Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 50.5% of Issues Advancing, 46.8% Declining
• 195 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 86.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,508.0 +26.0 points
• Vix 21.9 -.6%
• Total Put/Call .56 -25.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.33 +42.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,4881.0 unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.40 +.42%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AB)/.81
• (MT)/.22
• (AZN)/1.10
• (BWA)/.92
• (DUK)/1.01
• (GNRC)/1.96
• (K)/.88
• (LH)/3.08
• (TAP)/.77
• (PEP)/1.46
• (R)/.94
• (SINA)/.86
• (TPX)/.52
• (TSN)/1.50
• (YETI)/.62
  

After the Close:

• (CGNX)/.27
• (DDOG)/.02
• (EXPE)/-1.92
• (FLO)/.24
• (FWRD)/.73
• (ILMN)/1.14
• (MHK)/2.87
• (DIS)/-.34
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 758K versus 779K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4420K versus 4592K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $27B 30Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (PYPL) investor day and the (NUS) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Valuation Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.2 +2.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,479.0 +30.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.31 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 -1.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.4 +.39%

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +16.7%

• NYSE Arms .87 -47.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.59 -.49%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 505.11 +.02%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.63 -.74%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 94.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.65 +.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.04 -.34%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.29 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.0 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.90 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.10 -10.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 139.3 -2.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.60 -5.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -267 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On loses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.5% 2) Construction -.6% 3) Alt Energy .4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GM, GOCO, CSCO, PCVX, HIMS, OMF, CLNE, THC, DCRB, SLP, AIZ, APPH, REYN, AEIS, IPG, SI, HBI, HCSG, YELP, CODX, HOL, FMC, QLYS, EXPI, FLR, EXPI, CDAY, VCRA, AKAM, TDC, ATEN, SAVA, XONE, AYX and MSTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DXC 2) AKAM 3) MJ 4) ICLN 5) HBI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AKAM 2) SPCE 3) LAD 4) STOK 5) QS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.5% 2) Gaming +2.4% 3) Airlines +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CLVR, ACIC, PACB, KOPN, CVLB, EGOV, THS, KALV, UAVS, FTAI, NOG, MP, UAA, MTCH, ENPH, OPEN, TWTR, PDAC, AVYA, UA, TYL, MBUU, CARA, SAH, EXPC, LORL, MXL, CCK, LYFT, GT, STEP, SOI, AFIB, CLF, DCPH, AGIO and WCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CRK 2) YELL 3) RKDA 4) UAVS 5) UAMY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CRTO 2) UAA 3) MODN 4) NFH 5) GT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 49.0% of Issues Advancing, 48.5% Declining
• 276 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 86.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,433.0 -16.0 points
• Vix 23.0 +6.2%
• Total Put/Call .74 +12.1%
• TRIN/Arms .89 -46.4%