Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,255.18 +2.88%

• DJIA 19,734.90 +2.74%

• NASDAQ 5,439.0 +3.36%

• Russell 2000 1,385.57 +5.41%

• S&P 500 High Beta 38.07 +4.35%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 124.92 +4.16%

• Wilshire 5000 23,514.15 +3.09%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,062.21 +2.80%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,111.89 +3.06%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 530.86 +2.61%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3046 -.69%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,228.17 +3.67%

• Transports 9,404.20 +3.85%

• Utilities 643.77 +1.64%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 93.27 +9.51%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 36.10 +2.53%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,160.34 +.60%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 997.01 -.10%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 273,714 +1.94%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,359 +1,119

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 18.75 -66.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 287,881 +4.18%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,020,026 +1.23%

• Total Put/Call .81 -11.96%

• OEX Put/Call 1.11 -8.26%

• ISE Sentiment 85.0 +13.41%

• NYSE Arms .76 -20.0%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.86 -16.15%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.48 -8.66%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.53 -1.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.18 +2.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,482.20 +1.80%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.736 Trillion +.62%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$1.207 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 43.1 -1.5%

• AAII % Bears 26.5 +5.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 191.73 -.22%

• Crude Oil 51.41 -.56%

• Reformulated Gasoline 151.14 -3.19%

• Natural Gas 3.73 +6.14%

• Heating Oil 163.53 -1.45%

• Gold 1,161.60 -1.42%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.18 +1.47%

• Copper 264.80 +.76%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 207.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 81.66 USD/Ton +4.97%

• Lumber 317.30 -5.79%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,144.68 +.4%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.6% -30.0 basis points
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +9.7% +140.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0587 +16.74%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 130.52 +.18%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.20 +5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 62.60 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.9 +1.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/14

• US Dollar Index 101.66 +.97%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,515.77 +.92%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.94 +.39%

• Yield Curve 134.0 +6.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.46% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.410 Trillion +.07%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.65 -7.8%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 358.0 -.06%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.94 +3.26%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 35.93 -13.38%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 90.90 -8.59%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.0 0-2.9%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 760.05 unch.

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 202.26 -7.6%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.03 +.03%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0% +5.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 42.50 -4.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -54.25 +7.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 68.02 -6.66%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 461.0 -15.94%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 98.18 -6.86%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 249.67 -8.24%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 135.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.362 Trillion -1.22%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 935.70 +1.30%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 251,500 +500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% -10.0 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.13% +5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 414.10 -.74%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.1 +.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.7% -50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.20/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,122.0 -6.34%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 766.15 -1.02%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.50 +6.25%

• Rail Freight Carloads 278,801 +25.1%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +5.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.8%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +7.1%

• Homebuilding +6.4%

• Alt Energy +6.3%

• Tobacco +6.0%

• Semis +5.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Coal +.6% 

• Biotech -.3%

• HMOs -1.5%

• Gold & Silver -2.3%

• Gaming -5.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (30)

• FRAN, TLRD, PI, XXIA, BOBE, P, VBTX, GIII, CIEN, PLAY, IL, FCE/A, CONN, VYGR, FRP, ZG, PVTB, TER, KLXI, NBHC, CIA, GMED, MCRN, Z, BKFS, IBKC, PRSC, FET, UNVR and HMST

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)

• COUP, VRNT, ALR, OMCL, VRA, UHS, AMBA, ALOG, POWL, REI, OXM, NH, WDAY, SM, FTK, SNCR, AGIO and HZNP

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Oil Gain, Drug/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.74 -7.12%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.94 +.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 +1.64%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.53 +.91%

• ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 -27.91%
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +13.70%

• NYSE Arms .83 -8.77%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.92 -1.03%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 461.0 -1.21%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.40 +1.67%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.94 +3.35%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.93 -.54%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 249.66 +.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.03 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 unch.

• TED Spread 42.5 -2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -54.50 -4.5 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.82 -.35%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .53% +3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 134.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $81.66/Metric Tonne -.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.20 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 62.60 -2.0 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.90 -4.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0% unch.
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +238 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.5% 2) Homebuliding -2.2% 3) Steel -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• USAC, DLTH, XTLY, RH, RETA, SWFT, NCS, CQH, FOX, CS, UHS, HIIQ, NOAH, IDT, DB, SWKS, FRAN, LITE, SHLD, GS, UBS, AFL, GGAL, IPHI, CVI, WERN, TASR, FRED, PI and NCS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PAY 2) RH 3) STZ 4) LVS 5) SWKS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DTEA 2) DLTH 3) IHRT 4) OSK 5) CDW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.4% 2) Drugs +1.8% 3) Biotech +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SWC, EBS, ATKR, AVGO, BIIB, ATW, INVN, VDSI, OPHT, TLYS, MTN, VRNT and PEGI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CPN 2) FOXA 3) ARNC 4) CAG 5) FGP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VAC 2) AVGO 3) UAL 4) WNC 5) LEE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.5% Above 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 54.8% of Issues Advancing, 41.3% Declining
• 258 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 60.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.7%
• Vix 12.2 -3.6%
• Total Put/Call .74 +1.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +26.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• U.S. Chamber Said to Tell Mexico It Will Defend Nafta Deal. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce told a closed-door gathering of Mexican and American corporate and government leaders that it is aiming to keep Donald Trump from fulfilling his campaign threat to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter. Tom Donohue, head of the biggest U.S. business lobbying organization, told members of the U.S.-Mexico CEO Dialogue in Mexico City on Wednesday not to panic and to wait and see what the president-elect proposes once he takes office, said the three people, who spoke about the private event on condition of anonymity. The audience included cabinet officials from President Enrique Pena Nieto’s administration, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, and more than 100 business and government leaders.
• Mexico’s Peso Problems Are a Warning Sign for Global Investors. The world has never been so invested in Mexico, and so Mexico has never posed a bigger potential threat to the world. With a little more than six weeks before Donald Trump takes over with an agenda that could batter Latin America’s second-largest economy, Mexico is already showing signs of strain. Inflation is bouncing back, and traders bet it will only get worse; the peso has plummeted to record lows, and top analysts predict more pain; the government has lowered its growth forecast for four straight years, and Mexico is on the verge of a credit-rating cut just as Agustin Carstens gears up to leave the central bank after seven years at the helm.
• Rio’s Christ Statue Asking for Alms Amid Recession. It’s survived decades of wind, rain and lightning strikes, but now Brazil’s iconic Christ the Redeemer statue is suffering from the same elemental problem as the rest of the country: a lack of cash.
• Oil Climbs Above $51 Before Producer Talks as Asian Stocks Swing. Crude oil rose a second day, breaching $51 a barrel in New York before a meeting between OPEC and other major producers on output cuts. Asian stocks fluctuated at the end of their best week since September, while bonds and the Korean won declined. U.S. crude advanced to $51.06 a barrel before talks Saturday in Vienna among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 14 other nations. The Asia-Pacific equity benchmark swung as shares in Sydney and Tokyo climbed, while those in South Korea slipped. Bonds from Australia to Japan fell after the European Central Bank pledged to cut bond buying, while at the same time extending quantitative easing until the end of 2017. The won trimmed its biggest weekly advance in two months as the dollar gained ground. About the same number of stocks rose as fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which was little changed as of 10 a.m. Tokyo time.  

Wall Street Journal:

• ‘Fake News’ Fun House. Journalism’s hall of mirrors.
• A Lawyer for a Lawless EPA. Scott Pruitt can restore respect for the states in environmental policy.

Fox News:

• Make India great again? Fighter jet giants look to move production to India.

MarketWatch:

• This is the ‘most frightening chart’ that Albert Edwards wants investors to see. (graph)

CNBC:

• Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008. (video)
• Homeland Security tied to attempted hack of Georgia's election database: Report.
• Get ready for Republican rush of regulation rollback.

Zero Hedge:

• In Unprecedented Move, Dallas Pension System Suspends Withdrawals.
• What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, & GDP Growth?
• Presenting SocGen's "Most Frightening Credit Chart". (graph)
• Lame-Duck Congress Looking To Ban Online Gambling.
• Hillary Reemerges, Slams "Dangerous Epidemic" Of Fake News.
• Life Expectancy In U.S. Drops For The First Time In Decades - "This Is A Big Deal".
• Restoration Hardware(RH) Implodes After More Terrible Guidance, Blames Election.
• VIX & Stocks Surge For Second Day Amid Bond Bloodbath. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Americans from all corners of the economy are loving life since Trump's election.
• Something interesting — and possibly alarming — is happening with Tesla(TSLA) stock.
• These photos captured the defining moments of decorated astronaut John Glenn's life and career.
• Rising interest rates are a bad omen for stocks.
• China is about to hit Macau hard, and casino stocks are getting spanked.
• The US is $19.9 trillion in debt — here are the countries we owe the most. (video)

Telegraph:

• Europe's comfort blanket is being pulled away.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.25 -4.0 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 36.25 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.95 -.15%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.02%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (MTN)/-1.56

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories MoM Final for October are estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.4% prior estimate.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for October are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in September.
• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for December is estimated to rise to 94.5 versus 93.8 in November.  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The USDA WASDE Report, German Trade Balance report and the (SWFT) Mid-Fourth Quarter Conference Call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are most lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.