Thursday, October 18, 2018

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:36 PM
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:        
  • Asia Stocks to Track U.S. Slide, Treasuries Rise. Asian stocks are on course for a further losses following a weak U.S. equity session as investors fretted over lofty expectations for earnings and the trade war’s impact on growth amid rising interest rates. Treasuries and the yen gained. Shares in Australia and New Zealand fell and futures pointed to losses for equities in Japan and Hong Kong after the S&P 500 Index fell more than 1 percent and the Nasdaq 100’s drop topped 2 percent. Chinese stocks are also seen falling as losses this week brought the slide in its major benchmark to 30 percent since a January high amid concern about the weakening yuan and policy responses to slowing growth. Next up comes third-quarter GDP for China on Friday in addition to retail sales and factory output data. The dollar touched the highest in more than a week, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.18 percent. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.2 percent in Singapore trading. FTSE China A50 Index futures slid 1.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.8 percent. Hang Seng futures declined 1.3 percent. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the underlying gauge fell 1.4 percent Thursday.  
Wall St. Journal:
CNBC:           
Zero Hedge: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.25 +1.75 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 9.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.89 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (CLF)/.66
  • (GNTX)/.42
  • (HON)/1.99
  • (IPG)/.46
  • (KSU)/1.57
  • (MAN)/2.41
  • (PG)/1.09
  • (SLB)/.45
  • (STT)/1.89
  • (STI)/1.39
  • (VFC)/1.33
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for September are estimated to fall to 5.29M versus 5.34M in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, China GDP/Retail Sales/Industrial Production reports and the (SCHW) fall business update could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Trade War Worries, European/Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Transport Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:27 PM
 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.10 +15.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.69 -.77%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.70 +2.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.96 +3.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 60.0 -30.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.31 +12.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 +62.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.99 +4.59%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 414.0 +1.82%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.31 +5.09%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 308.75 +18.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.78 +.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.25 +2.84%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.20 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 +3.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.90 -.64%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 30.25 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 71.86 USD/Metric Tonne -.32%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.9 +.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.5 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 -2.0 basis points
  • 72.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 73.7% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -383 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -117 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -81 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my industrial/retail/tech/biotech/medical  sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:47 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Video Gaming -3.1% 2) Steel -3.0% 3) Social Media -2.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TXT, APLS, TCBI, URI, SNA, YNDX, PTE, SEE, ADTN, HEES, WGO, ATVI, SAP, GCP, GPS, SOI and OIS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ATVI 2) URI 3) SLCA 4) CCI 5) EOG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HMNY 2) BLD 3) SEE 4) IBP 5) BLDR
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:33 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +.7% 2) Utilities unch. 3) REITs -.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ECYT, YECO, ACHC, EGBN, GBT, AA, MDSO, ADS, GPC, PX, XERS, HTLD, SON, GTLS, WBS, SFBS, STLD, SBNY, WBC, ARGX, PM, STBA and DOV
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ARRY 2) CCI 3) DNR 4) PX 5) URI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GPC 2) PM 3) SON 4) AA 5) FLR
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:52 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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