Mid-Day Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +24.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 50.8% of Issues Advancing, 46.4% Declining
• 79 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 83.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,517.0 +73.0 points
• Vix 20.6 -.6%
• Total Put/Call .62 -4.6%
• TRIN/Arms .58 -45.8%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.0 -2.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.64 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,464.0 +20.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.51 +.35%
• FTSE 100 futures -.41%.

• S&P 500 futures -.32%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (PDCO)/.39
• (RY)/2.07
  

After the Close:

• (CMTL)/.09
• (CRWD)/.00
• (FIVE)/.19
• (GES)/.05
• (OKTA)/-.01
• (PVH)/.18
• (SMTC)/.46
• (SNOW)-.26
• (SPLK)/.09
• (SNPS)/1.57
• (VRNT)/.79
• (ZS)/.06
  

Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to rise to 430K versus 365K in Oct.

10:30 am EST:

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,900,000 barrels versus a -754,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,554,820 barrels versus a +2,180,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,092,090 barrels versus a -1,441,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.63% versus a +1.3% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book release. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Treasury's Mnuchin/Fed Chairman Powell testifying to House, Fed's Quarles speaking, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Credit Suisse Industrials Conference and the (COHU) investor conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, US Dollar Weakness, Financial/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.3 -1.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,469.0 +144.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.19 +1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 +.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.0 -1.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .58 -26.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -36.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.05 -2.62%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 667.41 -1.32%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.22 -5.65%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.94 -1.76%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.53 -1.92%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.25 +.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 -1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 14.75 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.5 -3.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.21 +.73%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.

• Yield Curve 69.75 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.96 USD/Metric Tonne +.58%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 75.30 -2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 126.8 +3.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 66.9 +1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 +4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +118 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +35.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 69.3% of Issues Advancing, 28.5% Declining
• 136 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 82.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,479.0 +154.0 points
• Vix 20.4 -.7%
• Total Put/Call .58 -26.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.11 -32.7%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Korea Economy Grows More Than First Estimated Last Quarter.  
• Australian House Prices Rise, on Track to Recoup Covid Losses.  
• Trudeau to Raise Canada Debt Ceiling 57% to $1.4 Trillion.
• Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures Climb; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks and U.S. futures traded higher Tuesday as investors shrugged off an overnight slide in equities and once again embraced risk assets after an unprecedented month of gains. The dollar dipped. What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter. Email Sign UpBy submitting my information, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service and to receive offers and promotions from Bloomberg. Shares climbed in Japan, Australia and South Korea. S&P 500 futures advanced after the benchmark dropped the most in more than a week, though still closed out its best month since April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq indexes that trailed in November fared better, touching a record high on Monday, while a gauge of global stocks posted its best month on record. Gold held losses and Bitcoin rallied back to an all-time high. Elsewhere, oil held a decline. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 Index dipped 0.5%. Topix index rose 0.8%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.6%. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index contracts fell 0.4% earlier.
• Oil Holds Losses as OPEC+ Struggles for Consensus on Output Plan.  
• Powell Sees Challenges, RBA Rejoins Pack, Biden’s Team: Eco Day.  
• ‘It’s Been Amazing’: November’s Record Moves in Charts.  
• BioNTech Slapped With Downgrade Amid Covid Vaccine Competition.  
• Exxon Logs Record Writedown, Slashes Long-Term Spending Plan.
• Flynn Case Should Be Dismissed Immediately, U.S. Tells Judge.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Franchise Relationship That Powers Small Business Is Fraying.
• Return of the Obama Economists.
• In Europe’s Nursing Homes, a Soaring Covid-19 Death Toll and the Pain of Isolation.
• For Covid-19 Long-Haulers, a Little-Known Diagnosis Offers Treatments—and Challenges.
• GM Won’t Take Stake in Nikola.

Fox News: 

• Senate runoff elections spark investigations into alleged attempts to register illegal voters.
• Ex-president rips Americans for clinging to 'cheap gas and big cars'.
  

CNBC.com:

• Zuckerberg says Facebook will show ‘authoritative’ info about Covid-19 vaccines.
• Zoom’s astronomical growth rate appears to be moderating; shares fall.
• Powell stresses importance of lending programs, calls economic outlook ‘extraordinarily uncertain’.
• First ‘mass air shipment’ of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine arrives as airlines prepare for more.

MarketWatch.com:            

• AMD stock rallies to record close after CEO sounds positive notes on 2021 and PC market  
• The stock market saw a historic November rally — here’s why that might not bode well for December.

Zero Hedge:

• 20 Alleged Election "Facts" That Don't Pass The Smell Test.
• "High Degree Of Confidence": Deep-Dive Data Analyst Says More Illegal Votes In AZ Than Biden Margin Of Victory.
• Pennsylvania Lawmakers Formally Introduce Resolution To Dispute 2020 Elections Results.
• Beijing "Unexpectedly" Injects $30 Billion Into Financial System, Sparking Doubts About True State Of China's Economy.
• America's New Normal - Silent, Obedient Consent.
• Georgia's Raffensperger Suddenly Concerned About "Illegal" Out Of State Votes.
• "Absolutely Crazy" - Sub-Zero Freezer Demand Erupts Ahead Of Vaccine Distribution 
• "Dark Winter" Was A CSIS Scenario Code-Name Covering Biological Weapon Use Against America.
• Oil Slides After Tuesday's OPEC Meeting Rescheduled "As More Talks Needed".
• Despite "Positive News" On Vaccine Front, The Outlook Remains "Extremely Uncertain" Powell Tells Congress In Prepared Remarks.
• JPMorgan Downgrades US Stocks To Neutral, Just Weeks After Hiking 2021 S&P Price Target To 4,500.
• California's Newsom Warns Of "Dramatic, Arguably Drastic" New Restrictions To Come As Hospitalizations Hit Record Highs: Live Updates.
• Global Stocks Soar To Best Month Ever As Bitcoin Hits Record High.

Newsmax:

• Trump's Ga. Lawyer Sends Letter Demanding Signature Match Recount.  
• Dick Morris to Newsmax: Remedy to Come From State Legislatures. 
• Rep. Barry Loudermilk to Newsmax TV: Forensic Analysis Needed of Dominion Machines.
• Ga. Probing Liberal Voter-Registration Groups Ahead of Critical Senate Races.
  

 @kylenabecker:

• Dominion is *NOT* shy about telling state officials exactly what their voting machines can do for them. It highlights its machines allow for electronic "adjudication" (*cough, cough*) of votes. Let's do a short rundown of its patents. 1/10

@SydneyPowell1:

• I suspect the Trump team has all of the data but now people are getting caught in traps. Anyone who knowingly falsely certified election results has committed a felony. Now, acting in bad faith as they try to cover things up, just piles on the charges. I believe Sidney.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Arizona State Rep Issues Call to Withhold State’s Electoral College Votes to Joe Biden Due to Significant Evidence of Fraud.

The Epoch Times:

• China Insider: China Removes All Regions From Poverty List Despite Starvation Deaths

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.5 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.18 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,370.0 +45.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.42 -.63%
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.51%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.67%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BMO)/1.91
• (MOMO)/2.47
  

After the Close:

• (HOME)/.60
• (BOX)/.06
• (HPE)/.34
• (NTAP)/.73
• (CRM)/.75
  

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 59.3 in Oct.
• ISM Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 64.0 versus 65.5 in Oct.
• Construction Spending MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 16.1M versus 16.21M in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• (MKC) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell/Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testimony to Senate, Fed's Brainard speaking, German Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Inflation data, weekly US retail sales reports, Wells Fargo TMT Summit, BofA Materials/Infrastructure Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference and the Scotiabank Mining Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Virus Shutdown Fears, US Economic Data, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.2 +1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,284.0 -50.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.05 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 +.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.8 -4.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 -104.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .72 -2.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.18 -28.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.26 -1.89%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 677.92 -.07%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.65 +1.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.16 +1.48%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.98 +.06%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.01 +.21%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -1.75 basis points

• TED Spread 15.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 -2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.75 -3.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.21 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.

• Yield Curve 68.75 -1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 124.75 USD/Metric Tonne -3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.80 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 123.7 +6.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.1 +1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +7 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long