0 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1794 +5.23%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.02 +.06%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.20 +9.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.90 +8.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.70 +2.6 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 96.0% chance of no change, 4.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 4/27
- US Dollar Index 95.05 -1.25%
- MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,491.12 +.82%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.34 -1.04%
- Yield Curve 104.0 +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.87% -11.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.448 Trillion +.12%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.72 -3.45%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 342.0 -3.02%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 28.18 +2.28%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 61.16 -7.67%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 156.55 -3.23%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 80.13 +4.53%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,063.53 unch.
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 274.59 -3.09%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 126.35 +.85%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62% +7.0 basis points
- TED Spread 36.0 +4.0 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +2.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 +2.5 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 83.58 -.47%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,645.0 -10.77%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 80.33 +6.4%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 300.44 -6.39%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 170.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $3.083 Trillion -2.26%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,097.50 +1.20%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 268,000 +500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.73% +5.0 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 481.0 -3.28%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.3 +.5 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +.60% -10.0 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $1.97/gallon +.17/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 392.0 +1.0%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 670.11 -5.03%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 50.0 +33.3%
- Rail Freight Carloads 245,902 -7.27%
Best Performing Style
- Small-Cap Value +1.5%
Worst Performing Style
- Small-Cap Growth +1.0%
Leading Sectors
- Gaming +5.3%
- Oil Tankers +5.0%
- Gold & Silver +4.7%
- Road & Rail +4.3%
- Papers +4.1%
Lagging Sectors
- HMOs -.9%
- Oil Service -.9%
- Education -1.9%
- Biotech -4.0%
- Drugs -4.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)
- RSTI, TFM, FNSR, INGN, PRSC, PLCE, PKOH, FTD, MCRN, BOJA, MIK, HOT, CBPX and PEN
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)
- ALR, JBL, SHLM, ZUMZ, STCK, MNK, GES, FNBC, ACOR and VRX
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Stocks Rising Midday on Central Bank Hopes, Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Gaming Sector Strength
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.82 -4.16%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.56 -.17%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.55 unch.
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.91 -1.57%
- ISE Sentiment Index 164.0 +42.6%
- Total Put/Call .59 -11.94%
- NYSE Arms 1.01 -4.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.42 +.1%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,651.0 -13.0%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.54 +1.45%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.18 +1.70%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.10 -1.28%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 298.25 -2.11%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.35 +.35%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +1.25 basis points
- TED Spread 36.0 +1.75 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.69 -.24%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.
- Yield Curve 104.0 unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.50/Metric Tonne +2.51%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.2 +.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.90 +.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.70 -.2 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% +4.0 basis points
- 36.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 44.2% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -34 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +81 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
- Mid-Cap Value +.3%.
- 1) Oil Tankers -2.2% 2) Coal -1.9% 3) Oil Service -.9%
- CPS, CPPL, EGRX, FIS, TRP, REG, OGS, TITN, CRR, VRX, LIVN, TCP, AVA, HLF, TM, BMS, KHC, AKRX, CMG, IDA, TOWR, WGL, SFLY, MO, TRIP, APLP, CBL and CRR
- 1) SM 2) SYK 3) CLF 4) TIF 5) BIIB
- 1) JBL 2) KMT 3) MU 4) PBR 5) PYPL
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
- Small-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Hospitals +3.5% 2) Gaming +2.6% 3) Disk Drives +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- CPGX, ADBE, LXU, WYNN, SEL, OLLI and CALD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) HST 2) SE 3) NFX 4) WYN 5) MDVN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) ADBE 2) SCVL 3) WYNN 4) RTN 5) HOT
Charts:
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