Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Increasingly Divisive Political Rhetoric, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.4 +2.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.59%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.0 -2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.20 -.59%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.5 -.32%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 52.1 +.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +19.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 +1.1%
  • NYSE Arms .85 +4.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.3 -1.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 353.92 +.97%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 476.0 +5.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 122.5 +1.9% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 339.55 +2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 216.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 218.1 -5.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 280.19 -1.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.87 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 40.0 basis points +2.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 32.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -53.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  165.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 131.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.11 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.63 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.10% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -46.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 135.90 euros/megawatt-hour +17.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.5 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.9 -9.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -.6 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.04 +.05:  Growth Rate +12.1% -.8 percentage point, P/E 16.7 +.1 point
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.99 +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.60% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.09% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for February 1st FOMC meeting: 44.0%(-3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 41.0%(+9.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 77 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.4%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

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