Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• The Waltons: World’s Richest Family Trims Exposure to Emerging Markets.
• PwC Chairman Says Firms Considering Need to Restructure in China.  
• Japan’s Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks on Hit From Weak Yen.
  
• RBA Prepared to Pause or Return to Outsized Hikes, Minutes Show.   
• Surge in Sexual Diseases Adds to Strain on UK Health Service.  
• Biden and Xi Finally Met at the G-20 Summit in Bali. Here Are the Key Takeaways.
  
• What If Everything Goes Wrong At the Same Time?   
• Asian Stocks Eke Out Gains Before China Data: Markets Wrap.   
• Oil Extends Losses With Demand Fears Overshadowing Tight Supply.
• Bankman-Fried’s Magic Money Box Enriched Vast Crypto Network.  
• From Bad to Worse? Next Year’s Economic Risks Are Already Here. 
• Biden’s Student Debt Relief Plan Is Blocked Indefinitely by Court.
• FTX Fiasco Sparks Billions of Dollars of Outflows From Exchanges.
• Binance’s Billionaire CEO Casts Himself as Crypto’s New Savior.  
• Amazon, Meta Join Ranks of Tech Companies Slashing Thousands of Jobs.
• Soaring US Mortgage Rates Are Discouraging Americans From Moving.
• Easing Rates Won’t Be Enough to Revive Big Tech, Citigroup Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• How Meth Worsened the Fentanyl Crisis. ‘We Are in a Different World.’.
• Amazon Set to Lay Off Thousands of Corporate Workers.
• The Risky Business of Sam Bankman-Fried.
• Major Miami Beach Real-Estate Projects Nixed by Voters.
• Your Boss Is Over Hybrid Work. Here’s How to Keep Your Flexibility.

CNBC.com:

• Washington lobbyists sever ties with FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried after crypto exchange implodes.
• Crypto.com CEO downplays FTX contagion fears, says he’ll prove naysayers wrong as withdrawals rise.
• Flu hospitalizations are surging in the U.S. These states are the hardest hit right now.
  

MarketWatch:                

• If Sam Bankman-Fried committed fraud, he’ll face the music in the U.S, legal experts say.
  
• The Dow is outperforming, which could be a sign that the latest stock-market rally will flame out.
  
• Think his stock-market call is bearish? Trading pioneer Peterffy awaits a steeper, 25% bitcoin plunge amid FTX scandal.  
• Berkshire Hathaway discloses stakes in TSMC, Jefferies, Louisiana-Pacific, sending those stocks higher.  
• Corporate borrowers risk this ‘biggest shock’ in more than three decades, warns Goldman Sachs.  
• Former Point72 fund manager caught up in FTX collapse: ‘I’m pretty disgusted with the space as a whole’.  
• Americans have not been this worried about layoffs since April 2020 — and they also see no immediate end to rising prices.
•  Realtors expect ‘vulnerable’ commercial real-estate prices to drop in 2023 — as people embrace hybrid work

Zero Hedge:

• Alameda Frontran Crypto Tokens Ahead Of New Listings On FTX.
• Trump Says McConnell 'Blew The Midterms'.
• US Health System Cash Reserves Plummet.
• When Protecting Criminals’ Rights Comes At The Expense Of Victims.
• Life after the furious short squeeze.
• Tech Breakthrough Could Slash Fertilizer Emissions.
• Ukraine Backs UN Vote To Send Israel To International Court While Begging For Arms.
• Russia Price Cap Could Threaten India's Oil Supplies.
• FedEx Freight To Begin Driver Furloughs Next Month.
• US stocks were lower on Monday after unwinding NY morning strength; Biden met with Xi - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Russians With Dual Citizenship Can Now Be Drafted, New Putin Decree Says.
• 'Dangerous': Expert Pans Move To Donate Guns, Armored Vehicles To Pro-Beijing Solomons Leader.
• Technical Rally Runs Out Of Gas Despite Dovish Drawl From Fed's #2.
• Stocks snap rally streak amid mixed Fed Speak and rising inflation expectations - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Zelensky Visits Kherson, Hailing It As "The Beginning Of The End Of The War".

Newsmax:   

• Dick Morris: McConnell, Not Trump, Hurt GOP in Midterms.
• Report: Most Say Cheating Will Affect Election Results.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• MORE ARIZONA DATA: Only 17% of Maricopa Election Day Voters Were Democrat, Only 23% of Primary Election Day Voters Were Democrat — But Democrats Are Winning 50% of Delayed Election Day Totals? IMPOSSIBLE!
• Coincidence? Zelensky Calls for Peace Just Days After FTX Is Caught Funneling Millions of Ukrainian Aide Dollars to US Democrats.
• Completely Normal: TV Presenters in Brazil and Argentina Collapse During Live Broadcasts (VIDEO).
• THE COVERUP BEGINS: Investigators at DOJ’s Corrupt Southern District of New York Investigating FTX.
• Sen. Cotton Demands Answers on Foreign TikTok Employees in the US.
• World Economic Forum Scrubs FTX Page from Its Website – CEO Was a Speaker at Davos.
• ARIZONA VOTERS: Check Your Ballot Status Now In Case It Needs To Be CURED – Deadline Is Wednesday.
• GP’s Jim Hoft Joins The War Room with Steve Bannon to Discuss the IMPOSSIBLE Arizona Election Results (VIDEO).
• Jeff Bezos to Give Away Most of his $124 Billion Fortune to Charities Fighting Against "Climate Change" (VIDEO). 
• Steve Bannon Delivers Rallying Cry to American Patriots to Save the Republic Following Proposterous Midterms (VIDEO).
• Arizona State Senator Wendy Rogers Joins Charlie Kirk Show To Respond To Sunday Night Ballot Drop (VIDEO).
• Massive Brazil Election Protests Continue – Crooks from Brazil Sneek Off to New York, Are Greeted by Protesters. 
• US Team Redesigns Crest with LGBTQ+ Rainbow Stripes Ahead of World Cup in Qatar.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Shortens Quarantines, Continues ‘Zero-COVID’ Policy.
• China Has Become a Big Prison, Residents Under Surveillance by Property Managers.
• CCP to Focus on War, Military Expert: Be Wary of Reappearance of Nazism.

Twitter: 

• @NextNewsNetwork - Biden makes a statement that should chill every red blooded American to their core, when...
• @TomFitton - And just like that we're "allowed" to ask questions about the safety of the covid vaccines. 
• @DrEliDavid - Sorry we called you anti-vaxxers, caused you to lose your jobs, and had your kids thrown out of college. It turns out you were right. (video)
  

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 894,850 Reports(+3,243 from prior week) Through November 4th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.75 -8.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.0 +1.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.1 -.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.73 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.2 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.

• S&P 500 futures +.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ARMK)/.49
• (BERY)/2.15
• (ENR)/.79
• (HD)/4.12
• (DNUT)/.04
• (SE)/-.95
• (WMT)/1.32
  

After the Close:

• (AAP)/3.34

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated at -6.0 versus -9.1 in Oct.
• PPI Final Demand MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
• PPI Final Demand YoY for Oct. is estimated to rise +8.3% versus an +8.5% gain in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Eurozone GDP report, China Retail Sales report, weekly US retail sales reports, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Nov., Jefferies Healthcare Conference, RBC Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Stifel Healthcare Conference, Stephens Investment Conference, Wolfe Healthcare Conference, (AFL) Analysts Briefing, (PLNT) investor day, (LMND) investor day and the Needham Networking/Communications/Security Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by healthcare and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.