Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +.7% 2) Pharma +.1% 3) REITs -.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OM, RAMP, AXON, ARRY, SFM, TH, SILK, TPG, CGBD, META, AKAM and LTH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VICI 2) TH 3) NVTA 4) AKAM 5) CLVS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ARRY 2) AXON 3) KALA 4) HGV 5) LMDX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 33.8% of Issues Advancing, 62.7% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 101 New Lows
• 34.9%(-5.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.6 -4.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,232.6 -.44%
  
• Vix 25.5 -.3%
• Total Put/Call .86 -25.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.37 +29.3% 

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• Europe’s Energy Crunch Will Trigger Years of Shortages and Blackouts.  
• ECB’s Wunsch Says Mild Slowdown Might Mean More Rate Hiking.
• Stocks Eke Out Small Gain Ahead of Midterms Result: Markets Wrap. 
• US Cut Oil Output Forecast Again as Shale Growth Slows Down.
• Tight US Senate Races Set Up Long Wait for Who's in Charge.
• Sam Bankman-Fried’s $16 Billion Fortune Is Eviscerated in Days.
• Cryptocurrencies Plunge as Doubts About FTX-Binance Deal Grow.
• Crypto Retail Investors Rattled as Binance Moves to Acquire FTX.  
• Dollar Is Down, But Not Out, as Fed Prepares for More Rate Hikes.  
• Disney Profit Misses Estimates as Streaming Costs Rise, Ad Sales Soften.  
• Millennium’s Jain Is Stepping Back as Hedge Fund Shuffles Management.  
• Subprime Auto Bonds Hit by Skipped Payments, Falling Used-Car Values.

Wall Street Journal:

• Senate May Be Decided by These Votes.
• Full coverage of the election.
• Pennsylvanians Rush to Correct Mail Ballots After Court Ruling.
• Electorate Deeply Troubled by Inflation, America’s Direction.
• Midterm Senate, House, Governor Races to Watch—Hour by Hour.
• Airline Executives Don’t Expect Cheap Airfares to Come Back Soon.
• Netflix Looks to Live Sports for Growth.
• U.S., China Climate Envoys Rekindle Contact at COP27.
• Zuckerberg Says He Is Accountable as Meta Preps for Mass Layoffs.
• Democrats Pay a Political Price for Going Easy on Crime. But they’re slow to learn. Illinois is about to adopt some of the same policies that failed elsewhere.

Fox News:

• Voters make clear their top issue is the languishing economy.
• Left-wing group braces for worst — blames Manchin before polls close.
• JD Vance has slight lead over Tim Ryan based on Fox News Voter Analysis in race for Ohio Senate.
• Blake Masters, Kari Lake and RNC sue after 'hiccups' at Arizona voting locations.

CNBC.com:

• Disney misses on profit and key revenue segments, warns streaming growth could taper.
• FTX’s token plunges 80% on liquidity concerns, wiping out over $2 billion in value.
• Twitter exec says there will soon be three types of accounts: official, paid, and unlabeled.
• Space company Astra lays off 16% of workforce as it faces rocket development delay, quarterly losses.
• Household energy costs are expected to rise steeply this winter — here’s how you can save.
  

MarketWatch:          

• Debt-ceiling showdown could shake up markets after midterm-election results, analysts say.
  
• The worst outcome for U.S. stocks would be a Democratic sweep of the midterms, Wall Street strategists say.  
• AMC stock tumbles after reporting 12th consecutive quarterly loss.  
• Coinbase stock plunges on news of Binance-FTX merger, which sets up ‘seismic’ change in competition.  
• Homebuilders struggle to find buyers as cancellations by developers rise: ‘The build-for-rent market is going to become increasingly important’.

Zero Hedge:

• Election Night Results: Early Signals To Watch For As Polls Close Across America.
• "Yup": Elon Musk Seemingly Confirms Twitter Employees Sold Verification Badges 'Behind the Scenes'.
• Citadel's Ken Griffin Touts Florida As "Great Environment And Streets Are Safe And Clean".
• Oman's Energy Minister: It's Foolish To Assume Renewables Can Meet Global Demand. 
• China Cancels Top EU Official's High-Profile Video Address For Ukraine War Comments.
• Seniors Feel Cheated As Inflation Dims Their Golden Years.
• China's Headlines Increase Risk Of Market Whipsaws.
• "Monstrosities": New York Has Started Erecting Thousands Of Giant Gray 5G Towers.
• Broken (crypto) markets.
• 'Violence', 'Democracy Itself', & Fetterman's Shorts: The Official 2022 Midterm Election Drinking Game.
• US stocks gained ahead of the US Midterm election results but with price action choppy amid crypto turmoil - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• DeSantis Halts Biden Election Monitors In Florida Polling Locations.
• WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Large Unexpected Crude Build.
• Dollar and yields fall into Midterms while Crypto plunges on exchange anxiety - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Abortion Fails To Rally Men, Older Voters.
• Left-Hand Not Talking To Right-Hand: Quantitative Tightening & Federal Government Spending
• The Shortages Are Coming.
• Crypto Carnage Contagion Slams Stocks; Bonds & Bullion Surge As Dollar-Bulls Purge.

Newsmax:   

• Trump to Newsmax: Will Be 'Very Big Night' — If No Fraud.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Dominion Voting Machines Down In Texas, Arizona, New Jersey – Other Voter Irregularities Reported.
• ‘CBS Mornings’ Spent All Day in Democrat Precincts in Florida and Couldn’t Find One Charlie Crist Supporter (VIDEO).
• CNN Panel Shocked! Exit Polls Spell Trouble For Democrats: 7 in 10 Voters Unhappy with State of Nation and Largely Negative on Biden (VIDEO).
• Elections Director Allows DOJ Into Polling Locations In Pinal County, Arizona.
• “Protest! Protest! Protest!” – President Trump Calls for Protests as Computers and Tabulators CRASH and Long Lines Reported in GOP Areas in Arizona!
• WHAT’S GOING ON? More Democrat Absentee Ballots in Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County than in Philadelphia County Despite There Being 275,000 More Democrats in Philly.
• JUST IN: Guam Finally Flips! Elects Republican as its Delegate to US For the First Time in 30 Years.
• BREAKING: Attorneys File Suit After Ballot Accepted in Georgia County on Loose-Leaf Paper with Security Feature Turned Off in ALL Examined Machines.
• Katie Hobbs Did Not Recuse Herself From Election Duties In Arizona Despite Bi-Partisan Calls, Now We See Why.
• “We’re Going to Have a Great Night” – Trump Addresses Reporters After Casting Vote For DeSantis (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Champaign County Clerk Reports Cyber-Attacks on Servers – Voters Told to Stay in Line.
• “Nothing Is Working” – Arizona Poll Worker Responds to Maricopa County Tabulator Issues – Issues with Machines are Now Reported in Wickenburg, AZ (VIDEO).
• MASSIVE ISSUES REPORTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY: Here Are Several Concerns and Anomalies We Received from our TGP Tips…

The Epoch Times:

• Xi Orders Military to Prepare for War, Unveils New Hypersonic Missile.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 891,607 Reports(+4,043 from prior week) Through October 28th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 181.0 -9.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 -8.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.04 -.03%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.7 +.33%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.91 +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.2 +.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.29%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DHI)/5.15
• (EBIX)/.65
• (HBI)/.27
• (PFGC)/.80
• (RBLX)/-.36
• (SPTN)/.47
• (TTD)/.23
• (WEN)/.23
• (WWW)/.55
  

After the Close:

• (BGS)/.33
• (BYND)/-1.15
• (JAZZ)/4.67
• (PAAS)/-.06
• (RDFN)/-.80
• (RNG)/.51
• (RIVN)/-1.83
• (STE)/1.98
• (WYNN)/-1.01
• (ZIP)/.27
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -66,670 barrels versus a -3,115,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,300,000 barrels versus a -1,257,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -383,330 barrels versus a +427,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.42% versus a +1.7% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, China CPI report, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (OKTA) investor day and the (PSX) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Crypto Crash, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, US Voting Irregularity Concerns, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.9 +2.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.8 -4.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.3 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.33%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.3 +2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +14.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +11.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.3 -.41%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 360.91 +1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 478.0 -20.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 114.20 -1.5% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 355.0 -.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 211.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 194.33 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 270.52 -.01%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 +.50%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 40.75 basis points -4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -55.75 basis points -2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  162.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 129.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.17 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.01 +.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.14% +6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -54.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 88.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 118.2 euros/megawatt-hour +7.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.6 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.5 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.8 +1.6 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.22 -.0:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 16.5 +.0
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .95 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.60% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.09% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.3%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 45.5%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.7%(+1.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -87 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +5.0% 2) Agriculture +2.7% 3) Alt Energy +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TASK, SKYT, TGI, FA, LPSN, FIVN, VRNS, RETA, OSH, SPWR, PLNT, GFS, KSS, EXPD, GTN, ERII, ASH, DD, NXST, FNKO, EVBG, AMGN, VTR, NCLH and SIL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OSPN 2) WEN 3) AFL 4) IGT 5) TTWO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SEDG 2) AMGN 3) PLNT 4) CNHI 5) AAON
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 70.8% of Issues Advancing, 26.1% Declining
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 62 New Lows
• 38.3%(+5.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 50.5 -2.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,348.2 +.5%
  
• Vix 24.3 -.3%
• Total Put/Call .84 -4.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.12 +3.7%