Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• Biden Is Left Guessing Over Putin’s Ultimate Aim Against Ukraine.
• Why War With Taiwan Would Be a Huge Gamble for China’s Xi.
• Australia Joins Diplomatic Boycott of Beijing’s Winter Olympics.
• Evergrande Restructuring Puts Onus on Xi to Limit Contagion.
• List of Chinese Developers Warning on Debt Grows With Aoyuan .
  
• Japan GDP Shrinks More Than First Reported as Shoppers Pull back.
  
• Stocks in Asia Track U.S. Up as Virus Fears Ease: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Steadies After Two-Day Rally as Report Signals Cushing Gain.
• Pursuit of Wealth, China Trade, Japan’s Covid Aid: Eco Day.
• AmEx Sees Holiday Spending Soaring as Omicron Fails to Bite.
• The Anti-Work Brigade Is Coming for Amazon.  
• Congress Agrees on Debt-Ceiling Deal, Sidestepping Default Risk.  
• After Dramatic Testimony, Maxwell Prosecutors to Rest Case Early.  
• Toll Brothers Beats Estimates on Orders, Increases Home Prices.  
• Risk Appetites Revitalized in Supercharged U.S. Equities Rebound.

Wall Street Journal:

• Amazon Unsettles Labor Markets.
• Voters Pessimistic About Economy, Biden’s Leadership, WSJ Poll Finds.
• Sen. Joe Manchin Holds Back Support for Social-Spending Bill.
• Lawmakers Close In on Debt-Ceiling Deal.
• Stuck at Port for 54 Days: How One Ship’s Delays Hurt Small Businesses. 
• Biden’s Supreme Court Packers Pack Up. Their report on adding Justices puts the issue in the President’s court. 
• Supply-Chain Snags Likely to Persist, Three CEOs Say.
• EPA Trims Ethanol Mandate for Gasoline as Biofuel Pressures Pump Prices.
• BlackRock to Pull $2 Trillion in Assets From State Street.

Fox News: 

• Biden admin publicly jabs progressives after their comments about crime spree come under heavy fire.
• California state, federal politicians silent after AOC doubts existence of smash-and-grab robberies.
• Left's philosophy on crime is on full display in blue states as Democrats promote 'chaos': Pavlich.

NY Post:

• Ghislaine Maxwell Trial: Live Updates from Day 7.

CNBC.com:

• Tech IPOs have been a bad bet in 2021 — all but one are in bear market territory.
• Amazon Web Services outage brings some delivery operations to a standstill.
• Stitch Fix shares crater as retailer cuts forecast, despite topping earnings estimates.
• Ford is doing ‘whatever it takes’ to double production capacity for electric F-150 pickup, says CEO.
• Under-the-surface market checks suggest sell-off worse than it appears. Why that’s a good thing.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Stitch Fix, PagerDuty, Dave & Buster’s and more.

Zero Hedge:

• China Says US Trying To "Disrupt" Beijing Winter Olympics, Vows Retaliation.
• CNN's Don Lemon Allegedly Tipped Off Jussie Smollett During Police Investigation.
• Hundreds Of Mathematicians, Scientists, Sign Open-Letter Against Social-Justice-Based Curriculum.
• McConnell Hits Resistance From GOP Over Debt Deal.
• Pfizer CEO Worried Omicron Might Open Door For More Mutant Strains.
• DB: Is The World Learning To Live With The Virus?
• The Great Realignment: Countless More Americans Will Be Moving From Blue States To Red States In 2022.
• Canada Ditches Moderna Booster For Pfizer Over Myocarditis Risk In Young Men.
• Biden Agreed To Putin's Request For Future Talks On Halting NATO Eastward Expansion: Kremlin.
• Watch: Psaki Snaps When Pressed On Hunter Biden's 'Laptop From Hell' 
• When Idiocy Becomes Hardwired.
• Pfizer Vaccine Less Effective Against Omicron Than Beta Variant, South Africa Study Reveals.
• "No Longer Tenable" - Biden's Marxist 'Lenin Award'-Winning Banking Pick Pulls Out.
• WTI Holds Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.
• Omicron Study Scare Stuns 'Face-Ripping' FOMO Short-Squeeze.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• MUST SEE VIDEO: Greene, Gaetz, Gohmert, and Gosar Release “Unusually Cruel” Report on DC Jail and Unusual and Cruel Treatment of J6 Defendants.
• J6 Attorney: Undercover Law Enforcement Officer Passed Out Weapons to J6 Protesters Who Were Later Arrested – Clear Entrapment (VIDEO).
• WATCH: Leaked Video Shows Boris Johnson’s Spox Laughing About Christmas Party That Took Place Amid Covid Lockdown.
• No Jab, No Food: Canadian Province Imposes New Regulations to Ban Unvaccinated from Grocery Stores.
• Report: Rockwood School District Admits to Calling the FBI on Parents …UPDATED: With Response from Rockwood School District.
• At Least 3 Children Die and 120 Hospitalized in Vietnam After Receiving Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine – 4 Adults Die from Vero Cell Covid Vaccine.
• BREAKING: Trump-Appointed Judge Blocks Biden’s Vaccine Mandate For Federal Contractors Nationwide.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Serious Mistake’: Sen. Risch Blasts Biden’s Consideration of New Nuclear Policy.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 672,372 (US) Reports Through November 26, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.0 -4.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 48.0 -3.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.71 -.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,436.0 +8.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.0 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BF/B)/.53
• (CPB)/.81
• (KFY)/1.37
• (PLAB)/.25
• (THO)/3.19
• (UNFI)/.60
• (VRA)/.26
• (WEBR)/-.18
  

After the Close:

• (GME)/-.52
• (OXM)/.29
• (RH)/6.59
  

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• JOLT Job Openings for Oct. is estimated to rise to 10469K versus 10438K in Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,169,100 barrels versus a -909,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,398,110 barrels versus a +4,029,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +541,110 barrels versus a +2,160,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.49% versus a +.2% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of Canada Decision, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (EW) investor conference, ROTH Consumer Conference, (LUV) investor day and the (MCK) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and transportation shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Oil Gain, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 -19.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,424.0 +481.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.80 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 -1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.0 -15.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0  +46.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -8.9%

• NYSE Arms .67 -1.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.72 -4.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 413.83 -5.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.1 -5.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.70 -3.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.39 -4.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.06 +.72%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.0 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 -1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.65 +.62%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 81.0 +4.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.0 USD/Metric Tonne +4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.2 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.6 +8.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.4 +1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 +3.0 basis points
• 92.6%(unch.) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 64.2%(-3.6 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 253 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -5/100K people
• 47% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my transport/technology/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took some profits in emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• The Ugly, Expensive Plan to Bring Green Power to China’s Megacities.
• Biden Weighs Russian Banking Sanctions If Putin Invades Ukraine.
• Ukraine Angers Russia by Buying Turkish Drones and Wants To Get Its Hands On More.
• Why Russia-Ukraine Tensions Are So Hard to Defuse.  
• The World's Relentless Demand for Chips Turns Deadly in Malaysia.  
• Sand and Soldiers Mix as Troops Move In to Protect Cancun Tourists.  
• World's Most Indebted Oil Company to Sell up to $1 Billion in Bonds.  
• Asia Stocks Rise After China Action, U.S. Gains: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher After Surging on Signs Omicron Angst Overdone.    
• China Property Downturn, IMF on Australia, India Rate Decision: Eco Day.
• Halliburton Sees World Headed for Oil Scarcity Amid Spending Cut.  
• Initial Hospital Data in Omicron Epicenter Shows Milder Disease.  
• Bulls Beware. The $1.7 Trillion Tech Rout May Not Be Over.  
• Traders Find Troubling Clues in VIX to More Stock Turmoil Ahead.  
• Richard Bookstaber on the Big Structural Risk in the Market Right Now.

Wall Street Journal:

• China Increasingly Obscures True State of Its Economy to Outsiders.
• Chinese Internet-Stock Rout Continues.
• Inflation, Falling Unemployment Prompt Fed Pivot.
• Elon Musk on What Lies Ahead in Tech.
• Bill de Blasio’s Parting Insult. He mandates vaccines for all workers in one last swipe at New York.
• China Evergrande’s Managed Restructuring Is Under Way; Shares Hit 11-Year Low.
• Kentucky Derby Winner Medina Spirit Dies After Workout.
• Intel to List Shares in Mobileye Unit.
• SEC Opens Probe Into Tesla Involving Solar-Cell Activity.
• In Ghislaine Maxwell Trial, Second Woman Testifies About Alleged Sexual Abuse.

Fox News: 

• Another CNN anchor accused of inserting himself into investigation days after network fired only star.
• Devin Nunes set to retire to pursue new opportunity he couldn't 'refuse'.

NY Post:

• Ghislaine Maxwell Trial: Live Updates from Day 5.
  

CNBC.com:

• ‘The chart says it all’: Piper Sandler warns investors against Chinese stocks.
• MongoDB shares jump as revenue growth accelerates.

Zero Hedge:

• "Absolute And Unmitigated Liars": Former DC National Guard Official Says Generals Fabricated January 6th Account. 
• Aramco Chief Warns Of "Social Unrest" If Fossil Fuels Are Abandoned Too Quickly.
• Visualizing The Uneven Fallout Of The Inflation Surge.
• Security Heightened At Major Store Chains After Series Of 'Flash Mob' Robberies.
• Survey Finds More Than Half Of Bitcoin Investors Got In During 2021.
• Chris Cuomo Claims CNN’s Jeff Zucker Knew About His Involvement With Andrew Cuomo Scandal.
• Oregon Moves To Make Indoor Mask Mandate Permanent.
• Devin Nunes Leaving Congress To Become Trump Media SPAC CEO.
• Mish: Fauci And Biden Are Medical Hypocrites & A Political Disgrace.
• Too many put lovers around.
• So Much For Fixing Supply Chains: A Record 96 Containerships Are Waiting To Dock At SoCal Ports.
• The Bottom Is Far Lower Than Anyone Believes Possible.
• Stocks Erase Payrolls Puke, Bonds Battered, & Crypto Bounces Back.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• WHOA! Jen Psaki Gets IRATE When Asked about Hunter Biden Laptop and Biden Family Corruption – Backroom Deals with Chinese (VIDEO).
• DEVELOPING: McConnell in Private Talks with Schumer to Waive Filibuster to Raise Debt Ceiling – McCarthy, Several Republican Senators Push Back.
• Massachusetts Hospital Fires 200 Employees For Not Getting Covid Vaccine.
• JUST IN: GOP Rep. Devin Nunes Resigns From Congress to Become CEO of Trump’s Media Company.
• Italy Restricts Public Life For Unvaxxed with New Covid “Super Green Pass”.
• FOIA: Newly Released ICE Data Reveals Deportations Have Dropped By 90% Overall Under Borderless Biden Regime.
• New Study: ZERO Deaths From COVID Among Healthy Children — Why Are They Forced To Take Dangerous Vaccine?
• 7-Year-Old Child Allegedly Suffers Stroke and Brain Hemorrhage One Week After Receiving Pfizer COVID-19 Shot (VIDEO).
• Mayor de Blasio Announces Forced Vaccines for All Private Companies and Forced Vaccines for All Children Ages 5-11 if They Want to Eat Out.
• Revealed: Feds Are Investigating Trump’s Media Company While They Ignore Hunter Biden’s Laptop and Shady Deals with China, Russia, Ukraine.
• 81 Million Votes: Devastating Poll Shows Just 22% of Americans Want Joe Biden to Run Again.
• More Police Officers Have Been Shot and Killed This Year Than Any Other Year.

The Epoch Times:

• US Announces Diplomatic Boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics Over Rights Abuses.
• China’s Think-Tank Warns of Economic Slowdown Amid Property Sector Predicament.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 672,372 (US) Reports Through November 26, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.0 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 51.75 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.28 -.07%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,022.0 +80.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.3 -1.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%.

• S&P 500 futures +.25%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AZO)/21.08
• (CONN)/.60
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.64
• (CASY)/2.93
• (CHPT)/.-13
• (PLAY)/.13
• (SFIX)/-.14
• (TOL)/2./50
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Oct. is estimated at -$66.8B versus -$80.9B in Sept.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Oct. is estimated to fall to $25.0B versus $29.913B in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China export data, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Barclays Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Truist Industrials/Services Summit, Citi Consumer Conference and the Goldman Financial Services Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.