Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• Europe’s Energy Crunch Will Trigger Years of Shortages and Blackouts.  
• ECB’s Wunsch Says Mild Slowdown Might Mean More Rate Hiking.
• Stocks Eke Out Small Gain Ahead of Midterms Result: Markets Wrap. 
• US Cut Oil Output Forecast Again as Shale Growth Slows Down.
• Tight US Senate Races Set Up Long Wait for Who's in Charge.
• Sam Bankman-Fried’s $16 Billion Fortune Is Eviscerated in Days.
• Cryptocurrencies Plunge as Doubts About FTX-Binance Deal Grow.
• Crypto Retail Investors Rattled as Binance Moves to Acquire FTX.  
• Dollar Is Down, But Not Out, as Fed Prepares for More Rate Hikes.  
• Disney Profit Misses Estimates as Streaming Costs Rise, Ad Sales Soften.  
• Millennium’s Jain Is Stepping Back as Hedge Fund Shuffles Management.  
• Subprime Auto Bonds Hit by Skipped Payments, Falling Used-Car Values.

Wall Street Journal:

• Senate May Be Decided by These Votes.
• Full coverage of the election.
• Pennsylvanians Rush to Correct Mail Ballots After Court Ruling.
• Electorate Deeply Troubled by Inflation, America’s Direction.
• Midterm Senate, House, Governor Races to Watch—Hour by Hour.
• Airline Executives Don’t Expect Cheap Airfares to Come Back Soon.
• Netflix Looks to Live Sports for Growth.
• U.S., China Climate Envoys Rekindle Contact at COP27.
• Zuckerberg Says He Is Accountable as Meta Preps for Mass Layoffs.
• Democrats Pay a Political Price for Going Easy on Crime. But they’re slow to learn. Illinois is about to adopt some of the same policies that failed elsewhere.

Fox News:

• Voters make clear their top issue is the languishing economy.
• Left-wing group braces for worst — blames Manchin before polls close.
• JD Vance has slight lead over Tim Ryan based on Fox News Voter Analysis in race for Ohio Senate.
• Blake Masters, Kari Lake and RNC sue after 'hiccups' at Arizona voting locations.

CNBC.com:

• Disney misses on profit and key revenue segments, warns streaming growth could taper.
• FTX’s token plunges 80% on liquidity concerns, wiping out over $2 billion in value.
• Twitter exec says there will soon be three types of accounts: official, paid, and unlabeled.
• Space company Astra lays off 16% of workforce as it faces rocket development delay, quarterly losses.
• Household energy costs are expected to rise steeply this winter — here’s how you can save.
  

MarketWatch:          

• Debt-ceiling showdown could shake up markets after midterm-election results, analysts say.
  
• The worst outcome for U.S. stocks would be a Democratic sweep of the midterms, Wall Street strategists say.  
• AMC stock tumbles after reporting 12th consecutive quarterly loss.  
• Coinbase stock plunges on news of Binance-FTX merger, which sets up ‘seismic’ change in competition.  
• Homebuilders struggle to find buyers as cancellations by developers rise: ‘The build-for-rent market is going to become increasingly important’.

Zero Hedge:

• Election Night Results: Early Signals To Watch For As Polls Close Across America.
• "Yup": Elon Musk Seemingly Confirms Twitter Employees Sold Verification Badges 'Behind the Scenes'.
• Citadel's Ken Griffin Touts Florida As "Great Environment And Streets Are Safe And Clean".
• Oman's Energy Minister: It's Foolish To Assume Renewables Can Meet Global Demand. 
• China Cancels Top EU Official's High-Profile Video Address For Ukraine War Comments.
• Seniors Feel Cheated As Inflation Dims Their Golden Years.
• China's Headlines Increase Risk Of Market Whipsaws.
• "Monstrosities": New York Has Started Erecting Thousands Of Giant Gray 5G Towers.
• Broken (crypto) markets.
• 'Violence', 'Democracy Itself', & Fetterman's Shorts: The Official 2022 Midterm Election Drinking Game.
• US stocks gained ahead of the US Midterm election results but with price action choppy amid crypto turmoil - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• DeSantis Halts Biden Election Monitors In Florida Polling Locations.
• WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Large Unexpected Crude Build.
• Dollar and yields fall into Midterms while Crypto plunges on exchange anxiety - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Abortion Fails To Rally Men, Older Voters.
• Left-Hand Not Talking To Right-Hand: Quantitative Tightening & Federal Government Spending
• The Shortages Are Coming.
• Crypto Carnage Contagion Slams Stocks; Bonds & Bullion Surge As Dollar-Bulls Purge.

Newsmax:   

• Trump to Newsmax: Will Be 'Very Big Night' — If No Fraud.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Dominion Voting Machines Down In Texas, Arizona, New Jersey – Other Voter Irregularities Reported.
• ‘CBS Mornings’ Spent All Day in Democrat Precincts in Florida and Couldn’t Find One Charlie Crist Supporter (VIDEO).
• CNN Panel Shocked! Exit Polls Spell Trouble For Democrats: 7 in 10 Voters Unhappy with State of Nation and Largely Negative on Biden (VIDEO).
• Elections Director Allows DOJ Into Polling Locations In Pinal County, Arizona.
• “Protest! Protest! Protest!” – President Trump Calls for Protests as Computers and Tabulators CRASH and Long Lines Reported in GOP Areas in Arizona!
• WHAT’S GOING ON? More Democrat Absentee Ballots in Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County than in Philadelphia County Despite There Being 275,000 More Democrats in Philly.
• JUST IN: Guam Finally Flips! Elects Republican as its Delegate to US For the First Time in 30 Years.
• BREAKING: Attorneys File Suit After Ballot Accepted in Georgia County on Loose-Leaf Paper with Security Feature Turned Off in ALL Examined Machines.
• Katie Hobbs Did Not Recuse Herself From Election Duties In Arizona Despite Bi-Partisan Calls, Now We See Why.
• “We’re Going to Have a Great Night” – Trump Addresses Reporters After Casting Vote For DeSantis (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Champaign County Clerk Reports Cyber-Attacks on Servers – Voters Told to Stay in Line.
• “Nothing Is Working” – Arizona Poll Worker Responds to Maricopa County Tabulator Issues – Issues with Machines are Now Reported in Wickenburg, AZ (VIDEO).
• MASSIVE ISSUES REPORTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY: Here Are Several Concerns and Anomalies We Received from our TGP Tips…

The Epoch Times:

• Xi Orders Military to Prepare for War, Unveils New Hypersonic Missile.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 891,607 Reports(+4,043 from prior week) Through October 28th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 181.0 -9.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 -8.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.04 -.03%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.7 +.33%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.91 +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.2 +.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.29%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DHI)/5.15
• (EBIX)/.65
• (HBI)/.27
• (PFGC)/.80
• (RBLX)/-.36
• (SPTN)/.47
• (TTD)/.23
• (WEN)/.23
• (WWW)/.55
  

After the Close:

• (BGS)/.33
• (BYND)/-1.15
• (JAZZ)/4.67
• (PAAS)/-.06
• (RDFN)/-.80
• (RNG)/.51
• (RIVN)/-1.83
• (STE)/1.98
• (WYNN)/-1.01
• (ZIP)/.27
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -66,670 barrels versus a -3,115,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,300,000 barrels versus a -1,257,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -383,330 barrels versus a +427,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.42% versus a +1.7% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, China CPI report, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (OKTA) investor day and the (PSX) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.