Stocks Finish Lower on Cryptocurrency Contagion Fears, China Hard-Landing Worries, Dollar Strength, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.7 -1.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .91%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.7 -.23%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.2 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 -3.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -6.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.37 +47.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.8 -.36%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.26 +1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 403.0 -18.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.99 +.33% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 356.73 -1.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 156.35 +3.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 253.57 -.63%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.58 -.54%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 43.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -51.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 130.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.19 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.15 -.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.15% -8.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -72.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 113.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.8 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.7 -3.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 -.7 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.90 -.07:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch., P/E 17.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.71 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.18% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.60% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +7.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.0%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 44.7%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.7%(-1.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long