Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 16.4% of Issues Advancing, 79.7% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 187 New Lows
• 49.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,000.0 -505.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,772 +.19%
  
• Vix 26.8 +16.9%
• Total Put/Call .72 -19.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.42 +17.4%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Omicron Risks New Inflation Headache for Global Central Bankers.
  
• Australia Delays Easing Border Rules as It Weighs Omicron Threat.    
• Kaisa Is Next Worry for China Bond Traders After Rocky Month.
• Singapore Adds to Its Gold Pile for the First Time in Decades.
• Hong Kong Widens Ban; Singapore Reopening Flops: Virus Update.
  
• Asia Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise as Virus Fear Eases: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Pushes Higher as Traders Weigh Omicron Risks, OPEC+ Meeting.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Isn’t Jeffrey Epstein, Defense Tells Jury.
  
• U.S. Drivers Set for Relief at the Pump as Oil Rally Cools.
  
• Dip Buyers Erase Massive Losses at Unprecedented Clip.  
• Making Up for Lost Time, Cargo Ships Are Skipping Oakland And Returning Straight to Asia.  
• Treasuries Keep a Grip on Gains Spurred by Omicron Virus Fears.   
• Jerome Powell Says Omicron Adds Economic Risks, Inflation Uncertainty.

Wall Street Journal:

• Pentagon Plans to Improve Airfields in Guam, Australia to Confront China.
• Workers Quit Jobs in Droves to Become Their Own Bosses.
• Amazon Alabama Workers to Hold New Union Vote, Labor Official Rules.
• CNN to Review Records Showing Chris Cuomo’s Involvement in Coaching Brother.
• Goldman Expands Benefits to Combat Employee Burnout.
• Microsoft’s Nadella Sells Half of His Shares in Company.
• The Omicron Non-Emergency. Vaccine mandates are hurting hospitals, as a judge blocks Biden’s on healthcare workers.
• Jamie Dimon’s China Joke Is on JPMorgan’s ‘Stakeholders’. His kowtow shows that investor value is still paramount—and maybe in this case it shouldn’t be.

Fox News:  

• President backs out of supply chain speech last-minute as nation waits for leader to lead.
• Liberal media bemoans Biden's poor approval rating despite 'achievements'.
• Markets worried COVID omicron variant will lead to new restrictions, boost inflation: El-Erian.
  

CNBC.com:

• Powell to tell Senate omicron variant poses downside risk to economy, complicates inflation picture.
• Cramer on Covid omicron variant: Panic is not an investment strategy at all.
• HashiCorp aiming for $13 billion valuation in IPO, according to updated prospectus.
• Lululemon fires back at Peloton in growing feud over clothing patents.
• Commerce secretary says House needs to pass CHIPS Act immediately to ease semiconductor shortage.

MarketWatch           

• These 60 stocks, including DraftKings, Zillow and Virgin Galactic, are down at least 50% from their 2021 highs.
  
• This is why everyone is getting a generator.
  
• S&P 500 may end ‘pretty flat’ in 2022 amid previously ‘unthinkable’ negative real rates, says BofA strategist.
  
• Who is Parag Agrawal? 5 things to know about the new CEO of Twitter.

Zero Hedge:

• Salvation Army Unrings Bell, No Longer Asking White People To Deliver 'Sincere' Apologies For Their Race.
• Sens. Cruz, Paul Blast "Astounding Authoritarian" Fauci For "I Am Science" Claim.
• Will 2022 Midterms Be The Next Great Crisis Backlash?
• Disney Under Fire For Blocking Simpsons Episode From Hong Kong Streaming Services.
• How California "Solved" Its Record Ship Pileup: It Moved Them Out Of Sight, Over The Horizon.
• The Hidden Victims Of Biden's Border Crisis.
• Hedge Funds Crushed By Surge In Moderna, The Third Most Shorted Name.
• Arabica Stockpiles Experience Largest Plunge Since '98 Amid Severe Shortage.
• Green Technologies Have A Glaring Problem Of Scale.
• FTC Demands Wal-Mart, Amazon & Others Participate In Supply-Chain Probe.
• Think Carefully About Accepting The Concept Of Vaccine Passports.
• Fed Chair Powell Swings Dovish, Blames Omicron Uncertainty.
• Will The Omicron Virus Turn Out To Actually Be Bullish For Stocks.
• A Different Perspective: How Threat-Free Are Americans From COVID-19?
• 'Partner In Crime': Maxwell Prosecution Opens With Sordid Details Of Epstein Sexual Predation.
• Bitcoin & Big-Tech Erase Omicron Fears; Bonds, Black Gold, & The Buck Less Sure.

Newsmax: 

• Report: Biden to Delay Suspension of Unvaccinated Federal Workers Until After Holidays.
  
• Rep. Steil: Concerned Biden Will Use Omicron to Push Agenda.
• Navarro: Evidence Fauci Involved in Wuhan Lab ‘Over the Moon’
• Rep. Grothman: Omicron Brings New Worries on Immigrant Testing.
• Majority Say Biden to Blame for Divided US: Poll.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Five Minutes After Telling Americans to Wear Masks Indoors, Biden Violates His Own Mask Mandate (VIDEO).
• DeSantis Said Florida Won’t Lock Down Over ‘Media-Driven Hysteria’ About Omicron Variant
• JUST IN: Biden Regime Quietly Tells Federal Agencies to Suspend Enforcement of Vaccine Mandate For Federal Workers Until After Holidays While Publicly Pressuring “The World” To Take Experimental Jab.
• Trump-Appointed Judge Blocks Biden’s Vaccine Mandate For Healthcare Workers in 10 States.
• Fake News Media Claims 5X Increase in Healthy World-Class Athletes Who Suddenly Collapse Holding Their Chest is Just a “Coincidence” and Nothing to “Panic” Over.
• Maskless Jill Biden Reads Story about the Biden Family to Masked Second Graders Visiting White House (VIDEO).
• Twitter’s New CEO Does Not Care About or Honor American Rights and Freedoms – Says “Our Role Is Not to Be Bound by First Amendment” …Update: Posted Racist Anti-White Tweet.
• ON FIRE! Dr. Naomi Wolf: “Dr. Fauci Should Be Scared of Investigations – There Clearly Is Misconduct Going On” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Communist China Declared War on the US Long Ago.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 654,412 (US) Reports Through November 12, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 51.75 -2.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.07 +.17%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,584.0 +80.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.06%.

• S&P 500 futures +.32%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (JKS)/.02
  

After the Close:

• (AMBA)/.49
• (BOX)/.21
• (HPE)/.49
• (NTAP)/1.21
• (CRM)/.92
• (ZS)/.12
  

Economic Releases 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.0% gain in Aug. 
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.15% versus a +1.17% gain in Aug.

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 67.0 versus 68.4 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 110.8 versus 113.8 in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, Scotiabank Mining Conference, BofA Materials/Infrastructure Conference, Wells Fargo TMT Summit and the Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Lockdown Fears, Technical Buying, Seasonality, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.1 -22.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,561.0 +550.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.18 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.18%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 n/a

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -4.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -14.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.68 -2.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 424.58 -1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.54 -3.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 129.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.5 +.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 209.78 -4.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.9 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.75 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.89 -.77%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 99.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.40 USD/Metric Tonne +3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -11.9 +2.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.7 +2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 +1.0 basis point
• 97.5% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 82.4% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 157 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -31/100K people
• 30% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -5.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +151 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -83 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/transport/tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -1.6% 2) Tobacco -1.3% 3) Social Media -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BBY, OMP, EBS, CRWD, DMYQ, ARCT, BYSI, U, TDOC, AXNX, MRK, HOOD, XAIR and THRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KRYS 2) ATOS 3) BKLN 4) XI 5) MTG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GEF 2) EAR 3) HYZN 4) ZME 5) BECN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.5% 2) Computer Services +2.5% 3) Alt Energy +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ADGI, VIR, MRNA, RRD, DOCS, AUR, GCP, BERY, AOSL, GOEV, CUBI, PSTG, CUBI, HTZ, GNK, ASLE, CHGG, CLMT, EXPE, PRAX, INCY, NVDA, MAR, CPE, PDCO, CRM, ADSK, RCL, CARS, HPQ, MCO, SAVE, TIL and RMBS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JCI 2) NRXP 3) HTA 4) ALDX 5) KRYS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LI 2) CHGG 3) AMBA 4) ZS 5) HAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sector Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 48.6% of Issues Advancing, 47.8% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 82 New Lows
• 49.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,365.0 +350.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,693 +1.3%
  
• Vix 24.9 -12.9%
• Total Put/Call .84 -8.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 -16.2%