Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 66.3% of Issues Advancing, 30.7% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 105 New Lows
• 24.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,990.0 +111.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,653.0 -.38%
  
• Vix 28.6 -2.7%
• Total Put/Call .95 -22.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 +10.6%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• China’s Wang Yi Says US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy ‘Doomed to Fail’.  
• Ukraine Latest: Poland Wants Fast EU Candidate Status for Kyiv.
• Fuel Poverty Looms For Many as UK Wavers on Windfall Tax Plan.    
• After $5 Trillion Rout, Emerging Markets Seek Turnaround Signal.
• Saudi Wealth Fund Takes $1.5 Billion Stake in Alwaleed’s Firm.
• US Futures Rise, Caution in Asia on Growth Woes: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies as Traders Weigh Tight Gasoline Market, Weak Growth.
• Biden Urges Hyundai, Samsung to Embrace Union Workers.
• After Meltdown, Tech-Bottom Signals Have Yet to Scream ‘Buy Now’. 
• Consumers Defy Inflation to Support Economy. For How Long?
• Dangerous DIY Baby Formula Recipes Go Viral as Parents Get Desperate.
• Stock Selloff to Intensify as Fresh 10% Plunge Looms, Survey Finds.

Wall Street Journal:

• Small Businesses Lose Confidence in U.S. Economy
• Latest Updates From the War
• Poland’s President Addresses Ukraine’s Parliament, Calls for Removal of All Russian Troops
• Rising Risk of Recession Creates New Headache for Biden.
• Stock Market Bottom Remains Elusive Despite Deepening Decline. 
• Who Rigged the Census? Under-counts may have cost Florida and Texas another House seat.
• Why Is the FDA Seizing Baby Formula During a Baby Formula Shortage? With trusted sellers shut down, parents are being driven to untested suppliers.

Fox News: 

• President Biden sounds alarm on monkeypox outbreak, says 'everybody' should be concerned.
• Trump reacts to bombshell testimony that Clinton OK'd spreading Russia lie. 
• President Biden 'on the verge' of making significant 'blunder' with China, warns columnist.
• Stacey Abrams has harsh take on state she wants to elect her.
• George Soros throws $1M behind Stacey Abrams' second run for the governor's mansion.

CNBC:

• Stocks head for another potentially treacherous week, as a slew of retailers report earnings.
• McKinsey & Co. worked with Russian weapons maker even as it advised the Pentagon.
• More people are dying on U.S. roads, even as cars get safer. Here’s why that’s a hard problem to fix.
• Goodbye, American soft power: McDonald’s exiting Russia after 32 years is the end of an era. 
• Oxfam slams billionaire pandemic ‘bonanza’ as millions face extreme poverty. 
• SpaceX looks to raise $1.7 billion in new funding, boosting its valuation to $127 billion. 

Zero Hedge:

• 'Imagine The Compliance': Pfizer CEO Pitches Davos Elites On WiFi Microchip Pills.
• China Launches Military Exercises In South China Sea As Biden Arrives In Asia.
• Central Bankers' Narratives Are Falling Apart.
• "Extremely Tense" Beer Bottle Shortage Emerges Ahead Of Germany's Oktoberfest.
• These Are The Most-Downloaded Apps So Far In 2022.
• Monkeypox: Truth Versus Fearporn.
• Belgium Begins Monkeypox Quarantines, Biden Warns "Everybody Should Be Concerned".
• Bloated Inventories Hit Walmart, Target And Other Retailers' Profits, Trucking Demand.
• 2022 Has Been The Worst Year Ever For Hedge Funds, Who Are Now Massively Shorting To Chase Stocks Lower.
• Cracks Appear As Subprime Borrowers Miss Loan Payments Amid Recession Threats.
• How Did Mueller's $40 Million Trump-Russia Investigation 'Miss' Hillary's Hoax? 
• Hedge Fund CIO: If We Can't Bounce After Being Down 7 Weeks In A Row, Something Is Seriously Wrong.
• Goldman Trader: After A Brutal Week, Here Is The "Cat And Mouse" Question That Needs To Be Answered.
• Profits And Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation.
• Ray Dalio: Gold Reduces Risks, Enhances Returns, Belongs In Your Savings.
• "The Fed Has No Idea How Bad It Is Out There" So Here's Some Context...
• Rubio Accuses Google Of Election Bias, Censoring Campaign Emails.
• Did The Biden Administration Just Give A Boost To The Hunter Biden Defense?
• U.S. Automakers Forced To Hike Prices Due To Rising Raw Material Costs.
• DOJ Announces Hate Crimes And 'Bias-Related' Initiatives Including Reporting Hotline.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Weekend News Round Up.
• "We Have No Idea How This Will Be Used" - AI Gun Detection Gaining Popularity In US.
• "No Quick Fix" - Severe Pilot Shortage Reduces Flights, Sends Ticket Prices Soaring.
• Clinton Supporter Who Led Disinformation Board Until Resignation Says She Wasn’t A Partisan Actor.
• Fed Mission Accomplished: Real-Time Indicators Show The Labor Market Just Cratered.

MarketWatch.com:         

• Elon Musk called ESG a scam — did the Tesla chief do investors a favor?

NewsMax:    

• Pummeled by Russian Offensive, Ukraine Rules Out Ceasefire.
• Fate of 2,500 Ukrainian POWs from Steel Plant Stirs Concern.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Antifa Terrorist Convicted of 4 Counts of Attempted Manslaughter for Shooting at Driver Trying to Flee Rioters — Gets NO Prison Time — Shot and Injured 2 Fellow Protesters.
• “We Are Literally Experimenting on Children – There’s Going to Be Problems” – Bill Maher Takes on Dangers of the Radical Trans Movement (VIDEO).
• Jair Bolsonaro Says Brazil Will NOT Sign Globalist WHO Pandemic Treaty.
• Democrat Gubernatorial Candidate Stacey Abrams Says Georgia is “the Worst State in the Country to Live” (AUDIO).
• More Evidence Suggests “Global Warming Ran Out of Steam” Years Ago – Experts Argue Global Temps Have Remained Flat For 20 Years.
• 30-Year-Old Brooklyn Half Marathon Runner Collapses and Dies After Crossing Finish Line – Possibly Suffers from Cardiac Arrest.
• VoterGA to Hold Press Conference on Monday Disclosing Legal Actions to Over 100 Counties Missing Drop Box Videos. 
• Analyst Warns World Has Only 10 Weeks of Wheat Supplies Left in Storage.

The Epoch Times:

• Shanghai’s Economy Plunged 61.5 Percent in April, Lockdown Caused Lack of Confidence in Industries: Expert.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 817,537 Reports(+4,517 from prior week) Through May 13th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.21 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,880.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.8 -2.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.15%.
• S&P 500 futures +1.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (AAP)/3.55
• (ZM)/.88
• (NDSN)/2.29
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's George speaking, Germany IFO Guidance report, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, Berenberg Conference, (JPM) investor day, HC Wainwright Life Sciences Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference, HC Wainwright Investment Conference and the (VSTO) investor day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Latest: Biden Signs Aid Bill; Erdogan Confers on NATO.   
  
• Lagarde Says Crypto Is ‘Worth Nothing’ and Should Be Regulated.  
• ECB’s Euro Talk Goes Unheeded by Traders Running From Risk.
  
• French Debt Levels Back in Focus as Government Gets to Work.
• A $5 Trillion ‘Wealth Shock’ Is Cracking Americans’ Nest Eggs. 
  
• More Horrors Await After $550 Billion Retail Earnings Meltdown.
• U.S. Baby-Formula Airlift Due to Begin With Flight From Europe.  
• Amazon Aims to Sublet, End Warehouse Leases as Online Sales Cool.  
• Treasuries’ Fierce Rally Gets Reality Check in Hawkish Fed Talk.  
• A Worker Shortage Is Driving US Nursing Homes to the Brink of Collapse.  
• US Corporate Credit Spreads Hover Around `Danger Zone' .
  
• Global Business Is Enduring a Synchronized Slowdown: Eco Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Investors Dare to Dip Back Into Bonds.
• Apple Looks to Boost Production Outside China.
• War and Disease Often Go Hand in Hand.
• The Market Is Melting Down and People Are Feeling It. ‘My Stomach Is Churning All Day.’.
• Jif Issues Peanut Butter Recall Over Possible Salmonella Contamination.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (WRBY) and (BIRD).
• Had bearish commentary on (CRWD), (SHOP) and (LYFT).

Fox News:

• US military chief delivers direct message to West Point grads about 'increasing' potential for global war.
• Trump says he'll 'never' get 'reputation fully back' after Clinton camp bombshell.

Zero Hedge:

• Top Putin Aide Predicts "Global Famine" By The End Of This Year.
• 'Imagine The Compliance': Pfizer CEO Pitches Davos Elites On WiFi Microchip Pills.
• WHO Warns Monkeypox Could "Accelerate" During Summer, CDC Alerts US Doctors As Virus Reaches 13 Countries.
• Bill Maher Slams Gender Reassignment For Kids, LGBTQ+ Everything.
• Monkeypox Was A Table-Top Simulation Only Last Year.
• "We're In A Crisis": American Farmer Warns Of Impending Food Shortages .
• Hillary Clinton's Trump/Russia Media Strategy Revealed In Day 4 Of Sussmann Trial.
• Economic Indicators, Led By Mortgage Rates, Are Flashing Red.
• Japan Nuclear Regulator Greenlights Radiactive Water Release From Fukushima.
• Dem Rep. Joyce Beatty Blames "White Supremacy Replacement Theorist" For Shooting Carried Out By Black Suspect.
• "Devout" Catholic Nancy Pelosi Banned From Receiving Holy Communion Over Abortion Support.
• NATO Plans To Rip-Off Americans Even More With Sweden & Finland Set To Join.
• Let Them Eat Bugs... How Out-Of-Touch Elites Reveal Their Contempt, & What Comes Next.
• Conrad Black: The Swamp Must Be Drained.
• Louisiana's Department Of Education Shifts From CRT To American Exceptionalism.
• Anti-Government Protests Spread In Iran After Flour-Based Food Staples Jump 300%.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Buy the dip or sell the ‘rip’?: What’s ahead for stock investors as ‘sticky’ inflation fears heighten consumer concern.
• It’s crunch time for the push to ban Congress from trading stocks.

NewsMax:

• Ukraine Warns Only Talks Can End War as Russia Cuts Finland Gas.
• Putin 'Blackmailing the World' and Threatening Famine.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BIG ARIZONA FRAUD UPDATE: Law Enforcement Raids Nonprofits In ‘2000 Mules’ Ballot Trafficking Investigation – “Like Tweety Birds, They Sang”.
• This Is Weird: Globalist Group NTI Predicted Likelihood of MonkeyPox Outbreak in Their November 2021 Report.
• Former Columbia University Administrator Claims She Was Fired for Not Favoring and Bending Rules for Foreign Students.
• Here is the Full List of US Attendees to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
• Senate Democrats Introduce New Gun Control Bill – Requires DOJ License for Gun Purchases with a 5-Year License Limit – And Government Power of Confiscation.
• Wall Street Journal: Dems Stole Congressional Seats From Red States With “Rigged” Census — Calls For Investigation.
• China Buzzes Taiwan with Fighter Jets and Bombers and US Bases in Japan as Joe Biden Travels to South Korea.
• Leftist Group Launches Recruiting Program to Ensure Leftists Are Enlisted to Serve as Poll Workers Like in 2020.

The Epoch Times:

• Biden’s Job Disapproval Rate Among Hispanics Hits 60%: Poll.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 817,537 Reports(+4,517 from prior week) Through May 13th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Moody’s Downgrades Ukraine as Drawn Out War Raises Debt Risk.
  
• Wall Street Is as Baffled by Stocks Now as It Has Ever Been.
  
• Why Your Index Fund Won’t Protect You From Tech’s Collapse.
  
• Tesla Weighs on S&P 500 as Twitter Waffling, China Hit Stock.
• Novogratz Warns ‘Picking Bottoms Is Dangerous’ as Bitcoin Slide Resumes.
• Ethereum Co-Founder Buterin Says He’s No Longer a Billionaire.
• American Axle Is Exploring a Sale.  
• Summers Warns on ‘Hipster Antitrust’ Push Eyeing Private Equity.  
• It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome.  
• ‘It’s a Buyers Strike’: Investors Weigh In on Bear Market Plunge. 
• Deere Plunges Most Since 2008 on Supply Chain Snarls, Inflation.
• Retailer Rout Erased $500 Billion, Stirs Worry of More Ahead.

Wall Street Journal:

• Index has fallen seven weeks in a row.
• What Causes a Bear Market?
• Surging Dollar Raises Possibility of Euro Parity.
• China Unexpectedly Cuts Key Rate as Growth Crumbles.
• Recession Trade Is On as Market Pain Goes Beyond Tech.
• Germany Warns Falling Euro Could Push Inflation Even Higher.
• Why the Baby-Formula Market Is a Mess: Low Competition, High Regulation.
• Ukraine Will Fight Until All Russian Forces Expelled, Military Intelligence Chief Says.
• Mysterious Hepatitis Outbreak in Children Spurs Global Race for Answers.

Fox News:

• The end of Title 42 will create ‘chaos all across the border,' former ICE director warns.
• School board group lays blame for viral letter comparing parents to terrorists.
• Biden 'downgraded' US relationship with European country, top diplomat says.

CNBC:

• Recession is ‘likely,’ former SEC chief economist says. Here’s his advice for how to prepare.
• Tech stocks mired in longest weekly losing streak since dot-com bust.
• Bitcoin prices sink, Gary Vee on state of NFT market, Coinbase slashes spending: CNBC Crypto World.
• Stocks head for another potentially treacherous week, as a slew of retailers report earnings.

Zero Hedge:

• 12 Nightmarish Economic Trends That We Should Expect To See During The 2nd Half Of 2022.
• "Who Will Be This Recession's Lehman?": Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst Says "3600 Is The New Bull Case"
• NYC Reports First Suspected Monkeypox Case As WHO Convenes Emergency Meeting.
• Is The Woke Corporate 'Worm' Finally Turning?
• Melvin Capital Investors "Fuming" At Fund's "Fairweather Money Management" Strategy And "Abrupt" Shut Down.
• "Who Cares If Miami Is Underwater In 100 Years" - HSBC Global AM Head Slams "Nut Job" Climate-Alarmists.
• "Anything We Touch Is A Weapon": New US PsyOps Recruitment Video Casts Spotlight On China Threat.
• "I Am Indeed Out For Blood": Musk Says 2016 Hillary Tweet 'Absolutely' Disinformation, Asks Parag To Weigh In.
• Federal Judge Blocks Biden Admin's Termination Of Title 42.
• FBI Lawyer Admits Knowing Clinton Was Behind Trump Allegations Would Have Changed Things.
• Giant Container Ships Are Ruining Everything.
• CEOs Are Quitting Their Jobs At The Fastest Pace On Record.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Spooz fall for a 7th straight week into May's option expiry.
• Biden Admin Places $119 Million Order For Monkeypox Vaccines As Virus Hits US.
• Dow Suffers Longest Losing Streak In 99 Years, Bonds & Bullion Bid.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Junk bonds are showing signs of liquidity strains as the S&P 500 heads into bear market territory.
• ‘Robinhood’ investors are ‘going to get their heads handed to them,’ as bear market takes hold, says ‘Godfather’ of chart analysis.
• Fed’s Bullard says retailers who don’t understand that consumers are stretched thin by inflation are going to get ‘punched in the face’.
• Watch out if you’re male, over 45, and think you know about investing.

NewsMax:

• San Francisco Bishop Bans Pelosi From Communion.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BOMBSHELL VIDEO Shows Same Woman Makes FOUR Trips to Detroit Drop Box In TWO Days… Deposits Stacks Of Ballots — EXCLUSIVE VIDEO.
• AOC Mocks Christians For Opposing Abortion, Rants About How Babies in the Womb Are Not a Life (VIDEO).
• “Makes You Wonder What Else is Fake” – Elon Musk Tweets on the Trump-Russia Media Hoax.
• Another Study Confirms Wearing Masks Increases COVID Infection.
• Brian Kemp Allowed Ballot Traffickers to Steal Georgia Elections TWICE — Gave Us JOE BIDEN and DEM SENATE MAJORITY. 
• Hidden Document Shows Obama Met Dr. Tedros and Terrorist Leaders of Ethiopia in 2014 – Then In 2017 Tedros Elected Head of WHO.
• WHERE IS THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA? Gas Prices Reach Another New All-Time Record High at $4.593/Gallon — 11th Straight All-Time Record High in 11 Days.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Anything We Touch Is a Weapon’: New US Psychological Operations Recruitment Video Casts Spotlight on China Threat.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 817,537 Reports(+4,517 from prior week) Through May 13th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).