Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Three Million UK Households Owe More as Energy Debt Deepens.  
• UK Pay Rises Aren’t Keeping Up With Inflation.  
• Xi’s Crackdowns Drive Chinese Billionaires to Booming Singapore.
• Apple Prepares to Get Made-in-US Chips in Pivot From Asia.
• Poland Says Russian-Made Rocket Caused Blast Near Ukraine Border.  
• Ukraine Latest: Poland Says Russian-Made Missile Hit Village.  
• NATO’s Crucial Question: Was Poland Missile Strike Deliberate?   
• Stocks Fall, Dollar Steadies on Rocky Geopolitics: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Extends Gain After Poland Struck by Russian-Made Missile.  
• Potential Biden Plan to Stock Up On Diesel May Bring Price Surge.
• Tesla Tells US of New Fatal Crashes Involving Automated Driving.    
• Estee Lauder to Buy Designer Brand Tom Ford in $2.8 Billion Deal.  
• Taxi Fares Are Going Up 23% in New York City.
• Fed Officials See More Hikes Needed Though News on Prices Better.
• Mortgage Rates Could Tank Home Prices by 20%, Fed Study Finds.

Wall Street Journal:

• The New Woke Discrimination Demands a New Law. Expand the Civil Rights Act to protect employees from being fired for their political beliefs.
• GOP Nears House Control; McCarthy Gets Party Backing in Speaker Bid.
• Missile Hits Polish Territory Near Ukrainian Border.
• U.S. Struggles to Wean Itself From Chinese Solar Power.
• Judge Strikes Down Policy Used to Expel Migrants.
• Tech Firms Dump Office Space as They Downsize.
• Lack of Bond Buyers Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher.

Fox News:

• Hunter Biden interview goes south after host gets honest about what happens ‘behind the scenes’.
• Financial ties between scandal-plagued crypto king and Pelosi's likely successor.
• How a recount in Arizona's gubernatorial race might play out.

CNBC.com:

• From $32 billion to criminal investigations: How Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire vanished overnight.
• Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges, Fed report says.
• Microsoft, Meta and others face rising drought risk to their data centers.
• Electric vehicles are less reliable because of newer technologies, Consumer Reports finds.
  

MarketWatch:                  

• Icahn loads up on Twitter, oil and gas in third quarter, dumps Welbilt.
• Even JPMorgan’s bullish strategist Kolanovic says markets are getting ahead of themselves. Here’s what he and a Goldman strategist say to do now.  
• House prices will fall in 2023, but affordability will be at its worst since 1985, says Capital Economics.
  
• Credit-card balances just experienced the biggest annual jump in more than 20 years, Fed says.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Unveils $37BN More In Emergency Ukraine Aid On Heels Of Polish Border 'Attack'.
• Relationship Among FTX, Ukraine, And Democrats Sparks Speculation. 
• Here Come "Programmable Dollars": New York Fed And 12 Banking Giants Launch Digital Dollar Test. 
• Biden On Democrats' Effort To Codify Roe v. Wade: 'I Don’t Think There’s Enough Votes'. 
• NBC Pushes 'Tripledemic' Fear Mongering – Claims Children At Risk During The Holidays.
• Poland's President Says "No Evidence" Who Fired On Border Village.
• US, Japan To Start Large-Scale War Games On Heels Of Xi-Biden Meeting.
• "Invasion Clause" Triggered In Texas As Migrants Overwhelm Border.
• Planned Amazon Layoffs Could Hamper E-Commerce, Logistics.
• Getting there (soon).
• Nickel Jumps As Tesla-Backed Miner Sparks Supply Fears.
• PPI optimism was juxtaposed with Polish casualties near the Ukraine border - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Supply Hell: Wait Times For Tesla Model 3 And Model Y Just Evaporated Down To One Week, At Minimum.
• Softer PPI party tempered by Polish deaths on Ukraine border - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Americans To See Highest Thanksgiving Gasoline Prices Ever.
• Spoos Shake Off Rollercoaster Session, "Article 5" Panic, To Close Above 4000.
• FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Faces 'Trip' For Questioning In US.

Newsmax:  

• Rick Scott Challenges McConnell to Lead Senate GOP. 
• GOP Votes McCarthy 188-31 in First Step to Be Speaker.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• McConnell’s Approval Sinks To New Low In New Poll.
• Hunter Biden Interview Goes Sideways After Caller Asks About Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s Mega Donations to Democrat Party (AUDIO).
• Breaking: House GOP Votes in Liberal RINO Tom Emmer for House Whip Who Was in Charge of Electing Republicans This Cycle for NRCC.
• Ditch Mitch? Florida Senator Rick Scott Announces Challenge to GOP Senate Leader McConnell.
• G20 Panel Calls for a Global Digital Health Certificate Acknowledged by WHO to Track Vaccination Status (VIDEO).
• Kari Lake Speaks Out On Election: “Arizonans Know BS When They See It”.
• Texas Gov. Abbott Declares Invasion on Border; Invokes US and Texas Constitutions to Deploy Guard Troops to Repel Illegal Immigrants.
• “The World Will Look Differently After We Have Gone Through This Transition” – WEF’s Klaus Schwab on the Great Reset to World Leaders at G20 Summit (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: FTX Donations to Democrats from Foreign Entities Like Ukraine Are in Violation of Executive Order 13848 Signed by President Trump and Biden.

The Epoch Times:

• Fauci’s Pandemic Leadership Needs to Be Investigated: Dr. Scott Atlas.

Twitter: 

• @MrAndyNgo - The Taliban has ordered Afghan judges to impose Sharia punishments in line with Islamic teachings that include public amputations and stoning.
• @bennyjohnson - Citadel CEO Ken Griffin: "On the balance sheet of FTX is a line called 'Trump lose' and Sam was the second biggest donor to Democratic candidates." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 894,850 Reports(+3,243 from prior week) Through November 4th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.75 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.25 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.51 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.6 -.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.73 + basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.94 +.74%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.13%.

• S&P 500 futures -.39%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.47%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (LOW)/3.09
• (ONON)/.11
• (TGT)/2.18
• (TJX)/.80
  

After the Close:

• (BBWI)/.20
• (CSCO)/.84
• (CPRT)/.56
• (HP)/.48
• (HI)/1.01
• (KLIC)/.98
• (NVDA)/.70
• (SONO)/-.33
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus unch. in Sept.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in Sept.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -1.2% decline in Sept.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -1.2% decline in Sept.
• The Import Price Index YoY for Oct. is estimated to rise +4.1% versus a +6.0% gain in Sept.
  
• The Export Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.8% decline in Sept.
• The Export Price Index YoY for Oct. is estimated to rise +7.1% versus a +9.5% gain in Sept.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• Capacity Utilization for Oct. is estimated to rise to 80.4% versus 80.3% in Sept.
• Manufacturing Production for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in Aug.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 36.0 versus 38.0 in Oct.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,240,000 barrels versus a +3,925,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +60,000 barrels versus a -900,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -640,000 barrels versus a -521,000 barrel decline the prior week. Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.26% versus a +1.5% gain prior.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, UK PPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, 20Y T-Bond auction, BofA Consumer/Retail Conference, BofA Energy Conference, (JLL) investor briefing, (ROK) investor meeting and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Communications Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by healthcare and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.