Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                 

• Inflation-Focused Voters Defy Biden’s Bid to Change the Subject.  
• Fed Will Stick to the Task of Curbing Inflation, Barkin Says.  
• Xi’s New No. 2 Faces Challenge to Make China’s Economy Hum Again   
• UK Shop Sales Slow as Consumers Shift Spending Toward Essentials.
• UK Firms Set to Face New Requirements to Back Up Climate Claims.  
• US Quietly Asks Banks to Keep Some Ties With Russia, Even as Congress Balks.  
• Asian Stocks, US Futures Rise Before Midterms: Markets Wrap.
  
• Crude Oil Steadies as Supply Angst Vies With Slowdown Concerns.
• Banks Fall Dangerously Short on Pledges in New Net-Zero Study.
  
• Dollar Resumes Drop Amid Risk-On Trade Ahead of Inflation Data.  
• AmerisourceBergen Falls as Walgreens Cuts Stake by $1.6 Billion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden’s Closing Argument: Higher Energy Prices. “No more drilling,” says the president in response to a global warmist in New York.
• The 2022 Midterm Election Endangers Democrats, Not Democracy. The party is in the grip of an ideology that believes the entire constitutional construct is illegitimate. 
• Walgreens Unit Strikes Roughly $9 Billion Deal With Summit Health.
• Live Updates and Analysis on the Election.
• Covid’s Drag on the Workforce Proves Persistent. ‘It Sets Us Back.’.
• U.S. Seeks Billions in Carbon Credits to Wean Developing Countries Off Fossil Fuels5 min read.

Fox News:

• Entire midterm cycle summed up by top Dem’s 'clueless' inflation comment, critics say.
• Recordings of Dem's wife expose plan to implement unpopular agenda ‘quietly’.
• Netflix boss rips Dems, backs candidate who was Republican for years.

CNBC.com:

• Take-Two stock tumbles after it cuts outlook.
• Some of NY Gov. Kathy Hochul’s top donors privately sound alarm over GOP candidate Lee Zeldin surge.
• Here’s how much equity U.S. homeowners have lost since May.
• Elon Musk encourages independents to vote for a Republican Congress ahead of midterms.
  

MarketWatch:        

• Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say  
• ‘The housing market will continue to cool in the months ahead’: Home-buying sentiment hits all-time low, Fannie Mae says.
• Lyft stock sinks 15% despite price increases driving record revenue.

Zero Hedge:

• Top Dems Warn Party Seen As 'Extreme' And Driving Inflation.
• The Funeral Business Is Booming (And Not Because Of COVID).
• Inflation Was Always The Endgame. 
• Philly Home Depot Workers Reject Union In Lopsided Vote.
• Delaware Professor: Doubting Fetterman's Fitness Is Embracing Eugenics.
• Chinese Exports And Imports Unexpectedly Contract For The First Time Since May 2020.
• Top 10 House Races To Watch On Election Night.
• Twitter Daily User Growth Hits 'All-Time Highs' During First Week Under Musk.
• The Political Left's Reaction To Free Speech On Twitter Confirms Their Authoritarian Intent.
• US stocks gained amid China reopening rumors and ahead of the US midterm elections - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• ReBunked? Politico Warns Of 'Hackable' Voting Equipment.
• Maybe The Fed Too Was Trolled.
• Equity rebound continues on China re-opening optimism ahead of Midterms & CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Wall Street Agrees: A Red Wave In The Midterms Will Push Stocks Higher.
• As Midterms Loom, Stocks Rally, Everything Else Drops.
• Sell-side getting very "trading buy" bullish.

Newsmax:  

• WSJ Poll: Rising Support for GOP Among Black, Latino Voters.
• GOP's Karamo: Parents 'Demonized' by Dems.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• AG Garland’s DOJ Will “Monitor” Elections (Poll Challengers?) In Dem Cities…Michigan’s SOS Jocelyn Benson Tweets Support For Marxist Move.
• John Fetterman’s Campaign Sues to Allow Undated or Misdated Ballots Counted.
• Karine Jean-Pierre ‘Clarifies’ Joe Biden’s “No More Drilling” Comment to Climate Change Protester (VIDEO).
• “How Did We Twist Those Words?!” – Reporter Confronts Karine Jean-Pierre After Biden Promises to Shut Coal Plants Down (VIDEO).
• Democrat John Fetterman Tells Reporters to “Buckle Up” Because Ballot Counting Process Could Take “Several Days”.
• WHAT’S GOING ON? New Mexico Secretary of State Site Shows 16 Million Registered Voters Drop Overnight.
• Early Voting in Arizona Spells Doom for Democrats – Expect WINS FOR MAGA CANDIDATES – Lake, Blake, Hamadeh, Finchem! #GetOutAndVote.
• Joe Biden’s America: 1 in 4 Americans Skipping Thanksgiving Due to High Food Costs, Some Opting For Pizza Instead of Turkey.
• Desperate Stacey Abrams Already Making Excuses, Stokes ‘Voter Suppression’ Fears in Georgia Despite Record Turnout.
• Pfizer Develops RSV Vaccine for Pregnant Women to Immunize their Unborn Babies While in the Womb.

The Epoch Times:

• Former CCP Intelligence Chief Promoted to Head of China’s Political and Legal Affairs.
• Beijing Marathon Returns but China Sticks to ‘Zero-COVID’.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 887,564 Reports(+3,505 from prior week) Through October 21st, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 190.75 -21.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 93.75 -11.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.9 -.09%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 52.2 +.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.98 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.4 -.31%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CNHI)/.33
• (DBD)/.24
• (DD)/.79
• (ELAN)/.16
• (EXPD)/1.94
• (HAIN)/.09
• (IGT)/.31
• (RIDE)/-.31
• (NCLH)/-.69
• (SAGE)/-2.19
• (SPWR)/.08
  

After the Close:

• (DDD)/-.08
• (AFRM)/-.88
• (AKAM)/1.22
• (BIRD)/-.18
• (AMC)/-.25
• (DOX)/1.29
• (BLNK)/-.47
• (IAC)/-.46
• (NWSA)/.13
• (OXY)/2.45
• (SFM)/.51
• (DIS)/.56
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 91.4 versus 92.1 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Baird Industrial Conference, Morgan Stanley Industrial Conference, (ZM) investor day, (NUE) investor day, (NDAQ) investor day and the Morgan Stanley Chemicals/Ag/Packaging Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.