Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 38.7% of Issues Advancing, 57.3% Declining
• 103 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 48.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.5%
• Vix 13.9 +6.3%
• Total Put/Call .99 +4.2%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -18.4%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.0 -.25 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.0 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.52 -.04%.
• S&P 500 futures +.%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases 
9:45 am EST

• The ISM New York for March is estimated to rise to 54.1 versus 53.6 in February.

10:00 am EST

• Labor Market Conditions Index for March.
• Factory Orders for February are estimated to fall -1.8% versus a +1.6% gain in January.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for February are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.2% decline in January.   

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Eurozone PPI report and the Reserve Bank of Australia Decision could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, Fed rate-hike fears, global growth concerns, commodity weakness, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,072.78 +1.81%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,072.78 +1.81%

• DJIA 17,792.75 +1.58%

• NASDAQ 4,914.54 +2.96%

• Russell 2000 1,117.68 +3.53%

• S&P 500 High Beta 28.63 +.7%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 98.39 +3.13% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,303.95 +2.02%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,011.33 +2.43%

• Russell 1000 Value 977.52 +1.32%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 550.37 +2.63%

• Solactive US Cyclical 130.65 +1.46%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,065.44 +2.63%

• Transports 7,887.77 -.48%

• Utilities 671.04 +1.64%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 76.94 -2.47%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 33.91 +1.69%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,120.47 +.66%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,013.23 -.10%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 239.057 +1.31%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 55 +439

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 305,511 -.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,734,511 +1.69%

• Total Put/Call .95 -8.65%

• OEX Put/Call 1.29 -84.64%

• ISE Sentiment 100.0 +25.0%

• NYSE Arms .81 -3.57%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -11.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.97 -5.17%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.88 -2.51%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.63 -1.11%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,134.78 +.35%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.765 Trillion +.5%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.035 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.2 -19.5%

• AAII % Bears 25.8 +8.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 168.03 -2.41%

• Crude Oil 36.79 -7.07%

• Reformulated Gasoline 140.16 -6.40%

• Natural Gas 1.96 +8.07%

• Heating Oil 113.17 -5.68%

• Gold 1,223.50 +.56%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 142.76 +.18%

• Copper 216.30 -3.35%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 170.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 54.80 USD/Ton -2.79%

• Lumber 300.70 +.97%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,062.45 -1.68%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +.7% +140.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1049 +7.74%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.01 -.01%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +6.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.0 +10.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +15.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 4/27

• US Dollar Index 94.62 -1.58%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,508.09 +1.57%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.89 +.71%

• Yield Curve 105.0 +2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.77% -13.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.443 Trillion -.25%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.99 +1.50%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 344.0 -.74%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 25.98 -4.77%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 59.06 +1.30%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 148.38 -1.85%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.78 -.20%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 999.79 +3.79% 

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 289.69 -2.16%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 126.82 +.31%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% +6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 40.50 +7.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 -2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.22 -7.04%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,283.0 -14.55%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 90.77 -3.87%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 289.16 -2.80%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 165.0 -5.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $3.175 Trillion +1.37%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,100.70 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 263,250 +3,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.71% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 460.50 -1.01%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 42.8 -.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.90% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.06/gallon +.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 450.0 +12.21%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 646.06 -1.99%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 57.50 +64.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 237,923 -4.09%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +4.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +5.3%

• Tobacco +4.4%

• Telecom +3.9%

• Computer Services +3.9%

• Restaurants +3.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -.2% 

• Energy -1.5%

• Road & Rail -1.8%

• Oil Service -2.8%

• Oil Tankers -3.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• ALDR, ACAD, CSII, SCLN, SAIC, SFBC, CNL, SONC, PGEM, BANC, MDVN, SYNT, WBMD, ABMD, GLPI and WMS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• NPBC, PJT, ROVI, SPKE, PBYI and CONN

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 25.0% of Issues Advancing, 72.2% Declining
• 89 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 48.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0%
• Vix 14.8 +6.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.24 +8.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.91 +57.4%