Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.5 +2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  87.0 +3.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.8 -.08%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,769.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.9 -.67%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.29%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BCO)/.94
• (CHH)/.89
• (CTXS)/1.22
• (DBD)/-.21
• (EBIX)/.52
• (FOXA)/.88
• (H)/-.42
• (IGT)/.32
• (NCLH)/-1.41
• (PTON)/-.94
• (WB)/.46
  

After the Close:

• (BIRD)/-.12
• (BOOT)/1.31
• (COIN)/.86
• (EA)/1.43
• (HRB)/3.81
• (OXY)/2.03
• (RBLX)/-.21
• (TTD)/.14
• (U)/-.08
• (WYNN)/-1.15

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to fall to 92.9 versus 93.2 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Goldman Industrials/Materials Conference, Citi Energy/Utilities/Tech Conference, (DISH) analyst day, (MGA) business update, (WDC) investor day, the (FTNT) analyst day and the (MDLZ) investor update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 12.6% of Issues Advancing, 84.5% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 687 New Lows
• 28.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,864.0 -361.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,057 -1.1%
  
• Vix 33.7 +11.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.09 -4.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.78 +104.6%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• China Premier Warns of ‘Grave’ Jobs Situation as Lockdowns Weigh. 
• China Stimulus Fails to Ignite Housing Sales Over Key Holiday
• Vanishing Value Trade Puts Emerging Markets at Risk of Fed Shock.
• Ukraine Latest: Mariupol Siege Dwindles to Plant’s ‘Dead Men’.   
• Peso Is Poised for Deeper Drop as Marcos Jr. Eyes Presidency.  
• ECB’s Rehn Wants July Rate Hike as Second-Round Effects Seen.
• U.S. Futures, Bonds Decline Amid Fragile Sentiment: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Declines as Traders Weigh G-7 Crude Ban, Saudi Price Cuts
• Saudis Cut Oil Prices from Record Highs Amid China Lockdowns.  
• As Wheat Prices Soar, Africa Pivots to Cheaper Alternatives.
  
• Pelosi Says ‘We Have to’ Pass $33 Billion Ukraine Aid Package.
• Bill Gates Says Economy ‘Bears’ Have Strong Argument on Slowdown.  
• U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.27%, Highest Since 2009.
• Bitcoin Breaches Key Level; Do Kwon-Backed Stablecoin Slips.
• Bankers Quit Jobs for Shot at Riches in ‘Wall Street of Crypto’.
• Colleges Are Launching TikTok Classes for Influencers Making $5,000 a Post.
• A Texas Tale of Tinder, Millions in Stolen Crypto and Murder.  
• Biden Taps Democrats’ Abortion Fury as Midterm Wipeout Looms.  
• Lockheed CEO Says Supply Chain Must ‘Crank Up’ to Build Javelins.  
• Day Trader Army Loses All the Money It Made in Meme-Stock Era.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hospitals Look to Raise Treatment Costs as Nurses’ Salaries Increase.
• Tech Industry’s Epic 2-Year Run Falters.
• Latest Updates: Jill Biden Makes Unannounced Visit to Ukraine.
• Embattled Ukraine Soldiers in Mariupol Say They Will Fight to the End.
• Market’s Slide Has Already Changed Investor Behavior.
• Electricity Shortage Warnings Grow Across U.S.
• With Higher Pay, Better Hours, Teens Jump Into Hot Job Market. 
• The Inflationary April Jobs Report. Employers added workers, but labor participation fell.

Fox News: 

• Report reveals where Supreme Court majority vote allegedly stands now on overturning Roe v. Wade.
• Liberals celebrate protests outside SCOTUS justices' homes, churches: 'Mass Resistance'.
• Russian official claims swift destruction of NATO if nuclear escalation occurs.
• Fauci reportedly frustrated about optics of WH Correspondents' Dinner.

CNBC:

• Stocks could see more tumult next week, especially if bond yields continue to scream higher.
• G-7 leaders mark VE Day stressing unity, support for Ukraine.
• Ford is selling 8 million shares of once high-flying EV maker Rivian, sources say. 
• Bitcoin drops below $35,000 over the weekend, extending Friday’s losses. 

Zero Hedge:

• No Matter What Weird Language Biden Prefers, Today Is Still Mothers' Day.
• All Civilians Have Exited Azovstal Plant As Holdout Fighters Say Final Days Are 'Hellish Reality Show'.
• Make Twitter Great Again.
• Russia's Victory Day Could Be A Crucial Moment For Oil.
• Ukraine Grain Strain: Almost 25 Million Tonnes Blocked From Export.
• The Battery Boom Will Redraw Geopolitical Maps.
• Goldman Trader: The State Of The Market Is To Bleed To Lower Lows Interrupted, On Occasion, By Vicious Short Squeezes.
• Is Auto-Inflation The Key To Understanding Markets?
• Pro-Abortion Activists Target Homes Of Justices Kavanaugh And Roberts.
• Hedge Fund CIO: "We're On Our Own Now, Without A Fed Safety Net. It's A Sobering Reality".
• How To Kill A Zombie? Positive Real Yields Leave Record Number Of Biotechs Trading Below Cash.
• 3 American Tourists Found Dead In Mysterious "Health Emergency" At Bahamas Resort.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Weekend News Round Up.
• TME Sunday - warming up for another unchanged week?
• The World Is "Crying Out For Diesel"; Product Tankers Could Win Big.
• Duck And Cover.
• Western Banks Brace For $10 Billion Hit Over Russia Exit.
• Peak Inflation And Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors.

MarketWatch.com:       

• Will Fed go too far? Dow’s violent swings put investors on lookout for recession signals.

NewsMax:     

• Dozens Feared Dead as Russian Shell Hits Ukrainian School.
• Russia Retreats From Kharkiv, Blows Up Bridges.
• Kissinger Warns of Putin Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• George Soros Drops $1 Million Into Stacey Abrams’ Campaign for Georgia Governor.
• SURPRISE! Leadership At Joe Biden’s ‘Disinformation Governance Board’ Has Ties To George Soros. 
• Study Finds More Than 25% Increase Emergency Cardiovascular Events in 16–39 Age Group During COVID-19 Vaccination Rollout in Israel. 
• HUGE UPDATE: Tech Giants Are Censoring, Blacklisting and Banning Posts on the “2000 Mules” Ballot Trafficking Documentary Across Social Media Platforms
• Only Approved Speech Will Be Allowed: YouTube-Google Censor Judicial Watch and Newsmax over Biden Corruption Video — Lock Out Judicial Watch for a Week.
• NOTE TO STACEY ABRAMS – FIND A GOOD LAWYER: True the Vote Announces They Are Releasing Addresses of ALL Ballot Trafficking Stash Houses. 
• HERE’S WHAT’S NEXT: True the Vote Is Going to Pull the “Ripcord” – They’re Releasing ALL of Their Data – Organize Your Teams Today — And Donate to TruetheVote.org.
• Investigator Gregg Phillips: FOX’s Lawyers Are Keeping “2000 Mules” Off of the Channel (VIDEO).
• Taliban Orders Adult Afghan Women to Wear Head-to-Toe Burka in Public.
• The FDA Finally Admits that COVID-19 Should Be Treated Like the Flu.
• “At the End of the Day, We are at War… We Are at War with Russia” Democrat Lawmaker Confirms Biden Regime Has Entered a War with Nuclear-Armed Russia (VIDEO).
• Ignored by the Fake News Media: Crowd of Thousands Cheer and Roar for President Donald Trump at Kentucky Derby.
• “2000 Mules” Virtual Premiere Tonight at 8 PM ET — Documentary Reveals 2020 Election Fraud, Stolen Election.
• FBI and Democrat Leaders Ignore Leftist Hooligans Protesting Outside Homes of Conservative SCOTUS Justices — A Criminal Act with Up to 1 Year in Prison.
• Justice Kavanaugh’s Neighbor Teacher Lacie Wooten-Holway Organized the Pro-Abortion Protest Outside of His Home Saturday …Update: It was Not the First Time.
• Pro-Abortion Protesters March on Homes of Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh and Chief Justice Roberts.
• Can’t Make This Up: Fake News CNN Warns the Far Right Is Calling for Violence Following Leaked Roe v. Wade Decision… Is Chris Wray’s FBI Plotting Again?

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Eternal Spring’: The Story of 18 Brave Chinese Who Tapped Into State TV to Air Uncensored News in China.

Twitter:

• @aginnt - Bill Gates admits that shutting down schools was a bad call; it didn’t stop case growth and the education deficit will take years to recover from. Lockdown skeptics were right again and punished for it. (video)
• @zerosum24 - China and Ukraine announce partnership. This guy reportedly missed a few covid tests. (video) Shanghai Kung Pao spice. (video) “I’m the government and I’m here to help.” From Shanghai. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 813,020 Reports(+2,850 from prior week) Through April 29th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.75 +1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +2.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.17 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,260.0 +35.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.5 +2.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.3%.
• S&P 500 futures -1.0%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/9.16
• (DUK)/1.34
• (ELAN)/.35
• (JLL)/2.14
• (RIDE)/-.45
• (THS)/-.52
• (TSN)/1.86
  

After the Close:

• (DDD)/.00
• (AMC)/-.68
• (BLNK)/-.48
• (HI)/.99
• (IAC)/-.65
• (LPSN)-.44
• (MCHP)/1.25
• (RNG)/.34
• (TREX)/.54
• (UPST)/.53
• (XPO)/.93

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a +1.7% gain in February.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Exports/Imports report, BofA Healthcare Conference, (WDC) industry analyst day and the (JKHY) analyst conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Loyalists to Vote in Hong Kong’s One-Horse Election Race.  
• Gazprom Tries to Reassure Europe Clients They Can Still Buy Gas.
  
• Ukraine Latest: First Phase of Mariupol Evacuation Is Completed.  
• Cancun Nightclub Shooting Leaves at Least One Dead, Injures Six.  
• Iraq Moves to Implement Court Rule on Kurdistan Oil Operations.
• Russia Can’t Shake Default Risk After Last-Minute Bond Payment.
  
• Nigeria Is First Nation to Ground Flights as Fuel Costs Soar.
• Famous Volatility ETFs Are Back After a Wild Week on Wall Street.
• Brutal Stock Selloff Is a Multitude of Bear Cases Coming True.
• Plenty of Catalysts to Help Push Treasury Rates Above 2018 Highs.
  
• Charting the Global Economy: Fed Leads Rate Hike-Heavy Week.
  
• China’s Covid Lockdowns Disrupt Global Supply Chains: Eco Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• New Grads Are in Demand. What Do They Want?
• Kushner’s New Fund to Invest Saudi Money in Israel.
• Russia Says It Is Targeting Weapons Coming From West.
• Consumers Spearhead Recovery, but Data Signal Potential Change. 
• Chinese Spies Violate U.S. Sovereignty and Americans’ Rights. Federal officials need to step up investigation and prosecution of Beijing’s Operation Sky Net.
• Soaring Demand for Palm Oil Puts Rainforests at Risk Again.
• War in Europe, China’s Covid Battle Boost U.S.’s Business Appeal.
• Oil Prices Top $100, Yet Some Big U.S. Frackers Let Production Fall.
• TikTok’s Work Culture: Anxiety, Secrecy and Relentless Pressure.
• The Companies Paying Travel Costs for Abortions: Tesla, Amazon, Citi on Small but Growing List.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (ORLY), (MNRO), (GPC), (UTI), (CPRT), (SNA), (GRAB), (UBER), (DAL), (AAL) and (BKNG).
• Had bearish commentary on .

Fox News:

• Parents outraged over how class assignment portrays Republicans.
• THE 'XXX' FILES: Repairman reveals material he found on Hunter Biden's laptop, explicit password.

CNBC:

• JetBlue Airways faces a quarter-century crossroads after Spirit rejects its takeover offer.
• Employees everywhere are organizing. Here’s why it’s happening.
• Stocks could see more tumult next week, especially if bond yields continue to scream higher.
• Diesel fuel is in short supply as prices surge — Here’s what that means for inflation.

Zero Hedge:

• Taliban Orders All Afghan Women To Cover Faces In Public, Taking Country Back To Pre-2001.
• Courts Can't Be "Bullied" Into Delivering Outcomes People Demand: Clarence Thomas.
• Watch: Autonomous Chinese Drone Swarm Flies Through Forest While Hunting For Humans. 
• Poor Rail Service Threatens US Economy, Shippers Tell Federal Regulators.
• CDC Investigating 109 Mysterious Hepatitis Cases In Children, Including 5 Deaths.
• Used Car Prices Are Crashing At A Near Record Pace.
• States Sue Biden Administration For 'Pressuring And Colluding' With Big Tech To Censor Free Speech.
• The Triumph Of Natural Immunity.
• Peter Grandich: "Situation Is Beyond Fed's Control" As Recession Unstoppable.
• TME Saturday: Recession, a lot of selling and one extreme BUY signal.
• Biden Signs New $150 Million Military Aid Package For Ukraine.
• What Happens When Complexity Unravels?
• Cathie Wood And The Definition Of Investing Insanity.
• Life Expectancy Continues To Fall In The EU.
• Keep Calm & Censor On: Musk Summoned To UK Parliament To Answer For His Pledge To Restore Free Speech.
• The Dangerous American Game Of Helping Kill Russian Generals.
• North Korea Fires 'Sub-Launched Ballistic Missile'; 15th Test This Year.
• What a week.
• The Great Currency Reset And Why Europe Is Trapped.
• Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst: "Today's Bear Market Ends In October With The S&P At 3,000".
• The Pragmatic American: "Can 'We, The People' Be Trusted?".
• President Xi Insists China's COVID Lockdowns Will "Stand The Test Of Time".
• 2000 Mules Documentary Provides Compelling Evidence That 2020 Election Was Stolen,.
• China Has 'Financial Nuclear Bombs' If West Levies Russia-Style Sanctions, Beijing Warns.
• 80 'Suspicious Actors' And 'Material Witnesses' Under Scrutiny By Jan. 6 Defense Attorneys.
• Nantucket Gives The OK For Going Topless On Its Beaches.
• Beijing Aggression Has Turned Australia Into Crucial Pillar Of US Defense: Expert.
• All Hell Breaks Out At Apple China Factory As Workers Clash With Guards Over Lockdowns.
• Former Tesla Engineer Aims To Build Next Generation Electric Battery Material Plant In The US By 2024.
• Nationwide Baby Formula Shortage Hits "Shocking" Levels, Sparking Panic Among Parents.
• White House Defends Planned Left-Wing Protest At Homes Of Supreme Court Justices.
• The Idea Of A Four-Day Work-Week Is Spreading Throughout Asia.
• Large Group Of Chinese Jets & Bombers Buzz Taiwan With Island On Heightened Alert.
• The License To Leak: How Years Of Attacks On The Court Created a "By Any Means" Mentality.
• Shocking Consumer Credit Numbers: Everyone Is Maxing Out Their Credit Card Ahead Of The Recession.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: NFP changes nothing; SPX posts smallest weekly loss in five weeks.
• Stocks Suffer Longest Losing Streak In 10 Years, Long-Bond Battered As Fed-Cred Crumbles.

MarketWatch.com:      

• Based on 19 bear markets in the last 140 years, here’s where the current downturn may end, says Bank of America.
  
• Most Americans were feeling gloomy even before last week’s dramatic dive in stocks — and now they fear a prolonged bear market.
  
• The stock market selloff is in ‘liquidation’ stage. Why it needs to get ‘hotter’ before it burns out  
• Opinion: Executives are so bearish, they’re not even buying their own companies’ shares at steep discounts.
• ‘The pandemic boom in home sales is over’: Mortgage rates soar to highest level since 2009 as the Fed pressures the housing market.

NewsMax:

• WH Denies Reports That US Intel Sunk Russian Ships, Killed Generals.
• Ukraine Prime Minister: Russia Plans to Announce 'Full-Fledged War' on May 9.
• Kremlin: Poland Might Be a Source of Threat. 
• Barnette: Trump "Gets to Be Wrong" on Oz.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Alarming: Two Electric Buses Spontaneously Explode, Entire Fleet Taken Off the Road – Biden Should Watch This.
• EXCLUSIVE: WHO Propaganda Outlet from France Attacks Gateway Pundit Reporting and Dr. Li Who Claims COVID Was Created in a Lab and Released Intentionally by China.
• Local News Reporting “Empty Shelves” At Food Banks — Is It Time To Prepare?
• Kari Lake Reveals Why She Is So Popular – The Future of the Populist-Republican Party (VIDEO).
• Creepy Bill Gates Plans to Hire a 3,000-Person Social Media Team to Push Vaccines and Suppress Any Differing Information.
• Biden Regime Warns Covid Could Infect 100 Million This Fall… Just in Time For the Midterm Elections.
• BIDENOMICS: CNBC’s Rick Santelli Says Economy Is “Doomed” If Leaders Keep Bucking Fossil Fuels.
• Georgia Governor Kemp, Who Signed Off on Corrupt 2020 Election Results, Brings on Former VP Pence Staffer to Help with His Campaign.
• ARROGANT CORRUPTION: To This Day Georgia’s Secretary of State Raffensperger IGNORES Multiple Issues Identified by President Trump’s Auditor and Georgia State Senator and former Judge William Ligon from the 2020 Election.

The Epoch Times:

• China Locks Down City of 10 Million Amid New COVID Outbreak, Apple Supplier Takes a Hit.

Twitter:

• @OzraeliAvi - How many people did they BAN from this platform for pointing out EXACTLY what Bill Gates is finally admitting? Listen. Then share it. We were abused for two years because evil liars like Gates pushed fear and cancelled anyone questioning the narrative. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 813,020 Reports(+2,850 from prior week) Through April 22nd, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).