Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                       

• COP27 Gets Chaotic With Mysterious Draft Text, Elusive President.
• Asian Stocks Edge Higher Amid Hawkish Fed Rhetoric: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Poised for Second Weekly Decline on Gloomy Demand Outlook.
• FTX Latest: Bankman-Fried Faces Grilling by Lawmakers He Backed.
  
• Bankman-Fried Turns Toxic in Congress Even Among Those He Backed.
• Musk ‘Hardcore’ Ultimatum Sparks Exodus, Leaving Twitter at Risk.
  
• Mortgage Market Upheaval Spurs $17 Billion in Paper Losses for Banks.
• Elizabeth Holmes Faces Years in Prison for Her Crimes in Theranos Collapse.  
• Record Options Trading Shows Jitters Before $2 Trillion ‘OpEx’.  
• Farmers Face Worry With Risk of US Rail Strike If Deal Fails.  
• Dollar Has Room to Strengthen in Bumpy Ride Ahead, Goldman Says.
• Bullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.K. Unveils Largest Tax Increases and Spending Cuts in a Decade
• Sam Bankman-Fried Becomes an ESG Truth-Teller. The fallen wizard of crypto confesses to phony virtue-signaling.
• The Best and Worst Airports.
• FTX Auditors Doubled as Crypto Industry Cheerleaders.

Fox News:

• Reactions pour in after Pelosi says she is stepping down from leadership role.
• Musk triggers liberals with email urging employees to 'work'.

CNBC.com:

• The most damning details in the new FTX report.
• Binance exec says ‘it was like a bomb went off’ at FTX, compares Bankman-Fried to Madoff and Holmes.
• Never seen ‘such a complete failure’ of corporate controls, says new FTX CEO who also oversaw Enron bankruptcy.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Live Nation, Gap, Ross Stores, Palo Alto and more.
  

MarketWatch:                 

• 10 crazy things detailed in FTX’s bankruptcy filing: ‘This situation is unprecedented’.  
• This is the chart that rattled U.S. financial markets Thursday.
  
• Fed must keep raising rates until it is certain inflation has stopped climbing, Kashkari says.
  
• Amazon CEO says more layoffs are coming in 2023.  
• AT&T exec says ‘it’s only a matter of time’ before people ‘really’ feel inflation.  
• A meltdown in crypto is taking shape and it’s not just FTX’s fault.  
• Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people not to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

Zero Hedge:

• "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This".
• "Oops": Fired Facebook Employees Took Bribes To Hijack User Accounts.
• PA House Judiciary Committee Moved To Impeach Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.
• Dwindling US Cattle Herd Implies Supermarket Beef Prices May Rise Even More.
• NYC Taxi Bust Over? Drivers Get First Price Hike Since 2012, Medallion Values Bottom.
• "Red Cup Rebellion" To Disrupt Starbucks Stores As Baristas Go On Strike.
• The Mid-Terms: The Hunger Gaming Of America.
• Japan Weighs Raising Taxes On EVs With "Higher Output Motors".
• Democrats' Mail-In Voting Strategy Outmaneuvered Republicans In Every Pennsylvania County.
• COP27 Climate Virtue-Signaling Boondoggle Ends In Failure, Leaves Out Fossil Fuel Pledge.
• Peter Schiff: We're In The Eye Of The Inflation Hurricane.
• Potential Nationwide US Rail Strike May Spark Chaos Ahead Of Christmas.
• Things to ponder as we wait for direction.
• Pentagon Fails 5th Consecutive Audit Amid Ukraine Oversight Concerns.
• US stocks were ultimately lower on Thursday alongside Treasuries which both supported the dollar - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open. 
• Crypto Fraud Exposes Woke Capitalism As A Scam.
• Stocks and Bonds fall while Dollar prospers amid flurry of Fed speak - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• New York Declares State Of Emergency Ahead Of Snowmageddon.
• Stocks & Bonds Sink As Fed's Bullard Hammers "Pivot" Hopes.

Newsmax: 

• Judge Blocks DeSantis' 'Stop Woke' Law to Curb College CRT.
• Arizona's Kari Lake: 'I'm Still in This Fight'.
  
• Sen. Cruz: Biden's Role in Son's Actions Must be Probed.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Jon Voight’s Post-Midterm Message: “Wake Up America”.
• Disgraced FTX Founder Donated To Six RINOs Who Voted To Impeach Trump.
• MUST SEE: Man Unloads on Maricopa County Board of Supervisors ‘You Are the Cancer Tearing This Nation Apart’.
• Sen. Hawley Criticizes Sec. Mayorkas for Colluding with Big Tech to Treat Americans as if They’re Threats to Homeland Security (VIDEO).
• Mar-a-Lago Raid Story Falls Apart After Midterms, New Leak to WaPo Reveals Trump Took White House Records as ‘Mementos’.
• Corrupt Wisconsin Republican Assembly Majority Caucus Kicks out Election Integrity Champion Janel Brandtjen.
• UK Economy in Freefall, Highest Taxes Since WWII, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt Delivers Somber Economic Speech.
• Don’t Be Impressed by This: PA AG Josh Shapiro Arrests Democrat Political Consultant For Voter Fraud in City Elections in 2019 – Ignores 2020 and 2022.
• Jim Jordan Says House Republicans Will Expose Biden’s Corrupt DOJ/FBI’s Involvement in Covering Up Hunter Biden’s Laptop From Hell (VIDEO).
• Researchers In Swing States Secretly Monitored What Big Tech Showed Voters – “Blatant Manipulation”.

DefenseNews:

• White House requests $38 billion more in Ukraine aid.

The Blaze:

• Collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX had ties to Ukrainian government, WEF, and top Biden adviser. Curiously, the Ukrainian government launched a cryptocurrency donation website in March that was backed by FTX. CoinDesk reported in March, "'Aid for Ukraine,' which has the backing of crypto exchange FTX, staking platform Everstake, and Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, will route donated crypto to the National Bank of Ukraine, Everstake’s Head of Growth Vlad Likhuta told CoinDesk. Ukraine’s crypto-savvy Ministry of Digital Transformation is also involved."

Axios:

• Bankman-Fried spent millions on Dem campaigns. It's unclear where Bankman-Fried's money came from. Forensic accountants and bankruptcy courts are on the case, but it could take months to untangle FTX's web of comingled funds. Bankman-Fried spent around $37 million during the last election cycle, almost all of which went to boosting Democratic candidates and causes. That made him the party's second-largest donor, according to OpenSecrets, and the sixth largest overall.

The Epoch Times:

• Lawmakers Want to Ban Chinese Companies From Buying US Farmland Due to ‘National Security’ Threat. 
  
• ‘This Is an Investigation of Joe Biden’: House Republicans Allege Biden Was Involved in Hunter’s Business Dealings.
• China’s Secret Police Station in NYC ‘Violates Sovereignty’ of US: FBI Director.

Twitter: 

• @JackPosobiec - Top Maricopa County election official is donor to far-left ‘resistance group’ PatriotTakes.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 894,850 Reports(+3,243 from prior week) Through November 4th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.25 +6.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.0 +5.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.3 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.7 +.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.82 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 +.18%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.75%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BKE)/1.19
• (FL)/1.12
• (JD)/4.46
• (SPB)/.34
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 4.4M versus 4.71M in Sept.
• The Leading Index for Oct. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.4% decline in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.