Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Oil Gain, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.3 +.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,451.0 +42.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.01 -.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 +.41%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.9 +2.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .62 -8.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +45.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.62 +.62%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 505.29 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.05 +.58%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.0 +.75 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.53 -.64%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.37 +2.52%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.17 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 16.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +3.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.75 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.76 +.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 158.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.90 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.2 -.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.10 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -40 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -1.2% 2) Airlines -1.2% 3) Homebuilding -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OPCH, RA, MBUU, VSH, DGNR, CRSR, HOL, TTWO, CARR, AVRO, SNPR, DCRB, DCRB, RAMP, CLF, JKHY, LBRT, CDK, IRDM, TBIO, ARYA, WCC and OCGN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KALV 2) GLUU 3) HBI 4) TTWO 5) CHGG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OCGN 2) GME 3) ARCH 4) ESPR 5) KBH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +1.6% 2) Social Media +1.4% 3) Education +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VERU, GLUU, NPA, RIOT, HBI, TDC, GHVI, MSTR, CODX, GNMK, XONE, LAKE, SCPL, IPI, PCVX, GPRE, AVYA, OPEN, SLQT, VRNS, COLL, IT, GOCO, CVLB, IPV, BCEL, AMG, CLOV, KTOS, SOI, GT, IMVT and PRCH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REI 2) HBI 3) IGT 4) UAVS 5) GLUU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KALV 2) DSX 3) ALLT 4) HBI 5) VRNS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 49.8% of Issues Advancing, 47.6% Declining
• 222 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 85.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,415.0 +6.0 points
• Vix 21.8 +2.6%
• Total Put/Call .61 -10.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.62 +52.8%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• Japan Wages Fall Most Since 2015 as Winter Bonuses Slide.
• WHO Backs Astra Vaccine; Thailand Chooses Sinovac: Virus Update.
• Stocks Steady Near Record Highs; Oil Extends Gains: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Near Pre-Virus High After Rallying on Tighter Market.  
• N.Z. Bubble Trouble, Inflation Returns, China Challenge: Eco Day.  
• Dire Bond Returns Have 60/40 Managers Juicing Portfolios With FX.  
• U.S. Junk-Bond Yields Drop Below 4% for the First Time.  
• New Jersey Property-Tax Average Rises to Record High of $9,112.

Wall Street Journal: 

• How to Keep America Polarized. 
  
• Hacker Changed Chemical Level in Florida City’s Water.
• Reality Check for a $15 Minimum Wage.
• Malls Spent Billions on Theme Parks to Woo Shoppers. It Made Matters Worse.

CNBC.com:

• Raising minimum wage to $15 would cost 1.4 million jobs, CBO says.
• Democrats press ahead on $15 an hour minimum wage despite deficit worries.
• Democrats to unveil plan to send up to $3,600 per child to households.
• A ‘full-fledged assault’ by regulators will hit Facebook and Twitter: Paul Meeks.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Take-Two, Electronic Arts, Chegg and more.

MarketWatch.com:    

• ‘Overconfidence’: Why it’s mostly men under 30 trading bitcoin.  
• Watch: Norway and Ford respond to Will Ferrell’s GM Super Bowl ad.  
• DoorDash buys Chowbotics, maker of food-preparing robots.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Government Fail: "We've Turned Teens Into Lockdown Lab Rats".
• Manhattan Office Supply Soars To Record As Remote-Working Dominates.
• China Arrests High Profile Australian Journalist On Spy Charges.
• Biden Appears To Be Expanding The US Occupation Of Syria.
• With Scorching Economy Set To Overheat, Goldman Brings Forward First Rate Hike Estimate.
• Montana Aims To "Save Women's Sports" From Biden's Executive Order.
• Glenn Greenwald Obliterates "Tattling, Hall Monitoring, Speech Policing" Journalists After Taylor Lorenz Self-Owns Into Oblivion.
• Deepfake Detectors Can Be Defeated, Computer Scientists Show For The First Time.
• Majority Of GOP Voters Would Join A New Trump-Led Political Party, Poll Shows.
• Bitcoin, Bonds, Bullion, Biotech, & Big-Shorts Bid As Buck Breaks-Down.

Newsmax:

• Sen. Tim Scott: Violent Rioters, Not Trump, Guilty of Stoking Capitol Mayhem.  
• Wyoming Gov: Oil, Gas Lease Ban 'Bipartisan in Its Destruction'. 
• Sheriff Warns Biden's Immigration Actions Very Dangerous. 
• Rep. French Hill: 'Enormous Debt' From COVID Bills Will Spike Taxes.
• AP Poll: Just 16 Percent Say US Democracy Is Thriving.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “When Do They Get Their Green Jobs?” – Fox News’ Peter Doocy Presses Jen Psaki About Thousands of Laid Off Energy Workers Thanks to Biden’s EOs (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Suspicious Vehicle Seen Escorting Late Night Biden Ballot Van at TCF Center on Election Night (VIDEO).
• Corrupt Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger Launches Investigation Into Trump’s Phone Calls to State Election Officials.
• White House Confirms Illegal Aliens Who are Convicted of DUI, Rape and Drug-Related Crimes Will NOT be Deported (VIDEO).
• Liz Cheney is Doing EVERYTHING She Can to Damage President Trump Before Senate Impeachment Just Like She Did Before House Impeachment.
• “You Can’t Just Criminalize Republican Speech and Ignore All the Democrats Who Have Incited Violence” – Rand Paul Blasts Schumer for Inciting Hate and Violence (VIDEO).
• Neo-Nazi Ukrainians, and Forefathers of Antifa, Instigated and Participated in the Capitol Hill Riot Alongside Antifa.
• Larry Johnson: Here Is What I See as The Strengths and Weaknesses of Mike Lindell’s Movie “Absolute Proof”.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Ambassador Repeats Conspiracy Theory That Pandemic May Have Originated in the United States.
• ‘Very Credible Case’ Chinese Regime Carried out Genocide Against Uyghurs: UK Lawyers.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.5 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.67 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,416.0 +7.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.7 +.5%.
• FTSE 100 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DD)/.85
• (FOXA)/-.06
• (IT)/.82
• (GT)/.16
• (HAIN)/.30
• (IIVI)/.90
• (INCY)/.77
• (JLL)/3.93
• (MLM)/2.25
• (MAS)/.74
• (MYGN)/-.12
• (RCL)/-5.19
• (SEE)/.79
• (VSH)/.29
  

After the Close:

• (AKAM)/1.31
• (CSCO)/.75
• (LYFT)/-.68
• (MAT)/.23
• (NCR)/.62
• (OI)/.34
• (PAA)/.34
• (THC)/1.75
• (TWTR)/.31
• (YELP)/.32
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 96.8 versus 95.9 in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Dec. is estimated to fall to 6400 versus 6527 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $58B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Stifel Transport/Logistics Conference, Cowen Aerospace/Defense/Industrials Conference,  could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.6 +3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,368.0 +6.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.16 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 -.50%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.75 +.74%

• ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +42.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -13.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +24.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.22 -1.50%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 508.36 -.88%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.68 -.03%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 95.25 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.87 -1.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.88 +.51%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.30 -.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.63 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 108.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 155.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.10 +.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.7 -3.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 64.40 -1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +77 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long